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Google has fooled the media and markets, but hasn't bested Tim Cook's Apple - Page 2

post #41 of 299
The author hit it right on the buck - that Google has tried every possible way to get the false Android market share delusion espoused...
post #42 of 299
I appreciate your in-depth reporting, Daniel. While I sometimes rant about the misguided attention given Google's "80%, my devil's advocate position is that Mr. Market's fixation on Google will eventually fade, and in the meantime I can continue to bulk up on APPL knowing that the I'm earning a nice dividend while buying more "on sale".
post #43 of 299
Quote:
Originally Posted by ash471 View Post

<Bla bla bla...>
That brings up another point, which is that PC sales could go to zero and ad revenue could still increase because you don't need to sell a PC to use a PC. This is exactly why Apple needs to start lowering the price on iPhones and take more market share and charge for services on the devices.

What you don't get is that people are using more and more mobile devices and less and less PCs.

Not only are people buying less PCs but they are using PCs less.

post #44 of 299

Great article.  To me, DED often forcefully reports what needs to be highlighted and emphasized because it is so often overlooked by the more popular tech press, (who gets mesmerized by featuring G Glass ski jumping or a robot driving your car).  

 

Whenever I listen to the "collective choir" of Wall Street analysts' Q&A after Apple's quarterly earnings reports, (with some of their inane questions), or read their commentaries associated with their periodic share-value downgrades, why do I get the impression that practically NONE of these highly-paid "experts" ever bother to read articles like this nor follow the handful of a select few other non-Wall Street, yet enlightened analysts or commentators who offer a deeper perspective, and keep pointing out the gaping holes in these flimsy arguments as to why Apple shares deserve to be SO undervalued and always on the precipice of doom and destruction?  We all know the handful of analysts I am talking about here.  Like DED, most of them are very telegenic and/or write and speak very well.  Can't we find a way to see some of these commentators interviewed on TV or quoted in major publications a bit more?

post #45 of 299
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post



Cook clearly isn't the showman Jobs was but I've never gotten the impression that Cook had a far inferior desire for quality and precision. In fact, I would argue that Cook's drive for unheard of efficiency is part of the same psychology that was present in Jobs, and probably why Cook was the primary choice as CEO. As an owner of a Retina MBP and an iPhone 5S I see no evidence that attention to detail has waned.

I don't think the quality has waned either. The Retina MBP is a beautiful machine. I just think Jobs was the root cause/inspiration for that quality, and that quality was the driving force behind Apple's resurgence, so it would be more correct to call this the Jobs era than the Cook era.

post #46 of 299
Quote:
Originally Posted by Peterbob View Post

Sites like android central, Google os, literally pretends apple doesn't exist..., its weird.

Not weird, monkeys can't ever look the big guy in the eye.
post #47 of 299
Quote:
Originally Posted by aktionman View Post

this may be a good article, but i can't get past the 3rd paragraph. can somebody please proof read?
<<That lost was accompanied by an layoff restructuring of 1,300 employees>>

If that's the only typo you saw, you're fired as a proofreader.
post #48 of 299
Quote:
Originally Posted by ascii View Post

I don't think the quality has waned either. The Retina MBP is a beautiful machine. I just think Jobs was the root cause/inspiration for that quality, and that quality was the driving force behind Apple's resurgence, so it would be more correct to call this the Jobs era than the Cook era.

Who's era it is comes down to who can light their own farts at a board meeting and no one else will acknowledge they saw anything odd happen.
post #49 of 299
Quote:
Originally Posted by ash471 View Post
 

You are way over thinking it.  Google can do no wrong because they make all their money from advertising and those ad revenues are growing at 37%, despite the PC industry sinking.  In other words, even if PC sales go to zero, Google is still going to make money because the people that own PC are still using them and receiving ads.  Apple sells a commodity hardware that will eventually succumb to the pricing pressures and the inability to make significant improvements. At some point, your current iPhone will be good enough and you won't care to upgrade. We aren't there yet, but it isn't too far into the future. In other words, the writing is on the wall that Apple's revenue growth is going to slow and Apple will be a giant dividend producing machine.  Its not necessarily a bad thing, but its a different investment and warrants a lower multiple on the stock. 

