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Big-screen 'iPhone 6' predicted to drive massive upgrades, draw switchers from Android to Apple

post #1 of 166
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If Apple were to launch a redesigned iPhone with a screen size around 5 inches this year, it would become the "motherlode of all upgrade cycles" for the company, helping to reaccelerate year over year growth, one analyst believes.




Many current iPhone owners experience "large-screen envy" driven by competing Android devices with bigger displays, analyst Brian Marshall of ISI Group believes. In a note to investors issued this week, a copy of which was provided to AppleInsider, he said he believes a larger iPhone will drive significant upgrades among existing iPhone users, and would also convert a large number of Android users to Apple's platform.

Marshall of estimates that the current iPhone installed base is about 260 million users, which is equivalent to the last seven quarters worth of iPhone sales. He also estimates that slightly more than half of iPhone sales today go to upgraders.

In his estimates, about 9 percent of total existing iPhone users upgrade to a newer model in the average quarter. He believes that number has actually dropped as the iPhone market has grown, having hit around 11 percent in 2011 and 2012.

In peak quarters, Marshall believes as many as 14 percent of existing iPhone owners opt to upgrade to a newer handset. He expects a similar upgrade for Apple's so-called "iPhone 6" in the second half of 2014, if not a higher percentage.

Specifically, Marshall believes Apple could release two new iPhone models to better serve the existing smartphone market. He sees the company launching one handset with a 4.7-inch display, and another with a jumbo-sized 5.5-inch screen.

iPhone Plus
Mockup of iPhone with 4.94-inch screen, created by Marco Arment.


With what he believes is "pent-up demand" for a larger iPhone, Marshall predicts that the new models could drive $3.00 in additional earnings per share.

ISI Group rates AAPL stock as a "strong buy" with a price target of $600. Marshall said that while new product introductions -- such as the recently announced CarPlay or a rumored "iWatch" -- generate buzz, the iPhone remains Apple's most important product, representing 60 percent of its gross profits.

Marshall is one of a large number of investors who are widely expecting Apple to introduce a larger iPhone later this year. Just last week, Andy Hargreaves of Pacific Crest predicted that Apple's next handset will feature a 4.7-inch display and a $299 starting price tag.

Currently, Apple's iPhone 5s and iPhone 5c come with screen sizes of 4 inches. If Apple were to increase the display size on its next-generation handset, sometimes referred to as an "iPhone 6," it would be the second time that the company has done so, originally starting with a 3.5-inch display on the first-generation iPhone through the iPhone 4S.

While some reports have claimed Apple has experimented with iPhone screen sizes approaching 6 inches diagonally, and Marshall believes Apple will launch a handset in the 5.5-inch range, proven insider Ming-Chi Kuo of KGI Securities believes Apple won't exceed 5 inches on a larger iPhone display, citing the company's commitment to an "unwavering principle of one hand use." He expects the next iPhone to have a screen size larger than 4.5 inches, but smaller than 5.
post #2 of 166
And tomorrow is predicted to come after today.
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post #3 of 166

I am waiting for a big screen phone to upgrade my 4s but it they rise the price, I am not so sure I will upgrade.

 

I dont see how this will make people switch from android to iOS?

post #4 of 166

So if a larger screen will get some switchers, why not just make one with a 11.3” screen and get everyone to switch from Android?

Makes sense to analysts.

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post #5 of 166
Ooh, this is cool. Apple's HealthBook app outed and it looks pretty useful. It might drive a few iPhone6 sales too.
http://9to*mac.com/2014/03/17/this-is-healthbook-apples-first-major-step-into-health-fitness-tracking/

As usual substitute a 5 in place of the asterisk. AI still blocks a direct link to their stories.
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post #6 of 166
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

So if a larger screen will get some switchers, why not just make one with a 11.3” screen and get everyone to switch from Android?


Makes sense to analysts.

That's an argument to extreme. People who want larger phones don't wanted over large phones.
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post #7 of 166
Originally Posted by asdasd View Post
People who want larger phones don't wanted over large phones.

 

But that’s already the definition of a larger phone.

