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Wall Street concerned by lower-than-expected iPhone sales in Apple's holiday quarter - Page 4

post #121 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post

Or it could be a ruse.

 

You're joking, right.

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post #122 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post

Or it could be a ruse.

They call it guidance because they are guiding shareholders. If it was found to be an intentional "ruse" as you suggest I'm sure they could be sued by their shareholder.
post #123 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by GregInPrague View Post


They call it guidance because they are guiding shareholders. If it was found to be an intentional "ruse" as you suggest I'm sure they could be sued by their shareholder.

 

If that isn't enough... from January 2013:

 

“Beginning this fiscal year, we are reorganizing the presentation of our results to provide greater transparency,” Oppenheimer said. “In recent years, our guidance reflected a conservative point estimate of results every quarter that we had reasonable confidence in achieving. Going forward, we plan to provide a range of guidance that reflects our belief of what we are likely to achieve.”

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post #124 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

You're joking, right.

Yes I was joking.
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post #125 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by mistercow View Post

Not period.  The rate of change in their profit has been declining.  They also gave a flat guidance for the next quarter.  

Wtf are you talking about. analysis estimated EPS of $14.10 already took into consideration lower profit rate.
post #126 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

I think that flat guidance has worried a few analysts. I'm sure they expected guidance to be at least a tad higher considering that China Mobile just signed on.

Or it could be a ruse.

 

To try to restrain the outlandish WS predictions next time?

post #127 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by muppetry View Post
 

 

To try to restrain the outlandish WS predictions next time?

 

Huh?

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post #128 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by rob53 View Post

What a bunch of garbage. Apple has never competed in the low end of any product they have ever made. Apple continues to grow anyway. It develops new products it sees fit to market. It doesn't drop a ton of garbage every third Wednesday like others do. Do you realize how many of these low end products end up being sold at throw-away stores a few weeks after they are released? Apple isn't involved in this market because it doesn't have to be. The winner isn't the company that sells the most garbage, it's the one that sells what people keep and return to buy more. Every market can be "tapped" out but Apple has the ability to create new markets and has done so. Wall Street just doesn't understand great new products aren't released every week even when they think they should be. Wall Street is the worst click-bait organization in the world. It needs people to buy and sell stock so it makes money. Plain and simple.
The fallacy is that Apple creates new markets. Steve Jobs envisioned the iPad in the 80s and the technology just wasn't developed to do it until 2010. The iPad and iPhone are personal computers. There is no next category. Personal computers will continue to develop, but it will be like the development of the car. A big shift happens every 50 years. Unfortunately computers are not like cars. Computers are platform technologies and don't work well as niche markets, which is why Apple almost went out of business in the 90's. Apple has to address the larger market if it wants to be around in 50 years.
post #129 of 170
Unbelievable that the inability to make the 5s fast enough to meet the holiday demand means that Apple growth is declining, even as they post record sales and profits. Analysts are such morons masquerading as savants.
post #130 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

You can't compare the overall growth of the phone market to Apple when Apple doesn't play in every segment. The segment that is growing is the low end, but no one has proven that the low end is profitable.

IMO, Apple's biggest worry should be the large percentage of revenues that come from one product - iPhone. They need something new or need to do something significant with the iPad to increase its share of the pie. It's never good when a company is too dependent on one revenue stream.
Yes I can compare to growth of the overall market. That is precisely my point. If Apple doesn't address the growing market it can't grow. If the Denver Broncos refuse to play in the Super Bowl, they won't be champions. The high end of the market will dwindle to nothing in 20 years from now. Getting iPhone quality phones in 20 years will be like getting a ball point pen today. If Apple wants to be relevant it has to compete. It's obvious.
This horse shit about not needing to compete at the mid and low price points only applies to nascent technologies. That's over. If Apple doesn't adjust they will lose their position.
Edited by ash471 - 1/28/14 at 6:48pm
post #131 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Huh?

I think he was adding to my comment. Read: It could be a ruse to try to restrain the outlandish WS predictions next time.
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"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
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"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
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post #132 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by AdamC View Post

Guessing from your reply you know better than those guys at Apple on what to do.

Why not tell us what you would do if you are Tim Cook.

