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Cantor: Wearables now a 'legitimate' product category, but only an Apple 'iWatch' would drive sales

post #1 of 37
Thread Starter 
While the glut of wearable devices introduced at this year's Consumer Electronics Show signals that companies hope to tap into the emerging market, analyst Brian White of Cantor Fitzgerald doesn't expect that sales will reach a "meaningful" level until Apple decides to enter the space with its rumored "iWatch."

Pebble


This year's CES proved that wearable devices have become a "legitimate, new product category," White said in a note to investors on Monday, a copy of which was provided to AppleInsider. He noted that most of the new accessories introduced this week were focused on the wrist, whether they were smart watches, fitness sensors, or both.

Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook offered some general comments on the emerging wearable device market last year, when he said he believes the space is "ripe for exploration." Cook panned Google Glass, a wearable head-mounted display, but praised Nike's wrist-worn FuelBand, and suggested the wrist may be a more natural location to place a wearable device.

Those comments only helped to fuel speculation that Apple is working on a wrist-worn accessory, one that is expected to focus on biometrics and health feedback. In a rare public move, Apple has even openly filed for ownership of the "iWatch" trademark in a number of countries around the world.

Echo


Count White among those who expects Apple to release a so-called "iWatch" at some point. In his eyes, sales of wearable devices won't see "meaningful adoption" until Apple decides to enter the market.

AppleInsider took a look at a number of wearable devices at CES last week. Perhaps most notable was Pebble's new Steel smart watch, a high-end model from the company that made a splash in 2013 with the launch of its highly successful smartphone-connected wrist accessory.

Other wrist-bound products showcased at this year's CES were the Meta smart watch, Magellan sports watch, LG's Lifeband Touch wristband, and a trio of new watches coming later this year from Archos. Beyond the wrist, wearable, iOS-compatible devices at this year's show included heads-up displays for sports from Recon Instruments, and the clip-on lifeblogging Narrative camera.
post #2 of 37
Quote:
Wearables now a 'legitimate' product category.

 

That all depends on how you define what exactly that statement means. Aran sweaters are a legit product category, but they aren't an interesting one. Even if I did personally buy a lovely one 2 weeks ago :-). That's where wearables are at this point. Just one more ANALyst playing the guessing game. His wife probably owns AAPL.

 

I personally think we need new laws to prevent corruption on Wall St. I don't think people that hold a certain number of shares like Icahn should be allowed make stock relates posts on public forums like Twitter, TV, publications like NYT, WSJ or anywhere else. The temptation to mislead, control or corrupt for financial gain at that point is far too tempting. The whole game needs to be rewritten if the human race is to evolve to something more meaningful.

 

http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/11/09/apple-its-mojo-and-doug-kass/


Edited by Ireland - 1/13/14 at 6:06am
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post #3 of 37
That's funny - because there are these things called wristwatches, which last time I looked were a 'legitimate' product category, and date as far back as the 16th century. I used to have one at school in the 1980's and it even had a calculator on it!

Stupid analyst.
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post #4 of 37

Anyone remember the wristwatch calculator, enough said on that topic.

 

 

For anyone who has tracked CES over all the years know that there are many products shown off here which never see the light of day, well they saw some day light before they hit the shredder. Most stupid product are shown off at CES than actually product that had any sort of real life application. This maybe the reason Apple and now MS has chosen to stay away from CES. Why show off your product at a product land fill. 


Edited by Maestro64 - 1/13/14 at 10:23am
post #5 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mobius View Post

That's funny - because there are these things called wristwatches, which last time I looked were a 'legitimate' product category, and date as far back as the 16th century. I used to have one at school in the 1980's and it even had a calculator on it!

Stupid analyst.

 

LOL. You're right.

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post #6 of 37
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Originally Posted by Maestro64 View Post

For anyone who has tracked CES over all the years know that there are many products shown off here which never see the light of day, well they saw some day light before they hit the shredder.

