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China Mobile guidance expected to be investors' focus in Apple's next earnings report

post #1 of 21
Thread Starter 
When Apple reports its holiday 2013 earnings in a few weeks, investors are likely to be focused on the future, analyst Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray believes, as the upcoming launch of the iPhone on China Mobile takes center stage.

iPhone 5s


Munster predicted in a note to investors on Tuesday that Apple's guidance for the upcoming March 2014 quarter should benefit from the sale of about 3 million additional iPhones through China Mobile, which is the world's largest wireless provider. He expects the addition of China Mobile will be the "biggest focus" for investors intently listening to the company's scheduled Jan. 27 conference call.

In all, Munster expects that March 2014 guidance will be about 2 percent ahead of Wall Street expectations, which would be the same level the company exceeded market predictions for its guidance for the December 2013 quarter.

Sales of the iPhone 5s and iPhone 5c are set to begin at China Mobile on Jan. 17. The latest reports from earlier Tuesday suggested that manufacturer Foxconn has shipped nearly 1.5 million iPhone 5s units to China Mobile for the upcoming launch.Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray sees China Mobile adding 3 million iPhone sales to Apple's March 2014 quarter.

Some analysts expect that the addition of China Mobile will net Apple an incremental 17 million iPhone sales in calendar 2014. The results of a survey published last month by Morgan Stanley research suggested the carrier will add at least 12 million iPhone sales for Apple in 2014.

Munster does not believe that Wall Street consensus numbers for the current March quarter accommodate for the China Mobile launch. Existing projections call for Apple to sell around 42 million units in the March quarter, which would represent 12 percent year over year growth.

As for the just-concluded December quarter, Munster noted that Apple has reported revenue near or slightly above the high end of its guidance in each of the last three quarters, since it changed its guidance policy to reflect more realistic expectations. That would suggest that the company will report revenue of around $58 billion, $14.35 earnings per share, and sales of as many as 57 million iPhone units.

The analyst's summary of 20 buy-side investor expectations also sees Apple having sold as many as 25 million iPads, and consensus expectation is for the company to have shipped 4.6 million Macs. Estimated gross margins for the quarter have been pegged at 37.5 percent.
post #2 of 21

I'm pretty sure the earnings are being released late this month (Jan 27th) in order for Apple to have a solid number for ChinaMobile launch.  I'm not saying they will announce a figure but it will help them on their Q2 Guidance.

post #3 of 21
Munster is a putz.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #4 of 21

Analysts are expecting 40-50million iPhones in the first quarter, anything less and AAPL will drop to 380USD.

post #5 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by hydr View Post
 

Analysts are expecting 40-50million iPhones in the first quarter, anything less and AAPL will drop to 380USD.

And were they to they exceed that number how how high will the stock go?

post #6 of 21
Of course, ask a bunch of questions about future sales involving ChinaMobile, knowing full well that neither Cook or Oppenheimer will answer them.

All one needs to do is listen to their guidance for the next quarter, determine accuracy of Apple's guidance for the last quarter compared to the report, and assume Apple knows what their talking about.

Now, that wasn't hard, was it.
post #7 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfc1138 View Post

And were they to they exceed that number how how high will the stock go?

it will stay the same.. wile google goes up to 2k for no reason at all..
post #8 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfc1138 View Post
 

And were they to they exceed that number how how high will the stock go?

385

 

It does not matter how much growth or money Apple makes. Market Maker decided a couple of years ago that Apple was going down. They made huge bets on it, and they will sell shares/control the price downwards until their bet is finalised. Look up max pain theory for OpEx and Apple, and see it´s been working every single time in the last two years. Someone is making a killing with Apple down. 

 

The "Analysts expects" is just a media driven narrative to make people think Apple is failing when they don´t hit the expectations. 

I´m noting that Apple is now lower than before the China Mobile deal. It does not matter what they do, there will always be higher expectations and a negative trend for Apple. Market is far from efficient, it´s easily manipulated if you have enough money. The real money is in the option market with Apple, share price is just a tool they use to make a killing.

post #9 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by hydr View Post
 

385

 

It does not matter how much growth or money Apple makes. Market Maker decided a couple of years ago that Apple was going down. They made huge bets on it, and they will sell shares/control the price downwards until their bet is finalised. Look up max pain theory for OpEx and Apple, and see it´s been working every single time in the last two years. Someone is making a killing with Apple down. 

 

The "Analysts expects" is just a media driven narrative to make people think Apple is failing when they don´t hit the expectations. 

I´m noting that Apple is now lower than before the China Mobile deal. It does not matter what they do, there will always be higher expectations and a negative trend for Apple. Market is far from efficient, it´s easily manipulated if you have enough money. The real money is in the option market with Apple, share price is just a tool they use to make a killing.

