or Connect
AppleInsider › Forums › Investors › AAPL Investors › Apple projected to have sold 25M iPads in record holiday quarter
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:

Apple projected to have sold 25M iPads in record holiday quarter

post #1 of 27
Thread Starter 
Last fall's introduction of the iPad Air and iPad mini with Retina display may have helped sales of Apple's tablets achieve double-digit year-over-year gains, according to pre-earnings expectations from Wall Street.

iPad mini


A survey of 20 buy-side investors conducted by Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster last week indicates consensus sales estimates of 24 million to 25 million units. If accurate, that would mean a 10 percent bump in sales from the 22.9 million units Apple sold in the first quarter of fiscal 2013.

Munster's consensus numbers are mirrored by those of analysts recently polled by Fortune's Philip Elmer-Dewitt.

Sales may have been even higher if not for severely constrained supplies of the new Retina display-equipped iPad mini, which faced shortages lasting well into December. Combined with the late street date of the iPad Air --?which did not hit shelves until Nov. 1 --?Apple's tablet lineup was not at full strength until the quarter was nearly over.

Market research firm Consumer Intelligence Research Partners reported on Monday that while the iPad Air has taken an overwhelming share of the market for Apple's full-sized iPads, the previous-generation iPad mini continued to outsell its newer counterpart 25 percent to 16 percent. The disparity could be attributed to the high-resolution model's supply issues, or it may reflect renewed consumer interest in the older variant after its price was cut to $299.

CIRP also noted that the iPad's average sale price is expected to rise, reversing a trend that has seen the slate's ASP decline each quarter since 2011.

Apple will unveil their first quarter financials next Monday, Jan. 27. AppleInsider will have full, live coverage.
post #2 of 27
ANALysts. Always wrong.
post #3 of 27

lets hope that this time it will be recording quarter also in eyes of Wall Street and not like year ago, when it was also recording quarter but everyone knows what happened! :)

im little bit worry after these "recording quarter" articles, maybe expectations are too high.

post #4 of 27
I know how some like to talk about why marketshare doesn't matter, but it does. If Apple's tablet sales did indeed go up by 10%, but the markets overall sales were up 30% (that's just a guess), then Apple's marketshare would have taken a large hit again.

I remember how guys here would mention that Apple's marketshare was 90%, then 80%, then 70%, etc. Now those same people say it doesn't matter. It may not matter much if most of those Android sales are $100, or less, selling into markets without effective app stores, or can't effectively use apps, like some cheap Android phones.

But if not, it's a concern.
post #5 of 27

Last year was the best quarter ever by any public traded company (by revenue). The stock tanked.

My bet? At least 30 million iPads, and the stop will fall 10%, blow 500$. Why? People will start waring thermostats on their wrists. That's why.

post #6 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

I know how some like to talk about why marketshare doesn't matter, but it does. If Apple's tablet sales did indeed go up by 10%, but the markets overall sales were up 30% (that's just a guess), then Apple's marketshare would have taken a large hit again.

I remember how guys here would mention that Apple's marketshare was 90%, then 80%, then 70%, etc. Now those same people say it doesn't matter. It may not matter much if most of those Android sales are $100, or less, selling into markets without effective app stores, or can't effectively use apps, like some cheap Android phones.

But if not, it's a concern.

Of course it is. 

 

Everyone single company on the PC/Smartphone/tablet/Auto/TV/home appliances is going with Android. Apple is fighting against every single one of them. It's hard, and they will succeed, but it won't go past 20% on any of those markets once they saturate (or close). In the process, it will be even lower (Android explosive growth, just like smartphones).

 

I doubt Apple even has 1% Market share in Europe (if you do not count UK and some nordic countries).

 

Apple would benefit immensely if Microsoft or Blackberry got their act together, no? Instead of being the strongest ecosystem on 15 to 20% of devices Vs 80 to 85% Android (making that ecosystem almost as strong), it would be iOS (20%) Vs Android 40% Vs Windows 30% Vs others.