Which is why I find laughable when people state concerns about Apple falling behind the competition. I remember Motorola overly hyping a phone that it never released.
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post #7 of 37
In other words without Apple to copy the market is weak and poor sort of like ultra books, tablets, and smart phones were. But Apple has an innovation problem or rather industry has an innovation problem without Apple to copy.
post #8 of 37
Apple will be for wearable computing what IBM was for micro-computers. It's the established, reputable giant that legitimizes the product and takes over the market. Sad to say, all these brave and energetic little gnats will be squashed no matter how good their product is. (And frankly, their product isn't that good.) That's just the nature of the consumer tech biz.
post #9 of 37

This is a lame idea, even if Apple does eventually do it.

post #10 of 37
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post #11 of 37

Apple created a category it didn't even say it was going to participate in. See how amazing Apple is!

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post #12 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by kent909 View Post
 

This is a lame idea, even if Apple does eventually do it.

 

And you'll be the first person in line to buy one once Apple does release one too. People like you do this all the time. 

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post #13 of 37
The problem with the iWatch is named Samsung. Apple know how much technology Samsung is able to pour in his future Galaxy Gear watch, and Apple know that Apple can't beat Samsung to this game. So they are waiting for marketing ideas like they had for the iPhone: 64 bit and fingerprint. Useless for most users but two very strong marketing tools. That's what iWatch need and wait for becoming alive.
post #14 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mobius View Post

That's funny - because there are these things called wristwatches, which last time I looked were a 'legitimate' product category, and date as far back as the 16th century. I used to have one at school in the 1980's and it even had a calculator on it!

Stupid analyst.

Yep, I was a navigator in the U.S. Navy in the late 70's early 80's and bought a Casio calculator watch ($80) and it was one the handiest things I ever owned. At the time.

 

The most accurate form of Navigation (pre-GPS) was, Piloting. That's where you take sights of three lighthouses while steaming along the coast and plot them on your chart to get your position.

 

Celestial navigation (Sextant) is used when you're out of sight of land and too far for radar. But when out at sea there was really no way to see if you were within 1 mile of your fix or 6 miles.

 

When we were along the coast, I used to shoot stars and two hours of math later, I would plot my Celestial fix on the chart and compare to the more accurate Piloting position fix. I could get it under a mile, which is pretty cool. 

 

The week I left the Navy (Feb 7th, 1981), we got our first GPS unit (SatNav) for the Chart House. It was the size of a huge microwave oven. It was so accurate, you could plot your position as you swung around your anchor chain. 

 

Now GPS is in the iPhone or in a watch.

 

Just amazing and no need to shoot the stars anymore! :)

 

 

Brought back some memories, Mobius. Thx. :)

 

Best.


Edited by christopher126 - 1/13/14 at 8:12am
post #15 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by jpd514 View Post

The problem with the iWatch is named Samsung. Apple know how much technology Samsung is able to pour in his future Galaxy Gear watch, and Apple know that Apple can't beat Samsung to this game. So they are waiting for marketing ideas like they had for the iPhone: 64 bit and fingerprint. Useless for most users but two very strong marketing tools. That's what iWatch need and wait for becoming alive.

 

Galaxy Gear Watch is a total flop...who are you kidding! Just because they (Samsung) were first, doesn't mean they're better. Apple is typically never first, but almost always better. Samsung rush this poorly designed watch out just to beat Apple. I seriously doubt they have plans other than to try and improve what people are complaining about it the watch itself. As soon as Apple releases one (if they even do) and it has all of these amazing features, they'll be scrambling to copy it just like they did with their phones and tablets. 

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post #16 of 37
Wearables are great ideas but they will stay science fiction until Apple makes it real.

And when Apple makes it real, it will have the beauty and wearability of a Rolex watch. People will want to wear it unlike the dregs that are here today.

Apple has always looked at a product category and asked if they can come up with something better. If not, then they don't enter that category or only create a hobby product if there is enough interest and the ability to create a great product.

There are a lot of engineering limitations that prevent an iWatch from being just as great as a Rolex. This is why we only have crapp in the market.
post #17 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by macxpress View Post

Galaxy Gear Watch is a total flop...who are you kidding! Just because they (Samsung) were first, doesn't mean they're better. Apple is typically never first, but almost always better. Samsung rush this poorly designed watch out just to beat Apple. I seriously doubt they have plans other than to try and improve what people are complaining about it the watch itself. As soon as Apple releases one (if they even do) and it has all of these amazing features, they'll be scrambling to copy it just like they did with their phones and tablets. 

