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Apple may have sold upwards of 60 million iPhones over holiday quarter - Page 2

post #41 of 115

I think the author was extrapolating from analyst estimates to actual results.  As we all know the analysts don't like to come across too bullish even though in private they might predict higher numbers.  

post #42 of 115

What other company do you know where the stock will fall $14 on good news. Apple should be trading above $600 easily.

 

Never argue with an idiot. They will only bring you down to their level and beat you with experience. 

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Never argue with an idiot. They will only bring you down to their level and beat you with experience. 

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post #43 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post


So you're saying Apple's YoY net earnings show Apple earnings in 2013 were less then they earned in their respective 2012 quarters?

 

That is correct.

 

I think revenue grew about 8% from 2012 but earnings went down 10%.

 

2012 FY EPS - $44.16

2013 FY EPS - $39.63

 

2012 IMO was a total anomaly because of ridiculously high gross margins.  For some reason the 4S had superior margins and was much easier to produce than the 4.  Plus a large percentage of people were buying the top end 4S instead of the 4.  In addition there was no iPadMini which hurt Apple's margins in 2013.  What also hurt margins in 2013 was the increase in warranty and software accrual that deferred billions in revenue which was not the case in 2012.

 

If we see earnings growth back at 10-15% I can easily see the stock go back to the $625-$675 range. 

 

I think such earnings growth is possible in 2014.  First off by introducing the 5C instead of selling last years premium model at a discount the percentage of 5S units is up in comparison to the 5 last year.  The 5C also has healthy margins.  iPadAir sales also seemed very strong compared to last years iPad.  In 2012 it seemed like everyone wanted the Mini and that hurt the iPad sales, which brought down revenue, margin, and earnings.  This year I'm guessing the Air would have sold the most units.  I'm also guessing that more and more people are buying the higher memory versions of all iPad models.  My guess is iPhone and iPad average selling price will be up significantly compared to 2012.

post #44 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

The reason Apple stock dropped last year was because earnings growth went flat or NEGATIVE the last 4 Qtrs.
Q1'13 - flat
Q2'13 - minus 18%
Q3'13 - minus 20%
Q4'13 - minus 5%

So you're saying Apple's YoY net earnings show Apple earnings in 2013 were less then they earned in their respective 2012 quarters?

Apple’s net income growth:

 

2009-10: +70.1%

2010-11: +85.0%

2011-12: +61.0%

2012-13: –11.3%

 

Source: Form 10-K

 

Add: I see that sog35 provided EPS numbers above.

post #45 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

That is correct.

I think revenue grew about 8% from 2012 but earnings went down 10%.

2012 FY EPS - $44.16
2013 FY EPS - $39.63

2012 IMO was a total anomaly because of ridiculously high gross margins.  For some reason the 4S had superior margins and was much easier to produce than the 4.  Plus a large percentage of people were buying the top end 4S instead of the 4.  In addition there was no iPadMini which hurt Apple's margins in 2013.  What also hurt margins in 2013 was the increase in warranty and software accrual that deferred billions in revenue which was not the case in 2012.

If we see earnings growth back at 10-15% I can easily see the stock go back to the $625-$675 range. 

I think such earnings growth is possible in 2014.  First off by introducing the 5C instead of selling last years premium model at a discount the percentage of 5S units is up in comparison to the 5 last year.  The 5C also has healthy margins.  iPadAir sales also seemed very strong compared to last years iPad.  In 2012 it seemed like everyone wanted the Mini and that hurt the iPad sales, which brought down revenue, margin, and earnings.  This year I'm guessing the Air would have sold the most units.  I'm also guessing that more and more people are buying the higher memory versions of all iPad models.  My guess is iPhone and iPad average selling price will be up significantly compared to 2012.

I hadn't realized that. It's interesting that the stock has gone up over this past year despite lowered net earnings. I assume that takes into account buybacks and dividends.

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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post #46 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post


Not so sure about that. When Apple reported that blowout quarter in Jan 2012 I remember the clowns on CNBC being shocked at how good it was, because they had been using AT&T and Verizon as a gauge. Don't think that works anymore with so much of Apple's sales coming from overseas.

