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Carl Icahn calls Apple a 'no brainer' investment as his stake grows to over $3B - Page 4

post #121 of 130
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

There are many high-end and luxury brands that did well in 2013.  Tiffany & Co went up 50% in 2013.

You need to change the narrative if Wall Street is stuck in market share game.   You need guys in PR, Media relations, BOD, Exec Committee who know how to talk big things like the CEO of Amazon.  Its a game.  You need guys who know how to play it.

I'll give you an example: Earnings Calls.  Apple needs to innovate there.  Why the hell are we still stuck listening to an audio only presentation once a quarter?  Apple needs to have a video earnings call.  Show all those beautiful graphs that show Apple unit growth, web share, profits vs competitors, growth in China, ect.  It would be so much better for investors/analysis/media to see a video presentation.

Apple has been doing fine for the last 10-15 years without the WS distraction. In addition Amazon is out in force to distract WS from looking at their numbers.
post #122 of 130
sog35—you keep saying, "All Icahn wants..." If it's such a small thing, why is Icahn making such a big deal of it?
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post #123 of 130
Quote:
Originally Posted by Benjamin Frost View Post

sog35—you keep saying, "All Icahn wants..." If it's such a small thing, why is Icahn making such a big deal of it?

 

$16B is nothing to sneeze about.

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post #124 of 130
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post


Apple has been doing fine for the last 10-15 years without the WS distraction. In addition Amazon is out in force to distract WS from looking at their numbers.

 

Its not about distracting.  Its about SELLING.  Its about TELLING THE TRUTH.

 

There is so much NEGATIVE horse sheet about Apple in the Media, in Wall Street, everywhere.  Apple has FOUR OPPORTUNITIES a year to set the record straight.  They need to take advantage of it.  You need to DEFEND the company!!!  Apple isn't hiding anything.  But they need to shout how great they are doing! At least during earnings calls.

 

They really should do video earnings calls.  If you listened to the earnings call in Oct the CFO was talking about margins.  They were down to about 37%.  But the CFO FAILED TO SAY WHY.  He failed to say it was because they accrued more for warranty expense and also deferred revenue for the free software/OS.  In fact one of the analysis on the Q&A was the one who finally brought it up and CFO explained this.  WHY!!!! This is total failure.  Gross Margins are one of the most important metrics for Apple.  Wall Street has being crying about GM ever since late 2012.  Yet the CFO did not have an explanation ready!!! WTF.

 

If they had a video presentation he could have illustrated with a graph what the gross margin would have been on a pro-forma basis compared to YoY.  If would have shown the gross margin would have be 40%+ without the extra accruals and deferred items.  That would instill confidence that Apple is improving margins. 

 

Its not about telling LIES.  Its about telling the TRUTH.  If Apple isn't going to defend Apple who is?  Its fans? Investors?  I'm sick of hearing all the LIES and HORSESH-T that gets spread in the media and wall st.  Its time to play the game.  Tell the truth Steve Jobs did this.  If a reporter wrote so BS article he would actually call them up yell some scary sheet at them.  Cook needs to do this or hire some dudes to do this.

 

YOU NEED TO DEFEND THE COMPANY. PERIOD.

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post #125 of 130
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

$16B is nothing to sneeze about.


If it's nothing to sneeze about, why do you say "All Icahn wants..."?
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post #126 of 130
Quote:
Originally Posted by Benjamin Frost View Post


If it's nothing to sneeze about, why do you say "All Icahn wants..."?

 

cause its a reasonable amount considering that Apple has $170B in the bank and generates $50B each year

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post #127 of 130
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

cause its a reasonable amount considering that Apple has $170B in the bank and generates $50B each year

So in fact, what Icahn wants is not a small thing, but a substantial change. By saying "All Icahn wants" implies that his proposal is modest and won't make much difference, when this isn't the case.
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post #128 of 130
He is simply trying to manipulate the market to suit himself. I thought there were rules against that.

Nothing to see here apart from a greedy self interested capitalist
post #129 of 130
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marvin View Post


You need to have an idea of what it is worth to make the assessment that it's undervalued so what should Apple's market cap be and why? The value comes from traders looking for gains. What's in it for a trader to buy Apple stock at $700? If there's no incentive for someone to buy at $700, it's not going to reach $700. If they buy back shares, the price goes up but that's not raising the market cap on its own.

Buying back shares doesn't necessarily raise the value placed on the company by traders (the market cap). It might create some upward momentum but it might not.

Apple's net income fell in 2013 to $37b. I expect Q1 2014 might show some gains over the year ago quarter but if not, the expectation going forward should be that they'll bring in roughly $40b per year. Say this keeps up for 5 years and they make another $200b and this increases their ~$140b cash, does that increase their market cap at all? The current value has to already assume this is the case anyway.

What event is going to raise Apple's market cap? Growth is slowing down. There's no existing major hardware market left to tackle that would grow their income significantly.

I suppose if they keep hauling in $40b every year for the next 20 years and never spend it, their cash/securities would be crazy but I don't think they'll do that. It's possible though as they've not really indicated what they want to spend it on.

Here's the thing that I don't get about the buyback urgency. Assuming Apple is taking shares off the table, there's no missed opportunity for them if they don't speed up the buyback. The missed opportunity is for remaining investors. However, if the company is undervalued then the market will eventually correct itself at which point Apple still has the cash/securities AND the share price is up.

If the share price stays the same or goes down after a year, what difference does it make buying it now or in a year's time? If it goes up, they don't need to buy it back.
They're valued lower than Apple.

Um, no, they are not valued lower.  AMZN has a p/e of 1500 and Google has a p/e of 29.  Apple has a p/e of 9 x cash.

post #130 of 130
Quote:
Originally Posted by robbiuno View Post

He is simply trying to manipulate the market to suit himself. I thought there were rules against that.

That's evident here too:
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 
No one really cares about Market Cap. i don't care if the market cap is the same but if the stock price goes up 30% I'd be really happy.

In other words, it doesn't matter if Apple's value goes up, it's all about how much their own stock is worth. This counters the rhetoric about Apple being undervalued - in reality it doesn't matter, they just want the price up so they can profit. When trying to convince other people it's a good idea, it's about how Apple would save hundreds of millions while spending billions and that's basic math about why it's good. Or how it benefits all shareholders when it's really just the ones that know about an increased buyback. Why would anyone sell their stock if they knew Apple had plans to accelerate a buyback?

Stock buybacks are described as a way of 'giving money back to the shareholders' because that's what's happening. This doesn't really benefit Apple unless they were to reissue the shares they bought back later on at a higher price. There's already a large commitment to buying back shares, if Apple has no other plans for the money then they can do it at a later date.

If people are genuinely interested in being long-term investors, what's the rush?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jack Baker 
Um, no, they are not valued lower. AMZN has a p/e of 1500 and Google has a p/e of 29. Apple has a p/e of 9 x cash.

That ratio's for growth potential - potential isn't current value. The overall present company value is their market cap and Apple's is higher than any other company:

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/marketcapitalization.asp

"Definition of 'Market Capitalization'
The total dollar market value of all of a company's outstanding shares."
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