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ISS recommends against Icahn stock buyback strategy, sides with Apple board - Page 2

post #41 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

Regular investors can buy the stocks he buys or invest in his company.

Break news: Icahn has dropped his proposal.  He is happy and satisfied with the $14B Apple has recently bought back and won't fight the board over the his $50B proposal.

Happy and satisfied would be overstating it:
http://www.shareholderssquaretable.com/our-letter-to-apple-shareholders/
Edited by Gatorguy - 2/10/14 at 7:47am
melior diabolus quem scies
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melior diabolus quem scies
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post #42 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post
 
 
You bring this up a lot, and are clearly a fan of Icahn.

Can you please point to a credible, audited set of data that has been filed with some regulatory authority -- under the pain major penalties for lying -- that backs up this claim?

 

Unless the guy can provide what you ask for, it is OK for us to believe anything we want about iCon!

post #43 of 72
So he withdrew but we still don't know anything right? All hail Carl the genius...

This is where the yeah but 'Carl knows what's best' post come out.
post #44 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

You bring this up a lot, and are clearly a fan of Icahn.


Can you please point to a credible, audited set of data that has been filed with some regulatory authority -- under the pain major penalties for lying -- that backs up this claim?

Credible source?  Ok.

I give you Ichan Enterprises LP - which is publicly traded and audited by the SEC.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=IEP+Historical+Prices

On Jan 2004 it was $16.
On Dec 2013 it was $117.
Thats a 631% return in 10 years.
22% annualized return in 10 years.
The man kicks azz in the stock market. PERIOD.

Ah, I thought you might bring that up. Spurious for a number of reasons. I'll reply in detail later today (unfortunately, I am caught up with all sorts of throughout today, so I will get to it late afternoon). Promise.
post #45 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post


One of the richest men in the world, a self made billionaire.
He is averaging an annualized return over 20% the last 10 years.
Simply one of the best in the biz. Period.

 

There is such a fundamental flaw in that reasoning. An investor's direct interest is in maximizing the share value. Running a company in the optimum way does not equate directly to share value, which is defined by people guessing what the share value should be. To run a company based on an investor's direct interest is totally flawed and a terrible practice.

 

Some of us choose to invest in companies that are optimally run, but don't assume that the immediate share value represents the true value. We believe that over the long term, the share value will represent the true value. 

post #46 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by Retrogusto View Post
 

He has bought more than $3.5 billion dollars' worth of shares in the company, so he owns a decent chunk of it. A bit less than 1%, but if my math and data are right, that's still a lot more than, say, Tim Cook (a little over $45 million). Since he is also widely regarded as a shrewd investor, his advice regarding how Apple should invest its (and partly "his") money carries some weight.

 

I agree it carries weight. It makes many of us want to have Apple do the opposite. Why? Because Icahn wants Apple to do whatever maximizes his share value. I want Apple to do what's best to create and sell great products. Why? Because when they do this it ensures the long term maximization of the share value. Icahn misses a step in the middle. He's never been interested in that step. That's why he's nothing more than leech. 

post #47 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

 

Regular investors can buy the stocks he buys or invest in his company.

 

Break news: Icahn has dropped his proposal.  He is happy and satisfied with the $14B Apple has recently bought back and won't fight the board over the his $50B proposal.

 

 

You mean Icahn is happy Apple didn't allocate any more money to date for a stock buy back? Apple merely bought more stock back it already intended to buy back when it had an opportunity? Right.  Perhaps, it is because two of APple's long term institutional investors did not back Icahn. 

post #48 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBell View Post
 

 

 

You mean Icahn is happy Apple didn't allocate any more money to date for a stock buy back? Apple merely bought more stock back it already intended to buy back when it had an opportunity? Right.  Perhaps, it is because two of APple's long term institutional investors did not back Icahn. 

 

Watch and learn.

 

Apple will increase the total buyback to over $60B in March or April.