 

Especially with the other Chinese carriers coming online right at the introduction of the new phones back in September.  Something the article, which did mention NTT DoCoMo, failed to mention.  That extra boost from China Telecom and China Unicom having the phones right from the start, rather than three months later as was the case in previous years, should be significant for unit volumes.

I have enough money to last the rest of my life. Unless I buy something. - Jackie Mason
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I have enough money to last the rest of my life. Unless I buy something. - Jackie Mason
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post #47 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by gwmac View Post
 

What other company do you know where the stock will fall $14 on good news. Apple should be trading above $600 easily.

 

Good news. Yes.  China Mobile is huge.  But guess where the stock price was 6 months ago?  We were at $420.  The stock has been up 30% since then.  It has been up not because of strong earnings (both Q3 and Q4 had negative earnings growth YoY) but rather because of a strong 5S and Air release.  Also its been know for months that the ChinaMobile deal was pretty much 99% done.  Sorry to say the ChinaMobile deal was baked in at $550-$570.  But ChinaMobile results (sales) can move this stock to $800+ in a few years.

 

For Apple to reach $600 it has to show earnings growth.  PERIOD.  I'm guessing we will see 8-12% earnings growth next week Monday.  Then we should see the stock melt up to $625-$650 level by March.

 

If we don't see earnings growth things could get quite dicey.  We could test $500 again or stay at $520-$550 level.  Without earnings growth Wall Street won't allow Apple to have a PE greater than 13.

post #48 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

I hadn't realized that. It's interesting that the stock has gone up over this past year despite lowered net earnings. I assume that takes into account buybacks and dividends.

I think it’s probably fair to say that Apple is still quite substantially undervalued, but the market is still waiting for Cook to deliver some solid earnings growth numbers independent of financial engineering decisions such as dividends and share repurchases. The latter can help at the margin, but only if they seem consistent with Apple signaling prospects for future growth.

 

I have no doubt that will happen in 2014 (relative to 2013), but not at the 65%+ levels we saw in the past. To some extent, Apple was cursed by its own ridiculously supra-normal growth rates in 2009-12. That kind of success will likely be near-impossible to replicate. 

post #49 of 115

REGARDING: “upwards of 60" means close to 60.

 

REPLY: 

“Upwards” of 60 million means MORE THAN 60 million

 

From the New American Oxford Dictionary

PHRASES

upwards (or upward): of more than: upwards of 3,500 copies | “Gooden can throw the ball at upward of 95 miles per hour.”

post #50 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post


I hadn't realized that. It's interesting that the stock has gone up over this past year despite lowered net earnings. I assume that takes into account buybacks and dividends.

 

Buybacks and dividends helped alot.  But notice that the stock has been going up only in the past 6 months (from $420 to $570).  That coincides with the ChinaMobile deal and whispers of strong holiday sales for both the iPad and iPhone.

 

Looking at the entire iPhone and iPad lineup it screams to me that GROSS MARGINS were the priority.

 

5S - great margins because of using the same basic shell as the 5

5C - great margins because of plastic case is cheaper and easier to produce.

5S - more people will be willing to buy the top end 5S because the 5C is missing key tech features and is plastic.  If they released the 5 at $100 cheaper it would have hurt 5S sales.  Just like the 4S hurt the 5 sales during 2012 holiday quarter.

 

IMO the 5S/5C move was a stroke of genius.  The pricing was perfect to move the majority of people to buy the 5S (which generates higher revenue, gross margin, and profit). 

 

iPadAir - Amazing product.  Design is finally a match with the mini.

iPadMini Retina - increased price by $70 to increase margins.  Also made it a hard decision over the Air.  Just $100 will give you a bigger screen

 

The strategy is well thought out.  We shall see if it pays off in a week and the coming quarters. 

post #51 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by strask View Post

Not one analyst seem to say 60 million iPhones. Where does the number in the headline come from?

Interesting...

These are the souls Core Bluetooth that time men's tries...

Yea, though I walk through the iBeacon, I am not afraid...

