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Gartner ignores Apple's sales numbers, reports Android marketshare doubled iPad in 2013 - Page 4

post #121 of 159
Quote:
Originally Posted by pedromartins View Post
 

With what?

 

With the stuff he is paid to promote. No need for a tin foil hat on this one.

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post #122 of 159
Quote:
Originally Posted by cropr View Post
 

I would not just dismiss the Gartner figures as biased. I own a software company who develops smartphone and tablet apps for enterprises. 3 years ago a typical request from a potential customer was to develop first an iOS app and port it later to Android. In 2013 roughly all my customers asked simultaneously an iOS and Android versions of their app. Well in 2014 I have received the first customer request for an Android app only. This means that mindset in the market is gradually shifting.

If I look to the personal devices of my employees, I see 2 iPads, 4 Android tablets and 1 Surface

 

If they do that they will lose money, as you may well know. The installed base for iPads is not only higher ( the 60% Android is recent) but the "Others" category is not really a multi-touch category. It can't be, not at that price. It must be a touch resistant screen and not a real capacitive device, good for movies, and not much else. Apple can't sit on their laurels, however and all they need to do is reduce the price of an entry model, maybe a mini by $50. 

 

Also I never really liked Apple's hipster advertising - get out there advertising the fact that the iPad has much more and better apps, that developers make more money, that the ecosystem is the best, that it is the only Enterprise solution.

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post #123 of 159
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Apple is the only major company to report sales to end users, while Android device makers like Samsung note only shipments.

 

I thought this was disproved?  If nothing else, it just seems implausible that Apple collates sales figures from all of the worldwide retailers that carry iPads.

 

That could be some part of the explanation for the iPad figure discrepancy - Apple report direct sales to end users and shipments to retailers, Gartner estimate sales.

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post #124 of 159
Anal-ysis from CNBC:

Apple's slow pace of growth concerns some investors.

Colin Gillis, a senior tech analyst at BGC Financial, asked why the company, with its massive cash reserves of close to $160 billion, hasn't been aggressive making blockbuster acquisitions.

Google made headlines by buying robotics companies, and Facebook recently agreed to pay up to $19 billion for instant messaging service WhatsApp. Why can't Apple buy wearable tech companies like Jawbone or Fitbit, Gillis asked.

What's more, iPhones sell at a much higher premium than other smartphones—twice as much as the average price, about $650 versus $330, he said.

"It's a fine strategy to have, but it's going to come at the expense of volume," Gillis told CNBC. "Apple is going to be less effective in the emerging markets."

(I guess anal-yists are like weathermen - virtually no consequences for getting it wrong)
post #125 of 159
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crowley View Post

I thought this was disproved?  If nothing else, it just seems implausible that Apple collates sales figures from all of the worldwide retailers that carry iPads.

That could be some part of the explanation for the iPad figure discrepancy - Apple report direct sales to end users and shipments to retailers, Gartner estimate sales.

Apple reports shipments AND approximate inventory levels. Anyone can deduce end user sales. Other companies don't give any numbers while Sammy provides a pct range change from the previous year.
post #126 of 159

Whose inventory levels, resellers?  How "approximate" are those figures?

 

It seems to me like there's a bit of uncertainty between those measures and "Apple reports sales to end users".  If Apple are approximating then it's not infeasible that Gartner are using their own approximations, which may be better (or worse) than Apple's.

 

The article takes it as read that Apple's figures are certain.

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post #127 of 159
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crowley View Post

Whose inventory levels, resellers?  How "approximate" are those figures?

It seems to me like there's a bit of uncertainty between those measures and "Apple reports sales to end users".  If Apple are approximating then it's not infeasible that Gartner are using their own approximations, which may be better (or worse) than Apple's.

The article takes it as read that Apple's figures are certain.

I believe Apple gets weekly reports from its authorized resellers in addition to its info as well. In addition 1st party numbers are more accurate than 3rd party numbers.
post #128 of 159
Jungmark, where did you find that? I asked Apple how they arrive at the numbers several months back. To their credit they answered me too.
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post #129 of 159

Interesting, thanks.