 

Icahn got EXACTLY what he wanted.

post #49 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBell View Post
 

 

 

I never said he doesn't know the stock market, and I don't keep throwing out percentages of returns as if that somehow means something to long term Apple investors. If percentages impress you though, I put all my investments in Apple right out of college in Apple at about $15 a share. The stock split twice and is now trading at over $500 dollars a share. Perhaps, you should be listening to me as my percentage of success outweighs Icahn's. I also didn't have to work as hard for my return as Icahn. My only regret is I did not have more funds at the time to sink into Apple. 

 

I know facts bore you, but go read up on TWA. Carl bankrupted the airlines by saddling it with over 450 million in debt and stripping it of its most valuable assets. 

 

you will get respect when your clients have made BILLIONS.

 

Icahn has done that and have not.  You can talk all you want that you bought Apple at $15 but it does not matter because you have no proof.  Ichan files with the SEC every quarter.  Let the pro's do their job.  You remind me of those losers who call sports talk radio shows to tell coaches how to run their teams.  Please.

post #50 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by focher View Post
 

I agree it carries weight. It makes many of us want to have Apple do the opposite. Why? Because Icahn wants Apple to do whatever maximizes his share value. I want Apple to do what's best to create and sell great products. Why? Because when they do this it ensures the long term maximization of the share value. Icahn misses a step in the middle. He's never been interested in that step. That's why he's nothing more than leech. 

 

Yes,  Ichan ownership of Netflix really destroyed the company.  Oh wait.....

post #51 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by SudoNym View Post

Unless the guy can provide what you ask for, it is OK for us to believe anything we want about iCon!
Not a very well chosen slur.

ICon-SteveJobs_Cover.jpg

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post #52 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

 

Credible source?  Ok.

 

I give you Ichan Enterprises LP - which is publicly traded and audited by the SEC.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=IEP+Historical+Prices

 

On Jan 2004 it was $16.

On Dec 2013 it was $117.

Thats a 631% return in 10 years.

22% annualized return in 10 years.

The man kicks azz in the stock market. PERIOD.

Taken by itself, that sure does sound impressive. But the problem is, it just cherry-picks  a random starting point that is tilted in Icahn’s favor. Moreover, it provides no benchmark.

 

Here’s a comparison of IEP to AAPL, for various periods (all data from Yahoo!Finance for IEP v. AAPL):

 

Return since Jan 2001:

IEP +1027%

AAPL +5500%

 

10-year return:

IEP +564%

AAPL +4500%

 

7-year return:

IEP –1.15%

AAPL: +510%

 

5-year return:

IEP +224%

AAPL +425%

 

Which stock would you have rather owned? Indeed, who should be giving advice to whom? IEP to AAPL or the other way around?

 

In fact, if you were unlucky enough to buy IEP at the end of 2006, you paid ~$130 for the stock. It’s worth $109 today. Over the next couple of years years (from 2006), his stock fell from $135 to ~$35 and noodled around that level until end-2012. (I am surprised that someone didn’t kick him out of his Wall Street job during that period). It’s only since the first quarter of 2013 that his stock started to zoom up. He got lucky with a couple of his holdings.

 

The trouble with you guys is you confuse luck with skill.

post #53 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

 

Watch and learn.

 

Apple will increase the total buyback to over $60B in March or April.

 

Icahn got EXACTLY what he wanted.

 

I don't think it is because of him...it's regardless of him.

post #54 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

 

you will get respect when your clients have made BILLIONS.

 

Icahn has done that and have not.  You can talk all you want that you bought Apple at $15 but it does not matter because you have no proof.  Ichan files with the SEC every quarter.  Let the pro's do their job.  You remind me of those losers who call sports talk radio shows to tell coaches how to run their teams.  Please.

Um… compared to Apple, his performance is pathetic (see post #52 above).

 

Someone like him has no business giving advice to Apple. (Looks like he finally realized that, and declared a victory by making a virtue out of a necessity).

post #55 of 72
And
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

Watch and learn.

Apple will increase the total buyback to over $60B in March or April.