Try not to reply the same crap as new products which we all knw sort of.
No I'm not expecting a new product. I think that idea is horse shit. Apple needs to grow its platform. Start competing more on price and take market share. Yes that hits margin, but Apple can make up for it on services. It will sell more software and apps.
A bigger platform would allow it to dominate the mobile payment landscape. Hell, Apple could be a bank with its cash pile. It can't dominate mobile payments if it becomes a niche product.
Apple should be acquiring more and better assets that provide services that build the platform. Anything is better than sticking their heads in the sand by saying, "we'll just build good products and it will all work out"
Apple could pivot by striking deals with carriers to push the iPhone in exchange for discounts. Yes it would hit margin, but Apple doesn't need more cash, it needs a platform that will last. All these ideas can be done without sacrificing product quality.
If Apple really wanted to go crazy aggressive it could change its app hosting policies and start charging for free apps once the developer reach a certain number, like 100 million downloads. This would allow Apple to start skimming revenue from some of the big players like Google and Facebook. The cheaper Apple goes with the phones the more phones it would sell and the more leverage it would have against google and Facebook to charge for providing their app. Apple could kick Google's ass if it would just start thinking outside the box.
post #133 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Huh?

I think he was adding to my comment. Read: It could be a ruse to try to restrain the outlandish WS predictions next time.

 

That was what I meant - was that the ruse that you meant?

post #134 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eric Swinson View Post

If it was Apple Mobile Phone Co, inc. you may have a point, but Apple, inc. makes top tier produces across several categories. Saying they need a long term story in phones is like saying they need a long term story in iPods. They need new products that expand their ecosystem as well as create new revenue streams. ...They may or may not have a hard time replicating the same exponential success of the iPhone, but they certainly can find ways increase revenues. The next killer product category may not even be a device but a service....
Are you fucking kidding me? You think the mobile phone market could be like the iPod market? Want to place any bets on that? I predict the mobile phone market is going to be like the indoor flushing toilet... It's here to stay FOREVER.
Everyone has a mouth and an ear and they run them more frequently than their urethra, which is serviced by the toilet.
And I agree Apple's next big money maker is probably a service. However, they need to use their pile of cash and great products to dominate the handset market so that they have a chance to provide that next service product.
Tim Cook needs to ask himself if he wants to be like IBM or Blackberry. Remember when the crackberries said Blackberry would never go away? If Blackberry were smart, it would have bought the push email patents instead of fighting against them and then locked everyone out of the market of push email. Had blackberry done that I would be typing on a Blackberry instead of an iPhone.
post #135 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by ash471 View Post


Yes I can compare to growth of the overall market. That is precisely my point. If Apple doesn't address the growing market it can't grow. If the Denver Broncos refuse to play in the Super Bowl, they won't be champions. The high end of the market will dwindle to nothing in 20 years from now. Getting iPhone quality phones in 20 years will be like getting a ball point pen today. If Apple wants to be relevant it has to compete. It's obvious.
This horse shit about not needing to compete at the mid and low price points only applies to nascent technologies. That's over. If Apple doesn't adjust they will lose their position.

 

you equate market share with winning.   

in a capital market, profit share is winning.

 

To your take weak sauce analogy and twist it correctly and prove your logic wrong..... Why didn't the broncos play in the RoseBowl, the cotton bowl, the pro bowl, the iron bowl, the toilet bowl... because they didn't have to win _EVERY_ game, and in fact, in playing every game you weaken your self for the the important game.    The broncos don't have a minor league team, a junior high team, a college team, a pop warner team... they  focus on the minimum number of games needed to play to qualify as a NFL playoff team, and focus on winning the game that they value... the super bowl.

 

If apple wants to be relevant it has to innovate and stay above the fray, not stop R&D and climb into the race to the bottom.   The don't send Jony Ive to design ball point pens, because Billions of pens are sold a year, and pens are communications devices, and Apple is selling NONE in that market.

 

Market share isn't important... market desire is important.  the 'If you could afford it, what is the next smartphone would you buy' metric is consistently skewed that Apple retains its users, and attract current non-apple smartphone users.

 

when Apple's retention drops below 90% and Androids retention rate increases above 80%, that's when I would worry.  Until then, Android users are just future iPhone users on training wheels.

post #136 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOtherGeoff View Post

you equate market share with winning.   
in a capital market, profit share is winning.

To your take weak sauce analogy and twist it correctly and prove your logic wrong..... Why didn't the broncos play in the RoseBowl, the cotton bowl, the pro bowl, the iron bowl, the toilet bowl... because they didn't have to win _EVERY_ game, and in fact, in playing every game you weaken your self for the the important game.    The broncos don't have a minor league team, a junior high team, a college team, a pop warner team... they  focus on the minimum number of games needed to play to qualify as a NFL playoff team, and focus on winning the game that they value... the super bowl.

