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Visionaries of the tech world who foresaw Apple's future - Page 2

post #41 of 105

Don't forget Bill Gates the visionary...  "640K ought to be enough for anybody."

post #42 of 105
Stop picking on John Dvorak, man. Leave him alone. He's a visionary.

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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post #43 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by Suddenly Newton View Post

Stop picking on John Dvorak, man. Leave him alone. He's a visionary.

...who is in dire need of better bifocals.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #44 of 105
Dvorak is the Rush Limbaugh of tech "journalism"!
post #45 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by mensmovement View Post
 

"Gates…spins."

 

mensmovement, are you trying to compete with DED? If this is an example of your best effort at satire, you don't stand a chance. Time for a new hobby…

post #46 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by mensmovement View Post

"Gates keen insight in "not wishing" that Microsoft had developed the iPad helped to spare the company from another disastrous "Zune" or "KIN," which might have been fatal, especially considering the financial hardship the company was already enduring from the spectacular failure of Surface, a netbook that could disassemble itself into a paperweight and an expensive, rubbery keyboard."


Microsoft has a market capitalization of $233.5 billion dollars. In other words, the "trouble" that Microsoft is allegedly in now is a rip-roaring steam of success compared to the real trouble that Apple was in for quite awhile, such as when Steve Jobs was forced out in the 1980s where he founded NeXT (failed venture) and in the 1990s when Microsoft invested $150 million in Apple to keep it from going under: 

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-12-09/worst-deal-ever-microsofts-apple-investment
Gates depicted it as an altruistic move, but it was likely done to keep the federal government from filing another anti-trust suit against Microsoft.

And as a corrective to the myth that Microsoft got rich by copying Apple, the truth is that Microsoft and Gates locked up the non-Apple PC business by providing MS-DOS to IBM for IBM's wildly successful PC line, and then propagating it to the IBM PC clones that IBM accidentally created. Microsoft got MS-DOS by getting 86-DOS from Seattle Computer Products. Seattle Computer Products got 86-DOS by porting CP/M from Digital Research. 

Also, Microsoft introduced a tablet computer in 1999, years before the I-Pad. It was merely a failure, as were plenty of new product ideas from Microsoft and Apple during the 1990s. 

Further, Microsoft Basic preceded AppleSoft Basic. Gates and Allen sold the predecessor to Microsoft Basic to a hardware company called MITS in 1976. It was Microsoft's first contract. AppleSoft Basic was not even the first Apple Basic: that was Integer Basic, which came along in 1977 for the Apple I. Apple copied Microsoft Basic for their own AppleSoft Basic for the Apple II. How do we know they copied it? Because Microsoft gave Microsoft Basic to Apple so they could do so. Microsoft's first hardware product? A card that allowed the Apple II to run business software, which was a critical market for any computer company in the late 70s/early 80s as the consumer market hadn't taken off yet. So had it not been for the critical early help that Microsoft gave Apple (giving them a far superior version of Basic to the one that Wozniak developed and giving them the ability to run business software) Apple never would have survived.

And oh yes, Microsoft's first iteration of Microsoft Word came out in 1983, and was written for their failed attempt at marketing a UNIX-based operating system, Xenix.

So basically none of the nonsense in this article concerning Microsoft is remotely true. And Apple certainly hopes not, because if Microsoft goes belly up, who is going to host Apple's vital I-Cloud product? Microsoft Azure does so for the most part now, with some redundancy being handled by Amazon AWS EC2. Just like the claim that Microsoft released Office for I-Pad first because of "internal sales data" showing that the only Android tablets that are selling are the $50 toys. The reality is that Office Mobile for Android already exists, and full blown Office for Android will come out later this year in order to compete with Google Docs.

It is one thing to write editorials, but to make claims that are incontrovertibly false is beyond the pale. Apple would never have been a viable company without Microsoft's software and hardware in the late 1970s, and Apple would probably have gone bankrupt without Microsoft's cash in the 1990s. That is the truth no matter how this author wants to deny it. This stuff is actually beyond the bizarre "I have never seen an Android tablet in the wild" claims (which if were true, no one would still make and sell them) or the "no one buys those Samsung tablets at Best Buy nonsense" (again, were it true, Best Buy would stop selling it just they have with a ton of other failed products). 

So just like Apple needed Microsoft yet again for their I-Cloud service because Apple lacks the ability to do it on their own, Microsoft is going to remain to provided critical assistance to Apple whenever they need it like they have in the past. Windows is dead/dying, but Microsoft can make as much money off the cloud and by solidifying their hold on enterprise software by accommodating every single major OS/manufacturer (yes, including Android and ChromeOS) instead of forcing everyone to try to use Windows. (And imagine if Natella figures out something innovative to do with the boatload of wasted potential that is XBox.) 