 

Apple would have the overwhelming power on that situation.

post #7 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

I know how some like to talk about why marketshare doesn't matter, but it does. If Apple's tablet sales did indeed go up by 10%, but the markets overall sales were up 30% (that's just a guess), then Apple's marketshare would have taken a large hit again.

I remember how guys here would mention that Apple's marketshare was 90%, then 80%, then 70%, etc. Now those same people say it doesn't matter. It may not matter much if most of those Android sales are $100, or less, selling into markets without effective app stores, or can't effectively use apps, like some cheap Android phones.

But if not, it's a concern.

Apple reinvented the tablet market so a initial marketshare of 90% wasn't surprising. That market now has multiple players so marketshare is naturally going to drop. I'd rather have 70% of a big pie versus 90% of a small one. As long as sales keep increasing I wouldn't be concerned, plus I think many that purchased a cheapo Android tablet will eventually graduate to a iPad.
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
Reply
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
Reply
post #8 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

I know how some like to talk about why marketshare doesn't matter, but it does. If Apple's tablet sales did indeed go up by 10%, but the markets overall sales were up 30% (that's just a guess), then Apple's marketshare would have taken a large hit again.

I remember how guys here would mention that Apple's marketshare was 90%, then 80%, then 70%, etc. Now those same people say it doesn't matter. It may not matter much if most of those Android sales are $100, or less, selling into markets without effective app stores, or can't effectively use apps, like some cheap Android phones.

But if not, it's a concern.

I would have to agree. I think what we will see, even though as a single supplier Apple shipped more tables than any other company and their individual sale are most likely up YoY. Base on what I saw, there were numerous companies selling very cheap android tables in the range of $50 to $100 this pass holiday season. If these companies somehow sold lots of these crap products you could see some significant increase on over sales of tables 

 

We already know the analysis lump anything running android into the table market segments to make the total market actually look bigger than it is. These guys do not care if the product actually works and the consumer is actually using it.

post #9 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

I know how some like to talk about why marketshare doesn't matter, but it does. If Apple's tablet sales did indeed go up by 10%, but the markets overall sales were up 30% (that's just a guess), then Apple's marketshare would have taken a large hit again.

I remember how guys here would mention that Apple's marketshare was 90%, then 80%, then 70%, etc. Now those same people say it doesn't matter. It may not matter much if most of those Android sales are $100, or less, selling into markets without effective app stores, or can't effectively use apps, like some cheap Android phones.

But if not, it's a concern.

It's only a concern if Apple is losing market share due to decreasing sales and not because the market is expanding faster than Apple can. It's hard for one company to gain market share vs dozens and dozens of competitors.
post #10 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

I know how some like to talk about why marketshare doesn't matter, but it does. If Apple's tablet sales did indeed go up by 10%, but the markets overall sales were up 30% (that's just a guess), then Apple's marketshare would have taken a large hit again.

I remember how guys here would mention that Apple's marketshare was 90%, then 80%, then 70%, etc. Now those same people say it doesn't matter. It may not matter much if most of those Android sales are $100, or less, selling into markets without effective app stores, or can't effectively use apps, like some cheap Android phones.

But if not, it's a concern.

 

With due respect, it's not a concern to me.  True, it looks like Apple's market share of tablets is decreasing from an iPod level up in the 90s down to something lower (50s?), but still higher than its iPhone market share.  Whatever its iPad market share ends up at, I'm not concerned that the iPad is going away.  It's a fantastic platform, rapidly growing user community, and progressively "stickier".  I guess some of you are concerned that the iPad will disappear, killed at the hands of Android?  Doesn't seem plausible to me; I'm not concerned.