If apple wants to be relevant it has to innovate and stay above the fray, not stop R&D and climb into the race to the bottom.   The don't send Jony Ive to design ball point pens, because Billions of pens are sold a year, and pens are communications devices, and Apple is selling NONE in that market.

Market share isn't important... market desire is important.  the 'If you could afford it, what is the next smartphone would you buy' metric is consistently skewed that Apple retains its users, and attract current non-apple smartphone users.

when Apple's retention drops below 90% and Androids retention rate increases above 80%, that's when I would worry.  Until then, Android users are just future iPhone users on training wheels.
Unfortunately you are wrong. A Samdung galaxy whatever is a substitute for an iPhone. If a user picks a Samdung they don't pick an iPhone. That isn't true for choosing between the Super Bowl and the rose bowl. Those are different markets and you know it. To keep with the analogy, the enterprise server market is like the rose bowl. Apple doesn't have to compete there if it doesn't wasn't to.
If Apple doesn't compete in the handset market, the low end and mid tier will erode it to nothing. Apple can continue to make a lot of money while that happens and eventually become irrelevant (which is what is happening to Microsoft). Or, it can use its good product and cash to be a long time participant in the handset market.
post #137 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by ash471 View Post

The fallacy is that Apple creates new markets. Steve Jobs envisioned the iPad in the 80s and the technology just wasn't developed to do it until 2010. The iPad and iPhone are personal computers. There is no next category. Personal computers will continue to develop, but it will be like the development of the car. A big shift happens every 50 years. Unfortunately computers are not like cars. Computers are platform technologies and don't work well as niche markets, which is why Apple almost went out of business in the 90's. Apple has to address the larger market if it wants to be around in 50 years.

Apple is addressing the larger market with China. The middle class in China is growing every year and soon will be larger than the entire US population.
post #138 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by ash471 View Post


Are you fucking kidding me? You think the mobile phone market could be like the iPod market? Want to place any bets on that? I predict the mobile phone market is going to be like the indoor flushing toilet... It's here to stay FOREVER.
Everyone has a mouth and an ear and they run them more frequently than their urethra, which is serviced by the toilet.
And I agree Apple's next big money maker is probably a service. However, they need to use their pile of cash and great products to dominate the handset market so that they have a chance to provide that next service product.
Tim Cook needs to ask himself if he wants to be like IBM or Blackberry. Remember when the crackberries said Blackberry would never go away? If Blackberry were smart, it would have bought the push email patents instead of fighting against them and then locked everyone out of the market of push email. Had blackberry done that I would be typing on a Blackberry instead of an iPhone.

 

Or, you target the 10% of the world population that control 70% of the gross domestic product.   

 

Tim Cook needs to ask himself if he wants _Apple_ to be like Sotheby's.. a 270 year old company.  Sotheby's does quite well NOT trying to be everyone's auctioneer.

post #139 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by ash471 View Post


Unfortunately you are wrong. A Samdung galaxy whatever is a substitute for an iPhone. If a user picks a Samdung they don't pick an iPhone. That isn't true for choosing between the Super Bowl and the rose bowl. Those are different markets and you know it. To keep with the analogy, the enterprise server market is like the rose bowl. Apple doesn't have to compete there if it doesn't wasn't to.
If Apple doesn't compete in the handset market, the low end and mid tier will erode it to nothing. Apple can continue to make a lot of money while that happens and eventually become irrelevant (which is what is happening to Microsoft). Or, it can use its good product and cash to be a long time participant in the handset market.

the 150K a year household income consumer and the -20K a year consumer (college student) is a different market and you know it.

 

The enterprise server market is Premier league Football... Totally different game;-)  And the Bronco's didn't try to win that league either.

 

I understand your passion, and I do understand your  underlying logic.   I just feel it's flawed.   I spent dinner with a person who told me I was arrogant in saying Apple  didn't need to do NFC (after he spent 5 minutes saying NFC sucks).   He was wedded on the fact that 'no one is buying iPhones'  because 'everyone' is buying android based phones.  

