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Wall Street concerned by lower-than-expected iPhone sales in Apple's holiday quarter - Page 3

post #81 of 170
These WS clowns should all be brought up on charges by the SEC for stock manipulation and price fixing. Unfortunately, the SEC has no balls.
post #82 of 170

The release of a larger iPhone will definitely help with sales but that is only a short term fix. After 4 years with essentially the same design for the iPhone  I also expect the iPhone 6 to look radically different so that should help boost sales and bring back some excitement.  Perhaps they will also figure out a better way forward for the successor to the 5c to address the growing midrange phone sector where most real growth is happening.

 

But ultimately Apple is far too dependent on the iPhone for growth. I am hoping for some completely new product categories to take the pressure off of iPhone sales. Home automation devices, a real iOS in the car product that goes well beyond what we have seen thus far, an AppleTV with DVR capabilities, HDMI in and out, and game support complete with a real controller, maybe a wearable type device. Who knows, but I hope all the talk about new products down the pipeline over the last 3 years is based on some actual new products and not just more refreshes of the current products. 

 

Never argue with an idiot. They will only bring you down to their level and beat you with experience. 

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Never argue with an idiot. They will only bring you down to their level and beat you with experience. 

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post #83 of 170

I actually went to listen to the Q&A. 

 

Reasons for fewer iPhones this year. 

1) They got the mix wrong - he admitted that. 

2) There is a change to the upgrade cycle where probably reduced the number of potential upgrades in the US. He thinks that will work out to normal - 3-8 months ( the carriers moved from 18 to 24 month upgrades).

3) Sell-Through was higher than Sell-In ( i.e. real sales better than shipments, which is their headline figures) because of difference in inventory level s last year.

 

That mostly explains the US.

 

Revenue was partly down because of a higher dollar, low iPod sales, and the deferral of income. 

 

Revenue next Q is down because.

 

1) Higher dollar.

2) They sold in a lot to channel last year, as they hadn't really got the iPhone 5 up to full capacity the previous Q.

3) China mobile is only in 16 cities, with the iPhone but is going to be in 300 eventually. 

4) low iPod sales ( a saturated market).

5) deferred revenue. 

 

Eventually I assume the deferred revenue will start to come good. 

 

Transcript here. http://www.morningstar.com/earnings/earnings-call-transcript.aspx?t=AAPL&pindex=6&qindex=1

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post #84 of 170

Really a perception problem.

 

Wall Street believes that Apple is the Titanic; forever doomed to hit an iceberg and sink.

 

Apple believes it is the iceberg; a powerful entity mostly hidden from view.

 

Icebergs are the disruptors, not Titanics.

post #85 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by ash471 View Post


Agree completely. This is a stockholder issue (and I own Apple stock). I talked to an Apple engineer over the holiday break and he was genuinely excited about the product pipeline. I'm looking forward to more great Apple products, but that doesn't mean Apple is going to make more money. Shareholders were fine with Apple accumulating cash when Apple was growing. Well guess what Tim Cook, Apple isn't growing anymore and we want our money. The CEO works for the shareholders and we don't believe Tim can invest that 160 billion as well as we can. It is our money, not his. Give it back.

What a pretentious douchebag! Shareholders DON'T OWN Apple, it's not YOUR MONEY, and you're not IN CHARGE! You are along for the ride in the game called investing, and if you don't like how the company conducts itself, you pull your coins out and go elsewhere.

 

If Apple were run by dipshits like you, it'd be run into the ground faster than you can blink, and 1997 would repeat all over again! GTFO!

post #86 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post

WS: it's Apple's fault that its actual data does not correspond to my wild guessing.

Exactly, earnings or sales don't miss estimates; estimates miss earnings. No one ever says "the weather missed estimates." They blame the weatherman for getting it wrong. Finance is the only industry where people blame their poor forecasting skills on reality. 
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post #87 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by asdasd View Post
 

I actually went to listen to the Q&A. 

 

Reasons for fewer iPhones this year. 

1) They got the mix wrong - he admitted that. 

2) There is a change to the upgrade cycle where probably reduced the number of potential upgrades in the US. He thinks that will work out to normal - 3-8 months ( the carriers moved from 18 to 24 month upgrades).

3) Sell-Through was higher than Sell-In ( i.e. real sales better than shipments, which is their headline figures) because of difference in inventory level s last year.

