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Apple unlikely to launch 12.9" iPad or third-gen iPad mini in 2014, iPad Air to gain A8 & Touch ID

post #1 of 70
Thread Starter 
The iPad Air may be the only model in Apple's tablet lineup to receive a refresh this year, with an allegedly still-in-development 12.9-inch model unlikely to launch, and even a successor to the iPad mini with Retina display in doubt, according to one well-connected insider.

Retina iPad mini review


Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of KGI Securities issued a report Saturday evening obtained by AppleInsider, in which he predicted that overall iPad shipments will actually decline this year. That's because he expects that the iPad Air will be the only iPad model to see a refresh in 2014, gaining a next-generation A8 processor and Touch ID fingerprint sensor late in the third quarter of the year.

According to Kuo, development of the next iPad Air and a new 12.9-inch iPad will be the main focus for Apple in the tablet market this year. As such, progress on a new iPad mini will be affected, he believes.

As a result, Kuo said that the chances of a new iPad mini model in the second half of 2014 are "slim." He also doesn't expect that development on a new, larger 12.9-inch mode, sometimes referred to as an "iPad Pro," will be completed in time for a launch this year, leaving just an iPad Air with A8 CPU and Touch ID as the company's refreshed tablet.

Regarding the rumored 12.9-inch iPad, Kuo said he expects it to be a growth driver for the company, and will require a revised operating system to take advantage of the larger display. Apple's current iPad lineup tops out with a 9.7-inch screen on the iPad Air.

According to Kuo, Apple has placed its priorities on finishing the operating system for its anticipated "iWatch," which he says will launch this year. As a result, he doesn't expect that Apple will be able to finish the software for a larger "iPad Pro" by the end of 2014.

"Even if it (a larger iPad) does make an appearance this year, shipments will be low," he wrote.

Retina iPad mini review


Kuo has a strong track record with respect to predicting Apple's future product plans, having correctly predicted most of the company's 2013 product releases months before anyone else. He also revealed the company's entire fall 2012 lineup a year prior.

He predicts that total iPad shipments will fall from 34 million units in the first half of 2013 to below 30 million units in the first half of 2014. Without a new iPad mini or 12.9-inch iPad, he predicts that iPad shipments will decline this year, "unless more aggressive promotions are launched."

His forecast calls for iPad Air shipments to drop between 30 and 40 percent sequentially in the first quarter of calendar 2014, which runs through the end of March, which he referred to as a "slow season."

Kuo also claims that shipments of the new iPad mini with Retina display have been "weak" since that product debuted in the fourth quarter of calendar 2013. Apple's second-generation iPad mini is said to not have seen as strong of a debut as the first-generation model, which launched in late 2012 and was Apple's first tablet with a 7.9-inch display.
post #2 of 70
What a steaming pile of crap!

Even if the Mini doesn't get a complete redesign it would likely get bumped. Even if that bump is Touch ID and nothing else. Touch ID is a huge initiative for Apple, as such they will want to spread it across all hardware as soon as production capacity allows. Frankly Touch ID is a better fit for the Mini than the Air or Pro.

Beyond that --- duh, a larger screen will require OS updates. This guy must think the rest of the world is composed of idiots. Apple has been working towards a more flexible OS for different sized displays for years now, they have this under control.

The ore thing is this, Apple hasn't been sleeping through the winter like a bear. If there is an iPad Pro it likely has been in development for years now. If we are hearing rumors I can't see it being that far off.
post #3 of 70

QUICK. BACKTRACK AND SHORT AAPL.

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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Originally posted by Marvin

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post #4 of 70
The man is clueless - China Mobile taking off now and predicting decline?

I say units will ramp - with Obamacare loaded up - ramping - small businesses are busy firing people - and need to be more efficient - Apple lets us small business operators to survive with this "great" health care plan

As we saw in 2008-9 Apple sales started to ramp - horrible economy means we small business people have to be efficient - With Obamacare, more efficiency is required since we need to cut staff/do more ourselves or with fewer.

