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Analysts divided on Apple: Cantor calls it a 'top pick,' Wells Fargo downgrades citing margins - Page 2

post #41 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by wakefinance View Post

Hindsight is 20/20.  If you have connections providing information from deep within the supply chain and you're better at deciphering the information then by all means tell us about what is in store for Apple in 2014.

That's the point. You can't determine anything from one particular data point. So why even try?
post #42 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

 

lol, no.

 

Then why were they made free if not to compete with other free products?  Companies don't sacrifice revenues without cause.

 

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

 

Except thousands of schools still use overhead projectors because they’re the simplest non-idiotic way to present something interactive.

 

I believe he/she was referring to film strips and projectors, not overhead projectors.

post #43 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post


That's the point. You can't determine anything from one particular data point. So why even try?

 

Because a hazy outlook is better than no outlook.

post #44 of 100
Originally Posted by wakefinance View Post

Then why were they made free

 

Because they weren’t, first of all.

 

I believe he/she was referring to film strips and projectors, not overhead projectors.

 

Also still used.

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post #45 of 100
In an age of Netflix and Amazon valuations and high-frequency trading, why is there still a need for stock analysts? Carl Icahn seems to be able to move a stock with 120 characters, so what good are charts, valuation metrics, etc? The gap between a company's fundamentals and its stock price seems absurd.

I am glad to have been with AAPL (and Apple) long enough to be realizing a healthy return. Hey, Tim Cook's gang actually makes money!
post #46 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by wakefinance View Post
 

 

http://googleenterprise.blogspot.ca/2013/02/a-look-back-at-2012-expansion-of.html

 

2,000 public school systems and private schools have adopted Chromebooks.  That was last February.  2,000 is surely a drop in the bucket, but the rate is what should be examined.  That number was a 100% increase from the number 3 months prior.

 

Yes, yes, Apple is doomed. Chromebook is the savior of the world that will finally drive a wooden stake through the heart of Apple. We’ve heard your ilk’s predictions for over thirty years and none of them have come anywhere near being true. But this time is different, right? Apple MUST develop a similar, cheap, barely functioning, entirely web based, no ecosystem, no apps lump of hardware in order to stay alive. I mean, after all, Google’s crystal ball is vastly superior to Apple’s. They KNOW the future and it is Chromebook!

post #47 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by wakefinance View Post

Some people have no clue how investment managers make money. All they know is that they are generally wealthy and assume that something nefarious must be happening. Little do they know that management fees are only taken when managers are making money for their clients too.

Ummm, duh, many Wall Street firms make their biggest money on "prop" (proprietary) trading. They use their own (the firm's) money for this, and Wall Street is absolutely flooded these days with excess unobligated cash (because of the the Fed's QE program). These firms' proprietary traders often (usually?) are placing bets that are the exact opposite of the bets being made in the name of the firm's regular investors by the "fund manager" guy at the next desk. If funds as a whole underperform the market, who the heck is making all the money? The banks, prop traders, and hedge funds, that's who.

This is all legal of course. These in-house prop traders are very "invested" in misinformed analysts' upgrades and downgrades to a stock, and may even be "encouraging" analysts like Wells Fargo's to make headlines like today's. A 1% swing like today's, if it can be reasonably predicted by a prop trader who is using the right derivatives, can easily earn him a 100% return in a day.

Jon

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post #48 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post
 

 

Because they weren’t, first of all.

 

http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2013/10/23Apple-Introduces-Next-Generation-iWork-and-iLife-Apps-for-OS-X-and-iOS.html

 

http://www.theverge.com/2013/10/29/5042880/apple-iwork-2013-refresh-complaints

 

http://www.nbcnews.com/technology/ilife-iwork-free-latest-ios-devices-are-free-your-old-8C11515461

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

 

Also still used.

 

The last time I recall a teacher playing a video for us using a film strip was the early 90s in my first grade class.  Or were you referring to 3rd world countries?

post #49 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by wakefinance View Post

Because a hazy outlook is better than no outlook.