 

That mostly explains the US.

 

Revenue was partly down because of a higher dollar, low iPod sales, and the deferral of income. 

 

Revenue next Q is down because.

 

1) Higher dollar.

2) They sold in a lot to channel last year, as they hadn't really got the iPhone 5 up to full capacity the previous Q.

3) China mobile is only in 16 cities, with the iPhone but is going to be in 300 eventually. 

4) low iPod sales ( a saturated market).

5) deferred revenue. 

 

Eventually I assume the deferred revenue will start to come good. 

 

Transcript here. http://www.morningstar.com/earnings/earnings-call-transcript.aspx?t=AAPL&pindex=6&qindex=1

Finally, someone that speaks some common sense around here! I guess those anal-ysts didn't bother to listen to the Q&A, as those factors were spot-on and completely logical explanations / justifications.

post #88 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by ash471 View Post
 

Disagree here as well.  Tim Cook's stubbornness with selling a low priced phone is going to hurt Apple long term.  The long term story in phones are the services that you sell on top of the phone. Apple needs its platform to be big. The only way it can do that is by selling a lower priced phone that can compete in the market.  I realize that taking a hit on margins will actually probably cause the stock to drop in the short term.  However, I think in the long term having a large market share will be good for its services business like apps, iTunes, mobile payments, search, etc.

 

The sign of a good CEO is one that can see the future and do what is best for the company.  Based on Tim Cook's response to failing with the iPhone 5C I really question his ability to lead the company.  Essentially he is saying, we tried a different pricing structure and it failed so I'm just going to go back to making good products and hope it works out well for us.  Talk about a lack of vision.  Targeting the high end of the market was the right thing for Apple during the Steve Jobs years. However, it is damn obvious that Apple is in a different situation now and Tim needs to pivot.  The "great product strategy" is going to suck for shareholders.   

 

I disagree in many ways...

 

I won't say that Apple need to have a big platform, but to reach a minimum threshold, what I consider they have reached. Moreover, they clearly have the wealthy share of the market, what is a major achievement. 

 

I suspect you have doubts about T. Cook since Day 1. The fact is, is has been chosen by S. Jobs himself and he clearly knows how to manage this company. 

 

The iPhone 5c doesn't say more about T. Cook than "Mobile me" or the "Cube" for S. Jobs. 

 

"The great product strategy" is the strategy of S. Jobs. Should Apple goes on the same roads than Samsung, that will be the end of Apple. 

 

(note: as English is not my first language, I'm pretty sure that all is not grammatically right, but hopefully you should understand the idea ;))

post #89 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ochyming View Post

Why people still give these people any credit?
Because they are rich?

And the BBC is off, very off on this.
I wonder if it is a vendetta or just pure stupidity.

Stupid is a better reason. So many analysts and TV pundits were saying "buy Enron" before that company collapsed in a huge accounting scandal. Tells me that none of the talking heads knows anything.

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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post #90 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

WTF is racist about a colored iPhone? You should be banned for this comment.

There's a button for that.

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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post #91 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by ash471 View Post

 Where does Apple go from here? What's the plan? Failing on plan 1 is not a good sign.

 

Guessing from your reply you know better than those guys at Apple on what to do.

 

Why not tell us what you would do if you are Tim Cook.

 

Try not to reply the same crap as new products which we all knw sort of.

post #92 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by ash471 View Post
 

Disagree here as well.  Tim Cook's stubbornness with selling a low priced phone is going to hurt Apple long term.  The long term story in phones are the services that you sell on top of the phone. Apple needs its platform to be big. The only way it can do that is by selling a lower priced phone that can compete in the market.  I realize that taking a hit on margins will actually probably cause the stock to drop in the short term.  However, I think in the long term having a large market share will be good for its services business like apps, iTunes, mobile payments, search, etc.

 

The sign of a good CEO is one that can see the future and do what is best for the company.  Based on Tim Cook's response to failing with the iPhone 5C I really question his ability to lead the company.  Essentially he is saying, we tried a different pricing structure and it failed so I'm just going to go back to making good products and hope it works out well for us.  Talk about a lack of vision.  Targeting the high end of the market was the right thing for Apple during the Steve Jobs years. However, it is damn obvious that Apple is in a different situation now and Tim needs to pivot.  The "great product strategy" is going to suck for shareholders.   