Bottom line: Microsoft, Google, Samsung et al aren't going anywhere no matter how many  yarns this fellow spins.

Gates's investment was a settlement of a lawsuit for stealing Apple's IP. Along with that he was to continue to make Office for the Mac. Although Apple could have used the money they were not on the verge of bankruptcy like so many have reported.
post #47 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by mensmovement View Post

"

Apple would never have been a viable company without Microsoft's software and hardware in the late 1970s


Err ... VisiCalc ... USCD Pascal ... Corvus Shared Hard Disk ...

From my personal experience:
  • Almost every enterprise in Silicon Valley bought Apple ][ computers. floppy drives, printers, etc. so they could run VisiCalc.* VisiCalc was largely used to bypass the long lead time (18-24 months) to get apps implemented by CIS (then Data Processing)
  • The UCSD Pascal programming language was far superior to BASIC for programming custom business applications and generalized apps such as database systems.
  • Corvus shared HDDs allowed larger/shared VisiCalc files and application files.


* Our clients included Apple, IBM, Fairchild Shlumberger, Applied Materials, Thorne EMI, Daimler Benz, Xerox, HP, various State and Local governments, Universities, School Districts. etc.

MicroSoft had nothing to do with any of this!
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"...The calm is on the water and part of us would linger by the shore, For ships are safe in harbor, but that's not what ships are for."
- Michael Lille -
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post #48 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by Maestro64 View Post
 

I never understood why the media and others do not go back and follow-up with these people and ask them to explain why they were completely wrong and why should anyone trust anything they have to say about the future.

 

It is like those people who run around saying the world is about to end and everyone need to prepare themselves for judgement day, that day has come and gone how many times in recent years and no on going back and ask these people to explain first why they were wrong and what happen and ask them why anyone should ever believe them going forward.

 

AI should attempt to get an interview with all these folks and ask them to explain themselves.

 

Someone actually did go back to Dvorak for an explanation of his iPhone predictions. Of course he claimed it was Apple’s fault because they didn’t provide him with an iPhone to review in advance. So he didn’t know the iPhone was, in fact, a revolutionary product. It was all Apple’s fault!

Dvorak also once tried to explain his grossly inaccurate predictions about Apple by claiming he enjoyed pushing the buttons of Apple fans by writing incendiary articles. You see, these guys can explain everything and it’s NEVER their fault or their ineptitude. 

post #49 of 105
What? No Rob Enderle?

- HCE
post #50 of 105
Dvorak has been a veritable Schrödinger's cat throughout his career, cooped up in a box isolated from any outside influence of reality. His possible exposure to some sort of toxic experiment has created a quantum paradox where Dvorak is perpetually both writing and wronging at the same time, an uncertainty that must be seen to be believed.

This has got to be the best piece of writing on this site! Thanks for the laughs, DED.
post #51 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by mcmach View Post

Congratulations on an article which is the very definition of sarcasam. Good read.

 

Good article - but I cannot fail to praise the good ol' Apple Death Knell Counter - priceless!!!

 

http://www.macobserver.com/tmo/death_knell

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post #52 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

^ post

Another from the cookie jar - thank you!
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post #53 of 105
Don't be too hard on Dvorak... I don't think he ever was anti-Apple, and was the rear-leaf columnist for MacUser back in the 90s. Lest anyone think I don't have a sense of humor, I get the point of this article... but in my opinion, Dvorak doesn't deserve the sarcasm quite as much as the other three.
post #54 of 105
Great article. Makes me think of The Macalope a little.
post #55 of 105
Haha it's April 1st and I can see how that applies to the first visionaries mentioned but then Dvorak in the finish? I guess he's just an April fool all year long when it comes to Apple. And to think one of his main goals was/is to get Apple fans bent out of shape with his comments when in reality he's completely bent out of shape himself.
post #56 of 105

I think Bill Gates, and other people who underestimated the iPad, underestimated the importance of mobility in opening up new applications for computers. Apple's Life on iPad videos show this. I wonder if people who are underestimating the impact of a wristwatch computer are making the same mistake?

post #57 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by ascii View Post

I think Bill Gates, and other people who underestimated the iPad, underestimated the importance of mobility in opening up new applications for computers. Apple's Life on iPad videos show this. I wonder if people who are underestimating the impact of a wristwatch computer are making the same mistake?

