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Earnings preview: Wall Street expects flat March quarter, awaiting new products in late 2014

post #1 of 84
Thread Starter 
With no major new products launched in the just-concluded March quarter, analysts on Wall Street don't expect big things from Apple when the company reports its earnings on Wednesday, generally projecting for revenue to be about flat with the same period from a year ago.

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Investor expectations cited by analyst Maynard Um of Wells Fargo Securities suggest that Apple will report sales of $43.6 billion for the quarter, which spans the months of January through March. He has pegged the average earnings per share estimate at $10.15 for the quarter.

Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray has generally similar numbers, with his research suggesting Wall Street is projecting revenue of $43.5 billion, and earnings per share of $10.17.
A year ago, the March 2013 quarter marked the first time in a decade that Apple saw its profits decrease.
Both analysts believe Apple will beat those expectations, riding stronger-than-expected sales of both the iPhone and iPad. Munster's "bogies" for the March quarter call for iPhone sales between 38 million and 39 million, and iPad sales of between 20 million and 22 million. Um, meanwhile, sees sales of 39 million iPhones and 21 million iPads.

It may have been a tough quarter for the Mac, as Munster believes sales may have dipped 6 percent year over year to 3.7 million units in March. Um's projections are slightly stronger at 3.85 million units.

It was during this same quarter a year ago that Apple saw its profits fall for the first time in a decade. Despite record second quarter sales of $43.6 billion, Apple saw its profits fall about 18 percent to $9.5 billion, or $10.09 per diluted share.

Apple sold 37.4 million iPhones, 19.5 million iPads, and just under 4 million Macs in the March 2013 quarter. This year, iPhone and iPad sales are expected by Wall Street to rise slightly, while Mac sales are projected to fall.

Analysts are also expecting Apple to announce a slight increase to its share buyback program and quarterly dividend this week. Apple currently pays $3.05 per share to investors each quarter, while the company has already repurchased billions of dollars of its own shares as part of an ongoing program.

Apple will report its March quarter results on Wednesday after markets close, and AppleInsider will have full, live coverage.

Looking ahead to the June quarter, current Wall Street estimates call for Apple to see $38.3 billion in revenue, with gross margins at 36.5 percent, according to Munster.
post #2 of 84
Its not shaping up to be a blockbuster year for Apple at all. I may be a big fan and often apologist, but I do not make excuses for no new products since Oct 2013.

Furthermore, its not possible for Apple to release everything that people are predicting this year. Not only do they never release the full boat of rumored products that arise during the year, but the amount on the table this year is insane: iWatch, AppleTV, iOS 8, OS 10.10, 4.7" iPhone, updated iPads, Retina MacBook Air, overdue Mac mini, iMac spec bump....

Its not all happening before the end of this year, and as much as I wish it would.
post #3 of 84
with Apple going down at most of the earnings, lot of people are going for the exit.
post #4 of 84

"With no major new products launched in the just-concluded March quarter, analysts on Wall Street don't expect big things from Apple when the company reports its earnings on Wednesday,"

 

Than WTF was Google's earnings last week?

 

Google reported $5 earnings per share and Apple is expected to report over DOUBLE that with a share price lower.

 

In what planet is $10 < $5?

 

Google reported GAAP profits of $5.00 EPS vs $4.97 last year.  A 1% increase.  WTF.

post #5 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

"With no major new products launched in the just-concluded March quarter, analysts on Wall Street don't expect big things from Apple when the company reports its earnings on Wednesday,"

Than WTF was Google's earnings last week?

Google reported $5 earnings per share and Apple is expected to report over DOUBLE that with a share price lower.

In what planet is $10 < $5?

Google reported GAAP profits of $5.00 EPS vs $4.97 last year.  A 1% increase.  WTF.

Further,
if anyone actually looked at Google's fiscal 2011 earnings and then at its fiscal 2013 earnings they would see that Google's earnings in 2013 were 25% higher than in 2011.
If anyone actually looked at Apple's fiscal 2011 earnings and then at its fiscal 2013 earnings they would see that Apple's earnings in 2013 were 40% higher than in 2011.

Why this comparison? Because Jobs died at the end of Apple's 2011 fiscal year and a lot of people thought Apple would do poorly without him. Many of those same people speak of Google having potential for higher growth than Apple. But this evidence shows things aren't working out this way.
I have enough money to last the rest of my life. Unless I buy something. - Jackie Mason
Never own anything that poops. - RadarTheKat
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I have enough money to last the rest of my life. Unless I buy something. - Jackie Mason
Never own anything that poops. - RadarTheKat
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post #6 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by RadarTheKat View Post


Further,
if anyone actually looked at Google's fiscal 2011 earnings and then at its fiscal 2013 earnings they would see that Google's earnings in 2013 were 25% higher than in 2011.
If anyone actually looked at Apple's fiscal 2011 earnings and then at its fiscal 2013 earnings they would see that Apple's earnings in 2013 were 40% higher than in 2011.

