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Tablets expected to make up 75% of the mobile computing market by 2017

post #1 of 27
Thread Starter 
Traditional notebook PCs are expected to be outsold by tablets three-to-one within the next three years, less than a decade after Apple kicked off the post-PC revolution with the iPad.

NPD Data


The forecast comes in a Thursday report from market research firm NPD DisplaySearch, which predicts that businesses and consumers will be snapping up more than 450 million tablets per year by 2017.

Fueling the shift, NPD expects the average selling price of tablets to fall slightly -- from $311 in 2014 to $296 in 2017 -- as economies of scale make display production less costly and manufacturers move to smaller tablet sizes. Traditional PC makers will be forced to follow the trend, NPD believes, leading to even more savings for consumers thanks to increased competition.

According to NPD senior analyst Richard Shim, "momentum for the tablet PC market is in full swing as they have become the dominant mobile PC form factor. Competition is expected to increase as traditional notebook PC brands, including Lenovo, HP, and Dell update their product portfolios to emphasize tablet PCs."

Much of the growth is expected to be driven by emerging markets, which NPD predicts will account for more than 60 percent of mobile PC shipments by 2017. Those regions overwhelmingly prefer the tablet form factor already -- traditional notebooks book just 30 percent of sales, with tablets taking the remainder.

If true, the shift would be good news for Apple. When counting tablets, the Cupertino, Calif.-based company already takes home nearly 20 percent of the mobile computing market.
post #2 of 27
But many predictions I have seen say that everyone who wants an iPad will soon have one and then Apple will be doomed. Once tablets (the iPad specifically) are perfected (very soon I suspect) how often will one have to upgrade his iPad? Apple seems to not orphan its equipment like the Windows of yore and Android of now. Android updating is not so obviously going to be a problem in sales as the Android OS you get is the OS you get to keep. Want a new Android OS; toss device to back of sock draw and purchase new.
And how well do droid tablets stand the wear of time? Do they just suddenly blank out to the eternal hell that is special to droids? Or are they more like the Energiser Bunny and just keep banging away on that drum.

What a complicated world predicting has become.
(2nd time to post this puppy)
Edited by mhikl - 2/6/14 at 11:18am

When I find time to rewrite the laws of Physics, there'll Finally be some changes made round here!

I am not crazy! Three out of five court appointed psychiatrists said so.

Reply

When I find time to rewrite the laws of Physics, there'll Finally be some changes made round here!

I am not crazy! Three out of five court appointed psychiatrists said so.

Reply
post #3 of 27

This development is expected. Jobs and company were visionaries to see the coming post-PC era and steer Apple towards taking full advantage of it. 

 

I actually think that there will be a post post-PC era very soon where wearable technologies will more important than tablets or mobile phones. This is why I believe Apple may want to release an iWatch like device and Google is working on Google Glass.

post #4 of 27
It's all those mysterious "white box" tablets that no one ever sees although I did spot Big Foot with one.

Prediction the future in tech is a fool's errand.
post #5 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

According to NPD senior analyst Richard Shim, "momentum for the tablet PC market is in full swing as they have become the dominant mobile PC form factor. Competition is expected to increase as traditional notebook PC brands, including Lenovo, HP, and Dell update their product portfolios to emphasize tablet PCs."

I remember in January 2010, when Steve Jobs announced the iPad. Two things happened: (1) people snickered at the name, and (2) haters were saying nobody was buying tablets and that the iPad would be "Steve's Newton".

VINDICATION OF A VISIONARY.

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
Reply

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
Reply
post #6 of 27

And shortly after, Apple will discontinue the laptop as a concept. Just like I’ve been saying for years.

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already f*ed.

 

Reply

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already f*ed.

 

Reply
post #7 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by Suddenly Newton View Post


I remember in January 2010, when Steve Jobs announced the iPad. Two things happened: (1) people snickered at the name, and (2) haters were saying nobody was buying tablets and that the iPad would be "Steve's Newton".

VINDICATION OF A VISIONARY.

Interesting you should say that, Newton.

 

I just recently read "Dogfight" (Good read.) about Google and Apple and it said SJ was amazed at introduction the muted response of the iPad. People, indeed, just did not get it. I re-watched the keynote and it there were pretty much no oohs and ahs like there was with the iPhone. Unbelievable. It is surely a magical device.