There is a tide in the affairs of men.
Which, taken at the chrome browser , leads on to fortune;
Omitted, all the voyage of their life
Is bound in Galaxy 4 and in miseries.
On such a full sea are we now afloat,
And we must take the current when it serves,
Edited by Dick Applebaum - 1/20/14 at 10:59am
"...The calm is on the water and part of us would linger by the shore, For ships are safe in harbor, but that's not what ships are for."
- Michael Lille -
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"...The calm is on the water and part of us would linger by the shore, For ships are safe in harbor, but that's not what ships are for."
- Michael Lille -
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post #52 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

The strategy is well thought out.  We shall see if it pays off in a week and the coming quarters. 

 

That statement made me laugh.

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post #53 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post
 

 

That statement made me laugh.

 


Why?  even good strategies don't always produce great results.

 

The whole new lineup (5S/5C/Air/RetinaMini) all point to the goal of higher margins and nudging people to buy the flagship product of each line. 

post #54 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

Why?  even good strategies don't always produce great results.

 

Really?

 

All your statements in this thread have been well thought out. Pinpointed Apple's financial situation to a T. You've even revised some of your earlier thinking and done a fine job in casting the reality of Apple's situation.

 

And then... last statement.

 

In my opinion... all good strategies produce great results. That's what makes them great strategies. Of course you never know until you put the boat in the water.

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post #55 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post
 

 

Really?

 

All your statements in this thread have been well thought out. Pinpointed Apple's financial situation to a T. You've even revised some of your earlier thinking and done a fine job in casting the reality of Apple's situation.

 

And then... last statement.

 

In my opinion... all good strategies produce great results. That's what makes them great strategies. Of course you never know until you put the boat in the water.

 

In other words we won't know if its a good strategy until we get earnings next week and the next few quarters?

fair point.

 

I wonder what would happen if Apple just said F-this and went all out to gain market share.  I bet the stock would explode to $1000 but the company would be worse off long-term.

post #56 of 115
Dead meat. Apple shareholders are going to end up as dead meat when Apple's share price plummets to $500 on earnings. You people really don't get it. It has nothing to do with how many iPhones, iPads or iMacs Apple is selling. It's all about Apple's falling market share in everything. Wall Street absolutely hates companies with falling market share. It means that a company doesn't have a future. Apple is the wealthiest company on Wall Street that doesn't have a future. Tim Cook only vaguely mentions that Apple has some mysterious products in the pipeline. Yeah, I'm sure that really excites investors to rush out and buy Apple. HELL NO!

You got to throw those Wall Street vultures a few scraps of meat and bones to make them salivate. Google knows how to do it. Amazon knows how to do it. Apple doesn't know diddly about exciting investors and this is the result. A continually falling stock as the company sells more products than ever.
post #57 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Really?

All your statements in this thread have been well thought out. Pinpointed Apple's financial situation to a T. You've even revised some of your earlier thinking and done a fine job in casting the reality of Apple's situation.

And then... last statement.

In my opinion... all good strategies produce great results. That's what makes them great strategies. Of course you never know until you put the boat in the water.

Not necessarily.

1) If we're looking only at the short-term results of a "good strategy" that was devised for the long term then it may appear to not be successful.

2) The best strategies are subject to external factors. So even if we were to figure out The Ultimate Question the planet could get destroyed before you could relay that info.
Edited by SolipsismX - 1/20/14 at 12:15pm

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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post #58 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by Constable Odo View Post

Dead meat. Apple shareholders are going to end up as dead meat when Apple's share price plummets to $500 on earnings. You people really don't get it. It has nothing to do with how many iPhones, iPads or iMacs Apple is selling. It's all about Apple's falling market share in everything. Wall Street absolutely hates companies with falling market share. It means that a company doesn't have a future. Apple is the wealthiest company on Wall Street that doesn't have a future. Tim Cook only vaguely mentions that Apple has some mysterious products in the pipeline. Yeah, I'm sure that really excites investors to rush out and buy Apple. HELL NO!

You got to throw those Wall Street vultures a few scraps of meat and bones to make them salivate. Google knows how to do it. Amazon knows how to do it. Apple doesn't know diddly about exciting investors and this is the result. A continually falling stock as the company sells more products than ever.

