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Notes of interest from Apple's Q1 2014 conference call - Page 2

post #41 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by asdasd View Post

Are venture capitalists speculators or investors?

good question. high-risk investors - they are in for several years, not a quick turnaround. speculators are looking for quick profits.

post #42 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eric38 View Post

It was interesting hearing Cook bulls**t his way through the answer regarding why iPhone sales are down in North America. Two words: small screen. Hat's what he would say if he could. If the iPhone 5s would have been 4.5", they would have sold 75 million. I think it's an Apple conspiracy to get the stock down to the $300's so they can buy back $150 billion in shares, and watch it soar to $800 when they release a broader range of iPhones and their new product lines. I think it's brilliant. Milking the small iPhone for all it's worth until growth stalls, and then bam, growth will return literally overnight. Just remember, these guys at Apple are a lot smarter than the folks who will bash Apple because they failed to keep growing at 50% when they're a half-trillion $ company.

You do realize that very few people want a larger iPhone. Globally the response to the large Androids has been very cool to say the least.
post #43 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post


And you know this is a certainty how?
It isn't treading water if you effectively did better than the entire rest of the industry. If anything Cook and the executive team should get a bonus for actually increasing Mac sales in a very down market even if those sales are just iMacs and AIRs. The only rational way to look at these results is that the team is doing an incredible job of staying ahead of the gloom in the rest of the industry.
And just what would that be? The Mac Pro finally came and frankly there wasn't much more suggested for last year. I think you really need to screw your head on straight and look at Apples results compared to the rest of the industry.

ROFL, oh brother, just read the transcript.  Net revenue was this same this quarter as the same quarter last year.

 

It's effectively treading water when EPS is flat and revenue is growing at snail's pace.

 

Do you even know how to read a financial report?  I suggest you look up the numbers since Cook took over.  It's not a pretty picture for a "growth" company.

 

That isn't to say Apple is a bad investment.  It's not.  It's just not going to grow much unless they come up with a new product line so sell some covered calls and collect the dividend.

post #44 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by tkell31 View Post

I know reading comprehension is hard, but I thought the context was pretty clear.  Apple is like IBM and MSFT because the growth has stopped and future value will come from increased dividends and share buybacks.  Is that too hard to grasp?  Just because Apple is larger doesn't mean it can't be similar.  Good God I feel like I explaining something to a stupid child.
There is no evidence that the end of growth is near.
post #45 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post
 

 

No information to back up your arguments, no proof, no sources, nothing.

 

Just personal attacks.

 

Great going, boyo; I’m sure we’ll listen to you in the future. We love people who can’t actually converse with others.

Ironic, you attack someone then claim all they do is attack people.  Last time I checked you attacked me to start this back and forth.

 

Net revenue is no longer increasing and hasn't for 15-18 months (year over year), gross revenue is down to single digits when it grows.  There hasn't been a new product released in over 3 years, 27 months of which was under Cook.  He, incorrectly, defended their decision to have one color and one size screen.  He word smithed his announcements to imply new products were coming.

 

Honestly, how can you defend his job as CEO?  I will stand by my statement a well trained monkey could have done better…certainly couldn't have done worse.

 

.25c now right?

post #46 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post


There is no evidence that the end of growth is near.

No evidence other than the net revenue for the last 15-18 months and gross revenue that down to single digit growth.  So yeah, other than revenue not growing there is no proof revenue growth is over.

post #47 of 112
Tim made it very clear on the call that iPhone sales were up overseas and it was basically North America that was a drag. So perhaps we are seeing saturation in NA. Or Apple underestimated the demand for the 5S.
post #48 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by tkell31 View Post

ROFL, oh brother, just read the transcript.  Net revenue was this same this quarter as the same quarter last year.

It's effectively treading water when EPS is flat and revenue is growing at snail's pace.
Considering what the rest if the industry is doing that should be looked at as an accomplishment.
Quote:
Do you even know how to read a financial report?  I suggest you look up the numbers since Cook took over.  It's not a pretty picture for a "growth" company.
Really all your garbage and hate towards Cook means absolutely nothing. Cook was running Apple for years before Jobs left us. You simply have no basis for your anger and nonsense!
Quote:
That isn't to say Apple is a bad investment.  It's not.  It's just not going to grow much unless they come up with a new product line so sell some covered calls and collect the dividend.