Add to this Cooks great work adding Enterprise/schools/govt to iPADs - this broker analysis is dead wrong for ipad sales.

Also expect IPHONE 6, WATCH, AND TV (OR BOX WITH GAMES) - SALES THIS YEAR WILL BE EXPLOSIVE!
post #5 of 70
Color me skeptical. Maybe Apple would attempt to differentiate the models more, but I'd think that both would get at least the bumps to the A8 and Touch ID.
post #6 of 70
Here we go again, the usual instant skeptics trash his analysis. The fact is that Ming is usually right.
post #7 of 70

Patiently waiting for an iPad mini with support for multiple profiles and Touch ID to select between them.  8-)

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   Apple develops an improved programming language.  Google copied Java.  Everything you need to know, right there.

 

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post #8 of 70
'lather, rinse and repeat'...

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Ten years ago, we had Steve Jobs, Bob Hope and Johnny Cash.  Today we have no Jobs, no Hope and no Cash.

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post #9 of 70
Ming is usually right so it excited me with his prediction of the iWatch.... but I'm so against an iPad pro cause who the hell wants to carry a heavy ass tablet? Even if its just for businesses, thats really limiting your customers... I dunno.
post #10 of 70
So let me get this straight...in 2013 Apple updated the full size iPad and iPad mini to wherethe only differentiator was size, but now we're supposed to believe they'll go away from that in 2014 and let the mini fall behind a generation? That makes zero sense. And what does working on new products have to do with updating the specs of the mini? One would assume Apple can do both at the same time.
post #11 of 70

My immediate reaction was to protest Kuo's latest predications. I decided to dig into the archives to remind myself of any previous predictions Kuo made about the rumored 12.9" iPad. On Saturday, October 12, 2013, the following was attributed to Kuo, "Contrary to recent rumors, he doesn't expect Apple to launch a 12-inch iPad next year." Here is the link to the article... http://appleinsider.com/articles/13/10/12/apple-planning-to-launch-all-new-12-macbook-higher-res-sixth-gen-ipad-in-2014. So, Kuo's opinion has not changed in four months. Still, I look forward to learning if Kuo is proven correct or not with his latest predictions about the iPad mini.

post #12 of 70
Shipments of the mini have been weak...what is he basing this on?

If there is an issue with the mini it could be that the Air with its reduced size and weight because such a compelling product, or people were put off by the price increase. I still think not updating the mini this year is BS but IF Apple doesn't update it then I expect the current retina mini to get a price cut and the original mini to possibly be discontinued. This sh be the year where all Apple iOS devices are retina only.
post #13 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by John.B View Post

Patiently waiting for an iPad mini with support for multiple profiles and Touch ID to select between them.  1cool.gif

That would be nice but I am not sure that will happen.

For starters — and probably the simplest to overcome — Touch ID currently has a 5 finger limit. Is this limit because it felt right, you do have 5 fingers on a hand*, or because of some technical reason? If we assume they keep this 5 finger limit** for each user profile how many user profiles could there be before this gets overwhelming to process quickly? Lets say they make it 5 users, could Touch ID match against 25 potential prints as quickly as it can match up to 5?

The bigger problem I see is making each account secure with as little redundancy as possible. Do you have Mail, Safari, Angry Birds, Kingdom Rush, whatever installed once with the user profiles separate or do you have the apps work as they do now but each user has their own installation? In either case how quickly would it load the new user profile. There are settings that require a quasi-reboot*** and even though is fast is it fast enough make this a viable feature? Could Apple just have all user profiles loaded and be switched like virtual desktops to make this faster? If so, how would this affect RAM and system performance?

Perhaps Apple can solve all these issues but it would come at the expense of selling more devices to a family, right? I hate to be such a killjoy but this isn't sounding like it'll be coming.


