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Foxconn reportedly ships nearly 1.5M iPhone 5s units for China Mobile launch

post #1 of 25
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In a possible indication of preorder demand for a China Mobile iPhone 5s, Apple partner supplier Foxconn has reportedly sent more than one million handsets to the world's largest carrier ahead of its launch of the device this Friday.

China Mobile


Citing people familiar with the matter, The Wall Street Journal reports China Mobile has taken receipt of roughly 1.4 million iPhone 5s handsets. The carrier has been taking preorders for Apple's flagship iPhone since December and will officially launch the device this Friday.

The source said shipping one million or more iPhones to a single carrier in one month "is substantial," but notes they have no further information regarding demand beyond January. Apple has yet to notify Foxconn of the next shipment's volume, the person said.

It was announced in December that Apple would be selling its smartphone through China Mobile, a hotly anticipated deal many believe will give a significant boost to worldwide iPhone sales. The carrier is reportedly looking to the iPhone to draw current 3G customers to a newly deployed 4G TD-LTE network.

While it is unknown if the purportedly shipped iPhone 5s handsets are accounted for by preorder reservations, the 1.4 million unit figure is in line with analyst projections for 2014. Based on a survey of Chinese consumers taken before the China Mobile announcement, Morgan Stanley Research estimated the deal would generate a minimum of 12 million additional iPhone sales this year.

For context, Apple sold a combined 9 million iPhone 5s and 5c units in three days when the two smartphones launched worldwide in September of 2013.
post #2 of 25
Only 1.5 million iPhone units?!!! Apple is going to be in deep doo-doo if this isn't just the amount of units needed for only the first weekend of sales. Out of 760 million China Mobile subscribers is this the best that Apple can do? It looks like this quarter is going to be worse than last year's quarter and send Apple's share price down to $500 as a start. Android OS is just too much for Apple to deal with. Apple is truly doomed.



/s
post #3 of 25
Quote:
Originally Posted by Constable Odo View Post

Only 1.5 million iPhone units?!!! Apple is going to be in deep doo-doo if this isn't just the amount of units needed for only the first weekend of sales. Out of 760 million China Mobile subscribers is this the best that Apple can do? It looks like this quarter is going to be worse than last year's quarter and send Apple's share price down to $500 as a start. Android OS is just too much for Apple to deal with. Apple is truly doomed.



/s

 

lol

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post #4 of 25

1.5 out of 760 is just 0,19%, so in language of numbers its close to zero! :) 

post #5 of 25

The number does not include 5C phones which sell about 25% of total iphones.

 

So we are looking at about 2 million phones on launch.

That's pretty big.

 

The great thing about China Mobile is a ton of people on the network own 4S phones on it already.  They will be upgrading this year and then the 5 buyers will be upgrading next year.  That means we will have a constant stream of additional phone sales from China Moblie the next two years.  I'm thinking 15-25 million per year.

 

5 year return (Jan 2009- Dec 2013)

Apple: 580%

Google: 264%

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post #6 of 25
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

The number does not include 5C phones which sell about 25% of total iphones.

 

So we are looking at about 2 million phones on launch.

That's pretty big.

 

The great thing about China Mobile is a ton of people on the network own 4S phones on it already.  They will be upgrading this year and then the 5 buyers will be upgrading next year.  That means we will have a constant stream of additional phone sales from China Moblie the next two years.  I'm thinking 15-25 million per year.

 

5 year return (Jan 2009- Dec 2013)

Apple: 580%

Google: 264%

 

15 - 25 million. That amount will keep the share price exactly where it is now.

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post #7 of 25
Brave predictions of doom.

No way. China Mobile will sell tons of iPhones.

Tons.
post #8 of 25
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post
 

 

15 - 25 million. That amount will keep the share price exactly where it is now.

 

pretty idiotic thing to say. 

 

The stock is priced at ZERO growth right now.  An extra 25 million phones would be a boost of 16% of units sold

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post #9 of 25
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

 

pretty idiotic thing to say. 

 

The stock is priced at ZERO growth right now.  An extra 25 million phones would be a boost of 16% of units sold

 

... and I thought that saying 15 - 25 million was the idiotic thing that was said.

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post #10 of 25
Quote:
Originally Posted by 512ke View Post

Brave predictions of doom.

No way. China Mobile will sell tons of iPhones.

Tons.

 

 The 5c will hardly even register. I think Apple has to make a more expensive iPhone... not cheaper. The 5s can be the cheap phone... even at the current price.

 

Apple will have to sell an extra 11-12 million phones per quarter to make it matter.

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post #11 of 25
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

The great thing about China Mobile is a ton of people on the network own 4S phones on it already.  They will be upgrading this year and then the 5 buyers will be upgrading next year.  That means we will have a constant stream of additional phone sales from China Moblie the next two years.  I'm thinking 15-25 million per year.