 

The iPad Air and iPad Retina are the best tablets and the Apple eco-system, from mobile to OSX is the best, bar none! :)  

 

Best.

post #8 of 27

This could be very bad news for Apple in the long run. With other manufacturers getting better at producing these things with better and better specifications and more operating systems getting better, it won't be long until there are other brands that are good enough. They won't be selling at the premium prices Apple demands. There is no doubt that Apple will improve their software when needed to remain a leader, but remember that they don't always lead. Remember how long it took for them to add copy and paste to iOS?

 

An Android tablet in 2017, or one running Firefox OS; Ubuntu for tablets, or even Web OS (making a comeback) will certainly have numerous features that are also on an iOS device. Those products will be grabbing the majority of sales. If Apple can't make a tablet that totally blows them out of the water as the original iPad did, then Apple won't be able to earn the same profits they are earning now with tablets.

post #9 of 27
Originally Posted by Smallwheels View Post
With other manufacturers getting better at producing these things with better and better specifications and more operating systems getting better, it won't be long until there are other brands that are good enough.

 

Windows has had 30 years and it’s still not good enough.

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already f*ed.

 

Reply

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already f*ed.

 

Reply
post #10 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post
 

 

Windows has had 30 years and it’s still not good enough.


They don't count. They can only do good servers. Their consumer products have been crap since..... Well I can't say how long because I started with XP. I'm sure people who used their operating systems before that would be able to give a better opinion than I.

 

It's funny. I don't even consider Microsux in any of my thoughts of future computing. They are irrelevant in my mind. They just don't figure into anything in the future.

post #11 of 27

"Told you so" says Steve Jobs.

post #12 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smallwheels View Post
 

This could be very bad news for Apple in the long run. With other manufacturers getting better at producing these things with better and better specifications and more operating systems getting better, it won't be long until there are other brands that are good enough. They won't be selling at the premium prices Apple demands. There is no doubt that Apple will improve their software when needed to remain a leader, but remember that they don't always lead. Remember how long it took for them to add copy and paste to iOS?

 

An Android tablet in 2017, or one running Firefox OS; Ubuntu for tablets, or even Web OS (making a comeback) will certainly have numerous features that are also on an iOS device. Those products will be grabbing the majority of sales. If Apple can't make a tablet that totally blows them out of the water as the original iPad did, then Apple won't be able to earn the same profits they are earning now with tablets.

 

Android will suffer the same fate as MS. It's hard coded into the business model. Watch as it fractures, gets more riddled with bugs, security issues etc as they all fight for control. It's just new, they had a chance to start afresh, that's all.

post #13 of 27

Look at the last category on the graph. It says Ultra-slim PC shipments. That number is going up. Are these things like the Mac Mini? ASUS has been making tiny XP machines for a while. HP just started selling a very small i7 equipped box that is perhaps as small as the Mini. It is for business customers only.

 

We've heard of Chromebooks for a while. Google also puts Chrome OS into desktop machines called Chromeboxes. ASUS will be offering one in March for only $179. It has the Celeron Haswell chip that is in the popular Acer C720 Chromebook. The NUC boxes from Intel are also tiny machines that are catching on as HTPCs. To make those work one must buy RAM and drives separately as well as supplying an OS. This graphs shows that the desktop machine is not totally dead and a new breed of desktop machine is growing in popularity.

post #14 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smallwheels View Post

. This graphs shows that the desktop machine is not totally dead and a new breed of desktop machine is growing in popularity.

No. It does not
post #15 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smallwheels View Post

 

An Android tablet in 2017, or one running Firefox OS; Ubuntu for tablets, or even Web OS (making a comeback) will certainly have numerous features that are also on an iOS device. 

Forget something? Windows tablets.

post #16 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smallwheels View Post
 


It's funny. I don't even consider Microsux in any of my thoughts of future computing. They are irrelevant in my mind. They just don't figure into anything in the future.

I hope you didn't mean this because they have a new CEO.

post #17 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smallwheels View Post
 

 Remember how long it took for them to add copy and paste to iOS?

