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Project "Glove" and "Lucida" in July - Page 2

post #41 of 390
I feel that allen mcjones is the real deal. He's busting to tell about some amazing Apple device and he's scared they'll see this and get pissed. And believe me, they WILL see this. They've got people dedicated to hunting down leaks. So the fact that his IP address might be exposed and connect his true identity to these posts is a valid fear.

The camera sounds good. More fully realized than the past posts that portrayed it as lacking any compelling differences from Sony or Canon devices. There ARE decent 2 megapixel still cameras out there and a few 1 megapixel video-combo-still cameras, too. It will not be hard for Apple to strike a good balance on a hybrid video/still camera. It will be killer combined with their winning interface/industrial design. Just don't expect it to be under $900.

[ 05-24-2002: Message edited by: clonenode ]</p>
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post #42 of 390
This is a very cool rumor.

I hope it's real. The cost of Microsoft is skyrocketing (they have to maintain their growth right?) So giving people a nice juicy carrot to trease them away from MS would be fantastic. Jobs said yesterday they wanted to double market share and they'll do that if they can get businesses to buy their solution.

As for the camera. I pray it's real. This sounds like whatI've been waiting for!! As for the price, I can see it around $999, so $1499 CDN.. I was going to do that for the Sony MicroMV.. but that format does not work with Firewire.


crossing my fingers, and transfering more $$ to my ING account to get ready..

[ 05-24-2002: Message edited by: JasonPP ]</p>
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post #43 of 390
People Unlimited Licenses are Licenses to access the Server and do not necessarily denote an entire OS. Think about it this way sure you could purchase and XServe with Unlimited CL's but that doesn't mean your legion of Beige G3's have OSX running on them. This is very significant and I applaud Apple for not following MicroSiths moneygrubbing ways!
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post #44 of 390
How does this 'glove' license differ from the MacOS of old? Traditionally the OS was free after purchasing a new machine. You could go to a local computer store with a floppy and get a new copy.

If this is the same basic idea of the 'glove' license then 1) Jobs has done it before and 2) it was ultimately revoked in favor of paid upgrades and could easily be revoked again.

Is there some understanding about this license I'm missing?
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post #45 of 390
Glove is an EXCELLENT idea given the recent backlash against MS and the BSA's extortion practices.

Scenario: You have 1000 computers in your company. You have 760 copies of Office XP, 785 copies of XP, 120 copies of NT, 15 copies of Win95, 124 copies of Office98, etc, etc, etc. Machines get moved around, reinstalled (no kidding, really?), parts swapped out, etc, etc.

BSA/MS calls you up and says "We're auditing you. If you have even *ONE* unauthorized copy of our software on *ANY* machine, we're pressing charges, at $200,000 per violation."

You freak. You don't have the paper trail and proof at the level of detail they're looking for. You can't *prove* you have licenses for every piece of software - manuals are missing, serial numbers are moved between machines, etc. Estimated costs run into the hundreds of thousands of dollars to do a complete survey and analysis.

"That's okay," the BSA/MS says, "to make it easy on you, you can just pay us $100 per machine, per year, and we won't audit you."

This is for software you already own, remember.

Extortion. There's no difference between this and mob protection.

They've tried it against several NW school districts around Portland in particular, and the result? The districts are moving to Linux ASAP. (See <a href="http://www.slashdot.org" target="_blank">www.slashdot.org</a> for details... search for BSA for various stories along these lines.)

Eliminating the need for license tracking is a *HUGE* win for small to medium businesses. Large corporations often have robust asset management in place, but medium ones don't, and have more to track than small ones. As evidenced above, this is also a huge win for school districts.

'Glove' would kick MS directly in the groin. Apple loses a minimal amount of OS revenue at this point in time, really (most purchases are still consumer, single-user), and potentially sells a *LOT* more machines... which is where the money is. Beautiful.
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post #46 of 390
Yup, if Allen's telling the truth (and even if not) Glove is nothing short of genius.