....At least that's the theory.  Personally I think Apple has some growth still in it, which is why I own the stock.

 

 

This argument can be used to support Apple business perspectives, too : even if they keep the same machines Apple customers generate substantial revenues through immaterial content sales (iTunes, App Store Apps ....) .... I am always surprised WS never pays attention to this .

There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life.

Frank Zappa

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There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life.

Frank Zappa

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post #50 of 299
Quote:
Originally Posted by iSammi View Post

The author hit it right on the buck - that Google has tried every possible way to get the false Android market share delusion espoused...

And that's not all that hard when you control the search engine all the researchers use to fluff out their daily drivel...
post #51 of 299
Quote:
Originally Posted by ash471 View Post

You are way over thinking it.  Google can do no wrong because they make all their money from advertising and those ad revenues are growing at 37%, despite the PC industry sinking.  In other words, even if PC sales go to zero, Google is still going to make money because the people that own PC are still using them and receiving ads.  Apple sells a commodity hardware that will eventually succumb to the pricing pressures and the inability to make significant improvements. At some point, your current iPhone will be good enough and you won't care to upgrade. We aren't there yet, but it isn't too far into the future. In other words, the writing is on the wall that Apple's revenue growth is going to slow and Apple will be a giant dividend producing machine.  Its not necessarily a bad thing, but its a different investment and warrants a lower multiple on the stock. 
....At least that's the theory.  Personally I think Apple has some growth still in it, which is why I own the stock.

I am pointing out the portion of your post where your conclusion went off-track.

Apple sells a prestige product, that could become a commodity product if Apple marketed it that way. This is why Apple is outselling all but one of the Android-based barely-intelligent phones (at nearly three-times the price) and totally dominating the iPad tablet market where it is also the costliest product. The value of a prestige product is not measurable because it has nothing to do with cost of ownership, but is founded upon other intrinsic features.

We live in a world where there are commodity automobiles and prestige automobiles. There are $10 wrist watches and Rolexes worth $30,000. There will always be room for prestige products even in mature markets such as automobiles and watches.

There's no reason for Apple's revenue growth to slow, especially if then continue innovating and extend themselves into new markets. Apple has such a caché aura they could sell bronzed dog turds and people would line up to buy them. It would damage their brand, but people would buy them.
post #52 of 299
Quote:
Originally Posted by tiger2 View Post

For better or worse, I don't think this is true. The first x number of products will be credited to Jobs. Unless they flop. Then Cook will be "credited".

I'm curious to watch how this same story will play out over in Redmond Washington... when will the new guy be recognized without people saying, "Oh, that's because Bill Gates is actually doing it," or "That was actually done on Ballmer's watch."
post #53 of 299

i'm not the proof reader & i didn't get any further.

post #54 of 299

Nice article Daniel!

Anyway long story short: Google's earnings are still growing fast, Apple's don't.

WallStreet likes growing businesses. That's it.

post #55 of 299
Apple will most likely also expand in mobile payments and personal health, two key markets I think.
post #56 of 299
Quote:
Originally Posted by ash471 View Post

hmmmm, the problem here is that Google continues to grow and Apple is not. Yes Apple has a very nice business and is making more money than Google, but investors are looking at the future, not today, and the data suggests that Google is continuing to grow. It doesn't matter that the PC market is shrinking. The data suggests that the people are continuing to use PCs for doing Google searches and despite the decrease in sales, ad revenue from these PCs are still growing.
That brings up another point, which is that PC sales could go to zero and ad revenue could still increase because you don't need to sell a PC to use a PC. This is exactly why Apple needs to start lowering the price on iPhones and take more market share and charge for services on the devices.

I completely agree. And apple doesn't seem capable of doing paid services.