 

If it was Apple Mobile Phone Co, inc. you may have a point, but Apple, inc. makes top tier produces across several categories. Saying they need a long term story in phones is like saying they need a long term story in iPods. They need new products that expand their ecosystem as well as create new revenue streams. They could be phones or kazoos, it doesn't matter but they will come. I don't recall any gap in time where the iPod went from being desirable to being an undesirable product hemorrhaging money for the company before the iPhone came along. They may or may not have a hard time replicating the same exponential success of the iPhone, but they certainly can find ways increase revenues. The next killer product category may not even be a device but a service built on the existing installed base. Mobile payments could be a silent but generous money printer for Apple.

 

Splitting hairs over the iPhone 5C that actually sold in higher volumes than the relegated 4S last year and with a greater profit margin than the iPhone 5 would have had it been downgraded to the cheaper seats, is not any indication of a misstep by Cook. If anything, it goes to prove that Apple's market is the high end and cheaper phones designed specifically to be cheaper are not what their customers want. This was validation of Cook's stated vision for Apple all along. 

post #93 of 170
Interesting that Apple hit the revenue and EPS estimates while "missing" the analysts numbers for the iPhone.

Makes you wonder how the analysts overall numbers could have made any sense - had Apple sold the analyst estimated 56 million iPhones, their revenue would have seriously beat the overall street numbers.

That Apple hit revenue and earnings numbers while missing iPhone unit numbers by 10% calls someones arithmetic skills into question.
post #94 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by tmay View Post
 

Really a perception problem.

 

Wall Street believes that Apple is the Titanic; forever doomed to hit an iceberg and sink.

 

Apple believes it is the iceberg; a powerful entity mostly hidden from view.

 

Icebergs are the disruptors, not Titanics.

 

Perhaps in future Apple should follows google and stop giving out guidance because whatever they do is just not right inspire of making a profit of $13b.

 

Perhaps in WS eyes all the tech companies are also in Apple's league that is making billions in profits, sadly not so.

post #95 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by MagMan1979 View Post
 

Finally, someone that speaks some common sense around here! I guess those anal-ysts didn't bother to listen to the Q&A, as those factors were spot-on and completely logical explanations / justifications.

 

Justification of factors for lower revenue next Q doesn't change the fact that it's still lower revenue for next Q.  That's what the stock price is based on - expected revenues.  i.e. Blackberry's report - we have lower revenue expectations for the next year because we don't expect to sell as much. Completely spot-on and logical.   Would it be wrong for their stock to devalue too?

 

If/when their revenues show an increased growth rate again, then their stock price will increase.

post #96 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by ealvarez View Post

Would you have said that to S. Jobs? 

I believe his reply would have been something along the lines of "F@!& off".
post #97 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post


Exactly, earnings or sales don't miss estimates; estimates miss earnings. No one ever says "the weather missed estimates." They blame the weatherman for getting it wrong. Finance is the only industry where people blame their poor forecasting skills on reality. 

The issue, I've come to see, is that when those analyst estimates on future earnings are acted on  (buy stock) and that drives up the stock price in response, when those estimates are revealed to be inaccurate the response is pulled back (stock is sold), and that reduces the price.

 

When the weather forecast is for rain I grab an umbrella: once the forecast is shown wrong with clearing skies, I get rid of the umbrella.... I might blame the weatherman but I still drop the umbrella.

 

Should the analysts or weather forecasters be believed? Or the P/E ratio this low? Different issues.

post #98 of 170

Cook doesn't know how to lead?

 

:???:

 

Not even counting the times when Cook took the reins in Jobs' absence, Cook led Apple to its biggest quarter ever (the one under discussion here), not just in terms of dollars, but in terms of sales. It's also one of Apple's best Mac quarters ever. 

 

And we're not talking sales based on a tired old business model (an OS and a lousy office suite) that ignores the pace of change (there's such a thing as making money from all the wrong things), but one that reflects in the most exacting way possible, everything that is important about current market dynamics. 

 

The problem here isn't Apple's performance, which is not only astounding in purely tech company terms, but also in terms of *any* company *ever*. 

 

This is the fourth-highest quarterly earnings by any company (any country). Of the six highest earnings ever, Apple now owns positions 4, 5, and 6. The top three are all oil companies.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_corporate_profits_and_losses#Largest_Corporate_Quarterly_Earnings_of_All_Time

 

Largest Corporate Quarterly Earnings of All Time:

 

 

 

The problem is Wall Street expectations (not Apple's performance), most of which do not (and need not) have any actual basis in reality.

