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Morgan Stanley sees 'iWatch' ringing up $17.5B from iPhone users in first year - Page 2

post #41 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by dysamoria View Post

I'm an iPhone owner and I have zero interest in a watch of any kind. Certainly not some expensive wearable electronic jewelry.

One of the primary functions of my iPhone is to be a clock and all the other things a watch does. Beyond that, it's a portable computer with robust Internet access, a calendar & reminder book, and it's the best GPS I've used. It's even a somewhat usable telephone. What the hell else could I want in a small pocket item??

I have no need for other gadgets. I was going to get an iPad for partial laptop replacement, but then iOS 7 happened. I have little faith in Apple's iOS future and I'm scared about Mac OS X's future once the GUI-ignorant Jony Ive gets at it, because it is my computing platform of choice (my only choice, at this point).

I could NOT possibly care any LESS about any so-called hypothetical iWatch.

 

Before blurting out things take a moment to ask yourself, "Is my opinion the only opinion?"

...but I have a funny feeling that your answer is always, "yes".

post #42 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by StruckPaper View Post
 

Nice try.

 

Thanks.

Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #43 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by ClemyNX View Post

That concept truly nailed how Apple products look like. It looks so shiny, rounded and soft. The screen won't be that size, but that may be the best concept I've ever seen. The bracelet is exactly like what I imagined for the iwatch myself. Just a big ring. What's simpler than that?

I agree, Clemy.

 

It looks so superior to the earlier square concept. That was too much like the Pebble. I hope Apple does indeed make something like this. They will show Nike and the rest how it's done. 

 

Also, this looks like the first real application of a "curved' screen. The curved TV's and LG cellphones look novel but only seem to make the screen curved b/c they can.

 

I know there is some benefit to viewing the curved TV's.

 

Best.

post #44 of 85

You probably want to stop reading a rumors site then.

post #45 of 85

that iwatch concept in this article looks fine. and it would be great if we could put iwatch on leg also! 

post #46 of 85

To get $17.5B in revenue at ASP of $299 they would have to sell about 58,500,000 units.

 

Current iPhone user base is about 300,000,000.

So basically 1 in 5 iPhone users would have to buy an iWatch to get to $17.5B revenue.

 

That's doable IMO, if its an awesome product.

 

$17.5B in revenue would add about $5B to the bottom line and about $5.50 EPS.

All things equal that will boost EPS 14%.

 

Decent quality watches cost $100-$200 a pop.  I think the public would be willing to pay an extra $99 to get a tech product + nice watch.

 

Funny thing is traditional watches have been on a decline for a decade.  I know many people who have not bought a nice watch in years.  Sounds like a good opportunity for Apple since there are literally hundreds of millions of people who don't have nice watches right now. 

 

Seems like all the plans are coming together:

 

Hiring of a design icon

Hiring of medical pros

solar

wireless charging

wifi slam

motion detection company

 

All to bring out the most amazing looking and advanced watch known to man.


Edited by sog35 - 2/4/14 at 10:52am
post #47 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

To get $17.5B in revenue at ASP of $299 they would have to sell about 58,500,000 units.

Current iPhone user base is about 300,000,000.
So basically 1 in 5 iPhone users would have to buy an iWatch to get to $17.5B revenue.

That's doable IMO, if its an awesome product.

http://youtu.be/uaU4V8JYdSs
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #48 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ireland View Post


http://youtu.be/uaU4V8JYdSs

 

why is it so hard to believe that 1 out of 5 iPhone users would be willing to buy a watch for $299?

 

Who thought 1 out of 3 iPad users are willing to pay $79 for a smart cover?

Or $59 for a leather iPhone case?

 

Tens of millions of watches in the $100-$300 range get sold every year.  Are you telling people are not willing to spend that amount for the latest tech that also looks awesome?

 

What does $299 get you today?  Beats head phones?  A 10 karet gold bracelet?

With the iWatch Apple will be blending technology with STYLE like never before.


Edited by sog35 - 2/4/14 at 11:43am
post #49 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

 

why is it so hard to believe that 1 out of 5 iPhone users would be willing to buy a watch for $299?

 

In one year at a cost as $299 with a limited feature set in this global economy?

