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Apple's iPad, iPhone face flagging growth as conventional markets reach saturation - Page 2

post #41 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

Apples sold 77 million iOS devices last quarter, the highest ever and we're supposed to believe the market is saturated?

How many were new buyers? It's only natural that growth will slow down. A huge tree grew exponentially at first at once it reaches a certain size that growth slows down substantially but it still remains a huge tree that's only getting bigger.
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
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"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
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post #42 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

Someone just lost a boatload on Tuesday and is throwing a temper tantrum. Rather than temper tantrums they should just cut their losses and move on to something else.

They lost on paper, it only becomes a real loss if they sell. The smart ones will ride this out, and if they're really smart buy more stock.
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
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"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
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post #43 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by Maestro64 View Post
 

 This is a perfect example of how Statistics lie, They trying to show that Lenovo is growing faster than anyone so they are better, they make this statement in a article which talks about a saturated market, which is probably a true statement since everyone who plans to buy have bough at the particular price point. But Lenovo could have sold 1 last year and 325 this year and had a growth of 325%, so which number are you more in pressed with, selling 325 and 325% growth or 26M and 10% growth, which company do you want to work for.

 

before anyone goes nuts, I know Lenovo sold more than 325 units, but when you numbers are small in a big world small increases can be shown as large % if you do not know the numbers behind the %, remember statistician use the % sign to hide the real numbers and they do not want you looking at the guy behind the curtain.

 

And this is a perfect example of twisting the facts. Lenovo is one of the top five (maybe higher) computer manufacturers in the world, certainly in the same league as Apple.

post #44 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post
 

 

The fourth best quarter of any company in human history and selling more devices than ever before is “messing up” now?

 

Look at FY2012 vs FY2013.  Earnings is DOWN by 10%

 

Who cares what a single quarter says.

 

yes hes messing up.  He was given a locomotive going 150mph but because all his stupid decisions he has done something I didn't think was possible.  Slow down the train to a point that a FRIKEN generic Korean manufacter is right at their heals. Pathetic.

post #45 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post


They lost on paper, it only becomes a real loss if they sell. The smart ones will ride this out, and if they're really smart buy more stock.

 

People said the same thing when it dropped below 700

then 650

than 600

than 575

than 550

 

Personally I'm getting out ASAP.  Once I can get a decent exit about $530.  I will stay out until they release an amazing product.

post #46 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post

How many were new buyers? It's only natural that growth will slow down. A huge tree grew exponentially at first at once it reaches a certain size that growth slows down substantially but it still remains a huge tree that's only getting bigger.
And that's the key....once you get so big expecting huge growth (at least in existing product lines) is ridiculous. That's why I said in other threads that Apple needs new revenue streams, and needs to grow iPad into more than what it is now. I have no doubt that's what Cook and team are working on.

And for everyone we is bitching about Cook...I guess the one they really need to be upset with is. Jobs. Jobs made Cook CEO and is responsible for the executive team Apple has. If you think they're not doing their job then obviously Jobs didn't do a very good job picking an executive leadership team, or in succession planning,
post #47 of 147
You buy one $700 newspaper/mag/book reading device and that's enough.

And then there's the never ending sync issue now.
 
Where's the new Apple TV?
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Where's the new Apple TV?
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post #48 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

People said the same thing when it dropped below 700
then 650
than 600
than 575
than 550

Personally I'm getting out ASAP.  Once I can get a decent exit about $530.  I will stay out until they release an amazing product.

When do you think it will hit 530 again? Next year? By then they will have released the next new thing...right?
What is really factored into the price is a kind of perpetual sense of disbelief that any company could be as good as Apple is. ~Retrogusto
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What is really factored into the price is a kind of perpetual sense of disbelief that any company could be as good as Apple is. ~Retrogusto
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post #49 of 147
This article was brought to you by Carl Icahn.
post #50 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

And that's the key....once you get so big expecting huge growth (at least in existing product lines) is ridiculous. That's why I said in other threads that Apple needs new revenue streams, and needs to grow iPad into more than what it is now. I have no doubt that's what Cook and team are working on.