 

did you forget to put /s

 

Stock is up 30% last 6 months.  Looks pretty alive to me. 

 

Market share is important but what is REALLY important is EARNINGS GROWTH.  If they can grow earnings 10-20% the stock will explode up to $650 level despite market share.  Apple already has 600,000,000 itunes users accounts and is adding 500,000 each day.  Plus apples users are premium buyers who spend $. 

post #59 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post


Not necessarily.

1) If we're looking only at the short-term results of a "good stately" that was devised for the long term then it may appear to not be successful.

2) The best strategies are subject to external factors. So even if we were to figure out The Ultimate Question the planet could get destroyed before you could relay that info.

 

Any "good" strategy in business is meant for the long term. Anyone with any knowledge about business knows that good strategies are for the long term.

 

Any "good" strategy won't sink the boat in the near term.

 

As far as the Ultimate Question... a good strategy would have taken planet destruction into account.

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post #60 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Any "good" strategy in business is meant for the long term. Anyone with any knowledge about business knows that good strategies are for the long term.

Any "good" strategy won't sink the boat in the near term.

There are plenty of short term "plans of action or policies designed to achieve an overall aim" in business, too. Most of these seem to be reoccurring, mundane business strategies which is probably why we typically don't talk about them.

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

Reply

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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post #61 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by strask View Post

Not one analyst seem to say 60 million iPhones. Where does the number in the headline come from?

Interesting...

Something sneaky is going on at AI...

It appears to be used intermittently.

Here's what I've discovered:

Sometimes...

A comment you post to an AI forum, such as this, is parsed for "adwords" and links to advertisers are added to words such as 'iPhones' in the first quoted post (on page 1 of this forum).

The interesting part is that the user who is making the post does not see these links.

However, if you log out and read the forum posts as a visitor, you will see these adlinks.


I first noticed this on another thread, using someone else's iPad -- I was not signed to AI. When I went to the forum I noticed that my post (quoted below), had links inserted in my text for the words "Core Bluetooth" and "iBeacons". I didn't include any links... So, I logged on to edit the text.

Examining my text, I found no links, cancelled the edit, then noticed that the links in my text were gone...

What's going on???

I signed out of AI and the links were back!


If you sign out from AI and link to the post you should be able see the add links added to my content, by AI -- without my knowledge or approval...


What if I had posted a bit about one of my grand kids -- and AI, had added a link to a site that is offensive: adds, porn, religion, politics...


Try logging out and looking at some of your posts...

Sol, did you know you posted a link for iPod cases (among other things) within your message???





And here are the associated links:


Here's the raw link for 'case in 2012'

http://api.viglink.com/api/click?format=go&key=9652589481f2c9e30f68cf5f19b3ef60&loc=http%3A%2F%2Fforums.appleinsider.com%2Ft%2F161643%2Fapple-may-have-sold-upwards-of-60-million-iphones-over-holiday-quarter%2F40%23post_2459853&v=1&exp=3%3AC34%3A14&mid=5316&type=H&libId=a76b9368-25d7-4e24-bb9a-d6935348116b&out=http%3A%2F%2Fviglink.pgpartner.com%2Frd.php%3Fr%3D5316%26m%3D1421046756%26q%3Dn%26rdgt%3D1390155841%26it%3D1390328641%26et%3D1390760641%26priceret%3D9.99%26pg%3D~~3%26k%3D7d66ae089d87a79a4f0458ecb8552531%26source%3Dfeed%26url%3Dhttp%253A%252F%252Fwww%252Eamazon%252Ecom%252Fdp%252FB00829CSLU%252Fref%253Dasc%255Fdf%255FB00829CSLU2873109%253Fsmid%253DA308R5P05RP10S%2526tag%253Dpgmp%252D550%252D01%252D20%2526linkCode%253Dasn%2526creative%253D395109%2526creativeASIN%253DB00829CSLU%26st%3Dfeed%26mt%3D~~~~~~~~n~~~&ref=http%3A%2F%2Fforums.appleinsider.com%2Ft%2F161643%2Fapple-may-have-sold-upwards-of-60-million-iphones-over-holiday-quarter&title=Apple%20may%20have%20sold%20upwards%20of%2060%20million%20iPhones%20over%20holiday%20quarter%20-%20Page%202&txt=%3Cspan%20id%3D%22yui_3_10_0_1_1390247265034_864%22%3Ecase%20%3C%2Fspan%3E%3Cspan%3Ein%20%3C%2Fspan%3E%3Cspan%3E2012%3C%2Fspan%3E&jsonp=vglnk_jsonp_13902473179958




Here's my original post:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

--I really don't want to go there, but...