Apple has been coming out with new products I'm not sure how it is that you mis them. There ability to deliver one of the best UltraBooks out there has resulted in them beating the industry hands down. Apple is seeing real Mac growth when the rest of the industry has taken a nose dive. Maybe the numbers don't mean much to you but in context of the rest of the industry they are still hitting home runs.

I'd be the first to say that Apple needs to work harder when it comes to revising old products and morphing them into more desirable products. However that might work against Apple as many like the relative stability of the platform. When it comes to new products Apple is pretty much instep with previous behavior. I just isn't possible to come out with truly new products every year, you can demand it all you want but it won't happen.
post #49 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by tkell31 View Post

No evidence other than the net revenue for the last 15-18 months and gross revenue that down to single digit growth.  So yeah, other than revenue not growing there is no proof revenue growth is over.
You can't look to the past to project future revenue, especially if that revenue will come from unknown products. As long as Apple continues to develop new products and services it has potential for significant revenue increases.
post #50 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post


You can't look to the past to project future revenue, especially if that revenue will come from unknown products. As long as Apple continues to develop new products and services it has potential for significant revenue increases.

Next quarter revenue is projected to be flat to a slight decline, but I guess that is good news too?  So no growth is okay so long as it beats the industry.  Got it.

 

How did you like the Emperor's new clothes?

 

It's been over 3 years since the iPad, but feel free to pretend I'm claiming they need a new product every year.

post #51 of 112
Originally Posted by tkell31 View Post

Net revenue is no longer increasing and hasn't for 15-18 months (year over year), gross revenue is down to single digits when it grows.

 

Oh no. Growth. How fireable.

 

There hasn't been a new product released in over 3 years, 27 months of which was under Cook.

 

Thanks for the lies. Do you think the Apple fans won’t know what Apple has created?

 

He, incorrectly, defended their decision to have one color and one size screen.

 

The hubris, thinking you know better than Apple itself on what they should and should not defend.

 
He word smithed his announcements to imply new products were coming.

 

WOW. IT’S ALMOST AS THOUGH NEW PRODUCTS ARE COMING OR SOMETHING.

 
Honestly, how can you defend his job as CEO?

 

Oh no. Profits through the roof. The fourth highest quarterly earnings of any company since the dawn of human civilization. HOW FIREABLE!

 
.25c now right?  

 

You stop getting paid after you’re found out. Read your contract.

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply
post #52 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by tkell31 View Post
 

I know reading comprehension is hard, but I thought the context was pretty clear.  Apple is like IBM and MSFT because the growth has stopped and future value will come from increased dividends and share buybacks.  Is that too hard to grasp?  Just because Apple is larger doesn't mean it can't be similar.  Good God I feel like I explaining something to a stupid child.

 

I know writing is hard, but maybe next time you'll try writing in a coherent manner?  Insults and back-peddling aside, I still disagree.  Apple is a company that develops disruptive products in new categories that live through various growth cycles.  While we're seeing a decay in the iPod, a maturing in the iPhone, and continued growth of the iPad, Apple is well poised to introduce additional disruptive products while Microsoft has had significant difficulty getting traction with current industry trending consumer products and IBM isn't in the consumer market anymore at all.

post #53 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by tkell31 View Post

Ironic, you attack someone then claim all they do is attack people.  Last time I checked you attacked me to start this back and forth.  Or, I'm sorry, are you Tim Cook? But I get it,…good luck on 31K.  Should hit it this week at this rate.
You come on this forum spewing hate towards Mr Cook with no justification what so ever.
Quote:
Net revenue is no longer increasing and hasn't for 15-18 months (year over year), gross revenue is down to single digits when it grows.  There hasn't been a new product released in over 3 years,
The Mac Pro isn't new and innovative? All that networking hardware they released isn't new either I suppose. IPad Mini isn't a new product either using your logic.
Quote:
27 months of which was under Cook.  He, incorrectly, defended their decision to have one color and one size screen.  He word smithed his announcements to imply new products were coming.
Which has actually worked out well for them. This especially the case if you look at sales figures and trends for large screen devices in the Android world. The reality is that so called hot market flamed out pretty damn fast.
Quote:
Honestly, how can you defend his job as CEO?  
Because he is doing exactly what I expect of a CEO and deflecting the demands of the sluts on Wall Street. I've seen many a company harmed by irrational demands from the Wall Street crowd and frankly you appear to be one of those idiots that want to screw up a good thing. So realize you are just making yourself look foolish in the eyes of more reasonable people.
Quote:
I will stand by my statement a well trained monkey could have done better…certainly couldn't have done worse.