* I'm counting the thumb.
** I wonder if having one finger as opposed to five different fingers in Touch ID affects how long it takes to find a match? I wonder if the first finger is processed faster than the 5th finger in the list?
*** Seems faster than having to restart but the UI and other services seem to be restarted. Changing the default system language seems to do this if my memory serves.
Edited by SolipsismX - 2/15/14 at 8:11pm

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post #14 of 70
The pro version will not be anything like the air. Apple will most likely have different features, multi-user support and some kind of integration with the Mac. It'll be a whole new platform not just a size increase. Making a bigger iPad isn't their goal, it'll be whole new computing paradigm. Can't wait to see what's in store.
post #15 of 70

Touch ID is not much of an upgrade if you don't use a passcode.

 

This garbage is why Apple doesn't like leaks.  It's just FUD.

post #16 of 70

Not enough touch Id material to go around.
 

We know this is the way it goes (yeah, ok that could change), but we all know Apple has had significant problems with quantity production for almost 'everything' they come out with, for quite awhile.

 

We'll see if that's going to change.

post #17 of 70
The R&D still has ground to make up with perennial spec bumps. I don't expect anything crazy this year but I'd be shocked if they don't release a meager upgrade to all models. Plenty of consumers are waiting on it with cash in hand.
post #18 of 70
This guy is usually right. But if apple doesn't release a update mini this year they are crazy!! Holiday season anyone? I mean it's February! With apples resources there shouldn't be a reason they can't launch a new mini with touch Id by the end of the year!
post #19 of 70
I would say possible the IPad 13 inch possible, but new mini is no brainier, in fact I would not be surprised if we see iPads in Mac line with all iPads simply IPad 5 for name and running same hardware. On all 3 models with the 12-13 inch one having Mac OS as option. This is more likely than no mini upgrade.

Name a Mac(portable) or IOS device (excluding 2013 iPod) that has not upgraded in a year at least once since 2010?
post #20 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by BobSchlob View Post

Not enough touch Id material to go around.

We know this is the way it goes (yeah, ok that could change), but we all know Apple has had significant problems with quantity production for almost 'everything' they come out with, for quite awhile.

We'll see if that's going to change.

The only problem I can recall has been with the yield of new touch screens as the production ramps up, and I'd hardly call that issue to be significant in the whole scheme of things. Any time a company ramps up production from zero to tens of millions in a short time frame there's going to be some issues to iron out. Apple's management of such issues has been amazing, in my estimate.

As Apple continues to push technical boundaries with new products, I expect such issues will will always be there. What I expect to see popping up soon is more issues with brand X products failing in the field, especially with their less robust solid state memory controllers. With Apple setting the price points where the competition's profit is razor thin, there is almost no oxygen left for the competition to be innovative, do much with R & D, or survive if they ever stumble. It's a hard-scramble life for most of Apple's iDevice competitors.
"That (the) world is moving so quickly that iOS is already amongst the older mobile operating systems in active development today." — The Verge
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"That (the) world is moving so quickly that iOS is already amongst the older mobile operating systems in active development today." — The Verge
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post #21 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by AjbDtc826 View Post

The R&D still has ground to make up with perennial spec bumps. I don't expect anything crazy this year but I'd be shocked if they don't release a meager upgrade to all models. Plenty of consumers are waiting on it with cash in hand.

Apple's upgrade roadmap is laid out YEARS into the future. I expect this year's news will bring the A7 / M7 to most, if not all of the tablet line, plus there may be another bump to an A8 in this year as well. Too soon for sapphire to come to tablets, except in the home button finger-print ID. The BIG boost to the tablet line will come in the form of a second hardware product that will enhance the tablet's desirability by working in synergy with the tablet. It will be disruptive.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Curtis Hannah View Post

I would say possible the IPad 13 inch possible, but new mini is no brainier, in fact I would not be surprised if we see iPads in Mac line with all iPads simply IPad 5 for name and running same hardware. On all 3 models with the 12-13 inch one having Mac OS as option. This is more likely than no mini upgrade.