Nope. That's like saying a lie is better than no response.
Quote:
Originally Posted by wakefinance View Post

Then why were they made free if not to compete with other free products?  Companies don't sacrifice revenues without cause.

Apple sells hardware. They use software to sell hardware.
post #50 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post
 

 

Yes, yes, Apple is doomed. Chromebook is the savior of the world that will finally drive a wooden stake through the heart of Apple. We’ve heard your ilk’s predictions for over thirty years and none of them have come anywhere near being true. But this time is different, right? Apple MUST develop a similar, cheap, barely functioning, entirely web based, no ecosystem, no apps lump of hardware in order to stay alive. I mean, after all, Google’s crystal ball is vastly superior to Apple’s. They KNOW the future and it is Chromebook!

 

You're putting a lot of words in my mouth.  Apple isn't doomed and I don't want them to be.  But facts and events are completely unrelated to my wishes or yours, so I don't know why you're trying to make that connection anyway.

post #51 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post


Nope. That's like saying a lie is better than no response.

 

That's not equivalent.  A lie is intentionally misleading.  Analyst expectations are designed to be informative, but the people who actually use them understand that nothing is certain and that there is always risk involved in making predictions.

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post

Apple sells hardware. They use software to sell hardware.

 

Software can sell hardware even when it costs money, so that's not a valid explanation of the change in pricing from not free to free.

post #52 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by JONOROM View Post


Ummm, duh, many Wall Street firms make their biggest money on "prop" (proprietary) trading. They use their own (the firm's) money for this, and Wall Street is absolutely flooded these days with excess unobligated cash (because of the the Fed's QE program). These firms' proprietary traders often (usually?) are placing bets that are the exact opposite of the bets being made in the name of the firm's regular investors by the "fund manager" guy at the next desk. If funds as a whole underperform the market, who the heck is making all the money? The banks, prop traders, and hedge funds, that's who.

This is all legal of course. These in-house prop traders are very "invested" in misinformed analysts' upgrades and downgrades to a stock, and may even be "encouraging" analysts like Wells Fargo's to make headlines like today's. A 1% swing like today's, if it can be reasonably predicted by a prop trader who is using the right derivatives, can easily earn him a 100% return in a day.

Jon

 

I think you're trying to get at the concept of hedging but you're not hitting the mark.  Every fund is risk-hedged on its own in some way.  Firms have different funds invested in different ways to suit different investor needs.  Firms want their own money to do just as well as their clients' money.  In fact they would prefer their clients' do better if they had the explicit choice because most of their assets are invested by outsiders.

post #53 of 100

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post #54 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post
 

 

Free for new devices, not free on the Mac.

 

It would have been much easier if you had just agreed with me the first time instead of trying to shoot down something simply because it didn't come from your keyboard.

post #55 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post
 

 

Free for new devices, not free on the Mac.

 

 

Also you never answered my question.

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by wakefinance View Post
 

 

Then why were they made free if not to compete with other free products?  Companies don't sacrifice revenues without cause.

 

 

post #56 of 100
Originally Posted by wakefinance View Post

It would have been much easier if you had just agreed with me the first time

 

Why? You’re wrong.

 

Originally Posted by wakefinance View Post
Also you never answered my question.


Because it’s based on a faulty premise.

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post #57 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post
 

 

Why? You’re wrong.

 

You literally just said that they were henceforth free.  I asked you why they were made free.  I could have worded my question to say, "Why, henceforth, shall iWork be free with the purchase of a Mac."  Same question.

post #58 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by JONOROM View Post

Ummm, duh, many Wall Street firms make their biggest money on "prop" (proprietary) trading. They use their own (the firm's) money for this, and Wall Street is absolutely flooded these days with excess unobligated cash (because of the the Fed's QE program). These firms' proprietary traders often (usually?) are placing bets that are the exact opposite of the bets being made in the name of the firm's regular investors by the "fund manager" guy at the next desk. If funds as a whole underperform the market, who the heck is making all the money? The banks, prop traders, and hedge funds, that's who.

