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Notes of interest from Apple's Q1 2014 conference call

post #1 of 112
Thread Starter 
Apple posted its best quarter ever on Monday, driven by its highest-ever iPhone and iPad sales, as well as one of the best Mac quarters ever. Following the company's earnings release, Apple executives took part in a conference call to discuss the quarter, and notes of interest follow.

Participating in Tuesday's call were Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook, Chief Financial Officer Peter Oppenheimer, and Corporate Comptroller Luca Maestri.

Apple's iPhone business



iPhone sales growth strong year over year in Japan, thanks to launch with NTT DoCoMo in September.

Also strong growth in China, Latin America, the Middle East and Russia.

New agreement with China Mobile is a multi-year deal. Oppenheimer said that "China is an incredibly important market to Apple."

iPhone has highest loyalty rates in the industry. ChangeWave has a 96% satisfaction rate, while Kantar says iPhone has a 90% loyalty rate.
post #2 of 112

Listening now...

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post #3 of 112
Love to see how the pundits are going to spin this one.
post #4 of 112
Big sell aftermarket
post #5 of 112
The biggest note of interest to me is Apple is trading $43 down in after hours trades at around $506 a share.

 

Never argue with an idiot. They will only bring you down to their level and beat you with experience. 

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Never argue with an idiot. They will only bring you down to their level and beat you with experience. 

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post #6 of 112
I bought 10 more shared at 506
post #7 of 112

Every time Tim Cook uses the word ‘incredible’, the stock seems to drop 10 points.

 

Can someone please get him a speech coach?

post #8 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by BeltsBear View Post

I bought 10 more shared at 506

 

Smart move. If I had the cash on hand, I'd put in a large buy at $500.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

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post #9 of 112

EPS is only up because they retired shares, net revenue didn't change at all year over year.  Apple stock is now virtually the same as IBM and MSFT.  EPS growth will be manufactured by buying back shares, increase the dividend, and slowly move the stock price up.

 

Certainly not the worst scenario, but should be enough to get Cook fired unless Apple is happy treading water.

 

But my guess is we'll be treated to another year of Cook talking about all the great things in the pipeline which never seem to materialize.

post #10 of 112
The Apple team (last time I check Apple is not running from a wood box in the backyard anymore) just report the fourth largest corporate earning in any industry in any country in the world. That could get someone fired? Or some arm/chairman need to get their head examine?
post #11 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post
 

 

Smart move. If I had the cash on hand, I'd put in a large buy at $500.

Smart move? Only if you believe AAPL is the only stock around. If you have cash to make a large AAPL buy, there are far better choices.

post #12 of 112

Can anyone explain to me why AAPL is down 8% aftermarket? Seriously now. 

post #13 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by tkell31 View Post

EPS is only up because they retired shares, net revenue didn't change at all year over year.  Apple stock is now virtually the same as IBM and MSFT.  EPS growth will be manufactured by buying back shares, increase the dividend, and slowly move the stock price up.

Certainly not the worst scenario, but should be enough to get Cook fired unless Apple is happy treading water.

But my guess is we'll be treated to another year of Cook talking about all the great things in the pipeline which never seem to materialize.

The Apple team (last time I check, apple is not running from a garage in the backyard anymore) just report the fourth largest corporate earning in the history of any company in any country in the world. That could get someone fired? Or some arm-chairman need to get their head examine. I have to thank the Wall Street mr idiots pushing it down. Otherwise I won't able to buy more sharers before the end of the tax year 1smile.gif
post #14 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by Joelchu View Post


The Apple team (last time I check, apple is not running from a garage in the backyard anymore) just report the fourth largest corporate earning in the history of any company in any country in the world. That could get someone fired? Or some arm-chairman need to get their head examine. I have to thank the Wall Street mr idiots pushing it down. Otherwise I won't able to buy more sharers before the end of the tax year 1smile.gif

A well trained monkey could have taken over Apple and produced better results.

post #15 of 112

Looks like the iPhone 5C was weak (to Apple Standards). Just goes to show that the analysts demanding a cheap iPhone are like Jon Snow, they know nothing. One small blip on a powerhouse quarter!! Great job Apple and Tim Cook!!

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post #16 of 112
Originally Posted by tkell31 View Post
A well trained monkey could have taken over Apple and produced better results.

 

You got your $0.10 for today. Now shove off.

Originally posted by Relic

...those little naked weirdos are going to get me investigated.
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Originally posted by Relic

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post #17 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by tkell31 View Post
 

A well trained monkey could have taken over Apple and produced better results.

For who? you? I think Apple would rather keep putting billions into the bank than listen to idiots like yourself.

Help! I'm trapped in a white dungeon of amazing precision and impeccable tolerances!

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post #18 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by tkell31 View Post
 

Apple stock is now virtually the same as IBM and MSFT. 