Most Apple revenue is in hardware. Bleating about TCO becomes easier ... it smells of Linuxy open-ness, it smells like the xServe licensing ploy...

Some serious differentiation between MS emerges (always been there, but now more obvious): MS may rip off the OS, but they *cannot* rip off this pricing policy: licensing is their lifeblood.

MS concentrate on network per-usage of apps in the future ... Apple do EXACTLY the opposite.

MS concentrate on "it's all about the network" and Apple say it's all about the device. Sod "activation," just go for it.

Oh and btw, we'll integrate with your existing infrastructure.

There's some serious strategy here. This fits with emphasis on iPod as a data / home shuttle too. iPod is going to be VERY important.

I buy this. I buy it buy it buy it, as a good idea even if the poor sap in Cupertino who has to read this **** is laughing his bollocks off.
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post #47 of 390
[quote]Originally posted by Kickaha:
<strong>Glove is an EXCELLENT idea given the recent backlash against MS and the BSA's extortion practices.

Scenario: ..... Beautiful.</strong><hr></blockquote>

Actually, that scenario was beautifully done. Good job. And you're right, this would definitely serve Microsoft their balls on a plate with a side of fries.

There is one thing I don't believe though, and that is this: if this person who started the idea was REALLY legit, he would have at LEAST come up with a cool nickname, like 'zee Mole' or 'Worker Bee 2' or something interesting.
post #48 of 390
Glove sounds like a very good idea for now, though if Apple does implement this, it would only be temporary until they reach critical mass in market share. Software sales are pure profit once they go GM. This revenue is too significant to give up indefinitely.

Job's is quoted all over the place as trying to have Apple "innovate" their way through the recession. I get the feeling that we have yet to see their next, big innovative thing. Is it this so called Lucida? Dunno, but the Lucida is NOT a technological challenge. They sell disposable underwater cameras now for christ sake!

Imagine an iPod-size camera (not unlike the device in that commercial with the midget jumping out at people). Now imagine that it came with a clear plastic shell that was waterproof but still allowed you access to the record and stop buttons.
post #49 of 390
If Apple has a camcorder/camera in the works I hope they don't make it too small. Ever try taking a decent picture with one of those pocket cams?.... not very easy. iPod size is much too small.
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post #50 of 390
[quote]Originally posted by hir:
<strong>Glove sounds like a very good idea for now, though if Apple does implement this, it would only be temporary until they reach critical mass in market share. Software sales are pure profit once they go GM. This revenue is too significant to give up indefinitely.</strong><hr></blockquote>

Yup. This is why antitrust laws exist: When you have a lock on a market, it's really easy to abuse it. However, I don't think we'll have to worry about Apple replacing MS for some time now.

[quote]<strong>Job's is quoted all over the place as trying to have Apple "innovate" their way through the recession. I get the feeling that we have yet to see their next, big innovative thing. Is it this so called Lucida? Dunno, but the Lucida is NOT a technological challenge. They sell disposable underwater cameras now for christ sake!</strong><hr></blockquote>

Innovation doesn't imply engineering challenges. It can, of course, but you can innovate by taking existing technologies and combining them in a way that inspires people, or even by hitting a features/price point that nobody had managed to do before (consider the Palm: I'm spending how much for what?! No wonder sales are sagging).

[quote]<strong>Imagine an iPod-size camera (not unlike the device in that commercial with the midget jumping out at people). Now imagine that it came with a clear plastic shell that was waterproof but still allowed you access to the record and stop buttons.</strong><hr></blockquote>

Then imagine not having to deal with film or cards or sticks or batteries. You recharge a battery that's got enough juice to go for hours, shoot pictures onto a drive that's got enough capacity to store a lot of pictures, and download 'em all over FireWire to a Mac (recharging the battery in the process), where iPhoto catalogs, tweaks, and prints them. Maybe you could even upload pictures to the camera and use it as a sort of visual iPod? Then, take the usual, bewildering array of menus and controls and boil them down to something simple and intuitive, again iPod style.