 
On the other hand, while market share is a valid metric, it's only one metric.  From what I hear, the iPad usage share and profit share are still astronomical.  If I were invested in one of Apple's competitors, I would be concerned.  If a consumer doesn't use a gadget, there's no stickiness at all.  If a company makes no profit, its future is far from assured.  As it is, I'm happy with Apple's growth prospects, and I'm neither surprised nor concerned by the competition.
post #11 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post

It's only a concern if Apple is losing market share due to decreasing sales and not because the market is expanding faster than Apple can. It's hard for one company to gain market share vs dozens and dozens of competitors.
This. Also, how the heck do we even know what the total tablet market is when no other companies reliably report sales. All we have to go on is 3rd party firms but their data can't really be considered reliable. Especially when their figures include "white box" and other very cheap tablets. Apple certainly isn't competing with that.
post #12 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by pedromartins View Post
 

Last year was the best quarter ever by any public traded company (by revenue). The stock tanked.

My bet? At least 30 million iPads, and the stop will fall 10%, blow 500$. Why? People will start waring thermostats on their wrists. That's why.

 

No.  It went down because FY2013 earnings was down 10% compared to FY2012

post #13 of 27

25m is not very impressive for a quarter that was called "the Christmas's of the ipad".  But I think the mixed of ipad2/ipad air/ipad mini/ipad mini w.retina if going to be more favorable than last year for margins.

 

I think the Analyst's are trying to be conservative to avoid a sell off at earnings.  25m ipads and 55m iphones is bad if you expect Apple to be back in growth mode. What I would like to see is 30m+ ipads and 60m+ iphones.


Edited by herbapou - 1/22/14 at 8:28am
post #14 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by delreyjones View Post

With due respect, it's not a concern to me.  True, it looks like Apple's market share of tablets is decreasing from an iPod level up in the 90s down to something lower (50s?), but still higher than its iPhone market share.  Whatever its iPad market share ends up at, I'm not concerned that the iPad is going away.  It's a fantastic platform, rapidly growing user community, and progressively "stickier".  I guess some of you are concerned that the iPad will disappear, killed at the hands of Android?  Doesn't seem plausible to me; I'm not concerned.
 
On the other hand, while market share is a valid metric, it's only one metric.  From what I hear, the iPad usage share and profit share are still astronomical.  If I were invested in one of Apple's competitors, I would be concerned.  If a consumer doesn't use a gadget, there's no stickiness at all.  If a company makes no profit, its future is far from assured.  As it is, I'm happy with Apple's growth prospects, and I'm neither surprised nor concerned by the competition.

But are you concerned?
post #15 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

 

No.  It went down because FY2013 earnings was down 10% compared to FY2012

 

indeed. They did had growth in unit sales, but margins went down so much it resulted in lower YoY EPS.

post #16 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou View Post
 

 

indeed. They did had growth in unit sales, but margins went down so much it resulted in lower YoY EPS.

 

As much as everyone wants to blame the stock price to Wall Street and Media manipulators the truth is there were fundamental reasons why the stock went down last year.  Its low point of $385 happened twice after earnings was reported.  EPS was down an amazing 18% and 20% YoY.  Those are massive declines.  It wasn't until they reported a 5% decline in Oct that it broke above $500 for good.

 

Also I never thought $700 was a reasonable price during 2012.  That level could only be sustained during 2012/2013 with EPS growth rates of 20-30%.  Of course we got the opposite. 

 

Right now I think a fair price is $540-$570 range with flat earnings growth and increased div/buybacks in future years.  But if we achieve 10-20% EPS growth I can see $625-$675 range.

 

I'm expecting 5-10% EPS growth for holiday Qtr and stock price of $600-$650 by March 1st

post #17 of 27

What? LOL.  Apple has 70% of the global smartphone search market share and 85% of the global mobile commerce marketshare.  Those are the only metrics that matter when determining the size of the smart phone market, not unit sales.  The unit sales numbers have been greatly distorted by industry research companies including many devices into the market that should not be considered smart devices either due to their limited capabilities or that the user never uses the smart capabilities on the mobile device.  The "real" smart phone market is actually much smaller than industry research firms would  have you believe.  And, Apple's global market share of the "real" smart phone market is somewhere between 70%-85%.  