 

Where the hell does this come from?  Apple had more than twice the revenue for the same period as MSFT and about twice the profit.  It's got a $200 Billion higher market cap valuation than MSFT.  Apple has more than twice as much cash as MSFT. In what world do you have a perspective that APPL is "now virtually the same as MSFT"?

 

Apple has over twice the market cap as IBM.  Apple reported more than twice the revenue and more than twice the profits as IBM during the same time period.  Apple finished with over $150 Billion in cash, while IBM has about 28 Billion of net debt. In what world do you have a perspective that APPL is "now virtually the same as IBM"?

 

Oh wait, did you mean "virtually the same as IBM and Microsoft COMBINED"?

 

Ok, I could maybe see that.

post #19 of 112
It was interesting hearing Cook bulls**t his way through the answer regarding why iPhone sales are down in North America. Two words: small screen. Hat's what he would say if he could. If the iPhone 5s would have been 4.5", they would have sold 75 million. I think it's an Apple conspiracy to get the stock down to the $300's so they can buy back $150 billion in shares, and watch it soar to $800 when they release a broader range of iPhones and their new product lines. I think it's brilliant. Milking the small iPhone for all it's worth until growth stalls, and then bam, growth will return literally overnight. Just remember, these guys at Apple are a lot smarter than the folks who will bash Apple because they failed to keep growing at 50% when they're a half-trillion $ company.
post #20 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by tkell31 View Post
 

A well trained monkey could have taken over Apple and produced better results.

 

You could?

post #21 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by StruckPaper View Post
 

Smart move? Only if you believe AAPL is the only stock around. If you have cash to make a large AAPL buy, there are far better choices.

 

If one wants to own AAPL, it's a smart move to buy it when it's being pummeled by Wall Street twerps.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #22 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eric38 View Post

It was interesting hearing Cook bulls**t his way through the answer regarding why iPhone sales are down in North America. Two words: small screen. 

 

Baloney. There is no proof that monkey paw sized phones are in high demand.

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post #23 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eric38 View Post

It was interesting hearing Cook bulls**t his way through the answer regarding why iPhone sales are down in North America. Two words: small screen. Hat's what he would say if he could. If the iPhone 5s would have been 4.5", they would have sold 75 million. I think it's an Apple conspiracy to get the stock down to the $300's so they can buy back $150 billion in shares, and watch it soar to $800 when they release a broader range of iPhones and their new product lines. I think it's brilliant. Milking the small iPhone for all it's worth until growth stalls, and then bam, growth will return literally overnight. Just remember, these guys at Apple are a lot smarter than the folks who will bash Apple because they failed to keep growing at 50% when they're a half-trillion $ company.

The iPhone 6 should sooth the burr under your saddle. You better put your money where your mouth is and buy APPL stock now while it's cheap if you believe a 4.5" iPhone 6 will sell that much. Which it likely will.

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post #24 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post
 

 

If one wants to own AAPL, it's a smart move to buy it when it's being pummeled by Wall Street twerps.

 

Considering it hit $502 and is now trading back up passed $508+ it's rather obvious this artificial saddle point is now on its way up.

 

It's a miracle that Russia just announced reselling of the iPhone after a 4 year hault.

post #25 of 112
Originally Posted by Eric38 View Post
Two words: small screen.

 

Psychosis is two words? :no: 

 
That’s what he would say if he could. If the iPhone 5s would have been 4.5", they would have sold 75 million.

 

Prove it or shut up.

 

Why have iPhone sales ONLY been growing, always, since the release of 4”+ Android phones if you are anywhere near correct? Know what, you can’t prove it, you’re just wrong. Shut up.

 
Just remember, these guys at Apple are a lot smarter than the folks who will bash Apple because they failed to keep growing at 50% when they're a half-trillion $ company. 

 

We remember. You haven’t.

Originally posted by Relic

...those little naked weirdos are going to get me investigated.
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Originally posted by Relic

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post #26 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by jakeb View Post

Can anyone explain to me why AAPL is down 8% aftermarket? Seriously now. 
Sure. The "Market" believes that this is proof that the Steve Jobs Apple is dead. They don't see any growth in Apple's profits, which is fundamentally what a stock is valued at. Effectively every stock is valued based on the prospect for future profits. Past profits only provide an indication on track record, and cash and capital assets on-hand.

An investor wants a positive return relative to a "risk-free" investment for holding a stock. That can be in the form of dividends or the hope of appreciation in the asset value. A 30-year Treasury note has a yield of 3.67% today, and that is generally considered the risk-free rate. So, Apple has a dividend of 2.4% at current after-hours price. The prospects of improving that dividend appear to be limited, so the value of the stock needs to drop dramatically.

...So, what does it take for a company the size of Apple to improve cash flow to the point that it can double its dividend? Either they need to dramatically increase sales, or they need to dramatically reduce costs, or some permutation thereof.