Exactly!

1.4 million units for launch. What is the launch... the first weekend? The first week?

What about the next week, next month, next year? People buy phones all year long!

I think it's crazy that people are so down on Apple for adding another carrier in China. The iPhone was already on China Unicom and China Telecom... so why is it bad for the iPhone to now be on China Mobile? And the iPhone finally has 4G on China Mobile.

This can only be good news. More carriers means more phones sold.
post #12 of 25
Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael Scrip View Post


Exactly!

1.4 million units for launch. What is the launch... the first weekend? The first week?

What about the next week, next month, next year? People buy phones all year long!

I think it's crazy that people are so down on Apple for adding another carrier in China. The iPhone was already on China Unicom and China Telecom... so why is it bad for the iPhone to now be on China Mobile? And the iPhone finally has 4G on China Mobile.

This can only be good news. More carriers means more phones sold.

 

People are down on Apple for adding CM?

 

I must have missed that. I'd like to read about that to hear their reasons.

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post #13 of 25
"Bad news" when market makers want the stock down, to earn billions in the option market on apple. "Good news" when they decide to play it back up. Rigged rigged rigged. Apple is smooth sailing as always.
post #14 of 25
Quote:
Originally Posted by Constable Odo View Post

Only 1.5 million iPhone units?!!! Apple is going to be in deep doo-doo if this isn't just the amount of units needed for only the first weekend of sales. Out of 760 million China Mobile subscribers is this the best that Apple can do? It looks like this quarter is going to be worse than last year's quarter and send Apple's share price down to $500 as a start. Android OS is just too much for Apple to deal with. Apple is truly doomed.



/s

You had me going for a minute there… You've got to stop dangling your little s…
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post #15 of 25
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

People are down on Apple for adding CM?

I must have missed that. I'd like to read about that to hear their reasons.

Well... it was on forums... not the general press.

A common theme is "everyone who wants an iPhone on China Mobile already has one" referring to the number of existing iPhones already on China Mobile (but at 2G speeds).

And another theme is "the iPhone is too expensive for China" but forgetting that the iPhone is already sold on two of the three major carriers.

It's mostly garbage spouted by clueless forum posters... so I disregard it!
post #16 of 25
Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael Scrip View Post


Well... it was on forums... not the general press.

A common theme is "everyone who wants an iPhone on China Mobile already has one" referring to the number of existing iPhones already on China Mobile (but at 2G speeds).

And another theme is "the iPhone is too expensive for China" but forgetting that the iPhone is already sold on two of the three major carriers.

It's mostly garbage spouted by clueless forum posters... so I disregard it!

 

Oh... I get it. People aren't actually down on adding CM. More like they feel that adding CM won't change Apple's financial outlook.

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post #17 of 25
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Oh... I get it. People aren't actually down on adding CM. More like they feel that adding CM won't change Apple's financial outlook.

Yeah. You get the idea. 1smile.gif

Sorry I didn't explain it clearly in the first place.
post #18 of 25
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post
 

 

 The 5c will hardly even register. I think Apple has to make a more expensive iPhone... not cheaper. The 5s can be the cheap phone... even at the current price.

 

Apple will have to sell an extra 11-12 million phones per quarter to make it matter.

 

WTF are you talking about!

 

You are telling me if ChinaMobile does not add 44-48 million phones it won't matter? Apple only sold 150M phones last FY.  You expect ONE carrier in ONE country to sell 33% of their total phones? Idiotic.

 

A 16% growth in revenue/earnings from ChinaMobile ALONE will be huge (20M phones)

Add the growth in Japan, USA, ect and we are looking at 10-15% earnings growth.  At that growth rate we will see $650 stock price.

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post #19 of 25

Odo

 

If you actually do some number crunching on Apple by obtaining the Value Line Report and do a Price to value calculation the following is the 2-3 year share price range based on 20+ company metrics. Remember the main driver of share price is the companies earnings(profit), Why do you think Samsung took a hit recently and are scrambling to restore margins going forward?

 

High ........................$1460

Highest Hold ......... $1180

Highest Buy............. $760

Lowest .................... $408

 

This splits it into 1/3rds to help pick entry point for the stock , As you can see the current $540-550  stock price  is well within the buy range!

 

So investing now will probably produce at least a 100% gain in next 3 years fairly easily if you would like to make some money in your 401K so you can retire earlier than you intended. This is how professional investors pick their entry and exit points and  they redo the numbers every qtrs. after earnings


Edited by Paul94544 - 1/14/14 at 9:10am

Originally by Rickers - 2014 : Cook & will bury Apple.  They can only ride Steve's ghost so long.


History reduce Apple Watch.... to a footnote in the annals of technology - Benjamin Frost Dec 2014



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Originally by Rickers - 2014 : Cook & will bury Apple.  They can only ride Steve's ghost so long.