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post #130 of 159
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

Jungmark, where did you find that? I asked Apple how they arrive at the numbers several months back. To their credit they answered me too.

I thought I read on forums that someone called/emailed and recd a response. From a business sense, that also makes sense too, especially for Apple.
post #131 of 159
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post

I thought I read on forums that someone called/emailed and recd a response.
That was likely me as I don't recall anyone else mentioning it. You should send a request yourself and see what they answer. .
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post

From a business sense, that also makes sense too, especially for Apple.
Yes, it would make sense, but Apple hasn't said that AFAIK.
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post #132 of 159
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

That was likely me as I don't recall anyone else mentioning it. You should send a request yourself and see what they answer. .
Yes, it would make sense, but Apple hasn't said that AFAIK.

Maybe Tim will respond. Just because Apple doesn't mention it, doesn't mean it's not happening.

If Apple can control its prices at 3rd parties, it can sure can view inventory numbers, at least for idevices.
post #133 of 159
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crowley View Post
 

Whose inventory levels, resellers?  How "approximate" are those figures?

 

It seems to me like there's a bit of uncertainty between those measures and "Apple reports sales to end users".  If Apple are approximating then it's not infeasible that Gartner are using their own approximations, which may be better (or worse) than Apple's.

 

The article takes it as read that Apple's figures are certain.

 

Apple knows when every single device is switched on for the first time and activated.

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post #134 of 159
Quote:
Originally Posted by hill60 View Post

Apple knows when every single device is switched on for the first time and activated.

So why not report activations then. I think you're suggesting that would be an accurate way of reporting actual end-user sales and it's information they have at their fingertips,
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post #135 of 159
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post


So why not report activations then. I think you're suggesting that would be an accurate way of reporting actual end-user sales and it's information they have at their fingertips,

 

Who knows, perhaps Apple prefers to keep that level of detail confidential.

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post #136 of 159
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crowley View Post

Whose inventory levels, resellers?  How "approximate" are those figures?

Apple knows how many iPads that Best Buy orders, for instance.

Best Buy knows how many iPads get sent to each of their stores and how many people buy them.

But does Apple know how many iPads get sent to each Best Buy store and how many people buy them? Does Apple get that sort of data back from its resellers?

It might not matter to Apple though. I was under the impression that, in general, Apple products don't sit on any shelf for very long. If an iPad gets shipped to a store on a Monday... it probably won't be there next Monday. In other words... every iPad that is in a store will find a home very soon.

How soon will affect a store's current inventory... but I don't think any store has a problem selling iPads.
post #137 of 159
Originally Posted by Michael Scrip View Post
Does Apple get that sort of data back from its resellers?

 

Not sure they’d need to. What iPad DOESN’T connect to Apple during setup?

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post #138 of 159

Why does the author suggest that only Apple report sales to end users?

 

It is clear that Apple would be aware of the number of units sold through their own stores but they have no accurate info regarding sales through channels.

 

In the UK, for example, I would guess that only 5% of iPhones are sold through Apple stores. The other 95% would be stock that may or may not be sitting on shelves or in a warehouse waiting to be sold/shipped.

 

EDIT------------ Oops, didn't see that the topic had been raised...

post #139 of 159
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Not sure they’d need to. What iPad DOESN’T connect to Apple during setup?

Google reported activations. What Google Android phone doesn't connect to Google services during setup. Apple could report activations too then?
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post #140 of 159
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post
Google reported activations. What Google Android phone doesn't connect to Google services during setup. Apple could report activations too then?

 

Apple receives the serial number, I believe. How many devices have the same serial number?

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post #141 of 159
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Apple receives the serial number, I believe. How many devices have the same serial number?

I would think none of them do, Google Android or Apple iDevices.
Edited by Gatorguy - 3/6/14 at 3:04pm
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post #142 of 159
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post


Google reported activations. What Google Android phone doesn't connect to Google services during setup. Apple could report activations too then?