Icahn got EXACTLY what he wanted.
And then he suddenly shows all his cards and the ones of his friends. I speculate it is more than 1%. I somehow get the feeling that he is just a tool for those stockplayers who try to get Apple down. The less shares out there, the easier to manipulate the price, or gain a majority. Not being an investor I would be relieved if Apple would retract from public trading their shares. That would be long term strategy. Not that I know much of all this.
post #56 of 72

I don't have any idea what Icahn is up to, but it can't be for anything other than his own good. It's just plain wrong to go into debt just so one Billionaire can reap the short term benefits. Make no mistake about it, that's exactly what he has been proposing that Apple do.  Be like our own country and bury us in debt, just so a few people can get richer quicker. Apple needs to begin to reinvest profits in themselves. By first of all increasing R&D spending that Steve Jobs had taken them into all time lows.

 

Sure you can get along for a time without re-investing profits in your own future with increased (or in Steve's case killing it all together in early 2000) spending in those things like CAPeX and R&D that can work to guarantee a better future w/o simply salting it away in off shore long term securities that in many cases can't be even spent for up to 25yrs. But that certainly doesn't mean that a company should simply go into debt, just to buy back the company to make certain share holders happier and richer either!   

post #57 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Taken by itself, that sure does sound impressive. But the problem is, it just cherry-picks  a random starting point that is tilted in Icahn’s favor. Moreover, it provides no benchmark.

Here’s a comparison of IEP to AAPL, for various periods (all data from Yahoo!Finance for IEP v. AAPL):

Return since Jan 2001:
IEP +1027%
AAPL +5500%

10-year return:
IEP +564%
AAPL +4500%

7-year return:
IEP –1.15%
AAPL: +510%

5-year return:
IEP +224%
AAPL +425%

Which stock would you have rather owned? Indeed, who should be giving advice to whom? IEP to AAPL or the other way around?

In fact, if you were unlucky enough to buy IEP at the end of 2006, you paid ~$130 for the stock. It’s worth $109 today. Over the next couple of years years (from 2006), his stock fell from $135 to ~$35 and noodled around that level until end-2012. (I am surprised that someone didn’t kick him out of his Wall Street job during that period). It’s only since the first quarter of 2013 that his stock started to zoom up. He got lucky with a couple of his holdings.

The trouble with you guys is you confuse luck with skill.

10 years is a standard investment window, it's not cherry picking.

Some thing called the Great Recession happened in 2006-2008, of course his shares were down. Almost the whole market was down.

Why can't you admit Icahn is a great investor? The man is worth over $20,000,000,000, all from investment activities.
post #58 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by iCoolio View Post

I don't have any idea what Icahn is up to, but it can't be for anything other than his own good. It's just plain wrong to go into debt just so one Billionaire can reap the short term benefits. Make no mistake about it, that's exactly what he has been proposing that Apple do.  Be like our own country and bury us in debt, just so a few people can get richer quicker. Apple needs to begin to reinvest profits in themselves. By first of all increasing R&D spending that Steve Jobs had taken them into all time lows.

Sure you can get along for a time without re-investing profits in your own future with increased (or in Steve's case killing it all together in early 2000) spending in those things like CAPeX and R&D that can work to guarantee a better future w/o simply salting it away in off shore long term securities that in many cases can't be even spent for up to 25yrs. But that certainly doesn't mean that a company should simply go into debt, just to buy back the company to make certain share holders happier and richer either!   

Apple already has $16B in debt BEFORE Ichans proposal.
What Ichan was suggesting wasn't anything Apple hasn't already done.
All Ichan wanted was Apple to accelerate the buy back and that is exactly what Cook did by buying back $14B in two weeks.
That's why Ichan dropped his proposal, because Cook is already doing it.

The last 9 months Apple has bought back $40B.
Ichans proposal was $50B in 12 months.
Doing the math you can see Apple is at a pace Ichan likes.

Ichan is doing his Emperor Palpatine empression:
The Emperor: Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen.
post #59 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Um… compared to Apple, his performance is pathetic (see post #52 above).