 

My feeling is you buy what you can afford.   BMW isn't failing because it can't sell cars to college students.  Eventually, people begin to generate cash flow and they learn what then need from a car and if they aspire a higher performing car will purchase a BMW once they can afford it.  A lot just need a car. any car.. or a bus.  But some people 'value' a 'good car,' and are willing to pay a premium for it.   Apple's job is to make sure their devices attract enough of those people.and keep the 'delta' far enough to validate the profit premium.

 

The fact that people are not buying bicycles anymore (dumb cell phones) and are buying $0.99 android phones (Chevy Geo Metros) are learning how to be mobile device users, and what the desire in their phone.  A lot of people just want a phone and a browser and maybe 1 more app (FaceSpaceter).   They are not iPhone users.   And they aren't Samsung users... they are 'cheap phone users.'

 

Eventually the question is ecosystem and experience stickiness.  I'm arguing that apple has to innovate enough to keep the tactile experience above android/Samsung experience, give developers tools to build killer apps and establish a stickiness to the iTMS/AppStore (and eventually other transactional sub ecosystems).

 

In my analysis... the real threat isn't Samsung...  It's Amazon.  Only Apple and Amazon are positioned to deliver that hardware/software/apps/ecosystem that will compete in the Web 4.0 world.


Edited by TheOtherGeoff - 1/28/14 at 7:57pm
post #140 of 170
Back to their old, evil, ways?
post #141 of 170

The excitement is over for Apple...for now. I've followed Apple since 1980 with the Apple IIe.

 

The last decade - the Apple buzz was so strong. Steve J. created excitement. He was erratic and you never knew what he was going to do. I used to go to the Apple Stores all of the time, my kids excited, too. Waited with baited breath for keynote addresses.

 

Since Steve left, the buzz is gone. I rarely go to the Apple Store. I haven't watched a keynote in a couple of years. 

 

Tim Cook is stale. All he talks about is how "wonderful" and "amazing" everything is.

 

I do have an iPhone 5s, as do my family members, but iOS 7 is a mess, half finished. The new sounds from the Owl City guy are terrible and make the iPhone sound like an Android phone with their cheap speakers. The iOS backgrounds? Not great at all. One of them looks like the grassy field from the Windows Vista/7 background. Terrible. Really. Standards are not high at Apple for software. I did find one background for my iPhone that I like, but the green in the corner is the same color as the battery indicator, so it looks like my battery is drained on my phone! iOS misses the mark bigtime.

 

Let's face it. Apple makes money like MS. Both are in the same boat of little growth. They are mature, stable stocks/companies to invest in. Both return dividends. Apple has matured to that state and I expect Apple to be more of a caricature of its former self. 

 

Someone needs vision and drive on the software side and not make its software (iOS/OS X) be crap or mediocre or good (instead of insanely good).

 

Yes, the hardware is good. They make good products, but don't expect the stock to go much higher than it is now. I'm not an expert. Just my gut feeling of following Apple and seeing they have become like Microsoft.

 

Apple needs a radical troublemaker for a leader. Like Steve J. and the T-Mobile boss. Someone to shake and stir things up and keep the excitement going. Otherwise, it's flatlined.

 

Please don't get me wrong. I wish Apple had a good competitor, but it does not. The Android universe turns my stomach with sloppy products. 

 

Some people here think that Apple stock should be higher because of good, record profits, but stocks are what they are because that is what people thing they should be or are willing to pay. Analysts are given too much credit on these boards. Apple is not seen as a massive growth stock as before. They are not creating buzz like Amazon and Google with their buying sprees.

post #142 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post


Apple is addressing the larger market with China. The middle class in China is growing every year and soon will be larger than the entire US population.

 

So why is guidance flat for this current (fiscal 2nd) quarter?

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post #143 of 170
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

So why is guidance flat for this current (fiscal 2nd) quarter?

 

Because guidance can get bent, as can analyst expectations. The only thing that matters is what actually happens.

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply
post #144 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post
 

 

Because guidance can get bent, as can analyst expectations. The only thing that matters is what actually happens.

 

I doubt it. Oppenheimer has gone out of his way to ensure that it doesn't.

 

[unless, of course, you are making a direct correlation to Oppneheimer's abilities with analyst's abilities.]

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post #145 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

So why is guidance flat for this current (fiscal 2nd) quarter?

Have you not read anything about China Mobile's slow buildout of their LTE network?
post #146 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by ash471 View Post


I talked to an Apple engineer over the holiday break and he was genuinely excited about the product pipeline. I'm looking forward to more great Apple products

 

Weren't you arguing on another thread a week back saying that 100 years from now people will still use Google Search, whereas Apple may not be there because they are not exploring new products?