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

Tens of millions of watches in the $100-$300 range get sold every year.

 

So now you've gone from saying $299 to between $100 and $300. Is this the same argument you are making or a new one?

Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #50 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ireland View Post
 

 

In one year at a cost as $299 with a limited feature set in this global economy?

 

 

So now you've gone from saying $299 to between $100 and $300. Is this the same argument you are making or a new one?

 

you are just here to argue.  Sorry I won't play your pathetic game.

 

Apple has sold over:

400,000,000 iPhones

200,000,000 iPads

350,000,000 iPods

 

and you dismiss the possiblity of them selling 50,000,000 iWatches in the first year of release?

A product that will be much cheaper than the iPad/iPhone/iPod during its opening release?

 

In 2012 the dying iPod sold 35,000,000 units at an ASP very close to $299.

And you don't think a brand new product could sell more than that?

post #51 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

 

you are just here to argue.  Sorry I won't play your pathetic game.

 

Apple has sold over:

400,000,000 iPhones

200,000,000 iPads

350,000,000 iPods

 

and you dismiss the possiblity of them selling 50,000,000 iWatches in the first year of release?

A product that will be much cheaper than the iPad/iPhone/iPod during its opening release?

 

Did I miss an Apple announcement?

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post #52 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post
 

 

Did I miss an Apple announcement?

 

if you want just facts you should stay off of a rumor site like this.

 

if you don't know we are speculating then good luck on the rest of your life.

post #53 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

 

if you want just facts you should stay off of a rumor site like this.

 

if you don't know we are speculating then good luck on the rest of your life.

 

Well, the other guy, Ireland, is speculating that you are wrong.

 

I think you are here just to insult people.

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post #54 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ireland View Post
 

In one year at a cost as $299 with a limited feature set in this global economy?

 

One only has to look at first year iPod, IPhone and iPad sales. They didn't reach even close to 58 million sales... total for all three.

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post #55 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post
 

 

One only has to look at first year iPod, IPhone and iPad sales. They didn't reach even close to 58 million sales... total for all three.

 

iPod started at $399

iPhone started at $799

iPad started at $499

 

I'm assuming the watch would be about $299

post #56 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post
 

 

Well, the other guy, Ireland, is speculating that you are wrong.

 

I think you are here just to insult people.

 

I'm not the one telling other people I'm on drugs (Ireland)

 

or being sarcastic.  I won't throw barbs at anyone first.  But if you test me I'll throw back.

post #57 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

 

iPod started at $399

iPhone started at $799

iPad started at $499

 

I'm assuming the watch would be about $299

 

Functionality will be just as important as price. It could be $99 and it wouldn't sell if people didn't see it as useful. People already have a phone that acts as a computer that fits in their pockets. An iWatch would have to incorporate functions beyond that which would: a) not cannibalize  iPhone sales and/or make enough money to not worry about that; b) have functions not available on the iPhone [and/or available on the phone but not on the watch... limited functionality], yet attractive enough for people to want it.

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post #58 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

I'm not the one telling other people I'm on drugs (Ireland)

or being sarcastic.  I won't throw barbs at anyone first.  But if you test me I'll throw back.

You know what I like about you, Sog?
I wanted dsadsa bit it was taken.
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I wanted dsadsa bit it was taken.
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post #59 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

Apple has sold over:
400,000,000 iPhones
200,000,000 iPads
350,000,000 iPods

and you dismiss the possiblity of them selling 50,000,000 iWatches in the first year of release?
A product that will be much cheaper than the iPad/iPhone/iPod during its opening release?

In 2012 the dying iPod sold 35,000,000 units at an ASP very close to $299.
And you don't think a brand new product could sell more than that?

Those other products didn't sell that many in their first year and have far higher utility than a watch. The iPhone was 6 million, the iPad was 15 million.