Optics are not an issue, because there is a 0% chance that Apple will try to do any of that. They'll buy someone else's optics (probably Kodak's, if the QuickTake is any precedent), and distinguish their offering by the little computer wrapped around the camera - which they're in a better position to engineer than any of the camera manufacturers are, with the possible exceptions of Sony and HP.

Like the iPod, it will command a premium price. But it might just be intuitive and hassle-free enough to fly off the shelves like the iPod has.

Oh, and it'll be white, not clear. Clear plastic is so last year.
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post #51 of 390
Interesting and intriguing idea.

Simple. Yet devastating. 'Glove'...

The 'iCamera'?

Sounds like a perfect foil for iPhoto. Digital Camera sales are skyrocketing. I'd be surprised if Apple didn't want a piece of the 'pie'



Especially considering their broadening of the brand 'digital devices' strategy. If it's anything like the 'iPod'?

I'd consider buying...

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post #52 of 390
I agree that software is pure profit once you go golden master, but I don't neccessarily agree that the OS itself would be a huge profit stream for Apple once the transition is complete.

Why would I buy OSX for my macs? When the time comes I buy news macs and get the latest OSX along with them (free!).

I really think that OSX sales have been a lot higher than they will ever be again (as a percentage of total revenue) because this is the transition period. Once the transition period is done the vast majority of people will use the OS that comes with their machine and for the most part see little significant need to upgrade beyond free bug fixes and free minor updates.

Apple can afford to give the OS away for free. M$ cannot. You'll still have to buy FCP, DVD Sudio Pro, cinema tools, QT pro, etc... upgrades and packages for each of you machines. New versions of these should continue to work on versions of OSX that are a few dot.point versions behind the latest and greatest. People upgrade software and not the OS unless they need the new OS for teh new software/features. That situation will largely disappear once OSX is fully implemented. Apple won't give up that much of a revenue stream.
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post #53 of 390
[quote]Originally posted by allenmcjones:
<strong>Glove is a code name given to a Apple (new) strategy that started the day after Microsoft announced their software as a service model. Glove means "one size fits all". This strategy is designed for the heart of MS's strategy. I know the general specs. After July, only "1" OSX license is required to install OSX on any Mac. Every corporation, printshop, creative house, school, college or anybody is ONLY required to purchase "1" license of OSX.</strong><hr></blockquote>

OK. Take this rumor, Darwin x86, and x86 OS X nVidia drivers, mix in a little Jaguar, and add a dash of "we want marketshare."

I've always believed that OS X x86 existed, but I always thought it was "just in case." This makes it seem possible that Apple might release an x86 OS X!

Oh, one more thing...VirtualPC for Windows. Runs other/multiple Windows environments within Windows, and run them at hardware speed, since it is hardware, after all.

If Apple cut a deal with Connectix, and allowed x86 users to install their favorite Windows alongside Mac OS X to run legacy software, Apple could snatch a substantial portion of the x86 OS marketshare.

Fascinating!
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post #54 of 390
I'll start with the camera. Yes/No/Maybe, but if true, it would be unlikely to use any type of 'tape'. The entire body would be sealed. Video/Audio/Still Picture transfer to and from the camera would be entirely electronic. The only real issue would be the lens. It is far easier to design and manufacture a permanent (non-removable) zoom lens. No expandability like a Canon or Nikon 35mm camera system.

I see 'glove' three ways.

1) A rumor that will go nowhere.
2) Deliberate disinformation*. Unlikely, but if true, it begs the question, what's the follow up?
3) A valid idea given serious thought at Apple computer.

1) A rumor will fade away (well, at least outside the Mac industry).