Why this comparison? Because Jobs died at the end of Apple's 2011 fiscal year and a lot of people thought Apple would do poorly without him. Many of those same people speak of Google having potential for higher growth than Apple. But this evidence shows things aren't working out this way.

 

Agree.  Its total BS that Google gets forgiven for having slow earnings growth while Apple gets crushed.

 

But this is Wall Street 101.  Stock Rotation.  I expect Wall Street to rotate out of Google and into Apple in 6-12 months.  I won't be surprised to see Google at $400 and Apple at $650 by the end of the year after Wall Street fleeces enough of Main Street to buy Google at $550+

post #7 of 84
Originally Posted by herbapou View Post
with Apple going down at most of the earnings, lot of people are going for the exit.

 

The 4Tst Annual FUDge Bake-off!

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply
post #8 of 84
It is never enough, nor will it ever be enough money for these clowns. Even if we gave those investors and the wall street crooks printing presses from the treasury department as well as all the ink and paper they could very use they would still bitch about not having enough money.
Between 07 and 08 the feds gave the financial markets over 18 trillion dollars to reconcile the debt THEY created on the economy. And where was all that debt?
ON EXCEL SPREADSHEETS.
They made off with 18 plus trillion in chedda; yet still complain that they ain't got no damn money!!!!!!
QE was 85 billion a month or 1 trillion 20 billion a year. Free, socialized money that is still being pumped into the hands of the rich each month.
And that ain't enough either.
SMDH!
post #9 of 84

I've made the mistake of taking AAPL into earnings before, and I won't be doing that anymore, since I've gotten burned a few times. I might as well go to Las Vegas and play roulette or something. At least there you get served free drinks by chicks with nice boobs. If somebody is uber long AAPL and has been long for a long time, then obviously they don't have to worry about it.

post #10 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

 

Agree.  Its total BS that Google gets forgiven for having slow earnings growth while Apple gets crushed.

 

But this is Wall Street 101.  Stock Rotation.  I expect Wall Street to rotate out of Google and into Apple in 6-12 months.  I won't be surprised to see Google at $400 and Apple at $650 by the end of the year after Wall Street fleeces enough of Main Street to buy Google at $550+

 

Yeah that could very well be true.  Google just gets some love because some of the far-in-the-future stuff that they're working on (self-driving cars, contact lenses that can monitor glucose levels), plus the robotics purchases and Glass.  While Apple makes money hand over fist, they haven't announced any new product lines in awhile.  They're the most profitable company on the planet, have the highest valuation, and the most valuable brand.  "No new products" is about the only thing that you can complain about.  Cook alluded to some new stuff this year, so I bet we'll see something cool come from them before the summer's out.

post #11 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

 

Agree.  Its total BS that Google gets forgiven for having slow earnings growth while Apple gets crushed.

 

But this is Wall Street 101.  Stock Rotation.  I expect Wall Street to rotate out of Google and into Apple in 6-12 months.  I won't be surprised to see Google at $400 and Apple at $650 by the end of the year after Wall Street fleeces enough of Main Street to buy Google at $550+

There have been so many comments in past comparing the Apple vs Google vs Amazon in earnings, but I hope regular person understands that valuation of the company comes from PEG Ratio (Price/Earnings to Growth ratio) and not PE ratio (Price to Earnings ratio) as everyone seems to think.

This is how Financial institutions  does valuation of the stock.

There is enough information their including wikipedia if anyone wants to read on it.

 

If you compare Growth for Google in the two April quarters for year 2014 and 2013 you will see this from their reports.

"Google Inc. reported consolidated revenues of $15.42 billion for the quarter ended March 31, 2014, an increase of 19% compared to the first quarter of 2013. "

"Google Inc. reported consolidated revenues of $13.97 billion for the quarter ended March 31, 2013, an increase of 31% compared to the first quarter of 2012"

This shows 31% and 19% growth (See PEG Ratio) for first quarter for 2013 and 2014.

 

Now if you compare same of that to Apple, Apple is expecting same revenue for this quarter as for the year 2013 last quarter.

So this year, Analyst are expecting Apple to have zero growth in revenue (Bring again this to PEG factor)

For last year, this quarter, "For the quarter ended March 30, 2013. The Company posted quarterly revenue of $43.6 billion compared to revenue of $39.2 billion", Which is about 10% growth.

So Google got, 31% and 19% growth, while Apple got 10% and 0%(Expected) growth in those two quarters.