Name a Mac(portable) or IOS device (excluding 2013 iPod) that has not upgraded in a year at least once since 2010?

Be prepared to be surprised with NO Mac product with a touch interface. However, there may be a non-touch gesture interface added to the Mac. The reason for my statement is that for the Mac to thrive it needs to stay pointer-based-compatible with all its software. Microsoft's biggest stumble with Windows 8.x et. al. has been the virtual refusal of third-party software vendors to convert their software to touch-based. In addition, enterprise buyers won't buy the higher priced touch screens. However, enterprise IS BUYING the iPad in droves for a multitude of reasons unrelated to it being a touch-interface.

As to your last question: Look at what has been upgraded in the most recent years of portable Macs. Retina screens and faster, and more energy efficient CPUs. Portable Macs are a relatively mature product and most of the changes has been to keep up to date with technology; not to change any paradigms. Mac is to mouse as touch is to tablet.
"That (the) world is moving so quickly that iOS is already amongst the older mobile operating systems in active development today." — The Verge
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"That (the) world is moving so quickly that iOS is already amongst the older mobile operating systems in active development today." — The Verge
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post #22 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by Macky the Macky View Post
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by BobSchlob View Post

Not enough touch Id material to go around.

We know this is the way it goes (yeah, ok that could change), but we all know Apple has had significant problems with quantity production for almost 'everything' they come out with, for quite awhile.

We'll see if that's going to change.

The only problem I can recall has been with the yield of new touch screens as the production ramps up, and I'd hardly call that issue to be significant in the whole scheme of things. Any time a company ramps up production from zero to tens of millions in a short time frame there's going to be some issues to iron out. Apple's management of such issues has been amazing, in my estimate.

As Apple continues to push technical boundaries with new products, I expect such issues will will always be there. What I expect to see popping up soon is more issues with brand X products failing in the field, especially with their less robust solid state memory controllers. With Apple setting the price points where the competition's profit is razor thin, there is almost no oxygen left for the competition to be innovative, do much with R & D, or survive if they ever stumble. It's a hard-scramble life for most of Apple's iDevice competitors.

 

You say:  "As Apple continues to push technical boundaries with new products, I expect such issues will will always be there."

And I say:  "We know this is the way it goes."

So the disagreement is… what?

 

Apple has had yield issues with some aspect of almost every product they have released over the last couple years. This is known. Research the history if you weren't taking notice at the time.

Or just go and order a Mac Pro.

post #23 of 70
The iPad Air is quite lovely as is.

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post #24 of 70
given that they brought the Mini and Air in line with the A7/M7 it seems more likely that if they do an A8 etc in the Air they will do the same with the Mini at the same time

as for the 13" iPad, yeah i'm thinking it won't come this year. but we will get lots of talk of the reasons for the delay. and again next year and so on. Same as the last 5 years with the 'real tv'

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A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

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post #25 of 70
Well I think Apple should not launch the iPad
Pro until they can make it light enough because if they will relase 750 g of heavy shit like samsung no one is going to buy that. But frankly I think that it's not such necessary category... I consider even the iPad Air big and heavy after the iPad mini like most people I think.
post #26 of 70
Apple does not have time.
post #27 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by justp1ayin View Post

I'm so against an iPad pro cause who the hell wants to carry a heavy ass tablet?

 

So because you prefer blondes, all brunettes should be executed? I don't understand why you object to something you're under no obligation to use?

post #28 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

what does working on new products have to do with updating the specs of the mini? One would assume Apple can do both at the same time.

 

At the time, reports were that work on iOS6 held up completion of something else -- was it Snow Leopard? -- and later that iOS7 interfered with work on Mavericks. If true, it's possible that there's only so much Apple can do at once.

post #29 of 70
Apple needs a new bigger screen iPhone, so that they can stop their market share from shrinking.
post #30 of 70
Originally Posted by peter236 View Post
Apple needs a new bigger screen iPhone, so that they can stop their market share from shrinking.