2) Besides the shaking and quaking at Microsoft, what purpose would disinformation serve? Only FUD. It could give Microsoft an incentive to delay, or change some of their licensing plans. However, it's more likely to reverse Microsoft's attention (competition efforts) from 90% against Linux, to 90% against Apple. I know you've all heard "Every action has an equal and opposite reaction". Is this what they (Apple) want (disinformation/FUD)? If so, we now enter the realm of politics, Legal warfare (DOJ vs. MS is only the most obvious), and public attacks disguised as mind share and marketing games. Historically, this is definitely not one of Apple's (or Steve Job's) strengths.

3) If this is truly under discussion at Apple, then this info leak will/has cause(d) a great deal of harm. It could even shelve the plan. Leaks on Strategic plans cause FAR more harm than "Will the next Mac have 133 or 266 DDR...".

While it's very clear that Apple wishes to keep plans secret, This type of leak MUST STOP.


I understand that everyone will do as they wish, but I (no, I'm not an Apple employee, or stock holder) ask that we all be a little more responsible for what we say (write).

Personally, I think it's an excellent idea, but a horrible leak.

* 'Allen', no disrespect was intended toward you. If this was made up, then we've given this far more credibility than it deserves. If this is true, and you've leaked something you shouldn't, then, in my opinion, this was very poor judgment.
post #55 of 390
[quote]Originally posted by hir:
<strong>Glove sounds like a very good idea for now, though if Apple does implement this, it would only be temporary until they reach critical mass in market share. Software sales are pure profit once they go GM. This revenue is too significant to give up indefinitely.
</strong><hr></blockquote>
Actually, OS sales aren't that big a peice of Apple's pie, relative to hardware sales. Giving up a few million dollars in OS sales, would make sense long term if it could help generate hardware sales enough to at least balance the lost OS revenue. Getting people/corporations to buy and install the hardware is Apple's biggest challenge and their final goal. So, even if Glove only results in enough of an increase in hardware sales to make up for the lost OS sales, it is worth it to get the hardware in the door. Once a beachhead is established, it can be advanced. Personnaly, I think it would result in hardware sales increases that would more than make up for lost OS revenue, would would be a benefit all on it's own.

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post #56 of 390
Apple has no excuse not to do Glove, at least for now.

Do people think Lucida will have a hard drive if Apple makes it?

It'll be the iPod of video. Shoot, store, and watch anytime. With a hard drive it can store files, no stupid media to deal with, and fast, plus you can store other stuff on it. You just need cash. I really have to get good job this summer!
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post #57 of 390
Slightly OT but ...

[quote] MS-SQL has (or is going to) processor based licensing (what the f*&$? <hr></blockquote>

You think thats bad? Check out oracle pricing some time ... They charge based on:
1) Number of servers running oracle (duh)
2) Amt. of processors in each server
3) Speed of the processors (!)

Which means, you pay a hell of a lot more for oracle, on higher end hardware. Sure it'll run faster, but it won't be oracle's doing, it'll be the hardware! We run our oracle database on an old 360Mhz UltraSparcII chip ... very cheap! (and performance is not bad for the limited amount of use it gets).
post #58 of 390
[ 05-24-2002: Message edited by: Mithral ]</p>
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post #59 of 390
[RANT Mode: Initialized}
Okay, Me, Ive got some issues with your post.
[quote]Originally posted by Me:
<strong>
3) If this is truly under discussion at Apple, then this info leak will/has cause(d) a great deal of harm. It could even shelve the plan.</strong><hr></blockquote>
How very interesting -- you fret about Allen's possible Glove disinformation and the negative repercussions of FUD (quite legitimately, I might add), and then you go spread some FUD of your own: "There was a dream that was Glove. You could only whisper it. Anything more than a whisper, and it would vanish. And I fear it will not survive... (not your exact quote, but the same idea, plus a little dramatic flair)

[quote]<strong>Leaks on Strategic plans cause FAR more harm than "Will the next Mac have 133 or 266 DDR...".[ /qb]<hr></blockquote>

Yes, yes, yes. Wrong. Here we are again with something everybody knows, but that, regrettably, has no basis. How is a strategy leak so much more damaging? I fail to see how a leak on a strategic plan is any better or worse for Apple than Dorsal posting impressions of prototype hardware. We all know that Intels strategy is to jack up clockspeed and trick consumers into believing the MHz Myth. Does that make their strategy any less effective?