 

This is the exact reason Amazon has such a higher valuation, because their Growth is even higher then Google.

Now if you compare PEG ratio for Apple vs Google vs Amazon, you may see the reason why some companies have very high valuation.

 

Why did Apple stock reached $700 two years ago, you guessed it right this time. Two years ago Apple's revenue growth was in mid 20's and that's why it's stock was valued $700. (There was growth factor for Apple which is missing now)

Analysts don't look at Stock based onon their love/hate relationship like us.

 

Now as far as Apple is concerned and if We talk about reality rather then thinking from love/hate point of view, you will see that Apple has already saturated high end US/Europe/Japan market. Other markets like Asia, Africa, LATAM prefers to go low end phones for their own reasons.

 

For Apple to have higher valuation, they need to find new stream of revenue, which will bring growth back to Apple and in turn more valuation.

Again Whenever you see the stock valuation, think in terms on PEG (Growth) and not just PE.

 

I have big investments in both Google and Apple from some time and I am loosing my patients with Apple too. If Apple will not show new stream of revenue by end of year, I am planning to exit my positions as well but I just have hope that they will bring something new which can bring growth back.

 

 


Edited by shahhet2 - 4/21/14 at 8:33am
post #12 of 84

I bought at $74/share and am playing long. Sure I could have sold at $704/share but I didn't. Why? Because I believed that Apple did not make a misstep and wall street (in their idiotic wisdom) thought they did. Apple is still raking in profits and WS is penalizing them for it. Why? I have no idea.

 

Now the fact is that WWDC is only a month away. For those of you who can't wait until then... go take your stock elsewhere and quit complaining here. You can complain to Google when the gravy train of overinflated stock based on advertising takes a dump on you.

post #13 of 84

For an operations guy, Tim Cook's product update/launch timetable is totally puzzling.

 

They're all seemingly bunched in the 4th quarter of the calendar year for 2014 too. The problem is, consumer wallets have already seen nine months go by. Moreover, the global supply chain is frantically working its b*** off for everyone for the holiday season, increasing the chances of delays and stock-outs.

 

I could understand this happening in a transition year -- 2013 -- as Cook and his new team were being put in place and settling in, but it would have been nice to see some type of normalcy return in 2014.

 

Not impressed. Hopefully, 2015. :\

post #14 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by pmz View Post

Its not shaping up to be a blockbuster year for Apple at all. I may be a big fan and often apologist, but I do not make excuses for no new products since Oct 2013.

Furthermore, its not possible for Apple to release everything that people are predicting this year. Not only do they never release the full boat of rumored products that arise during the year, but the amount on the table this year is insane: iWatch, AppleTV, iOS 8, OS 10.10, 4.7" iPhone, updated iPads, Retina MacBook Air, overdue Mac mini, iMac spec bump....

Its not all happening before the end of this year, and as much as I wish it would.

Mac Pros don't count?
post #15 of 84
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post
Mac Pros don't count?

 

Yeah, the announcement being last year doesn’t mean they had any sales last year. It certainly counts.

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply
post #16 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by jkichline View Post
Apple is still raking in profits and WS is penalizing them for it. Why? I have no idea.

The market -- rightly or wrongly (although I think wrongly, but I am getting a bit frustrated myself) -- perceives lack of growth opportunities in Apple. Sales have been relatively flat, and profit has declined. The market's current guess is the company is in Microsoft mode (in the early 2000s) when it started to go sideways, milking cash flows from the assets-in-place. But, much of the value associated with the assets-in-place has already been priced in (including the necessary updates/improvements).

 

Apple has yet to prove them wrong.

 

I am surprised you think it's complicated to understand why.

post #17 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post

Mac Pros don't count?

Not really, from a cash flow standpoint. Rounding error. That's simply a fact, not an opinion.

post #18 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

For an operations guy, Tim Cook's product update/launch timetable is totally puzzling.

They're all seemingly bunched in the 4th quarter of the calendar year for 2014 too. The problem is, consumer wallets have already seen nine months go by. Moreover, the global supply chain is frantically working its b*** off for everyone for the holiday season, increasing the chances of delays and stock-outs.

I could understand this happening in a transition year -- 2013 -- as Cook and his new team were being put in place and settling in, but it would have been nice to see some type of normalcy return in 2014.

Not impressed. Hopefully, 2015. 1hmm.gif

It's not puzzling at all. The Dec qtr is the best qtr to release new consumer electronic products because of the gift giving season. I don't buy that consumers already spent money in the prev 9 months and can't get something in the Dec qtr.

I rather see too much demand than too little. Tim knows what he is doing.
post #19 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post
 

For an operations guy, Tim Cook's product update/launch timetable is totally puzzling.