The "flop" your talking about is making the Los Angeles Times news

"BMW i3 takes commands from a Galaxy Gear smartwatch"

Not bad for a "flop".

If Galaxy Gear watch was from Apple you would say "biggest thing since the invention of the wheel"
post #18 of 37
As I see it it's not the product but functions it delivers. Keep in mind the Star Trek model. No one wore jewelry of any kind! And they certainly didn't need an iPhone! Perhaps something to think about.
post #19 of 37
For us that know what's really up with Apple this is common. Apple is an engineering company at its very heart! PERIOD!
When Apple does something, back the f*** up b**** cause Apple ain't playing!!!!
Pebble, that bs from Samsung can all take a long walk off a short pier.
iWatch will cut the heads off of so many traditional watches. Watch the folks at Casio have a CEO shake up. Just like the iPhone 1st gen destroyed everything in Nokia's bag of gimmicks(like 400 plus damn phones) the iWatch will crush the sh** out of the traditional watch.
2014 ia going to be a battle royal!
post #20 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by jpd514 View Post


The "flop" your talking about is making the Los Angeles Times news

"BMW i3 takes commands from a Galaxy Gear smartwatch"

Not bad for a "flop".

If Galaxy Gear watch was from Apple you would say "biggest thing since the invention of the wheel"

 

I could care less about what accepts commands. This means nothing if nobody buys the watch. Sales and most importantly, features are what makes a product great. Samsung's smart watch has none of this. Its overpriced, has very little features and people are still confused as to why they'd want one. 

 

Apple wouldn't make a watch that would make people think, why do I need one? They would make a watch that would make people want one. There's a big difference. 


Edited by macxpress - 1/13/14 at 9:20am

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post #21 of 37
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Originally Posted by gprovida View Post

In other words without Apple to copy the market is weak and poor sort of like ultra books, tablets, and smart phones were. But Apple has an innovation problem or rather industry has an innovation problem without Apple to copy.

 

In other words, without a product for Apple to champion and innovate with, and other companies to copy -- whereby pundits and platform acolytes can say "it's nothing original" and "Apple is doomed" -- there is no market for Apple to be failing at.

 

Without Apple around to dominate and thereby lose, apparently there is no new market category.

 

:lol:

post #22 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by ronstark View Post

As I see it it's not the product but functions it delivers. Keep in mind the Star Trek model. No one wore jewelry of any kind! And they certainly didn't need an iPhone! Perhaps something to think about.

 

You are forgetting the Star Fleet insignia that doubled as a two-way communicator and tracker.

 

Had Roddenberry and the later writers been a bit more forward looking, they would see that having biometric data on people would be extremely invaluable, and having situations where someone could LOSE contact with a ship when it's their only life support for light years -- not good.

 

There's a lot of problems a wearable device can solve -- just most of them we are seeing have not found those problems nor solutions which is why they won't sell.

post #23 of 37

The reason Apple isn't about to make an "iWatch" is because it fails their biggest test: "does it deserve to exist?" Nope.

 

Now, if it was possible for an iWatch to act as a simplified iPhone with Facetime, then maybe Apple would consider it.

post #24 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by christopher126 View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mobius View Post

That's funny - because there are these things called wristwatches, which last time I looked were a 'legitimate' product category, and date as far back as the 16th century. I used to have one at school in the 1980's and it even had a calculator on it!


Stupid analyst.
Yep, I was a navigator in the U.S. Navy in the late 70's early 80's and bought a Casio calculator watch ($80) and it was one the handiest things I ever owned. At the time.

The most accurate form of Navigation (pre-GPS) was, Piloting. That's where you take sights of three lighthouses while steaming along the coast and plot them on your chart to get your position.

Celestial navigation (Sextant) is used when you're out of sight of land and too far for radar. But when out at sea there was really no way to see if you were within 1 mile of your fix or 6 miles.

When we were along the coast, I used to shoot stars and two hours of math later, I would plot my Celestial fix on the chart and compare to the more accurate Piloting position fix. I could get it under a mile, which is pretty cool. 