This is all legal of course. These in-house prop traders are very "invested" in misinformed analysts' upgrades and downgrades to a stock, and may even be "encouraging" analysts like Wells Fargo's to make headlines like today's. A 1% swing like today's, if it can be reasonably predicted by a prop trader who is using the right derivatives, can easily earn him a 100% return in a day.

Jon

Most informed post of the day.

Also, Ben Bernanke and most of Congress should be in prison for what they've done to this country.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #59 of 100
Originally Posted by wakefinance View Post

Same question.

 

That’s really sad.

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post #60 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

That’s really sad.

No your responses are what is sad. Disregard whatever you think my premise is. Tell me why Apple made iWork free.
post #61 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by wakefinance View Post

I think you're trying to get at the concept of hedging but you're not hitting the mark.  Every fund is risk-hedged on its own in some way.  Firms have different funds invested in different ways to suit different investor needs.  Firms want their own money to do just as well as their clients' money.  In fact they would prefer their clients' do better if they had the explicit choice because most of their assets are invested by outsiders.

Sorry for your confusion. I know quite a lot about hedging and proprietary trading (and how they are completely different), and you obviously don't.

To respond to your other point, if you (let's imagine you are a Wall Street firm) have $10B of client money to invest upon which you make 10% in management fees, and $1B of the firm's money to invest upon which you retain 100% of the earnings, on which fund (client or proprietary) are you going to employ your skilled traders and most sophisticated techniques?

Edit: The answer, from personal experience, is that the skilled traders and sophisticated techniques will be deployed for your proprietary trading.

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post #62 of 100
Banks (like Wells Fargo) are the ones to blame for the last recession. So why would anyone believe them when it comes to financial advise.
post #63 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by JONOROM View Post

Sorry for your confusion. I know quite a lot about hedging and proprietary trading (and how they are completely different), and you obviously don't.

To respond to your other point, if you (let's imagine you are a Wall Street firm) have $10B of client money to invest upon which you make 10% in management fees, and $1B of the firm's money to invest upon which you retain 100% of the earnings, on which fund (client or proprietary) are you going to employ your skilled traders and most sophisticated techniques?

Edit: The answer, from personal experience, is that the skilled traders and sophisticated techniques will be deployed for your proprietary trading.

I would wager I know as much as you do.

As for your question, I agree that a bank would use more complex trading strategies on a proprietary fund. As with hedge funds, a fund closed to the public will employ techniques that regular investors may neither understand nor be comfortable with. Where I disagree with you is that banks make more money from their private investments.
post #64 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by JONOROM View Post


Sorry for your confusion. I know quite a lot about hedging and proprietary trading (and how they are completely different), and you obviously don't.

To respond to your other point, if you (let's imagine you are a Wall Street firm) have $10B of client money to invest upon which you make 10% in management fees, and $1B of the firm's money to invest upon which you retain 100% of the earnings, on which fund (client or proprietary) are you going to employ your skilled traders and most sophisticated techniques?

Edit: The answer, from personal experience, is that the skilled traders and sophisticated techniques will be deployed for your proprietary trading.

 

So... as was mentioned earlier, the analysts hits and misses don't really affect the bulk of invested money (ie. pension plans). The hits and misses are used more for prop trading... a fancy name for day trading and swing trading.

na na na na na...
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post #65 of 100
Originally Posted by wakefinance View Post
Tell me why Apple made iWork free.
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Because they weren’t, first of all.

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post #66 of 100
 
Originally Posted by Constable Odo View Post ...... I'm only referring to the stock and how that money is being managed.  Apple should be able to do both if other, lesser companies can manage to do both. 
 

 

Maybe that's why those "other, lesser companies" are just that .... lesser. Apple's strength is remaining true to it's philosophy, not trying to please everyone, all of the time, on everything. Apple did not get to the lofty heights where it finds itself at today by not knowing what its doing.