 

And Apple's astounding achievement is based on what, exactly?  A closed, proprietary platform that fits into a vertical business model, with only a very limited number of products at its core. Streamlined product portfolio, no OEMs.  

 

Think about it.

post #99 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by jwdav View Post

Interesting that Apple hit the revenue and EPS estimates while "missing" the analysts numbers for the iPhone.

Makes you wonder how the analysts overall numbers could have made any sense - had Apple sold the analyst estimated 56 million iPhones, their revenue would have seriously beat the overall street numbers.

That Apple hit revenue and earnings numbers while missing iPhone unit numbers by 10% calls someones arithmetic skills into question.

 

Apple should really give Wall Street the middle finger.

 

No more iPhone stats.

No more ipad stats.

No more guidance.

 

Let the f'king earnings speak for itself.  Its beyond stupid that Apple beats EPS and revenue yet gets smashed because they missed iPhone units.  Not iPhone revenue, but UNITS.  Don't give them units stats from now on.  Look at Samsung, look at Amazon, look at Google.  All those bozo's give ZERO unit numbers.  The more you give Wall street the more you punish them.  Google also does not give guidance.  Apple should do the same.  Why give Wall Street TWO THINGS to tear down each earnings call?  (actual earnings and guidance).  Its total BS.

 

Then Apple needs to spend some of that millions of dollars to buy some media favors and gets favorable articles from IDC, Kantar, ect.  They need to PLAY THE GAME.  Everyone else plays dirty, so should Apple.

 

But the good thing?  I bought 100 more shares for about $500 each. 

post #100 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by mistercow View Post
 

 

Justification of factors for lower revenue next Q doesn't change the fact that it's still lower revenue for next Q.  That's what the stock price is based on - expected revenues.  i.e. Blackberry's report - we have lower revenue expectations for the next year because we don't expect to sell as much. Completely spot-on and logical.   Would it be wrong for their stock to devalue too?

 

If/when their revenues show an increased growth rate again, then their stock price will increase.

 

Apple SURPASED analysis EXPECTATIONS for EPS and Revenue. PERIOD.

post #101 of 170
Quote (from the article):
 The analyst said the fact that carriers are becoming more strict to 24-month upgrade cycles could serve as a sign that the "balance of power" between wireless providers and smartphone makers is shifting back to carriers.

Sheesh. The carriers are actually being pulled in the opposite direction, e.g., by T-Mobile's "uncarrier" approach which is pulling in millions of new customers (even with their sparse coverage) buying their own phones outright (or purchasing them on installment plans that terminate when paid in full, rather than via never-ending subsidy costs).  This alone makes this guy way behind the curve. 


I'm saving at least $40/month. THIS is more like the future (if people wise up at least).
 

Quote (from the article):
"Rather, the shortfall stemmed from lower than expected sales in the U.S.," he said. "Apple attributed part of the domestic shortfall to a change in carrier upgrade policies, which stretched the iPhone upgrade cycle among owners of the iPhone." 

More like Apple's stubborn hewing to their "ergonomic aesthetic" of small screens when the market was obviously increasingly embracing larger form factors in most price segments, while Apple's been going "la-la-la" about this issue.

Which is why I bought a Moto X and a T-Mob unlimited/unthrottled plan. Cheap enough to let me see what Apple does about the "size matters" issue this fall.

And their last chance with consumers like me for awhile if they don't bring out something I'm looking for, as otherwise I'll start to get too used to and invested in that other ecosystem.

 

Quote:

Originally Posted by G-News View Post
 

Stock is down 42.46$ as of this moment. It seems Apple has finally attracted the attention of "investors" that nobody really wants. It's a sick world we live in, where you can post a profit of over 13 billion and be punished for it by an 8% stock drop.

 

This is ridiculous.

 

P.S.: That also means by buying today, you'll make 8% profit within a week's time.

Another reason is that Apple gave "lower guidance" going forward - which the article should have been updated to reflect.  THAT always spooks investor's attitudes toward what's been "hyper growth company."