Originally Posted by helia

I can break your arm if I apply enough force, but in normal handshaking this won't happen ever.
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Originally Posted by helia

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post #8 of 166
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou View Post

I am waiting for a big screen phone to upgrade my 4s but it they rise the price, I am not so sure I will upgrade.

I dont see how this will make people switch from android to iOS?

When I leave the comfort of AI and go to general mobile forums I find there are some people who say they will leave Samsung et al. for the iPhone if a larger screen is available. Generally these are guys who are agnostic regarding the OS wars and often left iOS because of a bigger screen on other devices. Samsung is not doing it for them these days.

I personally prefer the 4" so here's hoping they don't get rid.
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post #9 of 166
Would hate to lose the one-handed operation but I can see older folks wanting bigger screens.
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post #10 of 166
Quote:
Originally Posted by asdasd View Post


When I leave the comfort of AI and go to general mobile forums I find there are some people who say they will leave Samsung et al. for the iPhone if a larger screen is available. Generally these are guys who are agnostic regarding the OS wars and often left iOS because of a bigger screen on other devices. Samsung is not doing it for them these days.

I personally prefer the 4" so here's hoping they don't get rid.

 

imo they will keep the 4" around but it will become the mid-range phone that may not included all the bell'n whistle of the bigger screen high end phone.

post #11 of 166
I'm holding out for a 30" iPhone.
post #12 of 166
I call BS on this one. Personally my iPhone 4 already takes up a lot of space in my pocket. The only way I'd even consider a larger screen device is if it fit into a smaller form factor. With the advent of iPads I simply don't need or want a device bigger than my iPhone 4. In fact I'd rather go back to iPhone 3 sized devices. If Apple does enter this large device market I suspect they will be coming in on the trailing edge of a fad. That is not good for business.

In a nut shell most of us don't want a massive amount of bulk in our pockets for a daily carry. IPad provides the perfect large screen solution when you really need it.
post #13 of 166

Of course sales on a larger iPhone 6 will blow away any previous iPhone sales. Not only is their huge pent-up demand by existing iPhone owners but many people with larger Android devices would prefer an iPhone if it had a larger display.  I used to think Apple would simply keep the 4" model and add a larger one around 4.9" but both would be the iPhone 6. Now I am no longer sure Apple will even continue with a 4" at all, at least on their premium line with all the new bells and whistles. Perhaps the 5s will become the 6c and be sold as a cheaper 4" model. Apple seems to like very clear product differentiation to avoid confusion so would they allow 2 separate models to both share the iPhone 6 name with different display sizes. Unfortunately with the glut of 5s models that will be for sale the resell price will likely plummet but I certainly will be selling my 5s in order to finally buy the iPhone I have been waiting for. One thing is certain, once people actually hold and use a larger iPhone for a few days they will never ever want to return to a 4" version. This is precisely why those Galaxy buyers couldn't make the switch even if they prefer everything about iOS and Apple hardware, that screen size just seemed like too much of a massive downgrade. 

post #14 of 166
I'm hanging onto my iPhone 4s until the iPhone 6 comes out, it's still a capable device and the iPhone has not really had a new look since the iPhone 4. Hopefully we will get a similar leap in terms of looks as we had from the 3Gs to the iPhone 4.
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post #15 of 166
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post
 

So if a larger screen will get some switchers, why not just make one with a 11.3” screen and get everyone to switch from Android?

Makes sense to analysts.

Truthfully, whether the larger screen argument makes sense or not, it is the only outstanding reason anyone could ever stand on to opt for a Shamescum device over an iPhone. 

 

You have to remember, some people make smartphone buying decisions based on very basic primal factors. Look & Price. Look & Price.

 

Since the Galaxy devices are priced about the same as iPhones, price isn't much of a factor. So it must be the size they're drawn to. "If I can get this one, that's bigger than that one, for the same price, I win".......that sorta thing.

 

Its definitely happening. No we don't have sales numbers, but I'll tell you this: I was at Best Buy yesterday and there was quite the crowd standing around those Shamescum phones, playing with the display models. And Yes they looked exactly like who I would expect to see playing with them....people who don't have smartphones yet or know anything about them at all.