This is about tablets though, and I think Amazon Kindle Fires are included in the Android figures, which presumably isn't activated by Google?  Likewise all other non-Google Play Android devices.

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post #143 of 159
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crowley View Post

This is about tablets though, and I think Amazon Kindle Fires are included in the Android figures, which presumably isn't activated by Google?  Likewise all other non-Google Play Android devices.
No Kindles aren't counted in activations. They don't use Google services and don't log into Google Play either.
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post #144 of 159

But Kindles do appear to be included under Android in Gartner's numbers - compare table two to table one.  Assuming the 9.4m Amazon sales in table two are included somewhere in table one, they can only be counted under Android or iOS, and they certainly aren't iOS.

 

If that's true, then the Android numbers aren't just Google activations.

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post #145 of 159
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crowley View Post

But Kindles do appear to be included under Android in Gartner's numbers - compare table two to table one.

Ah gotcha, Yes they do. With Kindle sales up only 22% tho most of the growth came from Google Android devices. Those cheap sub-$100 no-name tablets were almost certainly a big hunk of 'em too. That's where the big numbers are probably coming from IMO.
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post #146 of 159
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post


Ah gotcha, Yes they do. With Kindle sales up only 22% tho most of the growth came from Google Android devices. Those cheap sub-$100 no-name tablets were almost certainly a big hunk of 'em too. That's where the big numbers are probably coming from IMO.

 

That and TV USB sticks which run Android.

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post #147 of 159
Quote:
Originally Posted by cropr View Post

I would not just dismiss the Gartner figures as biased. I own a software company who develops smartphone and tablet apps for enterprises. 3 years ago a typical request from a potential customer was to develop first an iOS app and port it later to Android. In 2013 roughly all my customers asked simultaneously an iOS and Android versions of their app. Well in 2014 I have received the first customer request for an Android app only. This means that mindset in the market is gradually shifting.

If I look to the personal devices of my employees, I see 2 iPads, 4 Android tablets and 1 Surface

that is just anecdotal. IOS is more profitable than Android for developing by far.
post #148 of 159

I manage the device business of a large carrier. Last month the leading handset seller in our country decided to quit selling Tablets as sales is low and their brand is suffering as a consequence of poor customer experience. Other vendors are also very cautious about bringing in Tablets as their initial Tablet experiements failed miserably. Initially some sales were made but these white box Tablets quickly started gathering dust or thrown away (yes, they are so awefull) after one or two months. The only Tablets that managed to keep themselves useful after 3 or 4 months are the Nexus/Galaxy ones but they are very limited compared to iPads.

 

I don't see any threat to iPads from these cheap crappy tablets. Even the shipping numbers may be large (which I doubt), the actual sales numbers will reduce day by day as the fact about awefull experience with these tablets will get spread. Initially people talk about the $200 price tag as if it can be treated as a commodity but people quickly realized that the value they are getting is even samller than the low price.

 

With a different note - This type of stupidity is not new from Gartner. Search for - "Why does the IT industry continue to listen to Gartner?" and you will find a nice article about the wonderful (/s) predictions Gartner made about PC Industry and how horrible their analysis is. 

post #149 of 159

90% of the apps my company develops are free apps for 3rd parties: timetable app for a bus company, loyalty card app for a shoe shop, ...  The fact that one of my customers is no longer interested in an iOS version of an app, because "Android has 80% of the market" as the customer said, is not anectodical;  The times are changing.  Of course this is related iOS market share in my region, which has dropped below 20%.

post #150 of 159

Not sure you fully grasp what "anecdotal" means, because that's definitely anecdotal to anyone else.

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post #151 of 159
Quote:
Originally Posted by hill60 View Post

That and TV USB sticks which run Android.

You think Gartner is also gathering ship/sales numbers on TV stick to included in their tablet numbers? LOL.
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post #152 of 159
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post


You think Gartner is also gathering ship/sales numbers on TV stick to included in their tablet numbers? LOL.