Someone like him has no business giving advice to Apple. (Looks like he finally realized that, and declared a victory by making a virtue out of a necessity).

Where in his letter is Ichan declaring victory?

Stop spreading BS.
post #60 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by cykz View Post

And
And then he suddenly shows all his cards and the ones of his friends. I speculate it is more than 1%. I somehow get the feeling that he is just a tool for those stockplayers who try to get Apple down. The less shares out there, the easier to manipulate the price, or gain a majority. Not being an investor I would be relieved if Apple would retract from public trading their shares. That would be long term strategy. Not that I know much of all this.

"what you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul."

Really? You seriously think Ichan would use 25% of his wealth on stock with a plan to tank the price!
post #61 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post


10 years is a standard investment window, it's not cherry picking.

Some thing called the Great Recession happened in 2006-2008, of course his shares were down. Almost the whole market was down.

Why can't you admit Icahn is a great investor? The man is worth over $20,000,000,000, all from investment activities.

Hey, look, you're the one strutting about these boards as though you're some type of finance guru, berating people for their stupidity and their ignorance of finance (what me to cut and paste quotes?).

First, if you're a serious investor, you would examine prices and returns every which way. Not just some '10-year' number.

Second, you would want to benchmark it -- you'd want to assess him on the excess returns he earned relative to that benchmark, after adjusting for the risks in his portfolio. (He seems to have a higher beta portfolio, relative to the market; I am sure you know what that means).

Third, if we use Apple as the benchmark -- a company he's been after these past few months -- his owns performance sucks (to put it mildly). That kind of performance puts him in no place to be doling out advice to Apple. He should go look in the mirror.

Fourth, I have great admiration for the wealth he's created for himself and his investors. Good for him. But, activism is something else. There is simply no evidence that he's a great activist. In fact, there's some contrary evidence (e.g., destroying companies in the process). There's a huge difference between being an investor and being an activist. He should butt out of trying to oversee the management of one of the most successful companies in recent history. If he has a problem with how it's being managed, he should sell and move on. He has no clue about what Tim Cook and his team are up to, and stuff like financial engineering on the right hand side of the balance sheet and loading up the company with debt are potentially dangerous, distracting moves.

Fifth, he has presented utterly bogus numbers -- or often no numbers at all -- to justify his case for a $150B buyback. I've asked you guys to make the argument for him, instead of swallowing his assertions, and you have not.

Finally, he (and many of his acolytes) comes through as an arrogant know-it-all. No one likes that. Perhaps if he was nicer about it, he'd actually be more persuasive and create greater wealth for his investors.
post #62 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post


Where in his letter is Ichan declaring victory?

Stop spreading BS.

What do you call this?

"As Tim Cook describes them, these recent actions taken by the company to repurchase shares have been both "opportunistic" and "aggressive" and we are supportive. In light of these actions, and ISS's recommendation, we see no reason to persist with our non-binding proposal, especially when the company is already so close to fulfilling our requested repurchase target."
post #63 of 72

dp

post #64 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


What do you call this?

"As Tim Cook describes them, these recent actions taken by the company to repurchase shares have been both "opportunistic" and "aggressive" and we are supportive. In light of these actions, and ISS's recommendation, we see no reason to persist with our non-binding proposal, especially when the company is already so close to fulfilling our requested repurchase target."

 

Declaring victory?  I don't see it.  He's just recognizing that Cook is being aggressive with the buyback and there was no reason to push him to be more aggressive.  I don't see a single word of Icahn taking credit or claiming victory.

 

Stop the BS.

post #65 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


Hey, look, you're the one strutting about these boards as though you're some type of finance guru, berating people for their stupidity and their ignorance of finance (what me to cut and paste quotes?).

First, if you're a serious investor, you would examine prices and returns every which way. Not just some '10-year' number.

Second, you would want to benchmark it -- you'd want to assess him on the excess returns he earned relative to that benchmark, after adjusting for the risks in his portfolio. (He seems to have a higher beta portfolio, relative to the market; I am sure you know what that means).