Apple's R&D spending as a percentage of revenue has always been (sometimes far) lower than most of its peers. Many apologists will tell you this is because their efforts are "smarter and more focused."  While I think it's more that they've been caught up in their own reality distortion field and have been complacent about the competitive landscape - missing obvious segment opportunities they could have been in if they'd opened their huge wallet (and had less idle cash in it to attract the iCahns of the world).

And that includes bringing out a new disruptive tech as well as a better reading of the phone market.

An iPhone, a Leatherman and thou...  ...life is complete.

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An iPhone, a Leatherman and thou...  ...life is complete.

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post #102 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfc1138 View Post

The issue, I've come to see, is that when those analyst estimates on future earnings are acted on  (buy stock) and that drives up the stock price in response, when those estimates are revealed to be inaccurate the response is pulled back (stock is sold), and that reduces the price.

When the weather forecast is for rain I grab an umbrella: once the forecast is shown wrong with clearing skies, I get rid of the umbrella.... I might blame the weatherman but I still drop the umbrella.

Should the analysts or weather forecasters be believed? Or the P/E ratio this low? Different issues.

Hence the saying 'buy on rumor sell on news'
"I got the answer by talking in my brain and I agreed of the answer my brain got" a 7 yr old explaining his math HW
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
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"I got the answer by talking in my brain and I agreed of the answer my brain got" a 7 yr old explaining his math HW
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
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post #103 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by tmay View Post
 

Really a perception problem.

 

Wall Street believes that Apple is the Titanic; forever doomed to hit an iceberg and sink.

 

Apple believes it is the iceberg; a powerful entity mostly hidden from view.

 

Icebergs are the disruptors, not Titanics.

Icebergs are melting as global warming continues. ;-)

post #104 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigpics View Post
 

Another reason is that Apple gave "lower guidance" going forward - which the article should have been updated to reflect.  THAT always spooks investor's attitudes toward what's been "hyper growth company."

Apple's R&D spending as a percentage of revenue has always been (sometimes far) lower than most of its peers. Many apologists will tell you this is because their efforts are "smarter and more focused."  While I think it's more that they've been caught up in their own reality distortion field and have been complacent about the competitive landscape - missing obvious segment opportunities they could have been in if they'd opened their huge wallet (and had less idle cash in it to attract the iCahns of the world).

And that includes bringing out a new disruptive tech as well as a better reading of the phone market.

Missing obvious segment opportunities ....

 

Apple, unlike other companies, does not set out to pursue every segment just because the opportunity is there. Apple didn't miss these opportunities. They ignore them. 

 

Reported R&D figures are manipulated by accountants. Only fools use them to compare the R&D being done at different companies.

post #105 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quadra 610 View Post
 

Cook doesn't know how to lead?

 

:???:

 

Not even counting the times when Cook took the reins in Jobs' absence, Cook led Apple to its biggest quarter ever (the one under discussion here), not just in terms of dollars, but in terms of sales. It's also one of Apple's best Mac quarters ever. 

 

And we're not talking sales based on a tired old business model (an OS and a lousy office suite) that ignores the pace of change (there's such a thing as making money from all the wrong things), but one that reflects in the most exacting way possible, everything that is important about current market dynamics. 

 

The problem here isn't Apple's performance, which is not only astounding in purely tech company terms, but also in terms of *any* company *ever*. 

 

This is the fourth-highest quarterly earnings by any company (any country). Of the six highest earnings ever, Apple now owns positions 4, 5, and 6. The top three are all oil companies.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_corporate_profits_and_losses#Largest_Corporate_Quarterly_Earnings_of_All_Time

 

Largest Corporate Quarterly Earnings of All Time:

 

 

 

The problem is Wall Street expectations (not Apple's performance), most of which do not (and need not) have any actual basis in reality.

 

And Apple's astounding achievement is based on what, exactly?  A closed, proprietary platform that fits into a vertical business model, with only a very limited number of products at its core. Streamlined product portfolio, no OEMs.  

 

Think about it.

 

 

You are wasting your breath. Those who want to condemn Cook will find reasons to do so. Here is the thing - there is nothing magical about earnings announcements. So the stock tanks a bit. Eventually it will come back up, only to tank again at some point. A day like yesterday simply provides a focal point. The company is no better and no worse off today than yesterday. If you're rich like Icahn, you take advantage of yesterday to buy more. If you are not, you shouldn't play the stock market.

post #106 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

 

Apple SURPASED analysis EXPECTATIONS for EPS and Revenue. PERIOD.