post #18 of 27
All I really want to see out of Apple over the next 5 years is 15-20% growth. Consistent growth is Apples current challenge. I would expect no more from Apple than this mainly because they remain supply constrained. Supplying the market with 200 million devices a quarter is no small challenge and that is what they will be looking at if they succeed. Their bank account will be just silly by then. Hopefully, by then interest rates will have grown to 3-4% and the interest income alone would be around 8 billion per year.
post #19 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by Macnewsjunkie View Post

All I really want to see out of Apple over the next 5 years is 15-20% growth. Consistent growth is Apples current challenge. I would expect no more from Apple than this mainly because they remain supply constrained. Supplying the market with 200 million devices a quarter is no small challenge and that is what they will be looking at if they succeed. Their bank account will be just silly by then. Hopefully, by then interest rates will have grown to 3-4% and the interest income alone would be around 8 billion per year.

 

do you mean 15-20% unit sold growth, revenue growth, or EPS?

 

with 20% EPS growth this stock will blow pass $1000 in 5 years

post #20 of 27

This was an iPad Christmas indeed!

post #21 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

I know how some like to talk about why marketshare doesn't matter, but it does. If Apple's tablet sales did indeed go up by 10%, but the markets overall sales were up 30% (that's just a guess), then Apple's marketshare would have taken a large hit again.

I remember how guys here would mention that Apple's marketshare was 90%, then 80%, then 70%, etc. Now those same people say it doesn't matter. It may not matter much if most of those Android sales are $100, or less, selling into markets without effective app stores, or can't effectively use apps, like some cheap Android phones.

But if not, it's a concern.

 

First off what is market share?

Well here's a good article on how it's calculated. 

It's different from user base and may explain why 95% of computers (desktop/laptop category) still belong to Windows of any flavor, despite some recent market share losses.

 

Secondly, much of these iPad losses in market share come from vendors known as "other", as much as 40%.  DED had a reason, in some of his previous postings, where that category was invented out of thin air. There were even some rumors where cheap TV dongles in Asia were showing up as tablet sales. Furthermore, those white box tablets aren't even meant and do not even compete for the same users as the iPad. Sure one can flood the market with these cheap devices but what effect does that have on Apple's iPad? Virtually none, since the iPad continues to be sold in higher and higher numbers very year. And let's not get started on usage share, actual statistics where real people actually use the product. To my knowledge Apple still dominates that category.

 

Finally I would be concerned if developers and content creators were running away from the iPad.  That is clearly not the case since Apple's two biggest competitors actually write and keep on supporting apps on their platform. I'm talking about Google and Microsoft of course.

post #22 of 27
User engagement with the product should be the overriding metric of interest. Apple continues to excel in all such market research. On-line user activity data is reality, and vastly superior to 3rd parties' "research" of tablet sales.
post #23 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

I know how some like to talk about why marketshare doesn't matter, but it does. If Apple's tablet sales did indeed go up by 10%, but the markets overall sales were up 30% (that's just a guess), then Apple's marketshare would have taken a large hit again.

I remember how guys here would mention that Apple's marketshare was 90%, then 80%, then 70%, etc. Now those same people say it doesn't matter. It may not matter much if most of those Android sales are $100, or less, selling into markets without effective app stores, or can't effectively use apps, like some cheap Android phones.

But if not, it's a concern.

Noted!

But I would counter with this theory:

Last year Apple updated iOS (its mobile OS) to 64-bit, and released a 64-bit APU for iPhone 5S, iPad Air and iPad Mini Retina.

While the iPhone 5S can take some advantage of the A7-- the iPads, pushing more bits for larger screens, have more benefit. But still, there is not enough RAM or SSD, and associated apps to exploit the 64-bit APU.

That's today!

Why, then did Apple do it?