.25c now right?

Go ahead and stand by the ridiculous but don't expect a great deal of tolerance on this forum.

If you had a reasonable argument you would be able to go out and find a PC manufacture that is actually doing significantly better than Apple sales wise.
post #54 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by tkell31 View Post

A well trained monkey could have taken over Apple and produced better results.

You applied? Oh you said "well trained monkey".
Quote:
Originally Posted by tkell31 View Post

What does one have to do with the other? 

Cook sucks as a CEO which is the pertinent point.  He didn't even have the vision to make a bigger phone and offer color options until it was all but forced on him.   And where are the new products he's alluded to for the last two years?  Hey, good for him, he's financially successful, but as a CEO he stinks.

Mac Pro.
post #55 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by tkell31 View Post

Next quarter revenue is projected to be flat to a slight decline, but I guess that is good news too?  
At least Apple is honest about their projections. By the way yes flat is good if the rest of the industry is in a rapid decline.
Quote:
So no growth is okay so long as it beats the industry.  Got it.
It most certainly is, your inability to grasp this is startling. If Apple followed industry trends Mac sales would have been down 8% or more. In the cell phone market the only manufacture doing well is Samsung and even Samsung is suffering from many of the low cost Android devices hitting the market.
Quote:
How did you like the Emperor's new clothes?
I like that Apple doesn't shovel a lot of bullshit our way when it comes to these quarterly reports. If your game is to buy into the crap that other CEOs put forward then go buy their stock. I fact do that because the likes of Acer, HP, Dell and others need something to shore up their stock.
Quote:
It's been over 3 years since the iPad, but feel free to pretend I'm claiming they need a new product every year.
What is garbage is you claim of no new products this year. A year that delivered the Mac Pro. Not to mention everything that has been happening on the software front. Obviously you have the ability to selectively dismiss the obvious.
post #56 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post


And you know this is a certainty how?
It isn't treading water if you effectively did better than the entire rest of the industry. If anything Cook and the executive team should get a bonus for actually increasing Mac sales in a very down market even if those sales are just iMacs and AIRs. The only rational way to look at these results is that the team is doing an incredible job of staying ahead of the gloom in the rest of the industry.
And just what would that be? The Mac Pro finally came and frankly there wasn't much more suggested for last year. I think you really need to screw your head on straight and look at Apples results compared to the rest of the industry.

 

What a world we've seen develop, eh? The world where Jamie Diamond is the head of a corrupt/criminal Banking Cartel whose corporation negotiates a cheap settlement of $20 Billion in fines to the US DoJ/SEC, and he gets a $20 million bonus, but don't see any asshats in Wall Street calling for his resignation.

 

It might have to do with the fact JP Morgan hired world class Geologists to survey Afghanistan and Iraq to discover Afghanistan is sitting on untapped mineral rights of > $2 Trillion that he plans on getting JP Morgan to control.

post #57 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post


At least Apple is honest about their projections. By the way yes flat is good if the rest of the industry is in a rapid decline.
It most certainly is, your inability to grasp this is startling. If Apple followed industry trends Mac sales would have been down 8% or more. In the cell phone market the only manufacture doing well is Samsung and even Samsung is suffering from many of the low cost Android devices hitting the market.
I like that Apple doesn't shovel a lot of bullshit our way when it comes to these quarterly reports. If your game is to buy into the crap that other CEOs put forward then go buy their stock. I fact do that because the likes of Acer, HP, Dell and others need something to shore up their stock.
What is garbage is you claim of no new products this year. A year that delivered the Mac Pro. Not to mention everything that has been happening on the software front. Obviously you have the ability to selectively dismiss the obvious.

 

The detractors will call the future iPad platform hardware no innovation, nor the future dominance in markets Apple will control as also not being innovative, while ignoring the entire Tech Industry busting their nut to mimic Apple.

post #58 of 112
I wish people would quit saying that Apple lowballs their guidance. They don't do that anymore. Their guidance is much more realistic than it was under Jobs. The stock shouldn't be punished for meeting or exceeding that guidance.
post #59 of 112
People are caterwauling on both sides of the fence, and not looking at the real picture here.

I am not responding to any specific comment, but I believe that Cook and Oppenheimer have failed terribly.

Not because they haven't grown the business. Not because they don't have serious innovations in the pipeline. Not because they're not passionate about the company or its products or its customers. Not because they aren't anything but superb managers of many aspects of the business. Not because they're disengaged from value creation. None of these.