Unfortunately, a whole lot of long-time Apple investors (like myself) are no longer confident in Apple's ability to make the kind of changes that would improve the picture. A lot bailed over the last 18 months, and this will cause even more to do so.

Companies like Google are looked at differently because they are "game changers;" Wall Street doesn't see Apple in that category anymore.
post #27 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by StruckPaper View Post

 
Smart move? Only if you believe AAPL is the only stock around. If you have cash to make a large AAPL buy, there are far better choices.

If one wants to own AAPL, it's a smart move to buy it when it's being pummeled by Wall Street twerps.
Is that blind faith talking, or do you have a specific (financial) reason to believe that either Earnings will improve or investors will be willing to value it higher on a P/E basis? Me, I'm losing faith.
post #28 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by macslut View Post
 

 

Where the hell does this come from?  Apple had more than twice the revenue for the same period as MSFT and about twice the profit.  It's got a $200 Billion higher market cap valuation than MSFT.  Apple has more than twice as much cash as MSFT. In what world do you have a perspective that APPL is "now virtually the same as MSFT"?

 

Apple has over twice the market cap as IBM.  Apple reported more than twice the revenue and more than twice the profits as IBM during the same time period.  Apple finished with over $150 Billion in cash, while IBM has about 28 Billion of net debt. In what world do you have a perspective that APPL is "now virtually the same as IBM"?

 

Oh wait, did you mean "virtually the same as IBM and Microsoft COMBINED"?

 

Ok, I could maybe see that.

I know reading comprehension is hard, but I thought the context was pretty clear.  Apple is like IBM and MSFT because the growth has stopped and future value will come from increased dividends and share buybacks.  Is that too hard to grasp?  Just because Apple is larger doesn't mean it can't be similar.  Good God I feel like I explaining something to a stupid child.

post #29 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post


Sure. The "Market" believes that this is proof that the Steve Jobs Apple is dead. They don't see any growth in Apple's profits, which is fundamentally what a stock is valued at. Effectively every stock is valued based on the prospect for future profits. Past profits only provide an indication on track record, and cash and capital assets on-hand.

An investor wants a positive return relative to a "risk-free" investment for holding a stock. That can be in the form of dividends or the hope of appreciation in the asset value. A 30-year Treasury note has a yield of 3.67% today, and that is generally considered the risk-free rate. So, Apple has a dividend of 2.4% at current after-hours price. The prospects of improving that dividend appear to be limited, so the value of the stock needs to drop dramatically.

...So, what does it take for a company the size of Apple to improve cash flow to the point that it can double its dividend? Either they need to dramatically increase sales, or they need to dramatically reduce costs, or some permutation thereof.

Unfortunately, a whole lot of long-time Apple investors (like myself) are no longer confident in Apple's ability to make the kind of changes that would improve the picture. A lot bailed over the last 18 months, and this will cause even more to do so.

Companies like Google are looked at differently because they are "game changers;" Wall Street doesn't see Apple in that category anymore.

Decent summary so I'm sure it will immediately be unpopular.  I do disagree that they can't increase the dividend much.  As shares outstanding continue to decrease it takes less money to pay the current dividend which frees up money, plus they are only paying out about 30% of net revenue in dividends.  That could easily reach 50%, and my guess would be another increase this March/April to $3.50-3.60 a quarter.  Sure that is still less than 3% a year, but I would much rather invest in Apple stock at 2.8% and growing then a T-BIll locked in at 3.67 for 10 years.  That isn't to say either is an exciting investment, but Apple is certainly the better of the two.

post #30 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post


Is that blind faith talking, or do you have a specific (financial) reason to believe that either Earnings will improve or investors will be willing to value it higher on a P/E basis? Me, I'm losing faith.

 

Riiiiiiiight. Then sell your stock and put your money where your mouth is.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #31 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post
 

 

You got your $0.10 for today. Now shove off.

 

Cook has done as little as he possibly could with the company he took over.

post #32 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by tkell31 View Post
 

 

Are you a twit in real life or just on the internet?  Cook has done as little as he possibly could with the company he took over.

That's just absurd. What have you accomplished in life that compares to 1% of Cook's achievements?

post #33 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post
 

 

If one wants to own AAPL, it's a smart move to buy it when it's being pummeled by Wall Street twerps.

But why do you *want* to own AAPL? Own a Mac, an iPhone or whatever. But when you invest with hard earned money, it's about making a profit. Even if you hate Google, buy GOOG when there's an opportunity to make a killing. Once the profit is made, no one cares if it is on the back of your most or least favourite company.

post #34 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post


Sure. The "Market" believes that this is proof that the Steve Jobs Apple is dead. They don't see any growth in Apple's profits, which is fundamentally what a stock is valued at. Effectively every stock is valued based on the prospect for future profits. Past profits only provide an indication on track record, and cash and capital assets on-hand.