 

 

 

um... remember when the first windows 7 phone did not have copy and paste?  before you can predict the future- remember the past.

and knowing how annoyed my android friends are that their device will not get kit-kat, predicting the next 6 months is more difficult than we might think.

post #18 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smallwheels View Post
 


They don't count. They can only do good servers. Their consumer products have been crap since..... Well I can't say how long because I started with XP. I'm sure people who used their operating systems before that would be able to give a better opinion than I.

Microsoft currently makes amazing input hardware in their Sculpt Ergonomic Desktop. Windows currently powers 90.60% of laptops and desktops. The Xbox One sold over a million units in the first 24 hours. Their cloud service rivals that of Amazon. Skype currently has over 50 million users. Xbox music lets anyone with a Microsoft account stream any song under 10 minutes for free. And anyone who says the Surface is crap has obviously never used one.

 

Oh, and there's Steve Gleason http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JObFlEvc-Eg

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Smallwheels View Post

 

It's funny. I don't even consider Microsux in any of my thoughts of future computing. They are irrelevant in my mind. They just don't figure into anything in the future.

Keep telling yourself that. Microsoft has been around for 39 years and they're still relevant. And you forget that Windows Embedded is in many real-time devices and POS devices like cash registers. When Microsoft is gone, who's going to take up that job? Apple? Hardly.


Edited by Emes - 2/6/14 at 5:43pm
post #19 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by Emes View Post
 

Microsoft currently makes amazing input hardware in their Sculpt Ergonomic Desktop. Windows currently powers 90.60% of laptops and desktops. The Xbox One sold over a million units in the first 24 hours. Their cloud service rivals that of Amazon. And anyone who says the Surface is crap has obviously never used one.

 

i had the misfortune of using the the first surface for 8 months at work.  it was dreadful.  it was slow, the battery was weedy, the orientation change was very slow (landscape to portrait), and it was heavy.  using internet explorer was no fun either- everything was so small, the buttons and boxes of the window were so small and i had to just Alt+f4 my way out of everything.  

I even went to the MS store to get some help and tricks to make it easier since the business made us use the surface.  it never got easier, we just learned to put up with it.  

post #20 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by revenant View Post
 

i had the misfortune of using the the first surface for 8 months at work.  it was dreadful.  it was slow, the battery was weedy, the orientation change was very slow (landscape to portrait), and it was heavy.  using internet explorer was no fun either- everything was so small, the buttons and boxes of the window were so small and i had to just Alt+f4 my way out of everything.  

I even went to the MS store to get some help and tricks to make it easier since the business made us use the surface.  it never got easier, we just learned to put up with it.  


They made a new one. Thinner, faster, lighter, cheaper.

 

You must have been using the original Surface Pro, because I can't see how 1.5 pounds is heavy.

post #21 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by Emes View Post
 


They made a new one. Thinner, faster, lighter, cheaper.

 

You must have been using the original Surface Pro, because I can't see how 1.5 pounds is heavy.

right, you never specified, i am just saying i used one extensively.  

 

and come on, people complain about the iPad being heavy at 1.3 pounds.

post #22 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by revenant View Post
 

right, you never specified, i am just saying i used one extensively.  

 

and come on, people complain about the iPad being heavy at 1.3 pounds.


Ah, my mistake.

 

Maybe I just don't notice after having my 5 pound laptop for 4 years :lol:

post #23 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smallwheels View Post

This could be very bad news for Apple in the long run. With other manufacturers getting better at producing these things with better and better specifications and more operating systems getting better, it won't be long until there are other brands that are good enough. They won't be selling at the premium prices Apple demands. There is no doubt that Apple will improve their software when needed to remain a leader, but remember that they don't always lead. Remember how long it took for them to add copy and paste to iOS?

An Android tablet in 2017, or one running Firefox OS; Ubuntu for tablets, or even Web OS (making a comeback) will certainly have numerous features that are also on an iOS device. Those products will be grabbing the majority of sales. If Apple can't make a tablet that totally blows them out of the water as the original iPad did, then Apple won't be able to earn the same profits they are earning now with tablets.

Why do you think Apple won't dramatically improve the iPad by 2017 and think the others will magically advance in 3 years?
post #24 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by Emes View Post
 

Keep telling yourself that. Microsoft has been around for 39 years and they're still relevant. And you forget that Windows Embedded is in many real-time devices and POS devices like cash registers. When Microsoft is gone, who's going to take up that job? Apple? Hardly.