In a way, you/we are all correct.

An iBeacon is a high-level BLE protocol developed by Apple. It has a very rigorous implementation -- basically it can identify itself and data that a listening device can use to determine how near it is to the iBeacon, That's It!

A BLE device can act as an iBeacon by implementing Apple's iBeacon protocol.


Sometimes a non-iBeacon BLE device is called a beacon (not to be confused with an iBeacon)

Also, sometimes an iBeacon is referred to as a beacon (not to be confused with a non-iBeacon beacon)...


Still with me?


There is a lower-level BLE protocol that Apple implements as Core Bluetooth.

Using this Core Bluetooth protocol, a BLE device can operate as [at least] one of 2 classes of device.

A Central device or a Peripheral device.

To make things interesting, the Bluetooth org defines a Central device as a Client and a Peripheral device as a Server.


Do you detect the workings of a committee, here?


...

Edited by Dick Applebaum - 1/20/14 at 12:00pm
"...The calm is on the water and part of us would linger by the shore, For ships are safe in harbor, but that's not what ships are for."
- Michael Lille -
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"...The calm is on the water and part of us would linger by the shore, For ships are safe in harbor, but that's not what ships are for."
- Michael Lille -
Reply
post #62 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post


There are plenty of short term "plans of action or policies designed to achieve an overall aim" in business, too. Most of these seem to be reoccurring, mundane business strategies which is probably why we typically don't talk about them.

 

... and they are all taken to ensure the future health of a company.

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post #63 of 115
@Sog35

At what point would you say tat AAPLhas undergone a complete technical breakdown and can subsequently be viewed like other stocks in its sector?

Or, is it such a high flyer like XOM and must be held to 9-13 PE forever ( unless it sells an order of magnitude more than usual?)

Just wondering, like my life depends on it 1wink.gif
What is really factored into the price is a kind of perpetual sense of disbelief that any company could be as good as Apple is. ~Retrogusto
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What is really factored into the price is a kind of perpetual sense of disbelief that any company could be as good as Apple is. ~Retrogusto
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post #64 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

... and they are all taken to ensure the future health of a company.

Sure, but it still can be short term and yet be a viable strategy. For example, eating lunch today is a short term goal, with the short term strategy of supplying nutrients to my boy despite the fact that I have to eat for my entire life. Furthermore, I plan to have a healthy meal which is a strategy I hope affords me both long and short term benefits.
Edited by SolipsismX - 1/20/14 at 11:35am

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

Reply

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

Reply
post #65 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post
 

 

Really?

 

All your statements in this thread have been well thought out. Pinpointed Apple's financial situation to a T. You've even revised some of your earlier thinking and done a fine job in casting the reality of Apple's situation.

 

And then... last statement.

 

In my opinion... all good strategies produce great results. That's what makes them great strategies. Of course you never know until you put the boat in the water.

 

Depends, you could be right all the way to correctly predict big earnings and yet the stock could go down for some pointless reason.

post #66 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by palomine View Post

@Sog35

At what point would you say tat AAPLhas undergone a complete technical breakdown and can subsequently be viewed like other stocks in its sector?
Or, is it such a high flyer like XOM and must be held to 9-13 PE forever ( unless it sells an order of magnitude more than usual?)
Just wondering, like my life depends on it 1wink.gif

 

I dont think Apple PE will go more than 15, Apple is in a "show me" mode for now.  PE expansions is base on "hope" of growth, Apple would need to introduce new caterories for that.

post #67 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou View Post
 

 

Depends, you could be right all the way to correctly predict big earnings and yet the stock could go down for some pointless reason.