 

Not period.  The rate of change in their profit has been declining.  They also gave a flat guidance for the next quarter.  

post #107 of 170
Oh dear, oh dear! Some poor little rich boys think it is time to sell Apple shares and buy what ... Microsoft shares or Samsung shares? Let's hope Apple just ignore these parasites and keeps concentrating on what real CUSTOMERS think, and keep driving INNOVATION for the entire industry for decades to come.
post #108 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by pauldfullerton View Post

Oh dear, oh dear! Some poor little rich boys think it is time to sell Apple shares and buy what ... Microsoft shares or Samsung shares? Let's hope Apple just ignore these parasites and keeps concentrating on what real CUSTOMERS think, and keep driving INNOVATION for the entire industry for decades to come.

You left out Sony ... didn't Moody's just downgrade them to "junk" status? Ouch.

post #109 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by Landcruiser View Post

These WS clowns should all be brought up on charges by the SEC for stock manipulation and price fixing. Unfortunately, the SEC has no balls.

 

Price fixing? I'm not sure that's what this is.

post #110 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeaEarleGreyHot View Post
 

 

Price fixing? I'm not sure that's what this is.

You are probably right Jean Luc. :-)  But when a bunch of "analysts" all publish their similar positions in an effort to drive the price down, that is organized collusion.  And I'd bet many of them sold their interest in Apple just prior to publishing their speculations (and will be buying it back when they feel they've driven it down far enough). I also love how they try to pawn it off on "investors" being concerned. I'm an investor and I looked at the Apple numbers. Their overall performance is still excellent and a solid investment if it weren't for "analysts" manipulating the stock value.

post #111 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by gwmac View Post
 

The release of a larger iPhone will definitely help with sales but that is only a short term fix. After 4 years with essentially the same design for the iPhone  I also expect the iPhone 6 to look radically different so that should help boost sales and bring back some excitement.  Perhaps they will also figure out a better way forward for the successor to the 5c to address the growing midrange phone sector where most real growth is happening.

 

But ultimately Apple is far too dependent on the iPhone for growth. I am hoping for some completely new product categories to take the pressure off of iPhone sales. Home automation devices, a real iOS in the car product that goes well beyond what we have seen thus far, an AppleTV with DVR capabilities, HDMI in and out, and game support complete with a real controller, maybe a wearable type device. Who knows, but I hope all the talk about new products down the pipeline over the last 3 years is based on some actual new products and not just more refreshes of the current products. 


I accept that Apple definitely needs to diversify, but that will be an incredible challenge because of the "Market Share" problem. It amazes me that people seem to think that iOS in the car is going to take off outside of the US. The problem is that as long as Apple follows the closed-shop proprietory strategy they will be a niche player in the world markets and I find it challenging to believe that non-us auto makers are going to swallow this and make themselves dependent on Apple .. where the market share of Apple in the target markets of the Auto industry is around 20%. That won't fly. US Auto makers are insignificant outside of the US. It would also be silly to assume that Apple understands the market dynamics and market strategy of the Auto industry. It is more sensible to assume that the Auto Makers who have joined the google initiative have good reasons for making that decision.

 

Similarly the home automation market ... as long as Apple is a niche player they will not be able to compete .. not just with Google and their Home Automation, but with other competitors also focussing on interoperability, brand neutrality and other open market strategies. Apple is not strong on embedded systems. I think these are all areas where "Market share" will be a defining factor and will take on a significance that many on AI don't see because of their obsessions.

post #112 of 170
As for next quarter's lowered guidance, why would analysts expect Apple to sell more the quarter after the winter holidays? ?? They are a consumer product tech firm. .

This time they beat the EPS and Gross Revenue numbers. So the analysts comeup with the number of phones sold as their complaint? Every qtr it is something else that they miss

Also there is deferred revenue.
And the 14 to 26% increases in sales of software, apps, iTunes.

Nope. Analysts will never get Apple. Too busy crunching numbers from something somewhere. Sharp pencil points but dull players.

That does it. I'm changing my sig.
What is really factored into the price is a kind of perpetual sense of disbelief that any company could be as good as Apple is. ~Retrogusto
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What is really factored into the price is a kind of perpetual sense of disbelief that any company could be as good as Apple is. ~Retrogusto
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post #113 of 170
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

Apple SURPASED analysis EXPECTATIONS for EPS and Revenue. PERIOD.