 

Something about the larger screen is attracting attention. Unfortunately we have no real sales numbers to conclude that larger screen = success...but since Apple is gearing up to go that route we have to assume that there is something to it.

post #16 of 166
Quote:
Originally Posted by dugbug View Post

Would hate to lose the one-handed operation but I can see older folks wanting bigger screens.
I'm thinking that Apple will design the phone to allow one handed operation while also delivering near edge to edge screen at full HD resolution. I like my 4s form factor as well.
post #17 of 166
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou View Post

I am waiting for a big screen phone to upgrade my 4s but it they rise the price, I am not so sure I will upgrade.

Why wait this long? Does Canada not offer the same resale value as in The States? I find selling my phone when it'll still get an iOS update from Apple for another year a good way to get enough money to warrant buying a new device.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

Ooh, this is cool. Apple's HealthBook app outed and it looks pretty useful. It might drive a few iPhone6 sales too.
http://9to*mac.com/2014/03/17/this-is-healthbook-apples-first-major-step-into-health-fitness-tracking/

As usual substitute a 5 in place of the asterisk. AI still blocks a direct link to their stories.

You can also use a URL shrinker.

Quote:
Originally Posted by dugbug View Post

Would hate to lose the one-handed operation but I can see older folks wanting bigger screens.

I want a larger display but not a larger phone, like they did with the iPhone 5 over the iPhone 4S. That said, the rumoured sizes may make this very difficult to achieve but I'll wait before decided since Apple has a knack for balancing a design.

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post #18 of 166
Quote:
Originally Posted by saarek View Post

I'm hanging onto my iPhone 4s until the iPhone 6 comes out, it's still a capable device and the iPhone has not really had a new look since the iPhone 4. Hopefully we will get a similar leap in terms of looks as we had from the 3Gs to the iPhone 4.

I hope so as well. And you are absolutely right, besides making it a bit longer and adding a new color, the iPhone 5s looks pretty much exactly like the iPhone 4. I am very bored with that design and after 4 years it is time  to make a completely new design that feels better in the hand and also more comfortable to hold in your hand and up to your ear. What I am also hoping for is the larger size will add around 25% battery life so I could finally not be forced to buy another battery case for full day use. A larger display and longer battery life are my top 2 wishes. 

post #19 of 166
Ignore tallest skill, he's just a little butthurt over a larger screen.
He said that if apple released a bigger phone he would quit buying iPhones/never upgrade etc.

I can't wait. He will eat those words and he will get the bigger screen iPhone and Then, and only Then will it be the best thing ever created....

Of course we all know, tallest skil is perfect and always right, everyone else in the world is an idiot.

I would go back and look for his exact words about never upgrading to the larger iphone but I just looked and he has 31,000+ posts correcting everyone and inserting his superior knowledge. His work is never done since we are all idiots in his eyes.
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post #20 of 166
Quote:
Originally Posted by gwmac View Post

Of course sales on a larger iPhone 6 will blow away any previous iPhone sales. Not only is their huge pent-up demand by existing iPhone owners but many people with larger Android devices would prefer an iPhone if it had a larger display.  
Baloney, even Samsung has had to struggle with the sales of their large devices. The so called pent up demand comes from a few loud whiners and not the general populace.
Quote:
I used to think Apple would simply keep the 4" model and add a larger one around 4.9" but both would be the iPhone 6. Now I am no longer sure Apple will even continue with a 4" at all, at least on their premium line with all the new bells and whistles. Perhaps the 5s will become the 6c and be sold as a cheaper 4" model. Apple seems to like very clear product differentiation to avoid confusion so would they allow 2 separate models to both share the iPhone 6 name with different display sizes.
Nope. I've always promoted the idea that Apple needs at least two iPhone solutions. As such they would name the devices accordingly, just like they do with iPads (Mini & AIR).
Quote:
Unfortunately with the glut of 5s models that will be for sale the resell price will likely plummet but I certainly will be selling my 5s in order to finally buy the iPhone I have been hbwaiting for.
Why would the glut be any bigger than any other iPhone release. You have primed your mind with the notion that everybody wants a bigger cell phone. This isn't the case, iPhone 4 is already pretty bulky.
Quote:
One thing is certain, once people actually hold and use a larger iPhone for a few days they will never ever want to return to a 4" version.
Not if it is a device they need to carry around with them constantly. Do you expect Cargo pants to come back?
Quote:
This is precisely why those Galaxy buyers couldn't make the switch even if they prefer everything about iOS and Apple hardware, that screen size just seemed like too much of a massive downgrade. 