Bill Gates knew mobile computing was the wave of the future. His implementation of it is what was way off.
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post #58 of 105
Calling out Michael Dell and John Dvorak were spot on. I probably would have substituted Steve Balmer for Bill Gates. Balmer has made so many incredibly dumb Applehater comments over the years, but I suppose his retirement spared him!
post #59 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by DewMe View Post

I used to enjoy reading John Dvorak's articles in PC Magazine since way back and he even had an entertaining cable TV show for a while. I'll cut him some slack because he has had some good insight on the PC side of things over the years. But holy cow, when it comes to Apple he'd be best served by just staying as far away from that topic and subject matter as possible to avoid catastrophic buffoonery implosion (CBI). That would be an unfortunate end to an otherwise respectable career.

When it comes to seeing a market disrupter at work, John Dvorak can only see the tried and tired old way of doing things... That's why he's so good at seeing where Microsoft is slowly chugging away at things... The Apple train had left the station 14 years ago, Dvorak, Gates, and Ballmer were left behind and totally clueless that a way of doing things has changed...even while still waiting at the station after the rails and ties were ripped up as they stood there, ticket in hand.
"That (the) world is moving so quickly that iOS is already amongst the older mobile operating systems in active development today." — The Verge
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"That (the) world is moving so quickly that iOS is already amongst the older mobile operating systems in active development today." — The Verge
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post #60 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post

Bill Gates knew mobile computing was the wave of the future. His implementation of it is what was way off.

It was more then implementation that was way off.
"Microsoft has no taste." — Steve Jobs


If Microsoft made a table computer it would have battery-burning multi-tasking, run full windows and require a fan, be too big to fit on one's lap, Be so heavy the user would use it on a table, and ... oh wait!
Edited by Macky the Macky - 4/1/14 at 7:08pm
"That (the) world is moving so quickly that iOS is already amongst the older mobile operating systems in active development today." — The Verge
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"That (the) world is moving so quickly that iOS is already amongst the older mobile operating systems in active development today." — The Verge
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post #61 of 105
lol brilliant article!!
post #62 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by nathanimal View Post

I get the point of this article... but in my opinion, Dvorak doesn't deserve the sarcasm quite as much as the other three.

He deserves everything his pointy little head worked so hard to earn. As a wise man one observed, "It's not what you put in your mouth that corrupts you, it's what comes out of your mouth..."
"That (the) world is moving so quickly that iOS is already amongst the older mobile operating systems in active development today." — The Verge
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"That (the) world is moving so quickly that iOS is already amongst the older mobile operating systems in active development today." — The Verge
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post #63 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

Err ... VisiCalc ... USCD Pascal ... Corvus Shared Hard Disk ...

From my personal experience:
  • Almost every enterprise in Silicon Valley bought Apple ][ computers. floppy drives, printers, etc. so they could run VisiCalc.* VisiCalc was largely used to bypass the long lead time (18-24 months) to get apps implemented by CIS (then Data Processing)
  • The UCSD Pascal programming language was far superior to BASIC for programming custom business applications and generalized apps such as database systems.
  • Corvus shared HDDs allowed larger/shared VisiCalc files and application files.


* Our clients included Apple, IBM, Fairchild Shlumberger, Applied Materials, Thorne EMI, Daimler Benz, Xerox, HP, various State and Local governments, Universities, School Districts. etc.

MicroSoft had nothing to do with any of this!

I am totally familiar with this early history (except the part played by Corvus). The Apple ][ was the first affordable computer and VisiCalc made it a powerful number cruncher in its day. If Digital Research had gotten a 16-bit version of CP/M out about a year earlier (and not had an anal retentive lawyer), Microsoft would have been bypassed for DOS when IBM went shopping and the story of computing in the 1980s would have been totally different.

I wonder how many people know that the first IMB PC relied on the user to back up to a cassette tape drive... no Hard Disk planned for or I/O provided.
"That (the) world is moving so quickly that iOS is already amongst the older mobile operating systems in active development today." — The Verge
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"That (the) world is moving so quickly that iOS is already amongst the older mobile operating systems in active development today." — The Verge
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post #64 of 105
Nicely done, DED. Your snark was born for the start of April %u2014 but I can't see why you shouldn't do this more often. Truly an inspired piece.
post #65 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post

Bill Gates knew mobile computing was the wave of the future. His implementation of it is what was way off.

I think he still holds hope that people will eventually see that Windows 3.11 for Pen Computing is the future. lol.gif

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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post #66 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

His possible exposure to some sort of toxic experiment has created a quantum paradox where Dvorak is perpetually both writing and wronging at the same time, an uncertainty that must be seen to be believed.