History reduce Apple Watch.... to a footnote in the annals of technology - Benjamin Frost Dec 2014



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post #20 of 25
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

 

WTF are you talking about!

 

You are telling me if ChinaMobile does not add 44-48 million phones it won't matter? Apple only sold 150M phones last FY.  You expect ONE carrier in ONE country to sell 33% of their total phones? Idiotic.

 

A 16% growth in revenue/earnings from ChinaMobile ALONE will be huge (20M phones)

Add the growth in Japan, USA, ect and we are looking at 10-15% earnings growth.  At that growth rate we will see $650 stock price.

 

LOL!

 

You are so funny.

 

750 million subscribers. More than double the total subscribers in the USA where Apple sells approx. 12 million phones on average per quarter. I don't think that asking China Mobile to sell the same number of phones to twice the subscriber base is out of the question.

 

China Mobile subscribers already own an estimated 36-40 million iPhones. One could estimate that Apple is already selling 3-4 million phones to CM customers per quarter already. Adding another 1-2 million phones per quarter as you suggested will hardly make a blip on the chart.

 

Oh... and, btw... if CM sold 44-48 million iPhones per year that would be in the range of 25-27% of Apple's total.


Edited by island hermit - 1/14/14 at 9:15am
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post #21 of 25
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post
 

 

LOL!

 

You are so funny.

 

750 million subscribers. More than double the total subscribers in the USA where Apple sells approx. 12 million phones on average per quarter. I don't think that asking China Mobile to sell the same number of phones to twice the subscriber base is out of the question.

 

China Mobile subscribers already own an estimated 36-40 million iPhones. One could estimate that Apple is already selling 3-4 million phones to CM customers per quarter already. Adding another 1-2 million phones per quarter as you suggested will hardly make a blip on the chart.

 

Oh... and, btw... if CM sold 44-48 million iPhones per year that would be in the range of 25-27% of Apple's total.

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post
 

 

LOL!

 

You are so funny.

 

750 million subscribers. More than double the total subscribers in the USA where Apple sells approx. 12 million phones on average per quarter. I don't think that asking China Mobile to sell the same number of phones to twice the subscriber base is out of the question.

 

China Mobile subscribers already own an estimated 36-40 million iPhones. One could estimate that Apple is already selling 3-4 million phones to CM customers per quarter already. Adding another 1-2 million phones per quarter as you suggested will hardly make a blip on the chart.

 

Oh... and, btw... if CM sold 44-48 million iPhones per year that would be in the range of 25-27% of Apple's total.

 

I won't speculate what number of iPhones were sold using ChinaMobile network in the past since no one really knows.

 

Bottom line is an additional 6 million iPhones sold a Qtr makes a HUGE difference.  iPhones have about a 40% profit margin so we are talking about an additional ( 25 million x $600 ASP x 40%) = 7.5 Billion in additional profits.  Thats an additional $8.00 EPS. Big deal.  Real big deal.

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post #22 of 25
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

 

 

I won't speculate what number of iPhones were sold using ChinaMobile network in the past since no one really knows.

 

Bottom line is an additional 6 million iPhones sold a Qtr makes a HUGE difference.  iPhones have about a 40% profit margin so we are talking about an additional ( 25 million x $600 ASP x 40%) = 7.5 Billion in additional profits.  Thats an additional $8.00 EPS. Big deal.  Real big deal.

 

+ $8 eps?

 

lol

 

Talking about inflated numbers.

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post #23 of 25
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post
 

 

+ $8 eps?

 

lol

 

Talking about inflated numbers.

 

25,000,000 phones x $600 (average selling price) = 15,000,000,000

15,000,000,000 x 50% profit margin (profit margin is higher because fixed cost are absorbed by baseline sales) = 7,500,000,000

 

7,500,000,000 / 900,000,000 shares = $8.33 additional EPS

 

BIG DEAL

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post #24 of 25
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

 

25,000,000 phones x $600 (average selling price) = 15,000,000,000

15,000,000,000 x 50% profit margin (profit margin is higher because fixed cost are absorbed by baseline sales) = 7,500,000,000

 

7,500,000,000 / 900,000,000 shares = $8.33 additional EPS

 

BIG DEAL

 

So you honestly believe that 7,500,000,000 is net profit?

 

Oh boy.

 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2013/12/05/how-much-revenue-and-eps-could-a-china-mobile-deal-generate-for-apple/


Edited by island hermit - 1/14/14 at 2:04pm
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post #25 of 25

WSJ: "Shen said while China Mobile will help boost Apple’s market share in China, the U.S. technology giant is facing rising challenges from other smartphone vendors in the saturated high-end segment."

 

Apple's China Mobile deal will grow their selling numbers by 50% in the 'saturated high-end segment'.

Not Apple is facing challenges, all others are!

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