Third, if we use Apple as the benchmark -- a company he's been after these past few months -- his owns performance sucks (to put it mildly). That kind of performance puts him in no place to be doling out advice to Apple. He should go look in the mirror.

Fourth, I have great admiration for the wealth he's created for himself and his investors. Good for him. But, activism is something else. There is simply no evidence that he's a great activist. In fact, there's some contrary evidence (e.g., destroying companies in the process). There's a huge difference between being an investor and being an activist. He should butt out of trying to oversee the management of one of the most successful companies in recent history. If he has a problem with how it's being managed, he should sell and move on. He has no clue about what Tim Cook and his team are up to, and stuff like financial engineering on the right hand side of the balance sheet and loading up the company with debt are potentially dangerous, distracting moves.

Fifth, he has presented utterly bogus numbers -- or often no numbers at all -- to justify his case for a $150B buyback. I've asked you guys to make the argument for him, instead of swallowing his assertions, and you have not.

Finally, he (and many of his acolytes) comes through as an arrogant know-it-all. No one likes that. Perhaps if he was nicer about it, he'd actually be more persuasive and create greater wealth for his investors.

 

utter BS.

 

Like I said 1, 5, and 10 years are standard investment windows.  Second you are the one who is cherry picking.  Talking about starting from 2006........which of course is in line with something called the GREAT RECESSION.

 

I will put people in their place for spewing out BS.  Some one whos says all buybacks are stupid or a company should never take on debt.  Those kind of statements are ignorant and dangerous.  They people need to be taken to the woodshed and held accountable for their ignorance.  If they don't understand finance they need to shutup and learn.

 

Third Icahn has been crushing the markets broad index's looking at 1, 5, and 10 year windows.  I'm not sure about 2.3332544 years or 3.331548454 years. 

 

Fourth Apple is NOT a good benchmark.  They were in HYPERGROWTH and are not a normal company.  There are very few companies in the history of man that can compare to Apples growth from 90's to mid 2013.  Give it a rest.  Everyone knows Apple has grew massively.  But the same people know that there was massive risk in investing in Apple in the 90's and up to 2008.  Risk vs Reward. 

 

Fifth tell me what company Ichan 'destroyed' in the last 10 years?  His style has changed.  Has he hurt Netflix? Herbalife? Apple?  Stop bring up how he bankrupted some airline in the 80's.  We all know the airlines were screwed up because of labor problems, fuel cost, ect.  They were all going down anyway.  Its not Ichan's fault that the Board allowed him to take over the company and do what he pleased.

 

Sixth Icahn exudes CONFIDENCE and SWAG.  Something that Tim Cook has been lacking until recently.  If you are not CONFIDENT about your company why would investors be?  And Jobs wasn't a know it all?  Seriously!  What a f'ing double standard.

post #66 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

 

utter BS.

 

Like I said 1, 5, and 10 years are standard investment windows.  Second you are the one who is cherry picking.  Talking about starting from 2006........which of course is in line with something called the GREAT RECESSION.

 

I will put people in their place for spewing out BS.  Some one whos says all buybacks are stupid or a company should never take on debt.  Those kind of statements are ignorant and dangerous.  They people need to be taken to the woodshed and held accountable for their ignorance.  If they don't understand finance they need to shutup and learn.

 

Third Icahn has been crushing the markets broad index's looking at 1, 5, and 10 year windows.  I'm not sure about 2.3332544 years or 3.331548454 years. 

 

Fourth Apple is NOT a good benchmark.  They were in HYPERGROWTH and are not a normal company.  There are very few companies in the history of man that can compare to Apples growth from 90's to mid 2013.  Give it a rest.  Everyone knows Apple has grew massively.  But the same people know that there was massive risk in investing in Apple in the 90's and up to 2008.  Risk vs Reward. 