Maps took time to become acceptable (not good) and was shoved on anybody's phone anyway. Ping went nowhere.
iTunes Radio works only in a handful of countries, and is free because of apple's cash.
iCloud became free, iLife became free, iWork became free. OSX became free. Aperture became almost free (from 300 USD to 80)
Once you go free you can't go back. So if sales decline you cannot make customers pay for your sw. But that's not my point.
Apple has cut off all revenue stream from anything else than hardware sales. And development of these program takes cash. Now they have it, but in time?
And the latest versions of all the mentioned software is a dumbed down version of the previous one (including final cut).
Apple has constantly failed in social, iAd and iTunes Radio advertisements haven't taken off as expected. Maps still needs lots of work (but has become better) but doesn't generate any ad related revenue when it should be a primary source of ads and revenue.

As much as I am an apple buyer and happy user, seeing the total dependency of apple on hardware sales makes me uneasy. If apple ever has a huge flop, a product that doesn't sell, then it is in a world of trouble.
And, because of this dependency, apple has to enter new product categories because as soon as a market matures or shrinks, they lose all revenue. Apple had to enter phone and tablet and they did it quite well. But look at the iPod, there was a time when it was the main contributor to Apple's bottom line. And now is no more. If wearable really takes off then smartphones will become less important. If smart objects really take off, then what little computer is left will go the way of the dodo.

Apple is great right now, but the legs seem thin. They make tons of money, but on 2 product lines with nothing else behind them. The whole ecosystem lives because of the sales of these two products. And, opposite to google, apple is not entrenched in a market (search) that basically gives them tranquility. In 2014 iPhone sales will decline (or, at the very least, stop growing), it is the inevitable cycle of markets and has little to do with competition. So either apple enters a new market or really it will face shrinking. And the price of a smartphone, and related revenue, is much higher (and sales numbers are too) than the one of a watch.
My opinion is that apple is strong, but it has to be really careful to differentiate revenue streams (by doing both home (appletv and others, darn them for not buying Nest) and wearable).
And, for .'s sake, do software right! Fix numbers, pages, aperture, mail, allow me to use airdrop between a mac and an iOS device, etc etc.
Because apple is leaving the door wide open for Microsoft and others.
post #57 of 299
@pinolo, you have no idea of what you are talking about. Apple's hardware power is going up, not down.

Not only that, Apple doesn't need the iPhone and the iPad to be as lucrative as Google, not to mention what it would take for them to burn through 170 billion.

The Mac was never better, and the PC market saturated a long time ago. In fact, when the smartphone market saturates, everyone will lose market share, besides Apple, as the natural progression of costumers continues. (buy cheap Android - buy good Android - buy iphone)
post #58 of 299
Almost venomous... but quite amusing too.
post #59 of 299
Quote:
Originally Posted by pinolo View Post


I completely agree. And apple doesn't seem capable of doing paid services.

Maps took time to become acceptable (not good) and was shoved on anybody's phone anyway. Ping went nowhere.
iTunes Radio works only in a handful of countries, and is free because of apple's cash.
iCloud became free, iLife became free, iWork became free. OSX became free. Aperture became almost free (from 300 USD to 80)
Once you go free you can't go back. So if sales decline you cannot make customers pay for your sw. But that's not my point.
Apple has cut off all revenue stream from anything else than hardware sales. And development of these program takes cash. Now they have it, but in time?
And the latest versions of all the mentioned software is a dumbed down version of the previous one (including final cut).
Apple has constantly failed in social, iAd and iTunes Radio advertisements haven't taken off as expected. Maps still needs lots of work (but has become better) but doesn't generate any ad related revenue when it should be a primary source of ads and revenue.

As much as I am an apple buyer and happy user, seeing the total dependency of apple on hardware sales makes me uneasy. If apple ever has a huge flop, a product that doesn't sell, then it is in a world of trouble.
And, because of this dependency, apple has to enter new product categories because as soon as a market matures or shrinks, they lose all revenue. Apple had to enter phone and tablet and they did it quite well. But look at the iPod, there was a time when it was the main contributor to Apple's bottom line. And now is

 

So, how does iTunes, that is the various iTunes store's revenue compare to Google's entire revenue?

 

Over the last several years iTunes revenue when taken on it's own has exploded and is more than every Android handset maker, apart from Samsung, earns combined.

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post #60 of 299
Quote:
Originally Posted by hill60 View Post

Rubbish.