It is a certainty that screen size impacts usability but let's face it that is why there are tablets selling successfully right now. Screen size has to be compatible with intended us and it is here where large cell phones have problems. Honestly what do you expect, people will transition to carrying their cell phones clipped to pouches on their belts?

The only way I can see Apple being successful here is if they can maintain physical size by dropping bezels and such.
post #21 of 166
Quote:
Originally Posted by pmz View Post

Something about the larger screen is attracting attention.

Maybe for the same reason people now own 50"+ size TVs, or 27" computer monitors.
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post #22 of 166
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Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

You can also use a URL shrinker.

Thanks! I had forgotten all about doing that. I've done so several times in the past on other forums, but for some reason it never occurred to me here. 1embarassed.gif
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post #23 of 166
I don't want a large iPhone. Will it hurt Apple if they offered two sizes? 4" and 5"? I don't want a larger iPhone but I would still get it over anything else.

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post #24 of 166
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou View Post
 

 

imo they will keep the 4" around but it will become the mid-range phone that may not included all the bell'n whistle of the bigger screen high end phone.

Purposely gimping the smaller screened smartphones is an Android OEM strategy. I don't see Apple copying that. The 5s is the only top performing smartphone on the market in that screen size.  If you look at how Apple has aligned its range of devices with the A7, they deployed it across all of the new models introduced last fall (except the 5c, which is really a redressed 5).  Aside from screen size, the iPad mini retina for example has everything that the iPad air has.

 

If the 4" iPhone becomes a mid-range model, it will only happen because Apple chose to carry over the internals from the 5s and chose to standardize all future iPhone lines around the larger screen.  If they introduce a truly new 4" iPhone that shares the new exterior design with the larger screened model, I doubt they would cripple it with inferior chips and missing features. 

post #25 of 166
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

Thanks! I had forgotten all about doing that. I've done so several times in the past on other forums, but for some reason it never occurred to me here. 1embarassed.gif

https://bitly.com/m/#/
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post #26 of 166
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

Why wait this long? Does Canada not offer the same resale value as in The States? I find selling my phone when it'll still get an iOS update from Apple for another year a good way to get enough money to warrant buying a new device.
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I want a larger display but not a larger phone, like they did with the iPhone 5 over the iPhone 4S. That said, the rumoured sizes may make this very difficult to achieve but I'll wait before decided since Apple has a knack for balancing a design.

I think Apple can do it. As an example the MotoX really isn't physically that much larger than the iPhone 5S, but the display is significantly bigger.
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post #27 of 166
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

I think Apple can do it. As an example the MotoX really isn't physically that much larger than the iPhone 5S, but the display is significantly bigger.

1) That looks too big for my liking.

2) Apple needs to get over waning the top and bottom bezels to be the same size for symmetry if they are going to continue to use a Home Button on the front.

3) Didn't Tim Cook state, within the last few months, that Apple is looking into a larger iPhone but the technology isn't yet ready?

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post #28 of 166
I have absolutely no desire for a bigger phone - I keep my phone in my front pocket of my jeans and would not want anything bigger. Most women I speak to dont want big phones either. I just can't see masses of people moving to bigger phones. It won't be the catalyst for Apple's growth IMHO.
post #29 of 166
Quote:
Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post
""

Oh really then why is it on every online survey I have seen both recent and ones going back to 2011, even on Apple focused websites, the larger display choices always trounce the demand for sticking with 4". I challenge you to find a recent and reputable poll where 4" wins over a larger variant.  I realize anecdotal evidence is hardly proof of anything but at the same time it is very hard to dismiss and among my family, friends, co-workers, and just people you meet in public without fail people that own an iPhone always say they want a larger display and people with larger Android phones say their #1 reason they didn't buy an iPhone is screen size. This is about the only website in fact where I have even read comments preferring a 4" over a larger variant. I don't doubt there are some that prefer 4" or even 3.5" displays but if you think larger displays are a fad and in a few years we will all be pining for 3.5" display again you will be disappointed. Apple seems to understand where the market is heading and what people prefer even if you don't. 