And for everyone we is bitching about Cook...I guess the one they really need to be upset with is. Jobs. Jobs made Cook CEO and is responsible for the executive team Apple has. If you think they're not doing their job then obviously Jobs didn't do a very good job picking an executive leadership team, or in succession planning,

I think Cook is doing a splendid job. He has that big fine tree bearing plenty of fruit. I don't believe that things would be any different if SJ were still alive, but instead of the masses screaming "fire Tim Cook" they'd be saying "I'm not worried, SJ surely has something coming up soon", Tim Cook will never get the confidence that people had with SJ.
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
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"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
Reply
post #51 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post


And that's the key....once you get so big expecting huge growth (at least in existing product lines) is ridiculous. That's why I said in other threads that Apple needs new revenue streams, and needs to grow iPad into more than what it is now. I have no doubt that's what Cook and team are working on.

And for everyone we is bitching about Cook...I guess the one they really need to be upset with is. Jobs. Jobs made Cook CEO and is responsible for the executive team Apple has. If you think they're not doing their job then obviously Jobs didn't do a very good job picking an executive leadership team, or in succession planning,

 

Jobs is dead. The Apple board is not.

post #52 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post

I think Cook is doing a splendid job. He has that big fine tree bearing plenty of fruit. I don't believe that things would be any different if SJ were still alive, but instead of the masses screaming "fire Tim Cook" they'd be saying "I'm not worried, SJ surely has something coming up soon", Tim Cook will never get the confidence that people had with SJ.
Exactly. Also, something no one has ever been able to answer satisfactorily, what exactly pushed Apple stock to $700 and was that realistic or some irrational exuberance on the part of Wall Street? What was Tim Cook doing so well in 2012 that he's not doing now?
post #53 of 147
And the company consistently making the most profit in the phone and tablet market would be who?
post #54 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by maccherry View Post

Wall Street plays this twisted game where everything has to grow all the time. And that's the problem with publicly traded companies. They are pimped to always grow and grow.
Apple needs to become a private company.

That pretty much sums it up. I wish Apple was in the position to do that. While I think Dell made some huge mistakes, the fact that they are private now must be a huge weight off the company. Apple is such a massive company based on revenue, that as time goes on, it will be harder to appease Wall Street based purely on projected future earnings and growth. That's not even looking at the fact that there are outside forces influencing the stock. I wonder if the long play for them is to slowly buy up enough stock while building the cash hoarde, to do that.

Any folks have some thoughts on the feasibility of that?
post #55 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by marubeni View Post

Jobs is dead. The Apple board is not.

And do you really think that things would be different if Jobs was still alive? Only your mindset would be different.
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
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"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
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post #56 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by marubeni View Post

Jobs is dead. The Apple board is not.
But the same people deifying Jobs are the ones bitching about Cook & Co - the leadership team Jobs put in place and groomed to take over for him.
post #57 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

This is the new reality.

 

7% unit growth for iPhone in Christmas quarter is a slap in the face to reality.

Apple needs to sell a NEW mid range phone ASAP ($350-$400)

 

No.

post #58 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

Exactly. Also, something no one has ever been able to answer satisfactorily, what exactly pushed Apple stock to $700 and was that realistic or some irrational exuberance on the part of Wall Street? What was Tim Cook doing so well in 2012 that he's not doing now?

Another thing people forget is that in the midst of exponential growth the stock went down to $80 in 2008. If the stock price is bothersome than don't pay it any mind.
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
Reply
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
Reply
post #59 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by DCJ001 View Post

No.

They'll still get hammered because of the lower profit margin.
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
Reply
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
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post #60 of 147
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

Who cares what a single quarter says.

 

Yeah, who cares what a quarter full of new developments says. OOPS, that’s exactly what the idiots have been whining for Cook to do, ignoring everything he has been doing already.