An investor wants a positive return relative to a "risk-free" investment for holding a stock. That can be in the form of dividends or the hope of appreciation in the asset value. A 30-year Treasury note has a yield of 3.67% today, and that is generally considered the risk-free rate. So, Apple has a dividend of 2.4% at current after-hours price. The prospects of improving that dividend appear to be limited, so the value of the stock needs to drop dramatically.

...So, what does it take for a company the size of Apple to improve cash flow to the point that it can double its dividend? Either they need to dramatically increase sales, or they need to dramatically reduce costs, or some permutation thereof.

Unfortunately, a whole lot of long-time Apple investors (like myself) are no longer confident in Apple's ability to make the kind of changes that would improve the picture. A lot bailed over the last 18 months, and this will cause even more to do so.

Companies like Google are looked at differently because they are "game changers;" Wall Street doesn't see Apple in that category anymore.

 

you and they are not "investors" if you buy based on expectations of future growth beyond overall economic growth - you're all "speculators." "investors" buy instead based on reasonable expectations of rates of return on their equity. in the case of stocks, the P/E ratio that once upon a time was the main criteria but that now has been supplanted by, essentially, hype.

 

all the Wall St. people looking for a quick buck like to fancy themselves as "investors" to the unknowing public, but that's BS. it's a game, and the "analysts" are their enablers.

 

being a speculator is fine, just don't glorify it. go buy some more Amazon, a stock that is totally priced based on its "future" by speculators (and suckers) because today it's just a low-margain internet supermarket business - and always will be.

post #35 of 112
Originally Posted by tkell31 View Post

Are you a twit in real life or just on the internet?  Cook has done as little as he possibly could with the company he took over.

 

$0.15 now.

Originally posted by Relic

...those little naked weirdos are going to get me investigated.
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Originally posted by Relic

...those little naked weirdos are going to get me investigated.
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post #36 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by StruckPaper View Post

That's just absurd. What have you accomplished in life that compares to 1% of Cook's achievements?

He isn't running Apple so that's not an argument.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alfiejr View Post

you and they are not "investors" if you buy based on expectations of future growth beyond overall economic growth - you're all "speculators." "investors" buy instead based on reasonable expectations of rates of return on their equity. in the case of stocks, the P/E ratio that once upon a time was the main criteria but that now has been supplanted by, essentially, hype.

all the Wall St. people looking for a quick buck like to fancy themselves as "investors" to the unknowing public, but that's BS. it's a game, and the "analysts" are their enablers.

being a speculator is fine, just don't glorify it. go buy some more Amazon, a stock that is totally priced based on its "future" by speculators (and suckers) because today it's just a low-margain internet supermarket business - and always will be.

Are venture capitalists speculators or investors?
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post #37 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by StruckPaper View Post
 

That's just absurd. What have you accomplished in life that compares to 1% of Cook's achievements?

What does one have to do with the other? 

 

Cook sucks as a CEO which is the pertinent point.  He didn't even have the vision to make a bigger phone and offer color options until it was all but forced on him.   And where are the new products he's alluded to for the last two years?  Hey, good for him, he's financially successful, but as a CEO he stinks.

post #38 of 112
Originally Posted by tkell31
Boring, but I see I'm dealing with someone going on 31K posts here and averaging about 25 a day so I think I know the answer to my question.

 

No information to back up your arguments, no proof, no sources, nothing.

 

Just personal attacks.

 

Great going, boyo; I’m sure we’ll listen to you in the future. We love people who can’t actually converse with others.

Originally posted by Relic

...those little naked weirdos are going to get me investigated.
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Originally posted by Relic

...those little naked weirdos are going to get me investigated.
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post #39 of 112
Q2 guidance is just horrendous. Tomorrow the stock would be down %15.
post #40 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by tkell31 View Post

EPS is only up because they retired shares, net revenue didn't change at all year over year.  Apple stock is now virtually the same as IBM and MSFT.  EPS growth will be manufactured by buying back shares, increase the dividend, and slowly move the stock price up.
And you know this is a certainty how?
Quote:

Certainly not the worst scenario, but should be enough to get Cook fired unless Apple is happy treading water.
It isn't treading water if you effectively did better than the entire rest of the industry. If anything Cook and the executive team should get a bonus for actually increasing Mac sales in a very down market even if those sales are just iMacs and AIRs. The only rational way to look at these results is that the team is doing an incredible job of staying ahead of the gloom in the rest of the industry.
Quote:
But my guess is we'll be treated to another year of Cook talking about all the great things in the pipeline which never seem to materialize.

And just what would that be? The Mac Pro finally came and frankly there wasn't much more suggested for last year. I think you really need to screw your head on straight and look at Apples results compared to the rest of the industry.
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