Despite the lower price, $200+ is expensive in its class of digital watches. Sony's smartwatch (the first smartwatch) was $99 and now $77:

http://www.amazon.com/Sony-SmartWatch-version-Android-Bluetooth/dp/B007VG6ZC8

That sold 200,000 in its first year globally:

http://asia.cnet.com/sony-sold-200000-units-of-the-first-smartwatch-62221692.htm

Samsung says 800k Galaxy Gears sold in its first 2 months last year but then we hear nothing. No reports about topping 1 million or 2 million. What they do is fill the retail channels first and if the units don't sell well, they are bundled with other products or they cut the prices:

http://gadgets.ndtv.com/others/news/samsung-slashes-galaxy-gear-smartwatch-price-to-rs-14990-476950
http://androidandme.com/2014/02/news/samsung-drops-price-of-galaxy-gear-by-120-in-india-might-cut-price-globally/

It can't be selling all that well on its own if they have to cut prices by about 1/3 within 4 months and release a follow-up product so soon after. They even refer to their own watch as 'bulky'.

The watch market is large but the vast majority of digital watches sold are cheap watches and the high value ones are Swiss watches. There's a market for high-end digital watches but it's a small market. I have no doubt that Apple could make a better watch than Samsung but Samsung currently makes the leading product in that market and 800k in 2 months exceeded their expectations. 50 million per year would be 10x that volume.

Medical applications and biometric data is interesting to average consumers for about 5 minutes. Who sits around wondering what their heart rate is or body temperature? If you feel fine, you don't think about it.

The bottom line is what problem will this watch solve? Telling the time doesn't matter any more. We get notifications already on the phone and most people don't get enough to warrant putting them on the wrist. It can't have a headphone jack, wifi isn't likely (so it has to be used alongside a phone anyway), it has no keyboard, putting cameras on it would be tricky too. The Gear can be made to run full Android apps but it's crazy because the screen is so small:

http://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2013/10/microscopic-android-how-to-get-real-apps-running-on-the-samsung-galaxy-gear/

What does the iWatch do and who is it for?
post #60 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marvin View Post


What does the iWatch do and who is it for?

That, sir, is the Final Jeopardy answer.

My proposition for such a device to be anything other than a hobby is that the device must extend the life of the user's iPhone by a significant margin which I believe can only be achieved by pushing notifications to the device so the user needn't peruse their device upon every notification.
post #61 of 85

Never mind a dang watch get at least a 4.5 inch iphone out their im not gonna wait another year for a bigger phone

post #62 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by rickmac View Post

Never mind a dang watch get at least a 4.5 inch iphone out their im not gonna wait another year for a bigger phone

I do not understand the obsession some have with a larger screen on a smartphone.

Since the beginning of recorded history advances in telecommunications have been marked by improvements in availability, portability and reliability. Advances in portability primarily resulted from miniaturization, microminiaturization and, most recently, nanotechnology.
post #63 of 85
Originally Posted by rickmac View Post
get at least a 4.5 inch iPhone out their im not gonna wait another year for a bigger phone

 

Okay. Go buy something from someone else, then.

Originally Posted by Marvin

The only thing more insecure than Android’s OS is its userbase.
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Originally Posted by Marvin

The only thing more insecure than Android’s OS is its userbase.
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post #64 of 85
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Originally Posted by MacBook Pro View Post


That, sir, is the Final Jeopardy answer.

My proposition for such a device to be anything other than a hobby is that the device must extend the life of the user's iPhone by a significant margin which I believe can only be achieved by pushing notifications to the device so the user needn't peruse their device upon every notification.

 

That's one very good application... we're up to $49 so far.   :)
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post #65 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post
 

 

Okay. Go buy something from someone else, then.

Thats how you loose market share. I hope that is not apples attitude

post #66 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacBook Pro View Post


I do not understand the obsession some have with a larger screen on a smartphone.

Since the beginning of recorded history advances in telecommunications have been marked by improvements in availability, portability and reliability. Advances in portability primarily resulted from miniaturization, microminiaturization and, most recently, nanotechnology.


i could care less about the phone its more of a portable personal computer and media consumption device give me a 5.5 or 6inch ipad with wifi or data

post #67 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by rickmac View Post


i could care less about the phone its more of a portable personal computer and media consumption device give me a 5.5 or 6inch ipad with wifi or data

Why not a 7.9" or 9.7" device then or for that matter a 60" screen?
post #68 of 85

i already have a mini and what part of portable didnt you understand 60 inch come on stop being a clown

post #69 of 85

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by MacBook Pro View Post


That, sir, is the Final Jeopardy answer.