 

It's about the only way to explain 10's of millions of "others".

 

ROFL

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post #153 of 159

There are loads of smaller brands, cheap entry-level and off-brand crappy tablets out there.  Not to mention that some major manufacturers aren't on the list in their own right - Sony, HP, LG, Barnes & Noble (Nook).

 

They aren't major movers individually, but they all add up.  

 

The TV sticks might be included, but there's probably a sizeable number of "Others" that are genuine (though probably rubbish) tablets too.

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post #154 of 159
Quote:
Originally Posted by cropr View Post

90% of the apps my company develops are free apps for 3rd parties: timetable app for a bus company, loyalty card app for a shoe shop, ...  The fact that one of my customers is no longer interested in an iOS version of an app, because "Android has 80% of the market" as the customer said, is not anectodical;  The times are changing.  Of course this is related iOS market share in my region, which has dropped below 20%.

Just curious... what region are you in?

Android has 80% of the worldwide smartphone market. It's a big number for sure... but that also includes a lot of terrible phones sold in developing nations. If you take those away... the addressable market for an app isn't that full 80%

iOS has always had extremely high usage share despite only having 15% market share. That's what developers should be interested in.

I'm a little shocked that a developer is putting so much importance on Android's "80% market share"

And don't forget... market share is just the percentage of phones sold over the last 3 months. We haven't even mentioned installed base.

There are a few hundred million iPhones out in the world right now... whose customers use their iPhones more and spend more money than Android users.

So even though there are more Android devices out in the world... the iOS devices seem to be used more.
post #155 of 159
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigJim View Post

I'm also sticking with the best. Samsung android phone with much larger screen. Apple will get there. Several years late. Or maybe ship iPhone with a magnifying glass.

PS Google is no Microsoft. Android is no Windows.

 

Android is the recreation of windows on a phone terrible.

post #156 of 159
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crosslad View Post


Then why have Samsungs shares fallen in the last year? I bought a Samsung Tablet for myself last year and a cheap android tablet for my daughter. The cheap android is stuck on ICS and never comes out of its box. The Samsung tablet is the only tablet I have ever purchased that has a crack in the case. I use it mainly for watching catch up tv as the keyboard is not responsive enough to do anything else on. These are counted in the huge increase I android tablets, but I will probably never get an Android tablet again.

 

The return on investment for iPhones, iPads, Mac's, and the overall quality of the programs available with worthwhile software updates, can't be beat by Android, and Windows ecosystems. The 4,4s and the iPad 2 are still great computers/phones. (that are highly valued on the resale market).

post #157 of 159
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post


Google reported activations. What Google Android phone doesn't connect to Google services during setup. Apple could report activations too then?

 

If that is true why is it taking so long for OS upgrades on Android? Within two weeks half of all iOS users will have upgraded to the latest iOS released by Apple, the internet usage numbers and revenue paid to developers is simply not there for Android OS. The activation numbers are mostly lies and the earning reports from the OEM'S show no profit at all except for Samsung (and that is if you believe them, the real number is probably only half of what they report).

post #158 of 159
Quote:
Originally Posted by Danox View Post

If that is true why is it taking so long for OS upgrades on Android? Within two weeks half of all iOS users will have upgraded to the latest iOS released by Apple, the internet usage numbers and revenue paid to developers is simply not there for Android OS. The activation numbers are mostly lies and the earning reports from the OEM'S show no profit at all except for Samsung (and that is if you believe them, the real number is probably only half of what they report).

Google only pushes OS updates to Nexus devices, the rest are up to manufacturers and carriers, and Samsung would be in a world of hurt by the SEC if they're ever caught lying, so it wouldn't pay to do so.
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post #159 of 159
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBell View Post

Yes, but as an Apple investor you should. Those idiots are trying to undermine your investment, by putting out the false impression that iPad sales are falling. Major news sources pick up their headlines. 

Fortunately, the best defense against a lie is the truth.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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GOA

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