When Jobs launched the iPhone AND iPad they were universally scorned, rubbished, ridiculed, laughed at, etc by the majority of the tech press and Apple's competitors.

Nothing, I repeat nothing has changed.

Yes something has changed. Apple doesn't have the ultimate salesman anymore. Tim Cook and Phil Schiller can't sell things the way Steve could (on stage).
Edited by Rogifan - 2/16/14 at 4:09am
post #61 of 299
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post


Yes smelting has changed. Apple doesn't have the ultimate salesman anymore. Tim Cook and Phil Schiller can't sell things the way Steve could.

 

Too bad only SEVENTEEN HUNDRED people showed up at the opening of the first Apple store in Brazil.

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post #62 of 299
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

I think we may have discussed this before but there have been no new product categories which is different from "no new products" being released. I am not a fan of the huge gaps within the year with no products or events but the changes that have been made under Cook have been great. WWDC should be in about 4 months demoing iOS 8 and a few month after that we should definitely have new Macs, iPods (since they skipped last year) and a new version of Mac OS X. I wouldn't be surprised if the new Apple TV hits this year along with a new product category, but if a new product category doesn't arrive I am fine with that. Measure twice, cut once.
I'm not one who thinks Apple needs to be releasing brand new products on a set schedule, but when Tim Cook says in interviews, earnings calls and employee memos that new stuff (and in some cases he says "new categories") is coming this year, just refreshing the current product line won't cut it. In Tim Cook's holiday memo to employees he said:
Quote:
We have a lot to look forward to in 2014, including some big plans that we think customers are going to love.
I think most people would assume "big plans" means more than just refreshing the current product line, or an iPhone with a bigger screen. At some point Cook has to back up his talk with products, IMO.
post #63 of 299
Quote:
Originally Posted by hill60 View Post

Too bad only SEVENTEEN HUNDRED people showed up at the opening of the first Apple store in Brazil.
as far as consumers go apple products sell themselves. But no current Apple exec can match Steve as far as captivating an audience during a keynote.
post #64 of 299
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post


as far as consumers go apple products sell themselves. But no current Apple exec can match Steve as far as captivating an audience during a keynote.

 

Only very few sales executives have made as much money selling products as Tim Cook has.

 

In fact apart from big oil and gas, Apple under Tim Cook is the only consumer electronics company to reach such high profits, ever.

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post #65 of 299
Quote:
Originally Posted by Peterbob View Post

Apple fanboy blogs seem to love talking about Google and what google does, yet google, android fanboy blogs seem to not give a dam. Sites like android central, Google os, literally pretends apple doesn't exist and Apple blogs seem to have this weird hatred for Google, its weird.

Good point. But the point of this article is the astounding dishonesty of the tech media. And that is simply undeniable. Unfortunately, people parrot their lies into " truth" like the sheeple they are. Daniel is good at exposing the bullshit.
post #66 of 299
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mash View Post

Apple fanboy blogs seem to love talking about
Google and what google does, yet google,
android fanboy blogs seem to not give a dam.
Sites like android central, Google os, literally
pretends apple doesn't exist and Apple blogs
seem to have this weird hatred for Google, its
weird.


LOL, I've also just noticed this. It's so weird, this Google hate Apple blogs have

 

Hahaha, you Android Defenders are so full of it. Google "apple site:androidcentral.com", last 24 hours. Let's see... no hits, one hit? Oh, whoops, almost 40 Apple references, in one day. Entire threads like "Why are Samsung phones better than Apple phones," just to pick the first example.

 

Nothing funnier than you Defenders posting on an Apple fansite to explain how Android fanbois don't freakishly obsess over Apple. I mean, just look at what you're doing.

 

Lordy, you are hysterical. Thanks for the laughs. And please, don't ever change.

post #67 of 299
Quote:
Originally Posted by aktionman View Post

this may be a good article, but i can't get past the 3rd paragraph. can somebody please proof read?
<<That lost was accompanied by an layoff restructuring of 1,300 employees>>

If you try hard enough, you can get past it. We believe in you.
post #68 of 299
Quote:
Originally Posted by hill60 View Post

Only very few sales executives have made as much money selling products as Tim Cook has.