My proposition for such a device to be anything other than a hobby is that the device must extend the life of the user's iPhone by a significant margin which I believe can only be achieved by pushing notifications to the device so the user needn't peruse their device upon every notification.

 

I'll take unimaginative analysts for $1000 Alex. Annoyingly I can't find a photo of him wearing a watch. It would have been funny.

post #70 of 85
Wow! For a concept iWatch, that's very sleek looking.
post #71 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacBook Pro View Post


That, sir, is the Final Jeopardy answer.

My proposition for such a device to be anything other than a hobby is that the device must extend the life of the user's iPhone by a significant margin which I believe can only be achieved by pushing notifications to the device so the user needn't peruse their device upon every notification.

It has to be a fitness watch. The fitness market is huge, and right now there aren't a lot of good ways to measure your workouts/activities outside of manually typing things into an app. If this watch were to passively gather information and help you improve workouts or even just general health for non-gym rats, this thing will take off. To differentiate from phones, it will have to be passively capturing the info and working seamlessly and quietly in the background to help out the user. I suppose it could also receive push notifications, which would be easy via Bluetooth, but the sales point will be for the hundreds of millions of people worldwide who just either exercise regularly or keep promising themselves to do so.

post #72 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post
 

 

One only has to look at first year iPod, IPhone and iPad sales. They didn't reach even close to 58 million sales... total for all three.

 

Assuming this even exists, another question is whether Apple can indeed make 58 million of them in 2014.

They would have to average approximately 2 a second for a year to make that many of them.

post #73 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by BestKeptSecret View Post
 

 

Assuming this even exists, another question is whether Apple can indeed make 58 million of them in 2014.

They would have to average approximately 2 a second for a year to make that many of them.

 

... and, yes, there is that.

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post #74 of 85

Given that Tim's expertise is the supply chain, I'm sure Apple would not manufacture 58 million of these in the first year even if they could. It does not make sense to do that on a new, untried product. It isn't a new iPhone model that would fly off the shelves.

 

For all we know it could turn out to be like the Apple TV, which remained a hobby for 3 generations before the real potential started being realised.

post #75 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by dysamoria View Post

I'm an iPhone owner and I have zero interest in a watch of any kind. Certainly not some expensive wearable electronic jewelry.

One of the primary functions of my iPhone is to be a clock and all the other things a watch does. Beyond that, it's a portable computer with robust Internet access, a calendar & reminder book, and it's the best GPS I've used. It's even a somewhat usable telephone. What the hell else could I want in a small pocket item??

I have no need for other gadgets. I was going to get an iPad for partial laptop replacement, but then iOS 7 happened. I have little faith in Apple's iOS future and I'm scared about Mac OS X's future once the GUI-ignorant Jony Ive gets at it, because it is my computing platform of choice (my only choice, at this point).

I could NOT possibly care any LESS about any so-called hypothetical iWatch.

Glad you got that off your chest.,.,feel better now? We are all here for you.

Apples stock drop is another mans stress. Wonder what the effect of starships will be? 1wink.gif
post #76 of 85

Good luck, won't sell like that morgan stanley, why would you want a iwatch when you can do everything on your iPhone, makes no sense , like going to taco bell its the same thing same taste but in a taco shell or burrito wrap . I would wear a classy traditional watch over a apple iwatch anyday, will go better with my outfit anyways . 

post #77 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by rickmac View Post
 

Never mind a dang watch get at least a 4.5 inch iphone out their im not gonna wait another year for a bigger phone

 

A 4.6" / 4.7" iPhone is coming this year. Patience.

Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #78 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by hmm View Post
 

I'll take unimaginative analysts for $1000 Alex.

 

Hehe.

Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #79 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by JosephFriedrich View Post

Wow! For a concept iWatch, that's very sleek looking.

 

The thing is design is not just about looking good, though. The design is essentially how it works and what the experience is like. And in that sense I don't think that concept is a great design. I reckon a working prototype of that design would prove quite a sub-par user-experience.

Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #80 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by BestKeptSecret View Post
 

For all we know it could turn out to be like the Apple TV, which remained a hobby for 3 generations before the real potential started being realised.

 

I doubt they would treat a watch as they did that product.

Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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