I don't care how long Microsux has been around. They are irrelevant to me. They make junky clunky consumer software and that is that.

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post


Why do you think Apple won't dramatically improve the iPad by 2017 and think the others will magically advance in 3 years?

I do believe Apple will continue to improve their software. They almost always do a good job. What I'm getting at is that other manufacturers are also making great things now. In the near future there will be tablets that do amazing things for much less than the price of a Apple device.

 

As an example in computing I really don't need a  powerful machine. The most taxing thing I do is edit basic movies and make presentations. Any machine can do text documents well with very little power. I sometimes save photos and do minor editing to them. The second most taxing thing I do is watch movies whether it is from Netflix or another internet source. I still have a CD/DVD drive in my machines and use them.

 

Tablets can do everything I do with my Mac Book and desktop machine except play DVDs. This is today. Tablets in 2017 will have more horsepower with better screens and their software will be even better. The thing is, what more will people need their tablets to do by then? What great features will Apple invent that make their expensive tablets so much better that most people will want them? Right now the Nexus 7 has an awesome screen and a good interface. To make it better all it needs is an SD card slot and a faster processor. Some might think adding more memory would be better. To me the SD card handles that.

 

The tablets of 2017 made by others such as Asus, Lenovo, and even Samsung, will be feature rich. I don't think Apple will be so much better by then that people will say "I want to buy an Apple for $100 more than the others for the same features." That is why I think the expanding tablet market will be a problem for Apple until they change their margins.

post #25 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by Emes View Post
 

 

Keep telling yourself that. Microsoft has been around for 39 years and they're still relevant. And you forget that Windows Embedded is in many real-time devices and POS devices like cash registers. When Microsoft is gone, who's going to take up that job? Apple? Hardly.

 

POS systems (as you know them) won't even exist in the future! Think forward. 

Sorry, but Microsoft is dead. They have zero vision, because of this, they will play no significant part in the future of computing.

post #26 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by monstrosity View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by Emes View Post
 

 

Keep telling yourself that. Microsoft has been around for 39 years and they're still relevant. And you forget that Windows Embedded is in many real-time devices and POS devices like cash registers. When Microsoft is gone, who's going to take up that job? Apple? Hardly.

 

POS systems (as you know them) won't even exist in the future! Think forward. 

Sorry, but Microsoft is dead. They have zero vision, because of this, they will play no significant part in the future of computing.

is that the next six months, year, five years, ten years or longer? Either way thats a statement that has no basis in observable facts and is probably just an over active wish list based on prejudice. MS will survive for a long time. What it will look like is a different matter. Same with Apple, if ten years ago you had said Apple would become generate a majority of its income from phones and services people would have saud your insane. The future is unknown. One great idea or implementation of that idea and bam everything can change.
post #27 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smallwheels View Post

I don't care how long Microsux has been around. They are irrelevant to me. They make junky clunky consumer software and that is that.

I do believe Apple will continue to improve their software. They almost always do a good job. What I'm getting at is that other manufacturers are also making great things now. In the near future there will be tablets that do amazing things for much less than the price of a Apple device.

As an example in computing I really don't need a  powerful machine. The most taxing thing I do is edit basic movies and make presentations. Any machine can do text documents well with very little power. I sometimes save photos and do minor editing to them. The second most taxing thing I do is watch movies whether it is from Netflix or another internet source. I still have a CD/DVD drive in my machines and use them.

Tablets can do everything I do with my Mac Book and desktop machine except play DVDs. This is today. Tablets in 2017 will have more horsepower with better screens and their software will be even better. The thing is, what more will people need their tablets to do by then? What great features will Apple invent that make their expensive tablets so much better that most people will want them? Right now the Nexus 7 has an awesome screen and a good interface. To make it better all it needs is an SD card slot and a faster processor. Some might think adding more memory would be better. To me the SD card handles that.

The tablets of 2017 made by others such as Asus, Lenovo, and even Samsung, will be feature rich. I don't think Apple will be so much better by then that people will say "I want to buy an Apple for $100 more than the others for the same features." That is why I think the expanding tablet market will be a problem for Apple until they change their margins.

Well Apple is doing that now, trouncing all the others. It will continue to improve the iPad with useful tech. Sooner it later, the others will need to make a profit.
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