 

It depends. If your strategy is to make the stock go up then you failed in your strategy. I doubt if Tim Cook's strategy is to make the stock go up. I would think that he just wants to keep Apple very healthy.

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post #68 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post


Sure, but it still can be short term and yet be a viable strategy. For example, eating lunch today is a short term goal, with the short term strategy of supplying nutrients to my boy despite the fact that I have to eat for my entire life. Furthermore, I plan to have a healthy meal which is a strategy I hope affords me both long and short term benefits.

 

I cannot think of one short term goal that does not have a longer term consequence.

 

Try not eating for a few days.

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post #69 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

 

Buybacks and dividends helped alot.  But notice that the stock has been going up only in the past 6 months (from $420 to $570).  That coincides with the ChinaMobile deal and whispers of strong holiday sales for both the iPad and iPhone.

 

Looking at the entire iPhone and iPad lineup it screams to me that GROSS MARGINS were the priority.

 

5S - great margins because of using the same basic shell as the 5

5C - great margins because of plastic case is cheaper and easier to produce.

5S - more people will be willing to buy the top end 5S because the 5C is missing key tech features and is plastic.  If they released the 5 at $100 cheaper it would have hurt 5S sales.  Just like the 4S hurt the 5 sales during 2012 holiday quarter.

 

IMO the 5S/5C move was a stroke of genius.  The pricing was perfect to move the majority of people to buy the 5S (which generates higher revenue, gross margin, and profit). 

 

iPadAir - Amazing product.  Design is finally a match with the mini.

iPadMini Retina - increased price by $70 to increase margins.  Also made it a hard decision over the Air.  Just $100 will give you a bigger screen

 

The strategy is well thought out.  We shall see if it pays off in a week and the coming quarters. 

 

Margins will be key indeed. I expect YoY 5% to 15% income growth but more importantly some kind of margins increase. Apple made the bet of rising margins, so if unit sales didnt went down EPS should rise.

post #70 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

I cannot think of one short term goal that does not have a longer term consequence.

That's the nature of all things; your dictating your future. It's a short term goal to write that essay paper for HS English because there is a longer term goal (perhaps 6 to 8 weeks) of getting an A in the class, a longer term goal of passing the class, a longer term goal of graduating with a diploma, a longer term goal of getting into a certain college and/or getting a scholarship, all likely culminating in a long term goal of having the job and life you have pictured yourself doing since you were a kid. It still doesn't make writing an essay a long term goal.
Quote:
Try not eating for a few days.

That's exactly why it's a short term goal.

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

Reply

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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post #71 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post
 

 

It depends. If your strategy is to make the stock go up then you failed in your strategy. I doubt if Tim Cook's strategy is to make the stock go up. I would think that he just wants to keep Apple very healthy.


I was under the impression we were talking about strategies on predicting earnings. On the Apple side,  Cook strategy is to position Apple at the high end, so premium brand with high quality but expensive products. We will see the effect on unit sales and margins next week.

post #72 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post


That's the nature of all things; your dictating your future. It's a short term goal to write that essay paper for HS English because there is a longer term goal (perhaps 6 to 8 weeks) of getting an A in the class, a longer term goal of passing the class, a longer term goal of graduating with a diploma, a longer term goal of getting into a certain college and/or getting a scholarship, all likely culminating in a long term goal of having the job and life you have pictured yourself doing since you were a kid. It still doesn't make writing an essay a long term goal.
That's exactly why it's a short term goal.

 

Now you've changed the subject... we weren't talking about goals... we were talking about strategies. The short term goals of exams and eating are a long term strategy for work and life.

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post #73 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by palomine View Post

@Sog35

At what point would you say tat AAPLhas undergone a complete technical breakdown and can subsequently be viewed like other stocks in its sector?

Or, is it such a high flyer like XOM and must be held to 9-13 PE forever ( unless it sells an order of magnitude more than usual?)

Just wondering, like my life depends on it 1wink.gif

 

They will get a respectable PE once they show earnings growth of 10-20%.