Fact is, Allens leak wont shelve the project, and it wont change anything for Apple. If Glove exists, then Apple will make a decision on whether the strategy makes good business sense in the current business climate. The only way a leak at this point would be damaging is if the ELEMENT OF SURPRISE were somehow key to Glove working. Given Apples licensing approach with OSX Server, I think its safe to assume that the Surprise! factor is pretty much gone. If Apple decides that Glove is a good strategy, itll still be a good strategy even if word gets out early. Knowing the specs of the new PowerBook two weeks in advance doesnt make them any slower once they finally arrive.
[quote][qb]* 'Allen', no disrespect was intended toward you. If this was made up, then we've given this far more credibility than it deserves. If this is true, and you've leaked something you shouldn't, then, in my opinion, this was very poor judgment.</strong><hr></blockquote>
Hmmm you spend half of your post basically calling him an irresponsible snitch who has sabotaged Apples fragile, last, best hope for market domination, and then you insist that no disrespect was intended. I guess you were merely trying to make an example of him for the good of all AI. What??

I guess my real problem, Me, is that you presume to know Allens business better than Allen does. Allen can post what he wants, and trumpeting the tune of FUD doesnt make your calls for censorship any more compelling. Allens ideas are good ones, and AI would be worse off if he hadnt posted them.
[quote]<strong>
I understand that everyone will do as they wish, but I (no, I'm not an Apple employee, or stock holder) ask that we all be a little more responsible for what we say (write). </strong><hr></blockquote>

Yes, lets.


-mithral
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post #60 of 390
[quote]Originally posted by Aquatik:
<strong>Apple has no excuse not to do Glove, at least for now.

Do people think Lucida will have a hard drive if Apple makes it?

It'll be the iPod of video. Shoot, store, and watch anytime. With a hard drive it can store files, no stupid media to deal with, and fast, plus you can store other stuff on it. You just need cash. I really have to get good job this summer!</strong><hr></blockquote>

It just hit me. QT6 is just about due. With the MPEG4 technology in it, you could pack a tremendous amount of quality video onto a 10GB drive. Mmm...the coincedences are coalescing into something with definate drool factor. *slurp!*
post #61 of 390
My bet:

Glove = [i]internal codename for Xserve unlimited client policy[/I

Lucida= internal codename for Quartz Extreme.

Underwater camera? Can't i just stick my PalmPix in a zip lock baggy?

As for the poster's claim regarding the free OS license, after much thought, I think this will be the quickest way to double-digit marketshare. Apple could keep prices higher for hardware and level the playing field.

Wouldn't it be great if in 10 years Microsoft's core business was Mac apps?

We can dream.

MSKR

[ 05-24-2002: Message edited by: Masker ]</p>
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post #62 of 390
If any of you follow Slashdot, there have been a lot of threads over there lately about how Microsoft has been getting its *** kicked with this new licensing scheme. Linux is making some serious inroads in schools, which probably worries Apple as much as it does Microsoft.

The 1 license thing is a great idea. It will hit Microsoft right where it hurts, and the one-two punch with the XServe puts them very well positioned to recapture education and make a decent entrance into business.

Times are changing. Microsoft (although they have $40 billion in the bank) is starting to look cornered in their key market segment. Now if we could only do something about MS Office...

On the digital camera side, I would like to see Apple reenter this market. Nobody is doing it right yet (Firewire, GB harddrive). Most digital cameras out there these days have serious storage limitations.