 

Cargo pants? Are you actually being serious? I can easily fit a Galaxy S5 in my standard sized pockets now. Why do you assume an iPhone 6 would be larger than a Galaxy S5. It will most certainly decrease the ridiculously large bezel size. Even with that it will necessarily have to be a larger iPhone if they go to 4.7" but I doubt it will be much larger dimensions once the forehead and possibly chin get reduced. One handed use simply isn't the "end all be all" it once was to Apple as even 5s owners began to use it more and more often in landscape mode. 

post #30 of 166
It is no brainier that very large numbers of Iphone users waiting for over two years for the larger size screen iphone will upgrade right away and many who switched to android just for larger screen phone will switched back. Such notion is useless to debate. If you ask around both iphone and android phone users, you will get such answer.
post #31 of 166
This is the new iPhone 6


cell.gif_thumbnail0.jpg
post #32 of 166
If Apple doesn't release a large phone like the masses have been clamoring for, pronto, it will be extremely detrimental to AAPL's stock.
post #33 of 166
And I've always been told that Apple leads.
😉
Just put call capability on the Mini and be done with it.
 
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post #34 of 166
Quote:
Originally Posted by dv8or View Post

I have absolutely no desire for a bigger phone - I keep my phone in my front pocket of my jeans and would not want anything bigger. Most women I speak to dont want big phones either. I just can't see masses of people moving to bigger phones. It won't be the catalyst for Apple's growth IMHO.

 

Almost 200,000,000 sold Galaxy phones the last 2 years says otherwise.  The only advantage of Samsung Galaxy phones over the iPhone is size.  Literally every single person I've spoke to who owns a Galaxy says it the size of the screen that made them buy it instead of an iPhone.

 

IMO they should have a 4 and a 5 inch phone. 

post #35 of 166

Although I appreciated that what I want is not necessarily reflected by the majority I find that I would like to keep the one handed operation of my iPhone in tact. I am not a fan of the size increase in my wife's iPhone 5c as I find my thumb strains to reach the absolute top of the display.

 

Going any bigger will require two handed operation for certain tasks, I fail to see how this is a step forward. My iPad covers all big screened activities nicely, but I can see how some people can either not afford or do not want to buy an iPad and want a bigger screen.

 

I don't think I'll ever get the image of some spotty teenager on the train with one of the original big Samsung phones pressed up against the side of his face out of my head. He looked so stupid talking into this massive piece of crap.


Edited by saarek - 3/17/14 at 8:23am
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post #36 of 166
One option would be to make the pixels a bit bigger but keep the count the same. If they do that then developers don't have to re-tweak all the apps.
post #37 of 166
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

 

Almost 200,000,000 sold Galaxy phones the last 2 years says otherwise.  The only advantage of Samsung Galaxy phones over the iPhone is size.  Literally every single person I've spoke to who owns a Galaxy says it the size of the screen that made them buy it instead of an iPhone.

 

IMO they should have a 4 and a 5 inch phone. 

 

But what proof is there that the almost 200,000,000 people bought the phone because it has a larger screen? There are other reasons why people don't buy iPhones. 

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post #38 of 166
Quote:
Originally Posted by saarek View Post
 

Although I appreciated that what I want is not necessarily reflected by the majority I find that I would like to keep the one handed operation of my iPhone in tact.

 

 

In fact you are the majority opinion. And if the majority did indeed want a ‘big’ screen then why is the iPhone’s market share in the U.S. at 42.x% and Samsung at 28.x%?

post #39 of 166
Originally Posted by macxpress View Post

There are other reasons why people don't buy iPhones. 

 

For example, if they just want a phone that’s a phone, e-mail, and Facebook. 

Originally Posted by helia

I can break your arm if I apply enough force, but in normal handshaking this won't happen ever.
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post #40 of 166
Quote:
Originally Posted by macxpress View Post

But what proof is there that the almost 200,000,000 people bought the phone because it has a larger screen? There are other reasons why people don't buy iPhones. 

That and how many iPhones were sold in the same time frame.

Still I see a iPhone 6 and 6+ as compliments. 6 will be the normal 4" and the 6+ being the sub 5".
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