The week I left the Navy (Feb 7th, 1981), we got our first GPS unit (SatNav) for the Chart House. It was the size of a huge microwave oven. It was so accurate, you could plot your position as you swung around your anchor chain. 

Now GPS is in the iPhone or in a watch.

Just amazing and no need to shoot the stars anymore! 1smile.gif


Brought back some memories, Mobius. Thx. 1smile.gif

Best.

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post #25 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post


Now, if you're in range of 3 iBeacons, you can trilaterate your location within several feet... on your iPhone!

:) Yeah, if you want to "navigate" around Macy's! :)

post #26 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fake_William_Shatner View Post
 

 

You are forgetting the Star Fleet insignia that doubled as a two-way communicator and tracker.

 

Had Roddenberry and the later writers been a bit more forward looking, they would see that having biometric data on people would be extremely invaluable, and having situations where someone could LOSE contact with a ship when it's their only life support for light years -- not good.

 

There's a lot of problems a wearable device can solve -- just most of them we are seeing have not found those problems nor solutions which is why they won't sell.

Yep, "Beam me up, Luke!" :)

post #27 of 37

Perhaps the first 'legit' product category created by speculation, a rumour, and a whole lotta fear.

post #28 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by paxman View Post
 

Perhaps the first 'legit' product category created by speculation, a rumour, and a whole lotta fear.

Perhaps, paxman. :) It's a given that if Apple ends up doing a watch, they will do the basics, notifications, etc. But, if Apple brings it's special expertise to health/exercise, it could be a game changer.

 

I think Apple could blow the fitbits, Nike watches, Garmins out of the water.

 

As a runner, on my iPhone, I have to open the Nike+GPS app and set, open flashlight app and set to "flashing" (early morning/night), open HRM app (put on chest strap). Open podcast app or setup a music playlist.

 

Although the apps were developed with iOS in mind, they have varying degrees of interface quality. None compare to Apple's own apps as far as elegance. In fact, none of them are what I would call elegant. And, I find it very fragmented.

 

Now imagine, at the start of the run saying, "Siri let's go for a run!" and she's "OK, would you like me to play a podcast or listen to your 'Run' playlist? Would you like to shuffle your playlist? It's dark, so I've set your iPhone flash to 'strobe,' OK? Would you like me to give you updates (voice) during the run?" And after the first run's set of questions, the next run she says, "Same as last time?" Yep Siri let's go! :)

 

I look down at my Apple iWatch and can see my heart rate, distance and pace. And I get updates from Siri via my earbuds or my BT sports headset.

 

Or, "Hey Siri, lets go for a hike, or swim, or bike ride, etc., etc."

 

Best.


Edited by christopher126 - 1/13/14 at 11:37am
post #29 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by jpd514 View Post

The problem with the iWatch is named Samsung. Apple know how much technology Samsung is able to pour in his future Galaxy Gear watch, and Apple know that Apple can't beat Samsung to this game. So they are waiting for marketing ideas like they had for the iPhone: 64 bit and fingerprint. Useless for most users but two very strong marketing tools. That's what iWatch need and wait for becoming alive.

Samsung?

 

Were that true the first Gear wouldn't have been such landfill fodder.

post #30 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by christopher126 View Post
 

Perhaps, paxman. :) It's a given that if Apple ends up doing a watch, they will do the basics, notifications, etc. But, if Apple brings it's special expertise to health/exercise, it could be a game changer.

 

I think Apple could blow the fitbits, Nike watches, Garmins out of the water.

 

As a runner, on my iPhone, I have to open the Nike+GPS app and set, open flashlight app and set to "flashing" (early morning/night), open HRM app (put on chest strap). Open podcast app or setup a music playlist.

 

Although the apps were developed with iOS in mind, they have varying degrees of interface quality. None compare to Apple's own apps as far as elegance. In fact, none of them are what I would call elegant. And, I find it very fragmented.

 

Now imagine, at the start of the run saying, "Siri let's go for a run!" and she's "OK, would you like me to play a podcast or listen to your 'Run' playlist? Would you like to shuffle your playlist? It's dark, so I've set your iPhone flash to 'strobe,' OK? Would you like me to give you updates (voice) during the run?" And after the first run's set of questions, the next run she says, "Same as last time?" Yep Siri let's go! :)

 

I look down at my Apple iWatch and can see my heart rate, distance and pace. And I get updates from Siri via my earbuds or my BT sports headset.