IMO, the 64-bit APU and iOS sets a threshold for future iDevices and iDevice apps. This could mean:
  • a significantly larger screen iPhone Phablet? (I really hate that word)
  • a retina iPad Mini as an alternative to an iPhone
  • a new AppleTV
  • a iPad Pro with Pro class RAM, SSD and apps (likely, [at least 2] multiple concurrent windows)

Currently, you don't get a 1080 HD signal over cable -- it is a highly-compressed 720 HD signal. You can get a higher quality signal through AppleTV or AirPlay. Soon, we will have 4K for streaming, downloads and content.

4K TVs are likely to become widespread (and affordable) this year.

Now, running through all this is the fact that the Retina iPads already have the capability to run 2K video. What if this years models of Retina iPads have support for 3K or even 4K in the iPad Pro and AppleTV.

An AppleTV with an A7X APU, 802.11ac, more RAM and SSD could be a broadcast hub from any iPhones iPads, Macs or TV sources to any iPhones, Macs, iPads or TVs.

Likely, Apple would initially implement this as one-to-one or one-to-many -- but many-to-many could be supported as the tech evolves.

By beefing up the AppleTV and any new iPads Apple could lead the 4K revolution into the home.

Needless to say, there is additional potential for enterprise, creatives, medical, education...


And Apple already has most of the puzzle pieces that the competition cannot match: 64-bit OSes, 64-bit processors, ecosystem and install base of hardware...

Yes, Virginia... Santa will bring you an iPad for Christmas 2014 (in July).
Edited by Dick Applebaum - 1/22/14 at 5:21pm
"Swift generally gets you to the right way much quicker." - auxio -

"The perfect [birth]day -- A little playtime, a good poop, and a long nap." - Tomato Greeting Cards -
Reply
"Swift generally gets you to the right way much quicker." - auxio -

"The perfect [birth]day -- A little playtime, a good poop, and a long nap." - Tomato Greeting Cards -
Reply
post #24 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by VL-Tone View Post
 

This was an iPad Christmas indeed!

I bough three iPad Airs on Thanksgiving day.

post #25 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by DCJ001 View Post

I bough three iPad Airs on Thanksgiving day.

I thought babies went on tree tops not iPads. lol.gif
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
Reply
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
Reply
post #26 of 27

With 20% earnings growth it should be above 1,000 in two years.  Apple would be over 1,000 now if the market thought Apple was going to grow by 20% over the next 5 years.

post #27 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by pedromartins View Post
 

I doubt Apple even has 1% Market share in Europe (if you do not count UK and some nordic countries).

 

 

In Spain, Samsung and Sony phones are given away and constantly pushed by the mobile phone companies. Vodafone had been hounding me about getting a Sony Experia or Samsung Galaxy phone for months. I kept telling them I wanted an iPhone 5s (once available). Their response was that it wasn't available (once it was), that it was Apple's fault, but that instead of something expensive, I could get a Samsung Galaxy or Sony Experia for free. In the end, after a number of attempts and constant Samsung offers (including one time when the customer service people laughed when I asked for an iPhone), I got a 5s for the very expensive price of 19 euros.

 

Amongst people I know who have Android phones, the perception seems to be that the iPhone is too expensive. Now I understand why, in spite of the fact that 19 euros is the most I've ever paid for a top of the line iPhone (the previous ones were free). The Samsung campaign to promote that perception is definitely working and affecting market share for sure, with great help from the companies they subsidize and give incentives to who push Samsung and Sony with a vengeance (or is it that they can't even give them away?).

 

This might have something to do with European market share, even though I think it's definitely much higher than 1% and probably even quite high in certain markets (apart from the UK and some nordic countries as you mentioned). The perception though has a flip side in that, at least, the "expensive" item is still associated with higher quality, and therefore, is still a very desirable item versus what one can "afford" or was "given" by your mobile phone operator. This quietly works in favor of Apple in my opinion.

 

Just pondering...

New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:
  Return Home
  Back to Forum: AAPL Investors
AppleInsider › Forums › Investors › AAPL Investors › Apple projected to have sold 25M iPads in record holiday quarter