 

Now that you have spoken to an Apple engineer, you think they are exploring new products?

post #147 of 170

Anal guys can't stand the fact that Apple has become mature company with stable product supply and ongoing innovation. They are mad at Apple because it doesn't bring shocking surprises each 2-3 quarters that can make the AAPL to be as manipulative as before. They are trying to make it as volatile as possible, but they are also not very good at it any more, because they brought it at such idiotic low P/E ratio level.

 

Apple is by far the most innovative company in the IT business but still they can't deliver more that one breakthrough product at a pace of every 3-4 years. Apple has done so for 3 decades, however, anal guys think Apple started with iPod.

post #148 of 170
The Big Deal in China hasn't kicked in yet. Expect a 'beat' in the next quarter.
post #149 of 170
A publicly held company lives under a microscope. Analyst comments go with the territory. Yes, the stockholders are the owners. It is not anybodies private sandbox in which they are not accountable.
In this case analysts may be concerned about Apples near-death experience some years back now.
post #150 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by muppetry View Post

That was what I meant - was that the ruse that you meant?

Exactly
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
Reply
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
Reply
post #151 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by ash471 View Post

No I'm not expecting a new product. I think that idea is horse shit. Apple needs to grow its platform. Start competing more on price and take market share. Yes that hits margin, but Apple can make up for it on services. It will sell more software and apps.
A bigger platform would allow it to dominate the mobile payment landscape. Hell, Apple could be a bank with its cash pile. It can't dominate mobile payments if it becomes a niche product.
Apple should be acquiring more and better assets that provide services that build the platform. Anything is better than sticking their heads in the sand by saying, "we'll just build good products and it will all work out"
Apple could pivot by striking deals with carriers to push the iPhone in exchange for discounts. Yes it would hit margin, but Apple doesn't need more cash, it needs a platform that will last. All these ideas can be done without sacrificing product quality.
If Apple really wanted to go crazy aggressive it could change its app hosting policies and start charging for free apps once the developer reach a certain number, like 100 million downloads. This would allow Apple to start skimming revenue from some of the big players like Google and Facebook. The cheaper Apple goes with the phones the more phones it would sell and the more leverage it would have against google and Facebook to charge for providing their app. Apple could kick Google's ass if it would just start thinking outside the box.
I don't disagree that Apple needs to grow their platform but to say they don't need new product(s) is horse shit. Over 50% of Apple's revenue comes from one product. That is not healthy. Apple market cap dropped $40B in one day because one product didn't meet analyst expectations. That's nuts. Apple needs new revenue streams so they're not living and dying by iPhone.
post #152 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by ash471 View Post

Are you fucking kidding me? You think the mobile phone market could be like the iPod market? Want to place any bets on that? I predict the mobile phone market is going to be like the indoor flushing toilet... It's here to stay FOREVER.
Everyone has a mouth and an ear and they run them more frequently than their urethra, which is serviced by the toilet.
And I agree Apple's next big money maker is probably a service. However, they need to use their pile of cash and great products to dominate the handset market so that they have a chance to provide that next service product.
Tim Cook needs to ask himself if he wants to be like IBM or Blackberry. Remember when the crackberries said Blackberry would never go away? If Blackberry were smart, it would have bought the push email patents instead of fighting against them and then locked everyone out of the market of push email. Had blackberry done that I would be typing on a Blackberry instead of an iPhone.
Apple is never going to win by getting in a race to the bottom just to attract more market share. There will always be another company that can and will bring to market a similar product for cheaper. Plus the important metric is profitable market share. Just increasing market share for the sake of it isn't meaningful to the bottom line.

Apple needs to focus on making really great products that people are willing to pay for and aspire to own one day. The only way for Apple to be both high end and low end would be to have some sort of spin off business (like some of the big fashion houses or car companies do) for the low end. Personally I think Apple should focus on building a superior product with the best looking design that people drool over and want to own (and will pay a premium for). I think Apple ceases to be Apple if they start building cheap products in an attempt to gain market share.
post #153 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post


I don't disagree that Apple needs to grow their platform but to say they don't need new product(s) is horse shit. Over 50% of Apple's revenue comes from one product. That is not healthy. Apple market cap dropped $40B in one day because one product didn't meet analyst expectations. That's nuts. Apple needs new revenue streams so they're not living and dying by iPhone.

is that the products fault?  or the analysts.