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply
post #61 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post
 

 

The fourth best quarter of any company in human history and selling more devices than ever before is “messing up” now?

 

Apple's 1st quarter is already history. Stock performance (share price) is based on future growth and earnings, so, yes, an argument can be made that Apple is messing up now. Why? Because in order to keep the juggernaut going, something has to happen in one way or another, like another killer iPhone app or a new killer category device.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post
 

 

Or wait the two weeks until the stock goes back above where it was. :lol:

People are expressing their concern that Apple's growth machine (the iPhone) is reaching its unit sales limit (indicated by ~10% YoY sales growth) and you joke about it? Apple are not perfect and, by Tim Cook's own admission, the 5C hasn't sold well, so what makes you think the next growth generator (iWatch or iTV or iWhatever) is going to be the blockbuster that takes them to the next level?

 

While some are being prudent with their investment, you and others here are banking on the next "great white hope". From an investor's standpoint, the concerned are taking a much smarter approach towards Apple than you (and others here) are. If the reason why you're not concerned and joking about it is because you are not, in fact, an AAPL investor, then I can understand taking your point of view. I've been an AAPL investor since 1997 and lately, the stock's performance has been of great concern to me….and a lot of other AAPL investors, also.

 

After the last couple of earnings reports it is wise to blindly believe in a company when there are warning signs that people should pay attention to?

Why does Apple bashing and trolling make people feel so good?

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Why does Apple bashing and trolling make people feel so good?

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post #62 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post


Technically if you sell 325 after selling 1, it's 32,400% growth. But I agree with the words.

yeah miss that math mistake okay sold 3.25 the next year

post #63 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post


Except Apple made it clear on the conference call that the China Mobile roll out would take time.

 

Whether that is the case or not, it still doesn't change the fact that Apple guidance means they're not expecting much growth over the next quarter - which is why you see the stock taking a dip.  

post #64 of 147
Originally Posted by Dickprinter View Post

Because in order to keep the juggernaut going, something has to happen in one way or another, like another killer iPhone app or a new killer category device.

 

YEAH. There sure are signs that any of that isn’t coming. Oh, wait, they’re always making something new that everyone wants.

 
by Tim Cooks own admission, the 5C hasn't sold well

 

No, sorry, try again. This time actually read what he said, not what you want him to have said.

 

The 5C sold better in its position than the 4S did the year before. It didn’t do as well as they expected, but it did better than any previous product.

 
…so what makes you think the next growth generator (iWatch or iTV or iWhatever) is going to be the blockbuster that takes them to the next level?

 

Is that a joke?

 
After the last couple of earnings reports it is wise to blindly believe in a company when there are warning signs that people should pay attention to?

 

When the “warning signs” are all based in ignorance… 

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply
post #65 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

If someone is concerned about Apple's growth or Tim Cook as CEO then sell your stock and go buy Google or Amazon rather than coming here and throwing a temper tantrum because you've taken a bath on your Apple investment.

Smart investors have already done that.
Smart investors know that posting rants here will not change their fortunes.

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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post #66 of 147

Sold 150 shares at $500

 

I give up on this POS

post #67 of 147

This is why stock buybacks are useless. Apple spent $50 billion buying their shares and the stock price is back to where it was last October.

post #68 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by marubeni View Post
 

 

And this is a perfect example of twisting the facts. Lenovo is one of the top five (maybe higher) computer manufacturers in the world, certainly in the same league as Apple.

Not twisting the facts, As I said if you enter a large market and your numbers are small since you just started out and then the next year you sell more but still small in the large picture, your % growth can look high and people get all excite when in 

 

To make the example more realistic, apple sold 26M and 10% growth and Lenovo sole 3.25M and grew 325% since they previously only sold 1M. but the total market grew say 20% or 20M units and Apple capture 2.6M of the growth to Lenove capture 2.2M again Apple capatured more of the total growth and Lenovo. If Lenovo was doing such a good job they should have beat Apple grow numbers but they probably didn't but the statistic hid these facts.