 

This is probably one of the most clever, hilarious sentences I read in a long time!

 

I loved reading the iPhone death watch and it's amazing how many times Dvorak is featured on it.

post #67 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by mensmovement View Post
 

<RANT>

 

Another old poster in a new guise with an axe to grind against DED? Get in line...

post #68 of 105

I read somewhere that Michael Dell's statement had nowhere the glee or malice that we generally associate with it. It appears like he was pressed for his opinion and gave his honest opinion without trying to take a dig at anyone.

 

Realistically, no other company had anyone like Jobs, so there is no way anyone could have guessed what happened to Apple, besides Jobs himself.

post #69 of 105
This article is what I was looking at for a while to link at all Apple detractors.

Thank you Daniel.
post #70 of 105
this article is irony... (my hat is off to Daniel Eran Dilger because it is vety difficult to use irony properly, in a literary sense!...)

A definition of irony from Wikipedia... (quoted from "the compass of irony", via wikipedia)
Quote:
Verbal, dramatic, and situational irony are often used for emphasis in the assertion of a truth. The ironic form of simile, used in sarcasm, and some forms of litotes can emphasize one's meaning by the deliberate use of language which states the opposite of the truth, denies the contrary of the truth, or drastically and obviously understates a factual connection.[2]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irony

[2]. http://books.google.co.uk/books/about/The_Compass_of_Irony.html?id=7PsNAAAAQAAJ

Edited by haar - 4/2/14 at 7:45am
post #71 of 105
Great article, Dvorak is always good for a laugh
post #72 of 105
John Dvoark is a freakin' idiot. He's always against anything Apple. He always has been, even when it was on ZDTV/TechTV. Every time after a MacWorld he'd always downplay anything Apple announced as something that won't pan out and people won't want to use it when nearly every time (if not every time), it was the exact opposite.

Now, he spouts off on Leo Laporte's TWiT network. I think Leo only keeps him around because he's a friend.

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post #73 of 105

You should audition for a part with HBO. The amount of fellatio you perform in this article would make a pornographer blush.

post #74 of 105

Do they have Dvorak on for comic relief?  I know it's fashionable to go against the grain on everything because it make you look like you know more than everyone else, but these are all HUGE swings-and-misses.  Funny read, though.

post #75 of 105
AI dredging up and bashing what someone said 30 years ago is identical to Fox News' around the clock bashing of Barrack Obama.
post #76 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by Macky the Macky View Post
I am totally familiar with this early history (except the part played by Corvus). The Apple ][ was the first affordable computer and VisiCalc made it a powerful number cruncher in its day. If Digital Research had gotten a 16-bit version of CP/M out about a year earlier (and not had an anal retentive lawyer), Microsoft would have been bypassed for DOS when IBM went shopping and the story of computing in the 1980s would have been totally different.

 

Indeed. I read that IBM sent two reps out to Digital Research to discuss using CP/M rather than going with Gates, but when they got there, the founder (Gary Kildall) was more interested in flying his personal plane than meeting with "suits" that day.

 

This page doesn't have the "I'd rather be flying my plane" anecdote but does fill in some of the blanks about how diff things COULD have been....

 

Quote from http://landley.net/history/mirror/cpm/history.html:
.....there is still a remnant of CP/M left in the PC world [in the 1990's]: all the various flavours of DOS running on 80x86 machines are direct descendents of CP/M and this is the story of how it happened:

 

The task force at IBM that designed and developed the original PC was called Project Chess. By the middle of 1980 they were talking to Microsoft about the design of their new machine and its software, particularly the BASIC which Microsoft were going to provide.

 

IBM also contacted Gary Kildall to ask about using CP/M-86, a new version of the operating system that Digital Research were developing to run on the Intel 8086 processor. For a variety of reasons Gary Kildall was not interested so IBM kept talking to Microsoft and by September that year they had formalized their plans to work together. 

 

Microsoft were going to provide both the BASIC, which they had done many times before for other companies, and the operating system, which they had never done before!

 

Now, earlier in the year Seattle Computer Products who produced an 8086 computer kit hired Tim Patterson to create an operating system to run on their machine. Digital Research were slow in producing CP/M-86 and SCP thought it was hurting sales of their computer, so Tim wrote a system with the look-and-feel of CP/M for the new machine and called it the Quick and Dirty OS, QDOS.

 

SCP started shipping QDOS in August and they showed it to Microsoft in September when Microsoft modified the BASIC for the machine.  So, there right under Microsoft's nose was an operating system just at the time when they needed one. In October Paul Allen from Microsoft contacted SCP and for just $50,000 bought the rights to sell QDOS, without telling SCP that it was for IBM.