 

When apple had multiple product streams... truly multiple... in the 90's... they lost focus.

 

They need to be innovative in the consumer space.   smart phones and portable computing (always on) is the future now.  the iPod was that first inkling of it from apple... the iPhone is a pocket  computer that makes calls.  The iPad will effectively lead to the elimination of the desktop computer.   My guess is Apple is working to eliminate the TV as dumb device (and by dumb... I mean the concept of I select a channel, whether it be channel 12, 238.2, disney app, or netflix), but that won't have the reach as the iPhone.

 

So back on point.   for analysts, Apple needs a new phone, not a new product, because there is no other market where people will spend $$250 a year on a technology device where Apple can make 30-50 margin (on top of 250-500 a year to connect it and make it useful).

 

For the corporation, Apple needs a new product.  and my guess is that its electronic payments... in effect, Apple becomes your bank (or the retailers bank).   yes the margins are smaller much smaller, but the penetration is pervasive.   

post #154 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by Flaneur View Post


Have you not read anything about China Mobile's slow buildout of their LTE network?

 

So you are saying that Apple is to expect absolutely zero gain [from China Mobile] for the next few months?


Edited by island hermit - 1/29/14 at 7:31am
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post #155 of 170

Apple needs someone with LONG TERM VISION.  Seriously.  All they are doing now is milking the innovations of the past 7 years with incrementally better phones and tablets.  Stop.  As seen by the last 6 Quarters grow is stuck at 5-10% revenue and profits are down 10%.

 

LONG TERM VISION.

 

Don't make the same mistake as the PC vs MAC era.  People want iPhones and iPads.  But face it.  Its WAY too expensive for so many people.  What Apple needs to do is increase market share.  PERIOD.  The top end is obviously saturated.  Apple grew top end by 7% and Samsung shrunk, and every other phone company shrunk.  Isn't it obvious that top end growth is over?

 

IMO, this is what Apple should do with the iPhone/iPad business:

 

CEO must make it known that margins will drop and they will agressively go for marketshare.

Be willing to let gross margins drop from 38% to 30%.

Expand the iPhone lineup:

price points from $300 - $700

screen sizes from 4 inches to 5 inches

The goal is to capture 25% of the worldwide market.

Then turn to services.  That is the key.  Once you own a massive marketshare Apple can make money off of payments, search, and software.  Eventually they need to charge for iOS. PERIOD. Even if its only $10 a year.  That alone would bring in $3B a year in pure profit (compared to now)

 

Bottom line is this:  Apple to needs to transition from a hardware company (hardware makes 90% of the profits for the company) to a mix of hardware, software, and services.  Possible even expand to business consulting for large IT conversions to iOS/OSX.  It has to come to a point where hardware is only 50% of revenue.  With that type of structure they can grow 15-20% again.

 

But Cook needs to make it CLEAR that margins and PROFITS will be hurt SHORT-TERM as they transition to growth again. 

post #156 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

Apple needs someone with LONG TERM VISION.  Seriously.  All they are doing now is milking the innovations of the past 7 years with incrementally better phones and tablets.  Stop.  As seen by the last 6 Quarters grow is stuck at 5-10% revenue and profits are down 10%.

 

LONG TERM VISION.

 

Don't make the same mistake as the PC vs MAC era.  People want iPhones and iPads.  But face it.  Its WAY too expensive for so many people.  What Apple needs to do is increase market share.  PERIOD.  The top end is obviously saturated.  Apple grew top end by 7% and Samsung shrunk, and every other phone company shrunk.  Isn't it obvious that top end growth is over?

 

IMO, this is what Apple should do with the iPhone/iPad business:

 

CEO must make it known that margins will drop and they will agressively go for marketshare.

Be willing to let gross margins drop from 38% to 30%.

Expand the iPhone lineup:

price points from $300 - $700

screen sizes from 4 inches to 5 inches

The goal is to capture 25% of the worldwide market.

Then turn to services.  That is the key.  Once you own a massive marketshare Apple can make money off of payments, search, and software.  Eventually they need to charge for iOS. PERIOD. Even if its only $10 a year.  That alone would bring in $3B a year in pure profit (compared to now)

 

Bottom line is this:  Apple to needs to transition from a hardware company (hardware makes 90% of the profits for the company) to a mix of hardware, software, and services.  Possible even expand to business consulting for large IT conversions to iOS/OSX.  It has to come to a point where hardware is only 50% of revenue.  With that type of structure they can grow 15-20% again.