I think they should use the new 20 GB drive (slightly larger form factor, but that's okay for a camera) as it will give them the ability to store 5000 photos and several hours of MPEG4 video. It doesn't just connect to iPhoto, it connects to iMovie and iDVD. Sure, it costs $1000 or so, but this thing is huge. We're talking about the other part of the digital hub. Steve keeps talking about the ability for people to create video. This would be a hugely important piece of that puzzle.

They should use the new Foveon (sp?) chip set. Incredible technology, much higher megapixel counts at much lower prices. That's a company I would invest in if they were public for sure.

Both rumours are extremely exciting. Go AAPL!

:-)
post #63 of 390
btw, for those thinking that there's no way apple would make "lucida," please remember the feeling youhad when you first heard about the "ipod" the day before release...

lemme guess... something along the lines of "an mp3 player?!? why would apple do that??? that makes no sense with all the other mp3 players out there. and ipod? what the hell kinda name is 'ipod'?!?"

remember that? well, don't put ANYthing past apple anymore...
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post #64 of 390
[quote]Originally posted by Telomar:
<strong>

Underwater camera design isn't a small engineering task. It isn't the hardest task but it isn't a small one. I'd be more inclined to say Apple set out to create a durable digital device than target an "explosive" market like diving. Even having come from Australia I have to say that isn't a huge market.</strong><hr></blockquote>

There were stories to that effect on /. and Mac/ earlier this month.
post #65 of 390
[quote]Originally posted by hmurchison:
<strong>People Unlimited Licenses are Licenses to access the Server and do not necessarily denote an entire OS. Think about it this way sure you could purchase and XServe with Unlimited CL's but that doesn't mean your legion of Beige G3's have OSX running on them. This is very significant and I applaud Apple for not following MicroSiths moneygrubbing ways!</strong><hr></blockquote>

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't MacOS X Server allow net-booting? Wouldn't this mean that, in theory, the unlimited license that comes with XServe would net-boot an unlimited number of macs?
post #66 of 390
[quote]Originally posted by rok:
<strong>btw, for those thinking that there's no way apple would make "lucida," please remember the feeling youhad when you first heard about the "ipod" the day before release... </strong><hr></blockquote>

Absolutely! And don't forget the big pro camera to follow, codenamed Lucida Grande.

SkullMac: From what I gather, the number of clients an XServe can NetBoot should be limited only by the capabilities of the hardware and the bandwidth of the network.
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post #67 of 390
If I were to make a camera, I would include a 128 MB or larger RAM cache so I could snap ten large six megapixel photos in a one second.

This would be especially useful to counter the slowness and the latency in a camera based around a HDD...
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post #68 of 390
[quote]Originally posted by Eugene:
<strong>If I were to make a camera, I would include a 128 MB or larger RAM cache so I could snap ten large six megapixel photos in a one second.

This would be especially useful to counter the slowness and the latency in a camera based around a HDD...</strong><hr></blockquote>

that's a great idea.
post #69 of 390
I want to chime in too.

First on "Glove". Let's just understand this. It's actually pretty meaningless to most consumers as they only own one computer. It's also pretty low risk to Apple, because they just need to make sure that the software upgrade requires upgraded hardware, so they only lose out on the very newest machines out in the marketplace in large installations. The pitch itself is great to schools and corporations though.
I don't think Glove is too expensive, but I also don't think it makes eunuchs (prounounced unix) out of MS either.

Now, Lucinda we have a little less info about. However, I'll buy tomorrow any combination high quality digital video/digital still camera with firewire for still image transfer and large storage capability, whether its submersible or not. If this thing plugs into the kind of home theatre devices rumoured at The Register as well we'll start to really recognize that Apple is not only a hardware company, but a hardware company that specializes in hardware that works well together.
post #70 of 390
[quote]Originally posted by Telomar:
If I recall correctly Educational institutions are actually required to purchase XP licenses for every piece of hardware. That is to say if you have 500 Macs and 500 PCs you have to purchase 1000 licenses.