I've said this many times before and will say it again. They're incredibly poor in conveying their sense of the future of the business, and more importantly, managing market expectations.

Let me explain. If I am a working-my-butt-off manager at Apple that delivered the incredible feat of selling 51M in iPhone sales last quarter, I am probably pretty pissed off and dejected tonight. My stock lost $45 per share in value. Why? The market expected me to deliver 55M. Just casually, as though 51M involved no blood, sweat, tears. And nobody out there, least of all Apple's senior leaders such as Cook and Oppenheimer, bothered to stick their necks out to try and manage or talk down such ridiculous expectations.

If you've spent half a day working for a real business, you'll know that there's nothing that can be more demoralizing.

That, in my book, is a major leadership failure on their part. Inexcusable.
post #60 of 112
I'm looking forward to when all that deferred revenue is realized.
post #61 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by quinney View Post

I'm looking forward to when all that deferred revenue is realized.

Meh. Already factored in.
post #62 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

I've said this many times before and will say it again. They're incredibly poor in conveying their sense of the future of the business, and more importantly, managing market expectations.

Let me explain. If I am a working-my-butt-off manager at Apple that delivered the incredible feat of selling 51M in iPhone sales last quarter, I am probably pretty pissed off and dejected tonight. My stock lost $45 per share in value. Why? The market expected me to deliver 55M. Just casually, as though 51M involved no blood, sweat, tears. And nobody out there, least of all Apple's senior leaders such as Cook and Oppenheimer, bothered to stick their necks out to try and manage or talk down such ridiculous expectations.

If you've spent half a day working for a real business, you'll know that there's nothing that can be more demoralizing.

That, in my book, is a major leadership failure on their part. Inexcusable.

Unrealized losses.

They did have a range of expectations. They can't help it if WS ignores that range.
post #63 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post


Unrealized losses.

They did have a range of expectations. They can't help it if WS ignores that range.

Sigh. Typical of the vapid response I expected from guys like you.

You're welcome to live in your own planet.
post #64 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by jakeb View Post
 

Can anyone explain to me why AAPL is down 8% aftermarket? Seriously now. 

Aftermarket moves don't mean that much, but their forward guidance is underwhelming.

post #65 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by macslut View Post
 

 

Where the hell does this come from?  Apple had more than twice the revenue for the same period as MSFT and about twice the profit.  It's got a $200 Billion higher market cap valuation than MSFT.  Apple has more than twice as much cash as MSFT. In what world do you have a perspective that APPL is "now virtually the same as MSFT"?

 

Apple has over twice the market cap as IBM.  Apple reported more than twice the revenue and more than twice the profits as IBM during the same time period.  Apple finished with over $150 Billion in cash, while IBM has about 28 Billion of net debt. In what world do you have a perspective that APPL is "now virtually the same as IBM"?

 

Oh wait, did you mean "virtually the same as IBM and Microsoft COMBINED"?

 

Ok, I could maybe see that.

 

He obviously meant that AAPL is not a growth stock anymore. You can agree or disagree, but don't change the subject.

post #66 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by tkell31 View Post
 

I know reading comprehension is hard, but I thought the context was pretty clear.  Apple is like IBM and MSFT because the growth has stopped and future value will come from increased dividends and share buybacks.  Is that too hard to grasp?  Just because Apple is larger doesn't mean it can't be similar.  Good God I feel like I explaining something to a stupid child.

 

That's because you are. I feel your pain :(

post #67 of 112
Originally Posted by marubeni View Post

He obviously meant that AAPL is not a growth stock anymore.

 

A company that continues to grow isn’t a grower?

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply
post #68 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alfiejr View Post
 

 

you and they are not "investors" if you buy based on expectations of future growth beyond overall economic growth - you're all "speculators." "investors" buy instead based on reasonable expectations of rates of return on their equity. in the case of stocks, the P/E ratio that once upon a time was the main criteria but that now has been supplanted by, essentially, hype.

 

all the Wall St. people looking for a quick buck like to fancy themselves as "investors" to the unknowing public, but that's BS. it's a game, and the "analysts" are their enablers.

 

being a speculator is fine, just don't glorify it. go buy some more Amazon, a stock that is totally priced based on its "future" by speculators (and suckers) because today it's just a low-margain internet supermarket business - and always will be.

 

You have NO idea what you are talking about.

post #69 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post


You do realize that very few people want a larger iPhone. Globally the response to the large Androids has been very cool to say the least.