 

Where’s your white text ‘/s’ after that? You seem to have forgotten it.

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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post #31 of 70
I also believe that the iPad will probably only see spec bumps and possibly TouchID over the next few iterations.

An iPad Pro can come to market when it's ready, and it will surely have it's uses... if... there's optimized software that makes good use of the added screen area, balancing the trade off in added weight. Heavy-ass it won't be, but surely heavier than an Air.

Which brings me to the most pressing need IMO: software. iOS 8 and Mavericks have to mature and start to integrate (NOT MERGE) closer and allow a smooth experience jumping from one to the other. The APIs and frameworks will need to grow ever closer, so that devs can truly make device dependant (not independant... that's the failed MS Mantra) Apps, yet with only the features that are necessary and native to the intended device. Many would say that's what xCode does now, and while true, it has to get even better. Much better.

Services in general, but most of all the build out of iCloud into a true competitor to DropBox and other assorted cloud drive services is a necessity.

I believe we're at a point now with iOS devices quite similar to Mac books and the iMacs of the last few years, that the physical design will stay fairly stagnant, the insides will continue to be boosted... and it will be the software advances that will make them shine and differentiate Apple "The True Device Ecosystem" from the "good enough" mix and match crowd. Heck... we're actually already there, but much more work needs to be done on this front.
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post #32 of 70

The iPad Air was such a leap, we can't expect any more big changes for a while.

 

No word on a 17" MBP?

post #33 of 70
He's a moron, Apple is super predictable with their refresh cycles. A8 processor, no shit!! Retina iPad Mini will be refreshed for sure.

Source: common fucking sense.
post #34 of 70
I want touch ID on my Magic Mouse but have one fingerprint for 5 passwords.
post #35 of 70
Let's have a game of 'make ambiguous predictions', like "chances are slim". Or "even if it does happen I will still be correct". Pathetic.

And what about Kuo's thinner MacBook Pro that was launching in July of 2013? Where's that? Oh yeah, as he's on AI's payroll now we won't be hearing about such discrepancies. I predict 2014 will be the year where we see Kuo get a lot of things wrong. 12.9" iPad? Doesn't even make sense. And no, a convertible is not an iPad. So if Apple launch a convertible product, which I'm doubtful of, Kuo will be wrong. Although, as his failings are never called out around here I expect such a revelatory story would have such language as "so this is what Kuo meant by an iPad Pro".
Edited by Ireland - 2/16/14 at 3:24am
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #36 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by v5v View Post

So because you prefer blondes, all brunettes should be executed? I don't understand why you object to something you're under no obligation to use?

Your reasoning is flawed. The guy is stating an obvious design flaw with a 12.9" tablet: it would be too heavy design wise. That's got nothing to do with killing brunettes, or preferring smaller iPads. I don't see a 12.9" iPad happening for weight and awkwardness reasons. A 12.9" something else perhaps.
Edited by Ireland - 2/16/14 at 3:26am
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #37 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by peter236 View Post

Apple needs a new bigger screen iPhone, so that they can stop their market share from shrinking.

It's coming this year. Chill.
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #38 of 70
Would be interesting if they integrated TouchID into a re-designed power button on future MacBooks...
post #39 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by v5v View Post

At the time, reports were that work on iOS6 held up completion of something else -- was it Snow Leopard? -- and later that iOS7 interfered with work on Mavericks. If true, it's possible that there's only so much Apple can do at once.
but this report claims the Air will be updated with A8 (and one would assume new iPhone(s) as well). So what extra work would there be in updating the mini with it?
post #40 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by pjapk View Post

Would be interesting if they integrated TouchID into a re-designed power button on future MacBooks...

But isn't the power button moving/moved to the F-key now? I think it'd be cooler (far more tricky) if they integrated Touch ID into the trackpad.
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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