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post #67 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by wakefinance View Post

I would wager I know as much as you do.

As for your question, I agree that a bank would use more complex trading strategies on a proprietary fund. As with hedge funds, a fund closed to the public will employ techniques that regular investors may neither understand nor be comfortable with. Where I disagree with you is that banks make more money from their private investments.

We are not in complete disagreement. Last year 18% of JPMorgan's gross profits came from proprietary trading or similar investment strategies. This is not the majority of their income of course. Nevertheless, I assert that prop funds earn higher rates of return than even mixed prop/customer funds, never mind funds where the firm has very little stake except a management fee.

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post #68 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by JONOROM View Post

We are not in complete disagreement. Last year 18% of JPMorgan's gross profits came from proprietary trading or similar investment strategies. This is not the majority of their income of course. Nevertheless, I assert that prop funds earn higher rates of return than even mixed prop/customer funds, never mind funds where the firm has very little stake except a management fee.

If you're talking about rates of return then absolutely, yes, a public fund will likely never outperform a proprietary one.
post #69 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post


I'll take that as your tacit acknowledgement of the fact that you once again said something indefensible and, instead of admitting your fallacy and making a valid assertion supported by logic or fact, attempted to divert attention to another subject. What baffles me is that you didn't even have to say I was right about anything. I asked for an explanation of something that happened. I hope you manage conversations better in real life.
post #70 of 100
Unfortunately, it is very much within the realm of possibility that schools will adopt Chromebooks. As a student, it's blatantly obvious that schools (or at least mine) don't care about specs, but rather something cheap enough to get basics done.
post #71 of 100
Originally Posted by wakefinance View Post
I'll take that as your tacit acknowledgement of the fact that you once again said something indefensible and, instead of admitting your fallacy and making a valid assertion supported by logic or fact, attempted to divert attention to another subject. 

 

It’s explicitly talking about the primary and only subject. iWork is not free. What is wrong with you?

 
What baffles me is that you didn't even have to say I was right about anything.

 

That’s a relief; you weren’t.

 
I asked for an explanation of something that happened.

 

Except it didn’t happen.

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post #72 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by wakefinance View Post

That's not equivalent.  A lie is intentionally misleading.  Analyst expectations are designed to be informative, but the people who actually use them understand that nothing is certain and that there is always risk involved in making predictions.


Software can sell hardware even when it costs money, so that's not a valid explanation of the change in pricing from not free to free.

1. It's equivalent to analyst guesses at the supply chain.
2. Free with a purchase of a new machine. If Apple really wanted to compete with the freebies, they would have release it free for all Macs. It's just another incentive to buy a Mac.
post #73 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

It’s explicitly talking about the primary and only subject. iWork is not free. What is wrong with you?

That’s a relief; you weren’t.

Except it didn’t happen.



?
post #74 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post
 

 

It’s explicitly talking about the primary and only subject. iWork is not free. What is wrong with you?

 

That’s a relief; you weren’t.

 

Except it didn’t happen.

 

iWork is free with every Mac purchased from now until eternity.  Do I need to post the links again?  What about the one directly from Apple's website?

 

http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2013/10/23Apple-Introduces-Next-Generation-iWork-and-iLife-Apps-for-OS-X-and-iOS.html

 

With the fact in mind that from now until our sun swallows the Earth in a fiery death, iWork will be included for free on Macs but will not be given for free to those who bought Macs before, I would like to pose a question to you.  What spurred Apple to make this software free for all current and future buyers?

post #75 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by wakefinance View Post
 

 

iWork is free with every Mac purchased from now until eternity.  Do I need to post the links again?  What about the one directly from Apple's website?

 

http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2013/10/23Apple-Introduces-Next-Generation-iWork-and-iLife-Apps-for-OS-X-and-iOS.html

 

With the fact in mind that from now until our sun swallows the Earth in a fiery death, iWork will be included for free on Macs but will not be given for free to those who bought Macs before, I would like to pose a question to you.  What spurred Apple to make this software free for all current and future buyers?