 

This is just an example and my number are most likely complete wrong and I recognize that. I just to demonstrate how you can cut the numbers to tell a story they way you want to to appear.

post #69 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by RalphMouth View Post
 

This is why stock buybacks are useless. Apple spent $50 billion buying their shares and the stock price is back to where it was last October.

 

Just think of where it would be if Apple hadn't bought back any shares.

na na na na na...
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na na na na na...
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post #70 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dickprinter View Post

Apple's 1st quarter is already history. Stock performance (share price) is based on future growth and earnings, so, yes, an argument can be made that Apple is messing up now. Why? Because in order to keep the juggernaut going, something has to happen in one way or another, like another killer iPhone app or a new killer category device.
People are expressing their concern that Apple's growth machine (the iPhone) is reaching its unit sales limit (indicated by ~10% YoY sales growth) and you joke about it?

The joke was people that believed that exponential growth could be maintained perpetually. Now I'd say it might be time to worry if a competitor was gaining but while Apple went forward its nearest competitor went back.
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
Reply
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
Reply
post #71 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by Suddenly Newton View Post


Smart investors have already done that.
Smart investors know that posting rants here will not change their fortunes.

 

True... but ranting can have its own positive psychological effects.

na na na na na...
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na na na na na...
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post #72 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

Sold 150 shares at $500

I give up on this POS

Ye of little faith.
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
Reply
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
Reply
post #73 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post


The joke was people that believed that exponential growth could be maintained perpetually. Now I'd say it might be time to worry if a competitor was gaining but while Apple went forward its nearest competitor went back.

 

I'd say they are all equally in trouble... some just have more to lose than others.

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post #74 of 147
Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post
Ye

 

[pointless and irrelevant comment about word a day calendars]

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply
post #75 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post
 

 

Just think of where it would be if Apple hadn't bought back any shares.


correct.

They would have shown NEGATIVE EPS in their biggest quarter.

 

Stock would be $400-$450

post #76 of 147
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

Stock would be $400-$450

 

I’m all for dropping the market cap to a purchasable level.

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply
post #77 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post


Exactly. It blows my mind people on this site have such a hard time understanding this. Apple isn't Doomed, but AAPL isn't quite as clear.

Considering the mean education level of the people on this site, it doesn't blow my mind.

post #78 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

This article is talking about growth.

So... everybody has a phone. Then they upgrade.

Are they using both phones? Did the market grow? If you answered "No" to both of these questions then, answer this, "Did Apple grow?".

Let's pretend everyone on Earth has an iPhone. Then what? How could Apple grow?

Would Apple need to open an Apple Store on Mars? 1smile.gif
post #79 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by Maestro64 View Post

yeah miss that math mistake okay sold 3.25 the next year

Still not right. The correct number would be 4.25.
post #80 of 147

In the most basic layman's terms, then:  Virtually everyone has an iPhone - or rather, nearly all of Apple's target demographic is already using Apple products and is well-invested in Apple's proven ecosystem - so "new growth" will slow. 

 

So Apple owning the most desirable parts of the market that it created is a major problem? Growth will slow but Apple will still keep selling new devices to these consumers. But you've (that is, Apple) basically won the game here. So you can either continue to keep selling to these consumers and sustain *some* growth that will keep you lush and flush for years to come, or you can open up new revenue streams by keynoting The Next Big Thing and tying that in to what you already have, or taking it all to a new platform paradigm.

 

All I see here is a) something all companies aspire to but which Apple has mastered in their area(s) of competence, and b) astounding opportunity. You've basically got a customer base that *you own*, and which depends on you for their tech lifestyle. To whom you can now turn around and with a more than even chance bind them further to you with The Next Big Thing. 

 

And none of the foregoing even considers China as a source *brand new* (rather than sustained) virgin growth. 

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