 

You are just wrong. It used to be that if one would look around at a good restaurant at lunch time, all one would see was iPhones. Now, a lot of much bigger android devices (never saw a windows phone yet...)

post #70 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post


There is no evidence that the end of growth is near.

 

Flat profits Y/Y is not evidence? It is not PROOF, but it is evidence.

post #71 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Sigh. Typical of the vapid response I expected from guys like you.

You're welcome to live in your own planet.

Oh do tell. Please tell us how Cook and company could have managed expectations, oh wise man. Other that giving a range of their expectations.
post #72 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post

Oh do tell. Please tell us how Cook and company could have managed expectations, oh wise man. Other that giving a range of their expectations.

Pay me $400M and I'll tell you how.

post #73 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post


Oh do tell. Please tell us how Cook and company could have managed expectations, oh wise man. Other that giving a range of their expectations.

 

He doesn't have to tell you. He is not being paid the big bucks to do their jobs, they are.

post #74 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by marubeni View Post

Flat profits Y/Y is not evidence? It is not PROOF, but it is evidence.
if flat profits is evidence than Amazon it's not growing and their stock is WAY overvalued.
post #75 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by marubeni View Post

Aftermarket moves don't mean that much, but their forward guidance is underwhelming.
Underwhelming compared to what?
post #76 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post


if flat profits is evidence than Amazon it's not growing and their stock is WAY overvalued.

 

Firstly, what does that have to do with Apple? Secondly, Amazon is very good about telling people what they are doing with the money they spend, so they have a credible growth story (warehouses, now that they are losing the sales tax exemption, better kindles, drones dropping your coconut water order on the lawn, instant video, etc, etc). As has been pointed out by some here, Cook and Co might HAVE a growth story, but they seem not to able to tell it, and what we have seen product-wise over the last couple of years has been slow incremental improvement. Not at all a bad thing, but not likely to inspire amazonian valuations.

post #77 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

People are caterwauling on both sides of the fence, and not looking at the real picture here.

I am not responding to any specific comment, but I believe that Cook and Oppenheimer have failed terribly.

Not because they haven't grown the business. Not because they don't have serious innovations in the pipeline. Not because they're not passionate about the company or its products or its customers. Not because they aren't anything but superb managers of many aspects of the business. Not because they're disengaged from value creation. None of these.

I've said this many times before and will say it again. They're incredibly poor in conveying their sense of the future of the business, and more importantly, managing market expectations.

Let me explain. If I am a working-my-butt-off manager at Apple that delivered the incredible feat of selling 51M in iPhone sales last quarter, I am probably pretty pissed off and dejected tonight. My stock lost $45 per share in value. Why? The market expected me to deliver 55M. Just casually, as though 51M involved no blood, sweat, tears. And nobody out there, least of all Apple's senior leaders such as Cook and Oppenheimer, bothered to stick their necks out to try and manage or talk down such ridiculous expectations.

If you've spent half a day working for a real business, you'll know that there's nothing that can be more demoralizing.

That, in my book, is a major leadership failure on their part. Inexcusable.
What is Cook supposed to do? Come out and say that Wall Street's estimates are wildly inaccurate? How exactly could/should Cook have managed expectations? And what exactly should Cook be saying about the future? Apple is never going spill details on future products. People need to stop expecting that.
post #78 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post


Underwhelming compared to what?

 

Are you completely dense? Their revenue is DECLINING, and their guidance is 10% below estimates. Are you whelmed yet?

post #79 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by marubeni View Post

Firstly, what does that have to do with Apple? Secondly, Amazon is very good about telling people what they are doing with the money they spend, so they have a credible growth story (warehouses, now that they are losing the sales tax exemption, better kindles, drones dropping your coconut water order on the lawn, instant video, etc, etc). As has been pointed out by some here, Cook and Co might HAVE a growth story, but they seem not to able to tell it, and what we have seen product-wise over the last couple of years has been slow incremental improvement. Not at all a bad thing, but not likely to inspire amazonian valuations.
If the argument is that flat profits = no growth then how does one explain Amazon which basically has been running profitless for 17 years?
post #80 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by marubeni View Post

Are you completely dense? Their revenue is DECLINING, and their guidance is 10% below estimates. Are you whelmed yet?
Revenue didn't decline this quarter. And it should be no surprise at all that it will decline in the quarter after the holiday quarter. Guidance is 10% below who's estimates? The Wall Street consensus that was way off in their iPhone numbers?
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