Can't remember where I saw that now.
<hr></blockquote>

Maybe you're thinking of

<a href="http://www.theregister.co.uk/content/59/25179.html" target="_blank">this article at The Register</a> about wacky Windows licensing.
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post #71 of 390
so this is where everyone is today...
post #72 of 390
[quote]granted, be could be lying about it, but if i had inside info and was worried about being "tracked" i think my screen name would be somehting like, oh, i don't know Stroszek? <hr></blockquote>


Conversely, if his name is "Stroszek," it makes sense for a plainer name. <img src="graemlins/bugeye.gif" border="0" alt="[Skeptical]" />
post #73 of 390
Glove would certainly make sys-admins in an all-mac shop/school, etc. very happy. It simplifies things greatly if all machines are running the exact same OS version. If by upgrading even only one machine, they can get the latest OS and legally install it on all the machines without buying licences for every one, that would be great. It could also lead to a shift in way of thinking in many large companies. Many companies now upgrade all machines and OSs at essentially the same time. With Glove there would be much less hesitation to upgrade machines in particular departments as the upgrade is justifiable.

The only problem I see with Glove is that while it would increase marketshare, I think that they would make this a limited-time scheme. It only pays for itself as long as market share continues to increase. So, while it could initially lead to a, say, doubling in market share and pay for itself (and then some) in hardware sales, once this growth in sales starts to level off, it will no longer pay for itself.

So, as a short term strategy, I see it as very viable and probably a great idea.
post #74 of 390
[quote]Originally posted by Tulkas:
<strong>
Actually, OS sales aren't that big a peice of Apple's pie, relative to hardware sales. Giving up a few million dollars in OS sales, would make sense long term if it could help generate hardware sales enough to at least balance the lost OS revenue. Getting people/corporations to buy and install the hardware is Apple's biggest challenge and their final goal. So, even if Glove only results in enough of an increase in hardware sales to make up for the lost OS sales, it is worth it to get the hardware in the door. Once a beachhead is established, it can be advanced. Personnaly, I think it would result in hardware sales increases that would more than make up for lost OS revenue, would would be a benefit all on it's own.</strong><hr></blockquote>

While software sales only constituted about 9% of their revenue stream in their <a href="http://a1200.g.akamai.net/7/1200/51/a647ad6c62f01b/www.apple.com/pr/pdf/q202data_sum.pdf" target="_blank">Q2 2001, Q1 2002, Q2 2002 financial summary</a>, software is much, much higher margin than hardware. Established software often has around 85% margins, whereas even Apple's high-margin hardware probably has margins of around 15% on average. Their high end products have higher margins but don't sell nearly as well going by the average price in their summary: PowerMacs averaged $1815, PowerBooks were $2224, iBooks were $1276.60 [iMacs include G3 and G4, so the $1204 figure is a bit misleading]. So while software is a small part of their revenues, it is probably near half of their profit stream as 15% margin on hardware and 85% of software gives software 54% of total profits. Regardless of the percentage, if you take away software sales Apple would have had a loss of ninety-three million dollars instead of a profit of forty million dollars.

I'm not saying that I don't see Apple moving towards a "glove" strategy, I'm only saying to not underestimate the importance of their software sales to them. They will most likely never make the OS free. If they do, they will have added much more additional software to their line up. Based solely off of their financial statements and standard assumptions about margins if Apple were to go one way or the other, they would be better off going with software instead of hardware. One can reasonably estimate that they receive a third to just over a half of their profits from software while requiring a substantially smaller capitol investment. Remember when Apple lost a billion dollars one year? That was not from software being stuck in the sales channels, I assure you. Nothing like an interesting rumor to get me writing on some tangential information.

As for the camera, well, unless it's got the features of an XL-1 at a lesser price I'm not too interested. There's still nothing in the digital realm for the same price that beats a single good Swiss or German lens shining light on film.

[ 05-24-2002: Message edited by: percolate ]</p>
post #75 of 390
Actually, according to the last financial conference call, margins are currently around 27% for hardware.