 

Even during their mega growth phase in 2011-2012 their PE still hovered around 15-20.  Wall street does discount Apple because they are viewed as mostly a hardware maker.  OF course that can changed with growing software/apps sales.

 

If they grow 10-20% I could see a 15 PE.  That would put the price at $650-$675

 

EPS for FY 2013 - $39.63

EPS for FY 2014 with 10% earnings growth - $43.59

$43.59 x 15 PE = $653.85 share price

 

Note EPS for FY 2012 was $44.16

post #74 of 115

Uh oh this is good news, so yes of course Apple's stock will drop next week if a number this large is released :) Analysts are almost always wrong anyway, they're just "guessers" and some are better at guessing than others. Good job Apple if true though!

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post #75 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Now you've changed the subject... we weren't talking about goals... we were talking about strategies. The short term goals of exams and eating are a long term strategy for work and life.

There is a goal in each strategy and a strategy in each goal if they are to be obtained. The short term strategy is to write the essay as effectively as possible in the shortest amount of time for a given teacher for the goal of earning an A on the paper. The goal in life is usually to be happy, comfortable, well off, rich, or whatever else people envision will occur.

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post #76 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou View Post
 


I was under the impression we were talking about strategies on predicting earnings. On the Apple side,  Cook strategy is to position Apple at the high end, so premium brand with high quality but expensive products. We will see the effect on unit sales and margins next week.

 

I would imagine that Cook knows that he can't grow the company indefinitely with the current line-up. It will be very interesting to see what new products emerge and how successful they will be.

 

One of Steve's quotes:

"People think focus means saying yes to the thing you've got to focus on. But that's not what it means at all. It means saying no to the hundred other good ideas that there are. You have to pick carefully. I'm actually as proud of the things we haven't done as the things I have done. Innovation is saying "no" to 1,000 things."

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post #77 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

 

They will get a respectable PE once they show earnings growth of 10-20%.

 

Even during their mega growth phase in 2011-2012 their PE still hovered around 15-20.  Wall street does discount Apple because they are viewed as mostly a hardware maker.  OF course that can changed with growing software/apps sales.

 

If they grow 10-20% I could see a 15 PE.  That would put the price at $650-$675

 

EPS for FY 2013 - $39.63

EPS for FY 2014 with 10% earnings growth - $43.59

$43.59 x 15 PE = $653.85 share price

 

Note EPS for FY 2012 was $44.16

 

maybe I am too bullish but my prediction for 2014 EPS are around $50 on 15% income growth on top of a 3-4% increase in margins.

post #78 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post


There is a goal in each strategy and a strategy in each goal if they are to be obtained. The short term strategy is to write the essay as effectively as possible in the shortest amount of time for a given teacher for the goal of earning an A on the paper. The goal in life is usually to be happy, comfortable, well off, rich, or whatever else people envision will occur.

 

Well, at least you finally agreed with me.

 

A successful strategy is to get an A. Anything less than an A shows that your strategy wasn't successful.

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post #79 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou View Post
 

 

Last year I was pretty spot on on the number using VZ number and market share estimates. CNBC have a lot of guess and some of there staff are very bias, so you need to know which ones are more fair because they will always have anti-Apple talks no matter what.

 

I am hoping we get 60+ or we will have yet another year of growth decelaration in unit sales. On the other hand, YoY margins should be better. Market share improvements in the US points to a big number but I still need to see a sale sample (VZ) to make up my mind.


why do you think YoY margins will be better? Manufacturing 5S with Touch ID is cheaper than 5 before year? sounds strange :)

post #80 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Well, at least you finally agreed with me.

A successful strategy is to get an A. Anything less than an A shows that your strategy wasn't successful.

I didn't agree with you and I don't think I can be any more clear about how writing an essay paper is a very, very short aim compared to an entire life's objective.

The bottom line is there are excellent strategies that achieve the desired goal in a short duration… and you use employ them constantly without even (consciously) thinking about them. I bet if you actually analyzed your mundane decisions over the next hour you find yourself making strategic decisions you never once considered to be of value and yet they are as part of the very fabric that gets you through your day-to-day activities.

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"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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