 

Microsoft hired Tim Patterson and went on to convert QDOS to run on IBM's new machine. They even persuaded IBM to let them sell copies of the operating system separate from the PC. Thus were born PC-DOS, the IBM owned version, and MS-DOS, the Microsoft owned version.

 

Eventually Digital Research produced CP/M-86 for IBM PC in 1982 and finally converted it to DR-DOS in 1988. Thus all the major variants of DOS - PC-DOS, MS-DOS, and DR-DOS - are all directly descended from CP/M.

 

Digital Research were bought by Novell in 1991, and then Novell sold the rights to the software to Caldera in 1997.

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post #77 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

the spectacular failure of Surface, a netbook that could disassemble itself into a paperweight and an expensive, rubbery keyboard.

The Surface is no more a paperweight than the iPad. It runs apps, just like the iPad, it can browse the web just like the iPad. You can play music (10 hours a month of full-length songs for free), watch movies, transfer your files directly via USB stick or hard drive and doesn't require any proprietary software to do so. It doesn't even run a full desktop OS (and before you start, neither does the iPad) and is therefore in no way like a netbook. And if you want to talk about the one that does run full Windows, the Surface Pro 2 has been widely praised and is closer in specs to a high-end MacBook Air than a netbook. And if someone wants to complain about 1/2 pounds difference they're either a professional mountaineer or they need to get off their lazy boy and exercise a bit. Maybe try lifting a few flashlights or something.

 

And do you mean the "expensive rubbery keyboard" of which Apple is developing their own version? (Oh and by the way, the Touch Cover was widely praised, even here http://forums.appleinsider.com/t/174488/apple-exploring-new-ipad-smart-case-with-integrated-multitouch-keyboard). Also, I have actually used the Touch Cover and it is in no way "rubbery". It's covered in a felt-like material and is actually quite rigid.

 

Please, go back to the actually intellectual and well-researched rants.


Edited by Emes - 4/2/14 at 9:43pm
post #78 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by Suddenly Newton View Post


I think he still holds hope that people will eventually see that Windows 3.11 for Pen Computing is the future. lol.gif


Haha. It's all very fun to laugh at Gates, but remember: the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation is the largest transparently operated charitable foundation in the world. The foundation allows benefactors access to information regarding how its money is being spent, unlike other major charitable organizations such as the Wellcome Trust. As of 2007, Bill and Melinda Gates were the second-most generous philanthropists in America, having given over $28 billion to charity; the couple plan to eventually donate 95% of their wealth to charity.

 

The Gates Foundation has quickly become a major influence upon global health; the approximately US$800 million that the foundation gives every year for global health approaches the annual budget of the United Nations World Health Organization (193 nations), and is comparable to the funds given to fight infectious disease by the United States Agency for International Development. The Global Health Program's significant grants include:

The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria: Over $1.3 billion donated as of 2012.

Polio eradication: The Foundation provides 17% (US$86 million in 2006) of the world budget for the attempted eradication of poliomyelitis (polio).

The GAVI Alliance: The foundation gave the GAVI Alliance (formerly the “Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunisation”) a donation of US$750 million on January 25, 2005.

Children's Vaccine Program: The Children's Vaccine Program, run by the Program for Appropriate Technology in Health (PATH), received a donation of US$27 million to help vaccinate against Japanese encephalitis on December 9, 2003.

University of Washington Department of Global Health: The foundation provided approximately US$30 million for the foundation of the new Department of Global Health at the University of Washington in Seattle. The donation promoted three of the Foundation's target areas: education, Pacific Northwest and global health. The foundation also lead a study to increase access to high education globally.

HIV Research: The foundation has donated a grand total of US$287 million to various HIV/AIDS researchers. The money was split between sixteen different research teams across the world, on the condition that they share their findings with one another.

 

Just to name a few.

 

If you want to grace yourself with reading about the rest of his incredibly generous and life-saving endeavors, go here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_%26_Melinda_Gates_Foundation

 

You didn't see Steve Jobs doing that kind of thing.

 

Oh, and he's also a Knight.

post #79 of 105
Another D.E.D. home run... I was laughing out loud reading this article. Well done, sir. Well done.
post #80 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by Emes View Post
 

The Surface is no more a paperweight than the iPad...

 

...It doesn't even run a full desktop OS (and before you start, neither does the iPad) and is therefore in no way like a netbook. 

 

Please, go back to the actually intellectual and well-researched rants.

 

So how does the surface compare to the 64bit desktop class architecture Apple's A7 ARM based CPU brings to the game?

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