And since consumers are still the *major* factor in Apple's customer base, with 1-2 computers each, the 'losses' due to this would be minimal until the number of installed machines at large (&gt;100) institutions vastly outnumbered the consumer base.

In the meantime, the hardware sales would *MORE* than make up for it.

Edit: Further looking at the numbers...

133M$ from software and 'other'. This 'other' is going to include a lot of non-OS sales, but for now we'll assume it is all inclusive.

1209M$ from hardware.

27% * 1209M$ = 363.43M$

85% * 133M$ = 113.05M$

So even if your 85% is correct (and I think it's way high), software only accounts for 113.05/476.48 = 23.7% of profits, not 54% as you claimed.

Besides, assume Apple sells 100 machines that they otherwise would not have, at an average price of $1630, given your above numbers. That's 27% * 100 * 1630 = 44.01k$.

Upgrade for them, normally, would be 0.85 * 100 * 100 = 8.5k$. Instead, it's $100.

They 'lose' 8.4k$, but *gain* an initial 44k$. Net result: 35.6k$ for every 100 units sold, on average. Granted, these are assuming new sales to institutions that otherwise wouldn't have bought them, but I think that averaging $356 on every machine sold is better than $0, don't you? And, given the current OS upgrade cycles, that's going to come to two years worth of Macs being used. Two to three years is a good upgrade cycle for *hardware* in many places... so repeat. (Even if they wait a year, it's still $256 per machine sold, net.)

I fail to see the problem.

[ 05-24-2002: Message edited by: Kickaha ]</p>
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post #76 of 390
Be nice if they included Appleworks in that too (including AW for Windows), at least for education. That'd be a way at least elementary schools to keep MS out of the classroom. If MS Office is installed on all the Macs the district's more likely to go for one of those crazy licensing deals the reg talked about. And once your paying for Windows for the machine anyway the bottom line impact of Apple giving away OS upgrades becomes less apparent.

One thing I wonder bout is how the antitrust case plays into this. One of the remedies on the table is requiring MS to make Office for Mac and Linux for a set period of time. If MS is hobbled from smacking back would that make Apple more willing to take a bold step like this?
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post #77 of 390
percolate, your software #s include sales of FCP, DVD studio pro and other software IN ADDITION to OSX... (QT pro, apple works, etc...) so cutting ALL of the software revenue would not even be close to accurate... I would assume that less then 30% of their software revenue stream is from OSX...
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post #78 of 390
Buck all that 'software revenue loss' talk. Think about it like this: Apple could just increase the price of the hardware to compensate. Imagine: if Apple introduced new hardware for 3499 instead of the as of late pricing of 2999, would we really complain? No, because it's new hardware and we're used to those prices anyways. So, what I'm saying is: they can raise the price of the hardware to compensate and we'd never know the difference; we'd just be excited that the 'Glove' rumor came true AND we had new hardware to play with.
post #79 of 390
[quote]Originally posted by Tom Mornini:
<strong>

OK. Take this rumor, Darwin x86, and x86 OS X nVidia drivers, mix in a little Jaguar, and add a dash of "we want marketshare."

I've always believed that OS X x86 existed, but I always thought it was "just in case." This makes it seem possible that Apple might release an x86 OS X!
</strong><hr></blockquote>


Hmmm...I actually think exactly the opposite now. I mean if Apple is really going to this kind of licensing scheme...then ported to commodity (non-Apple) hardware...they'd be out of business in about 6 months.

Just my $0.02.
post #80 of 390
[quote]Originally posted by Chris Cuilla:
<strong>they'd be out of business in about 6 months.</strong><hr></blockquote>

unless of course the liscensing scheme only applied to OS X on PPC and people had to pay through the nose for x86 OS X.... :eek:

but regardless this is NEVER going to happen...

[ 05-24-2002: Message edited by: Paul ]</p>
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