 

Or, "Hey Siri, lets go for a hike, or swim, or bike ride, etc., etc."

 

Best.

Yes, I certainly can see there is room for improvement but the runners of this world cannot make up a successful device category - there just aren't enough of you. Once body sensors can measure other vitals such as blood sugars I think perhaps an iWatch will come closer to becoming a reality. If such a device can effectively track vital body statistics live, every adult over 50 - 60 will want one. That's when Apple will enter the market. 

post #31 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by paxman View Post
 

Yes, I certainly can see there is room for improvement but the runners of this world cannot make up a successful device category - there just aren't enough of you. Once body sensors can measure other vitals such as blood sugars I think perhaps an iWatch will come closer to becoming a reality. If such a device can effectively track vital body statistics live, every adult over 50 - 60 will want one. That's when Apple will enter the market. 

Agreed. But, there is even a bigger market of "wannabe runners!" :)

post #32 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by jpd514 View Post

So they are waiting for marketing ideas like they had for the iPhone: 64 bit and fingerprint. Useless for most users but two very strong marketing tools.

As if the Pop-up Play, eye-scroll, or hover select is useful?  Please.  Give me 64 bit and fingerprint any day.  Samsung is the king of gimmicks.

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post #33 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by gprovida View Post

In other words without Apple to copy the market is weak and poor sort of like ultra books, tablets, and smart phones were. But Apple has an innovation problem or rather industry has an innovation problem without Apple to copy.

 

You know the drill. If Apple releases an iWatch, everybody will copy it and claim that it the natural evolution of a watch.

post #34 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by BestKeptSecret View Post

You know the drill. If Apple releases an iWatch, everybody will copy it and claim that it the natural evolution of a watch.

Are you negligent to the fact that it's happened to just about every product? There's always a company that leads the charge of the evolution of a product. I'm pretty sure that you don't have a Philips flat panel TV, so were you upset when Sony, Samsung, LG, Panasonic, Toshiba, etc, etc copied Philips new design for TVs? I could make a mock up of what TVs looked like before and after Philips, and for a plethora of products.
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post #35 of 37
This category is futile until is serves real biometric purposes, which would be hard to imagine more than heart rate and steps taken / avg calories burned.

Everyone I know who is really into phones and keeps up with advances in mobile tech says there is no way they would buy an iWatch, and I agree.

Do people need one more thing to distract them? I can't wait for a near future when everyone is wearing google glass, an iWatch on their wrist, and a phone in their pocket while crashing their cars into everything around them.

Maybe the new iWatches will have an LTE version so we can pay for an ISP four separate times a month.

Don't act like Apple is flawless, Ping, Nano Watch, iRadio is basically useless, Apple TV leaves a lot to be desired. I love my Apple products, and trust their design, but mobile computing needs more scrutiny for how it is shaping the experience of our world in public space, and I think it has almost as many drawbacks as it does benefits. Not to mention the environmental impact of infinite growth.
post #36 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by jnati View Post

This category is futile until is serves real biometric purposes...

I actually think the killer functionality for iWatch should be fitness, and specifically wireless music playback combined with GPS, heart rate, motion and pedometer. I.E. What iWatch should be really is an iPod killer with amazing battery life, sleek, minimal design, a low-energy connection to a set of mag-charged new Apple headphones that are as cool as the existing EarPods. And the bonus feature would be iPhone connectivity and notifications. So you could go for a jog with just your iWatch and listen to your music while it tracks all of your information and arrive home to important notifications popping up on your iWatch as it syncs with your iPhone to gather all your jogging data.

That would be a product that deserves to exist.
Edited by Ireland - 1/14/14 at 11:49am
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post #37 of 37

There's a lot more you can do with a computer in your pocket than one on your lap. You don't have to find a place to sit down to use it, for a start. But how much more can you do with a computer on your wrist vs. in your pocket? Not much. Exercise maybe, or in general any activity where you need both hands free.

 

Would the iWatch be specialised to one of these activities or try to be general purpose? And if the whole point is to have both hands free, the primary interface can't really be a touch screen. Siri maybe?

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