 

But Cook needs to make it CLEAR that margins and PROFITS will be hurt SHORT-TERM as they transition to growth again. 

 

What have you done with sog35? Not that I necessarily want him back but, still, it's not right to kidnap people and then pretend to be them. :lol:
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post #157 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post
 

 

 

last earnings report from Apple and Samsung changed my mind.  I'm 100% convinced that the highend smartphone market and tablet market is totally saturated.  Combined Apple/Samsung shrunk YoY in the holiday quarter for highend phones and tablets.  It happens.

 

Now its time to focus on marketshare.  I'm not taking cheap ass phones for $100 but the $300-$600 level.  With a 25% share and 700,000,000 users Apple can start pumping out services and software for profits.  Software/Services have a much higher gross margins and those are much more sustainable once intrenched.  Look at friken windowsOS.  At some point when Apple has over a BILLION iOS users they can charge for software updates and make tens of billions of dollars on software.  Add iSearch.  iPayments, ect.

 

Bottom line is hardware earnings growth is over.(but not unit growth at mid range)  But software and services are HUGE opportunities.  Even if they only 'steal' 10-15% of revenue from Microsoft/Google that will lead to BILLIONS IN EARNINGS.

post #158 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by ash471 View Post


Are you fucking kidding me? You think the mobile phone market could be like the iPod market? Want to place any bets on that? I predict the mobile phone market is going to be like the indoor flushing toilet... It's here to stay FOREVER.
Everyone has a mouth and an ear and they run them more frequently than their urethra, which is serviced by the toilet.
And I agree Apple's next big money maker is probably a service. However, they need to use their pile of cash and great products to dominate the handset market so that they have a chance to provide that next service product.
Tim Cook needs to ask himself if he wants to be like IBM or Blackberry. Remember when the crackberries said Blackberry would never go away? If Blackberry were smart, it would have bought the push email patents instead of fighting against them and then locked everyone out of the market of push email. Had blackberry done that I would be typing on a Blackberry instead of an iPhone.

 

No, you need to ask yourself why you are so short sighted, because if you are thinking in terms of devices, incidental features and price points you have missed the point of innovation, and technological game changes.  If you think personal communications has reached its pinnacle in the form of a handheld smartphones and that building strong holds in existing technologies will keep you viable after the next big disruption You may as well be a card carrying member of the telegraph operators union.

 

You are right, the future is mobile. Even the iPod proved that. But the future may not, and probably won't, be a phone. I'd hate to be the CEO that built an enterprise delivering cheap phones to the masses erroding profits in the name of marketshare when the world is now using newfangled device X and you can't shift focus because Wall Street will eat you alive for abandoning your "core" business. By the way how is Jormal Ollila doing these days?

post #159 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

last earnings report from Apple and Samsung changed my mind.  I'm 100% convinced that the highend smartphone market and tablet market is totally saturated.  Combined Apple/Samsung shrunk YoY in the holiday quarter for highend phones and tablets.  It happens.

Now its time to focus on marketshare.  I'm not taking cheap ass phones for $100 but the $300-$600 level.  With a 25% share and 700,000,000 users Apple can start pumping out services and software for profits.  Software/Services have a much higher gross margins and those are much more sustainable once intrenched.  Look at friken windowsOS.  At some point when Apple has over a BILLION iOS users they can charge for software updates and make tens of billions of dollars on software.  Add iSearch.  iPayments, ect.

Bottom line is hardware earnings growth is over.(but not unit growth at mid range)  But software and services are HUGE opportunities.  Even if they only 'steal' 10-15% of revenue from Microsoft/Google that will lead to BILLIONS IN EARNINGS.

Hey, watch your language. "Apple can start pumping out . . ." / "Look at friken windowsOS . . ."

And worst of all, including all-time worst cliché: "Bottom line is hardware earnings growth is over . . ."

You want Apple to become a sleaze parasite and milk their customers like some other companies we could name here.

Making the greatest hardware keeps you honest. Technology doesn't lie. Microsoft's and Google's problem is that they never made serious hardware, and still don't. Their values haven't been tempered in the furnaces of what makes hardware hard.
Edited by Flaneur - 1/29/14 at 9:20am
post #160 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

So you are saying that Apple is to expect absolutely zero gain [from China Mobile] for the next few months?

Meditation on the "ob-" prefix.

Obstructive, obfuscative, obtuse . . .
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