 

Fifth tell me what company Ichan 'destroyed' in the last 10 years?  His style has changed.  Has he hurt Netflix? Herbalife? Apple?  Stop bring up how he bankrupted some airline in the 80's.  We all know the airlines were screwed up because of labor problems, fuel cost, ect.  They were all going down anyway.  Its not Ichan's fault that the Board allowed him to take over the company and do what he pleased.

 

Sixth Icahn exudes CONFIDENCE and SWAG.  Something that Tim Cook has been lacking until recently.  If you are not CONFIDENT about your company why would investors be?  And Jobs wasn't a know it all?  Seriously!  What a f'ing double standard.

Um… now you’re adding obfuscation to what increasingly seems like ignorance (given all the substantive finance points – e.g., risk-adjusted returns – that you ignored).

 

For the record, I gave you IEP returns from starting points of 2001, 2004, 2006, 2007, and 2009.

 

That aside, if you’d like to substitute swag (look, no caps, ma!) for analysis, be my guest. ‘Nuff said.

post #67 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

 

Stop the BS.

Good advice. Follow it.

post #68 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post
 

Um… now you’re adding obfuscation to what increasingly seems like ignorance (given all the substantive finance points – e.g., risk-adjusted returns – that you ignored).

 

For the record, I gave you IEP returns from starting points of 2001, 2004, 2006, 2007, and 2009.

 

That aside, if you’d like to substitute swag (look, no caps, ma!) for analysis, be my guest. ‘Nuff said.


1,5,10 years Ichan is 20%+

 

stop using arbitary years.

 

Who am I to believe?  You?  Or Ichan who is worth $20B?

 

Do you think Ichan is a good investor?

Yes or No.

post #69 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post
 

Good advice. Follow it.

 

All my points are truth and facts.

 

you are the one who's saying Ichan claimed victory which is total BS.

post #70 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post


1,5,10 years Ichan is 20%+

 

stop using arbitary years.

 

Who am I to believe?  You?  Or Ichan who is worth $20B?

 

Do you think Ichan is a good investor?

Yes or No.

Good relative to what/whom?

 

I gave you 10, 7, 5, and threw in additional data for 8-year, and starting this millennium, as bonus. The 8-year is particularly revealing (people did get into the market in in 2006 too, you know) – and obviously data that makes you uncomfortable given that Icahn has destroyed some rather impressive value for those investors. (Just as Apple did for those who bought in at ~700). It happens to everyone. Get over it.

 

Use it. Or not.

 

You’re kind getting boring and repetitive at this point. Got better things to do…

post #71 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post
 

Good relative to what/whom?

 

I gave you 10, 7, 5, and threw in additional data for 8-year, and starting this millennium, as bonus. The 8-year is particularly revealing (people did get into the market in in 2006 too, you know) – and obviously data that makes you uncomfortable given that Icahn has destroyed some rather impressive value for those investors. (Just as Apple did for those who bought in at ~700). It happens to everyone. Get over it.

 

Use it. Or not.

 

You’re kind getting boring and repetitive at this point. Got better things to do…

 

me too.

 

facts;

Ichan is a great investor

Apple is a great company

 

They both can learn from each other and have.

Both are now at a point of an understanding.

There is no reason to bash Ichan or Apple at this point.

No one is claiming victory or saying they beat the other.

They share some of the same goals.

post #72 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by focher View Post
 

 

There is such a fundamental flaw in that reasoning. An investor's direct interest is in maximizing the share value. Running a company in the optimum way does not equate directly to share value, which is defined by people guessing what the share value should be. To run a company based on an investor's direct interest is totally flawed and a terrible practice.

 

Some of us choose to invest in companies that are optimally run, but don't assume that the immediate share value represents the true value. We believe that over the long term, the share value will represent the true value. 

You are wrong in your basic premise.  Public companies should all be run in the shareholders best interest.  The shareholders OWN the company. Every decision made by management should be about delivering a return to the owners of the company.  I own several private companies and have run them successfully for 20 years using the same modus operandi.  Trust me, most private companies are run the same way.

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