I agree that market manipulation is somewhat an explanation.  But don't be fooled on long term strategy to range puts/calls.  There are a lot of short term strategies merely to move the stock up or down, making money both ways.  There is NEVER one market maker...unless you're a conspiracy theorist.  If so, state your conspiracy.  :-)

post #10 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by hydr View Post
 

385

 

It does not matter how much growth or money Apple makes. Market Maker decided a couple of years ago that Apple was going down. They made huge bets on it, and they will sell shares/control the price downwards until their bet is finalised. Look up max pain theory for OpEx and Apple, and see it´s been working every single time in the last two years. Someone is making a killing with Apple down. 

 

The "Analysts expects" is just a media driven narrative to make people think Apple is failing when they don´t hit the expectations. 

I´m noting that Apple is now lower than before the China Mobile deal. It does not matter what they do, there will always be higher expectations and a negative trend for Apple. Market is far from efficient, it´s easily manipulated if you have enough money. The real money is in the option market with Apple, share price is just a tool they use to make a killing.

 

5 year return (Jan2009-Dec2013)

 

Apple 580%

Google 264%

 

If you are so convinced of your 'theory' you should be able to become a MILLIONAIRE and short the hell out of Apple or buy $400 puts. 

 

Good night and try harder.

post #11 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by jpmia View Post


it will stay the same.. wile google goes up to 2k for no reason at all..

5 year return (Jan2009-Dec2013)

 

Apple 580%

Google 264%

 

Don't be so short-sighted

post #12 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

 

5 year return (Jan2009-Dec2013)

 

Apple 580%

Google 264%

 

If you are so convinced of your 'theory' you should be able to become a MILLIONAIRE and short the hell out of Apple or buy $400 puts. 

 

Good night and try harder.

I got all my monies in APPL stock since 2008. 

post #13 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by hydr View Post
 

I got all my monies in APPL stock since 2008. 

 

sure you do.

post #14 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

5 year return (Jan2009-Dec2013)

 

Apple 580%

Google 264%

 

Don't be so short-sighted

 

Hmmmm... well if that's how this works then I'm putting my money on Amazon.

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post #15 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post
 

 

Hmmmm... well if that's how this works then I'm putting my money on Amazon.

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post
 

 

Hmmmm... well if that's how this works then I'm putting my money on Amazon.

 


look at Amazon's and Apples historical PE's.

post #16 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

 

 


look at Amazon's and Apples historical PE's.

 

So, you're changing your tune by saying that it's more complicated than just looking at return history?

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post #17 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by hydr View Post
 

I got all my monies in APPL stock since 2008. 

"APPL"? ?

 

Bummer for you, I've been in AAPL a long time ( ~2002) and it's been very nice, sorry you missed the ride.

 

Though the APPL people do seem nice enough to support.

http://www.appl.org/i4a/pages/index.cfm?pageid=1


Edited by jfc1138 - 1/14/14 at 2:23pm
post #18 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfc1138 View Post
 

"APPL"? ?

 

Bummer for you, I've been in AAPL a long time ( ~2002) and it's been very nice, sorry you missed the ride.

 

Though the APPL people do seem nice enough to support.

http://www.appl.org/i4a/pages/index.cfm?pageid=1

 

AAPL obviously.  Good for you then, happy you have made some money, and hopefully you´ll continue to make a bunch in 2014/2015. Hopefully TC will increase the dividend also come february.

post #19 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post
 

 

So, you're changing your tune by saying that it's more complicated than just looking at return history?

 

I won't tell you how to invest.  I'm just reminding people not to look at one 12 month period and conclude the stock is a loser.  Sure Apple was market underperform for 2013 but not understanding WHY it was down is a critical mistake people make.  Have a more long range view (5 years) evens out peaks and valley's.

 

I won't go into detail with Amazon but I see the argument why they would be a stock to buy

post #20 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

I won't tell you how to invest.

Do you still consider max pain numbers a reliable prognosticator of Apple stock prices or has that theory been tossed aside now? Serious question. Andy Zaky used to be considered reliable and an Apple stock darling but of course he's now disappeared from the landscape.
melior diabolus quem scies
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post #21 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post


Do you still consider max pain numbers a reliable prognosticator of Apple stock prices or has that theory been tossed aside now? Serious question. Andy Zaky used to be considered reliable and an Apple stock darling but of course he's now disappeared from the landscape.

 

I'd say max pain can help move a stock when there is no relevant event or news.  The stock will naturally move to max pain because the players are all hedging their stock with options.  But if there is a relevant event you can kiss max pain good bye.

 

In 2013 I was a believer that max pain or more accurately call sellers were a big part of Apple's low share price.  But that alone can't make a stock drop for months.  The other factor was negative earnings growth (Q1 was zero growth, Q2-Q4 negative) which can really mess up a companies PE ratio.

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