In fact apart from big oil and gas, Apple under Tim Cook is the only consumer electronics company to reach such high profits, ever.
i would argue thought that the products sold themselves. It will be interesting when we do get something brand new, like a wearable device, how the product is pitched, and who pitches it. The iPad keynote last year was a bit disappointing because it was mostly Schiller reading off a list of specs from keynote slides. And no demonstration of what the 64-bit A7 brought to the iPad. It would have been nice to see some optimized software in action. I'm hoping that Apple does a re-think of their keynotes this year, maybe become less predictable. Who knows, perhaps Angela Ahrendts already has ideas on how Apple can re-imagine their marking/PR. You never want things to get stale.
post #69 of 299
Quote:
Originally Posted by hill60 View Post

Only very few sales executives have made as much money selling products as Tim Cook has.

In fact apart from big oil and gas, Apple under Tim Cook is the only consumer electronics company to reach such high profits, ever.

Apple kept growing because of the previous innovations and smartphone market increases ( although market share declined.).

I can't believe that anybody thinks that Cook is more important to the Company than Jobs
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post #70 of 299
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleSauce007 View Post

Amen. You forgot to mention the Google wallet disaster.
A stolen technology from PayPal which amounted to nothing.

We'll see how the Apple payments effort materializes.
We already know that iBeacon is already making major progress.

Time will tell.

Google Wallet didn't succeed because all the partners who were invested in Isis, including three of the four major US mobile carriers, did everything within their power to restrict Wallet's key feature, which is mobile payment via NFC.  As a matter of fact, Verizon went as far as to restrict installation of the app entirely on their smartphones, even those that didn't even have NFC.  It was a power play to prevent the death of Isis before it was even launched, because Google had their product ready first.

post #71 of 299
Quote:

Originally Posted by Constable Odo View Post
 

... preceding nonsense

 

I know Apple isn't going out of business for a long time but it appears the share price has been capped below $600 and there's nothing much more to look forward to.

 

Then sell your AAPL stake and spare us the continuous whining and moaning. You’ve become a ridiculous crybaby. If, as you whine, there’s no more potential for growth and the dividend isn’t enough then it’s time to sell. Basic rule of investing. What’s your problem anyway?


Edited by lkrupp - 2/16/14 at 5:02am
post #72 of 299
Quote:
Originally Posted by asdasd View Post


Apple kept growing because of the previous innovations and smartphone market increases ( although market share declined.).

I can't believe that anybody thinks that Cook is more important to the Company than Jobs

 

I didn't say that, I said Cook has successfully continued the oversight of Apple beyond anyone's wildest dreams.

 

Leaving behind the handpicked team he did, was Jobs' greatest legacy.

 

Of course the "Apple is doomed" crowd continue to deny this.

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post #73 of 299
DED

Writer of great articles.

And also great signatures.
If you're going to be original, then you can count on being copied.
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post #74 of 299
Quote:
Originally Posted by asdasd View Post

Apple kept growing because of the previous innovations and smartphone market increases ( although market share declined.).

I can't believe that anybody thinks that Cook is more important to the Company than Jobs
The reason Apple is able to sell 51 million iPhones in a quarter is because of Cook. Cook is just as important as Jobs was, hence why Jobs made him CEO.
post #75 of 299
Quote:
Originally Posted by pinolo View Post

Warning: Spoiler! (Click to show)
I completely agree. And apple doesn't seem capable of doing paid services.
Maps took time to become acceptable (not good) and was shoved on anybody's phone anyway. Ping went nowhere.
iTunes Radio works only in a handful of countries, and is free because of apple's cash.
iCloud became free, iLife became free, iWork became free. OSX became free. Aperture became almost free (from 300 USD to 80)
Once you go free you can't go back. So if sales decline you cannot make customers pay for your sw. But that's not my point.
Apple has cut off all revenue stream from anything else than hardware sales. And development of these program takes cash. Now they have it, but in time?
And the latest versions of all the mentioned software is a dumbed down version of the previous one (including final cut).
Apple has constantly failed in social, iAd and iTunes Radio advertisements haven't taken off as expected. Maps still needs lots of work (but has become better) but doesn't generate any ad related revenue when it should be a primary source of ads and revenue.