 

I just heard on the news that, quote, “revenue did not meet Apple’s expectations.”

 

Apple needs to sue whoever said that.

Originally Posted by asdasd

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Originally Posted by asdasd

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post #114 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigpics View Post
 

Another reason is that Apple gave "lower guidance" going forward - which the article should have been updated to reflect.  THAT always spooks investor's attitudes toward what's been "hyper growth company."

Wrong.  Prior to earnings release, AAPL traded around 550 which is 13.9 P/E.  How is that anywhere near investor attitude toward "hyper growth"?

 

Would have been a different story if AAPL were at P/E of 17+....then the "lower guidance" would spook enough to shave off 8%.

 

All of you who are trying to explain the drop in share price due to financial data (via past earnings release) are just showing your true colors (which is probably yella or green).  :-)

post #115 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by tmay View Post
 

Really a perception problem.

 

Wall Street believes that Apple is the Titanic; forever doomed to hit an iceberg and sink.

 

Apple believes it is the iceberg; a powerful entity mostly hidden from view.

 

Icebergs are the disruptors, not Titanics.

You are on to something ("hidden from view")...but it also seems that Apple's DNA is so different from the other market darlings (i.e. Amazon, Google, etc. with higher P/E and share prices).  It hurts Apple's brand to either brag about the future or to throw crap against the wall and work with whatever sticks.

 

There WILL BE opportunity in the near future for Apple to monetize on other value-added products or services such as aTV, NFC-type payments, iWatch, etc.  But it comes when it comes, and it'll surprise Wall Street off their asses cause EPS will increase and P/E will finally be restored to the 17+ range.  Apple's ecosystem IS HUGE...especially when you consider not just the numbers of people, but the quality of people (i.e. those who can be influenced to spend money).

post #116 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by StruckPaper View Post
 

Missing obvious segment opportunities ....

 

Apple, unlike other companies, does not set out to pursue every segment just because the opportunity is there. Apple didn't miss these opportunities. They ignore them. 

 

Reported R&D figures are manipulated by accountants. Only fools use them to compare the R&D being done at different companies.

 

No two dollars spent on R&D produce the same results. While there is some benefit to having massive budgets, if it were a simple matter of throwing money at it, Apple could have have already developed a century's worth of innovative products, cured cancer and established world peace. ...And we would all be bitching that the windows on our personal space stations were too small. 

post #117 of 170

AP is reporting Apple's earnings as "lackluster," even though they were the fourth best results in the history of quarterly corporate earnings results (and the best ever of a non-oil/gas company). 

 

http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/apple-shares-tumble-lackluster-earnings-22264506

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_corporate_profits_and_losses (scroll down to quarterly earnings)

 

I understand that expectations were higher and the growth in terms of percentage is lower than it was a few years ago, but it's hard to not be impressed with a company that makes $13.1 billion in a single quarter, unless you've totally lost perspective. As of last April, for example, Amazon's total lifetime earnings were $1.9 Billion, and I know they've posted some losses since then. 

 

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/04/18/1-mind-blowing-comparison-of-apple-and-amazon.aspx

 

http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2013/10/25/amazon_earnings_jeff_bezos_is_like_king_midas_in_reverse_chart.html

 

And I don't think you can really say Apple's growth is over, if iPhones, iPads and Mac sales are all growing. Oh, and did I mention that iPhone Average Selling Price was also up?

 

In the quarter when Apple shares were at their peak (just over $700), Apple made a profit of $8.67 per diluted share, and this quarter it was only...$14.50 per diluted share. I know that's because "the market" was expecting growth to continue at its previous rate, but the overreaction is kind of nutty.

post #118 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

I just heard on the news that, quote, “revenue did not meet Apple’s expectations.”

Apple needs to sue whoever said that.

Revenue never meets expectations, we all expect to make more money than we actually do. lol.gif
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post #119 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by mistercow View Post
 

 

Not period.  The rate of change in their profit has been declining.  They also gave a flat guidance for the next quarter.  

 

I think that flat guidance has worried a few analysts. I'm sure they expected guidance to be at least a tad higher considering that China Mobile just signed on.

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post #120 of 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

I think that flat guidance has worried a few analysts. I'm sure they expected guidance to be at least a tad higher considering that China Mobile just signed on.

Or it could be a ruse.
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