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Incoming Apple retail chief Angela Ahrendts to be named Dame of the British Empire - Page 5

post #161 of 164
Quote:
Originally Posted by BestKeptSecret View Post
 

Wow! Sog35's off the deep end. I heard that even Constable Odo send him a PM asking him to tone down his 'fire Timid Cook' rants!

 

Losing a few thousand in a day can make even the best people a bit edgy.

 

... but now we've got a Dame looking after Apple retail... so all should be good now.

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post #162 of 164
Quote:
Originally Posted by tribalogical View Post
 

 

I've been avoiding your incessant rant here, but now I'm getting annoyed by it. So I'm going to engage it instead. 

 

I'm not at all clear by what you mean when you say "profits down 10%" in the last year. Where are you getting this? What are you referring to exactly? 

 

Margins? Annual net earnings total? 

 

You're the first and only person I've seen that is using those words here (or anywhere else I've read). "Profits down 10% the past year". 

 

It seems to me that it's also an odd time to be ranting, just after one of their best quarters EVER was just announced? Sales, revenue, profits, even margins on the rise (though those are still down from historic -- and IMO unhealthy -- highs in the 40-percentile range)...

 

Regardless. What are you basing that statement "Profits down 10% the past year" on? Something credible and tangible please. Let's start there...

 

I'm talking about EPS.

 

Last 4 quarters including 12.31.13 Qtr:

14.50 - 12.31.13

8.26 - 09.30.13

7.47 -06.30.13

10.09 - 03.31.13

 

Total = 40.32

 

Previous 4 Qtrs

13.81 - 12.31.12

8.67 - 09.30.12

9.32 - 06.30.12

12.30 - 03.31.12

 

Total = 44.10

 

Calender year 2012 EPS = 44.10

Calender year 2013 EPS = 40.32

Profit decline = 8.57%

 

And if you take the buyback into consideration (Apple has bought back about 5%) then its down about 10%

post #163 of 164
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

 

I'm talking about EPS.

 

Last 4 quarters including 12.31.13 Qtr:

14.50 - 12.31.13

8.26 - 09.30.13

7.47 -06.30.13

10.09 - 03.31.13

 

Total = 40.32

 

Previous 4 Qtrs

13.81 - 12.31.12

8.67 - 09.30.12

9.32 - 06.30.12

12.30 - 03.31.12

 

Total = 44.10

 

Calender year 2012 EPS = 44.10

Calender year 2013 EPS = 40.32

Profit decline = 8.57%

 

And if you take the buyback into consideration (Apple has bought back about 5%) then its down about 10%


I think you're backwards on the effect of the buyback. And you also have to count in the dividends paid out of revenue. The net profit is "final", that is after all expenses including share repurchasing and dividends.

 

If you analyze Apple's annual financial reports for 2012 and 2013, you'll see that there are quite a number of factors affecting the (frankly minimal) downturn in net margins and profits. 

 

Just a few examples among them:

- substantially increased COGS (this is something no CEO has complete control of, especially with an electronics company so dependent on 3rd party supply). This is a large part of the overall gross profit decline.

- increased share buyback

- increased dividend payouts (from $2.05/qtr per share to over $3/qtr per share)

- significantly increased depreciation recorded last year

 

It's very important to note that they saw this "profit reduction" during a time of substantial sales/revenue growth (yes, less than previous years, but still double-digit growth). There was not a precipitous fall in margins year on year, no "negatively accountable" events at the executive level. Simply market forces, costs vs sales, and the result. 

 

The reduction in overall operating profit also in great part directly a result of what shareholders wanted!! Share buyback and dividends, among other things. They want more of the "profit" redistributed to shareholders.

 

What is the natural result of doing that going to be? The company will have less cash on hand.

 

What you're talking about isn't the direct result of one CEO hand. It's a huge number of small things that in many cases aren't manageable enough to be predictable. They are managed, but given plenty of room for variance.

 

In my view, after analyzing the annual reports is that Apple did quite well overall, and taking broader market conditions into account, they did even better, exceeding the market and competition by wide margins in most cases.

 

I think your complaints are frankly misguided, and driven by the passion of a financial loss. You're looking for someone to "blame", when perhaps there is little or none actually deserved.

 

I studied Apple's guidance, compared it to the quarterly report and previous year. Nothing in there justifies the sell off we've seen. I believe there are large holdings selling for profit, driving the stock down, and then will repurchase at the lower price. That downward drive is being supported by those same people hitting the airwaves with FUD alerts and convincing reasons to flee the stock NOW. 

 

Personally, I think you sold too soon. If I were you, I'd be buying now. And all the way down. It will be back sooner than you think... 

 

Just another opinion!

post #164 of 164
Actually the share buyback has the effect of INCREASING EPS. Fewer shares means more earnings per share. So had Appe not purchased shares the EPS discrepancy between 2012 and 2013 would have been worse.

And, IMO, a large part of the stock drop was due to the incredibly weak guidance. They estimated revenues for the next 3 months that would be flat or possibly lower than the same quarter last year. And last year they did not have China Mobile. So essentially they are saying that the gains from CM in the next year might just enable them to match last year's revenue. Or not. Not a sign of growth at all, but a sign of possible contraction. Unless they are low-balling the estimate, which they promised theh were no longer doing.
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