As much as I am an apple buyer and happy user, seeing the total dependency of apple on hardware sales makes me uneasy. If apple ever has a huge flop, a product that doesn't sell, then it is in a world of trouble.
And, because of this dependency, apple has to enter new product categories because as soon as a market matures or shrinks, they lose all revenue. Apple had to enter phone and tablet and they did it quite well. But look at the iPod, there was a time when it was the main contributor to Apple's bottom line. And now is no more. If wearable really takes off then smartphones will become less important. If smart objects really take off, then what little computer is left will go the way of the dodo.

Apple is great right now, but the legs seem thin. They make tons of money, but on 2 product lines with nothing else behind them. The whole ecosystem lives because of the sales of these two products. And, opposite to google, apple is not entrenched in a market (search) that basically gives them tranquility. In 2014 iPhone sales will decline (or, at the very least, stop growing), it is the inevitable cycle of markets and has little to do with competition. So either apple enters a new market or really it will face shrinking. And the price of a smartphone, and related revenue, is much higher (and sales numbers are too) than the one of a watch.
My opinion is that apple is strong, but it has to be really careful to differentiate revenue streams (by doing both home (appletv and others, darn them for not buying Nest) and wearable).
And, for .'s sake, do software right! Fix numbers, pages, aperture, mail, allow me to use airdrop between a mac and an iOS device, etc etc.
Because apple is leaving the door wide open for Microsoft and others.

ok, if google reduced their price for ads in half, and apple did the same, would Google be able to sell twice to quadruple the number of ads?. NO, the ad market iis already saturated... but apple on the other hand could sell twice as many phones ... (hmmm, in china?. can google sell ads in china?...)
BTW, Samsung is selling 4 times the phones (at half the price) , but they are not making the profit that apple is, and google is only making 15 dollars a phone.
Google is in trouble in 2020 when their search patent has expired, when that happens expect their revenue to be one third it is today....
remember that Apple makes tangible items, whereas (to steal /paraphrase a line from "the crazy ones" "simon roberts was here" eps. 14 i believe). google takes a lie and makes it into an ad ... and apple takes a truth and makes it into a product...
Edited by haar - 2/16/14 at 5:56am
post #76 of 299
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

The reason Apple is able to sell 51 million iPhones in a quarter is because of Cook. Cook is just as important as Jobs was, hence why Jobs made him CEO.

That's a COO job.
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post #77 of 299
Wall Street remains obsessed with Apple's short term performance and the belief that Apple's existence is predicated upon their next hit or failed product. Meanwhile, Apple is executing a 10-25 year strategy that will leave their competitors behind entirely as Apple takes its place as the World's only super-company.

It's a foolish mistake to believe Apple and Google are in the same league. I also think that one of the reasons Wall Street produces so much FUD, tripe, and uninformed analysis is that on some level, they know Apple doesn't care about their opinions and hasn't for many years.
post #78 of 299
Quote:
Originally Posted by haar View Post

Google is in trouble in 2020 when their search patent has expired, when that happens expect their revenue to be one third it is today....

Man that is freakin' good news. Never knew, glad to read this; thanks.
"See her this weekend. You hit it off, come Turkey Day, maybe you can stuff her."
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post #79 of 299
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleTechSpot View Post

So long as tech media are dependent on Google search results for traffic and ad dollars you can expect this lie to continue. People are afraid (and with good reason) of Google retaliation.

Hopefully the EU gets after Google more on the Android front and really bears its teeth. Google's monopoly on search must not continue unchecked and that is why I am really hoping for a resurgent Yahoo and Facebook and Twitter to start gobbling up mobile ad revenues and starve the Google beast as the transition to mobile continues..


Google don't have a monopoly on searching.  I have been using DuckDuckGo for years and would only try google for 1 in 50 where DDG didn't deliver.  About the only thing I would consistently use google for is image searches.

post #80 of 299
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

as far as consumers go apple products sell themselves. But no current Apple exec can match Steve as far as captivating an audience during a keynote.

Federighi and Cue don't do a bad job though!
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