 

Went back and looked at a number of your posts from time gone by. You are completely, totally negative when it comes to Apple products, 100% of the time. I don’t even know why you are a member of this forum. You put your own words in your mouth. You recommend anything but Apple products, the Nexus over the iPad mini. Now you are touting the Chromebook. Go figure.

post #76 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post
 

 

Went back and looked at a number of your posts from time gone by. You are completely, totally negative when it comes to Apple products, 100% of the time. I don’t even know why you are a member of this forum. You put your own words in your mouth. You recommend anything but Apple products, the Nexus over the iPad mini. Now you are touting the Chromebook. Go figure.

 

I am completely and totally negative when it comes to using iOS on my personal device, but I strongly recommend iPhones and iPads to all of my older relatives.  That's about it as far as negativity towards Apple.  I only recommend Macbooks and I will only buy Macbooks.  I would never buy a Chromebook as they are now.  I would never buy a Windows PC or tablet or phone.

 

You may be confusing my rationality for negativity.  Rationality looks a lot like negativity relative to the zealotry of many users here.

 

Edit: To give you a little perspective on me and this site, I began reading articles here before the iMac was released.  As I am 26, that means I've been loving Apple and reading this site for at least 60% of my entire life and 100% of my adult life.  I began reading the comment sections sporadically a while after I began reading articles here.  I began commenting on articles several months after buying my first smartphone (a Droid X because the iPhone wasn't available on Verizon at that time) and seeing the utter idiocy of the posts here regarding Android.  At that time I still longed to own an iPhone in spite of the fact that I appreciated the potential in Android.  When the Galaxy Nexus and Android 4.0 were released, I upgraded and was hooked on Android.  iOS no longer had the edge in design and stability that would have made the restrictive user experience worthwhile in earlier times, and after Jelly Bean was released, iOS's edge in smoothness became insignificant even though it still does have the advantage there in some cases.  If the day comes when Apple allows the iPhone to work like a computer should, I will change to iOS in a heartbeat.  I love the iPhone hardware for its design, and I trust Apple to choose the best quality components.

 

As far as computers, the only computers my family used since the iMac came out were Apple, and that won't be changing.  I love the build and quality of the components in Macs, and I love OSX for its aesthetics and user friendliness.  It's a computer operating system done right, unlike iOS.  I have Windows 7 installed on my Mac via Bootcamp but I only used that side for schoolwork while in college and for officework at my last job.  I strongly prefer OSX to Windows.

 

Long story short, me and Apple go way back.  I love Apple.  I just don't have blinders on.


Edited by wakefinance - 1/2/14 at 11:05am
post #77 of 100

Ooops. We were waiting for the “zealot” label, same as “fanboy.” At least you finally came out with it. Now we know where you are coming from. Your objectivity is astounding, the complete opposite of zealotry.  

post #78 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post
 

Ooops. We were waiting for the “zealot” label, same as “fanboy.” At least you finally came out with it. Now we know where you are coming from. Your objectivity is astounding, the complete opposite of zealotry.  

 

Read my edited post.  Then reconsider.

post #79 of 100
Originally Posted by wakefinance View Post

iWork is free with every Mac purchased now

 

Yep. And? Not for existing Macs and it can’t be said that this is forever.

 

This has all already been said. Why are you repeating things?

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post #80 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post
 

 

Yep. And? Not for existing Macs and it can’t be said that this is forever.

 

This has all already been said. Why are you repeating things?

 

Still avoiding my question, huh?  I laid out the facts as they are now, explicitly acknowledging the fact that Mac users not currently purchasing new Macs don't get free iWork.  You can ignore the part about forever if you would prefer to; I put forever because Apple lists no expiration on the offer.

 

So, why is iWork currently and indefinitely (rather than eternally) being given away for free to Mac and iDevice buyers?  What caused that change?

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