 

They're all seemingly bunched in the 4th quarter of the calendar year for 2014 too. 

 

Yeah, releasing everything around the same time strikes me as strange too.

 

It's not like we don't know what's going to happen, based on past history. Every other day, we'll probably be reading about some sort of delays, production difficulties and who knows what else. Even though many products will launch, most of the press surrounding it will be negative.

post #20 of 84

I didn't say anything about it being complicated to understand. Apple has a history of creating new product categories and succeeding where other companies have failed. I have no idea why wall street hasn't figured that out by now. Their silence is the calm before the storm when they release the next thing in the beginning of June. Sadly, every analyst and other tech company has yet to figure this out.

post #21 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by jkichline View Post
 

I didn't say anything about it being complicated to understand. Apple has a history of creating new product categories and succeeding where other companies have failed. I have no idea why wall street hasn't figured that out by now. Their silence is the calm before the storm when they release the next thing in the beginning of June. Sadly, every analyst and other tech company has yet to figure this out.

 

Figure what out? That Apple might possibly, just maybe , might happen, could be great around the corner introduce something.

 

Yeah... every big investment house will value a company on wishes and dreams instead of growth.

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post #22 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by jkichline View Post
 
Sadly, every analyst and other tech company has yet to figure this out.

Um.... not that I particularly care about what the analysts think, but most analysts have, indeed, 'figured this out'. Most price targets for Apple are in the mid-to-upper 600s. So, I have no clue what you're talking about.

post #23 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post
 
I don't buy that consumers already spent money in the prev 9 months and can't get something in the Dec qtr.

Except for Apple fans like us who have an idea of what might be on tap and when (since we avidly follow and speculate on all this stuff), most people don't wait around, keeping hundreds of dollars in reserve, expecting some ephemeral/rumored product or update to arrive from 'Apple'. 

 

Just ask around.

post #24 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by shahhet2 View Post
 

There have been so many comments in past comparing the Apple vs Google vs Amazon in earnings, but I hope regular person understands that valuation of the company comes from PEG Ratio (Price/Earnings to Growth ratio) and not PE ratio (Price to Earnings ratio) as everyone seems to think.

This is how Financial institutions  does valuation of the stock.

There is enough information their including wikipedia if anyone wants to read on it.

 

Now if you compare Growth for Google in the two April quarters for year 2014 and 2013 you will see this from their reports.

"Google Inc. reported consolidated revenues of $15.42 billion for the quarter ended March 31, 2014, an increase of 19% compared to the first quarter of 2013. "

"Google Inc. reported consolidated revenues of $13.97 billion for the quarter ended March 31, 2013, an increase of 31% compared to the first quarter of 2012"

This shows 31% and 19% growth (See PEG Ratio) for first quarter for 2013 and 2014.

 

Now if you compare same of that to Apple, Apple is expecting same revenue for this quarter as for the year 2013 last quarter.

So this year, Analyst are expecting Apple to have zero growth in revenue (Bring again this to PEG factor)

For last year, this quarter, "For the quarter ended March 30, 2013. The Company posted quarterly revenue of $43.6 billion compared to revenue of $39.2 billion", Which is about 10% growth.

So Google got, 31% and 19% growth, while Apple got 10% and 0%(Expected) growth in those two quarters.

 

This is the exact reason Amazon has such a higher valuation, because their Growth is even higher then Google.

Now if you compare PEG ratio for Apple vs Google vs Amazon, you may see the reason why some companies have very high valuation.

 

Why did Apple stock reached $700 two years ago, you guessed it right this time. Two years ago Apple's revenue growth was in mid 20's and that's why it's stock was valued $700. (There was growth factor for Apple which is missing now)

Analysts don't look at Stock based onon their love/hate relationship like us.

 

Now as far as Apple is concerned and if We talk about reality rather then thinking from love/hate point of view, you will see that Apple has already saturated high end US/Europe/Japan market. Other markets like Asia, Africa, LATAM prefers to go low end phones for their own reasons.

 

For Apple to have higher valuation, they need to find new stream of revenue, which will bring growth back to Apple and in turn more valuation.

Again Whenever you see the stock valuation, think in terms on PEG (Growth) and not just PE.

 

I have big investments in both Google and Apple from some time and I am loosing my patients with Apple too. If Apple will not show new stream of revenue by end of year, I am planning to exit my positions as well but I just have hope that they will bring something new which can bring growth back.

 

 

 

First off revenue growth does not mean jack sheet if you are not increasing profit.

 

Second, don't take the BS non-GAAP Google numbers.  GAAP is the standard for financial reporting and it blows my mind that Wall Street allows Google to use their own reporting standards.  Google's non-GAAP reporting does not take into account stock compensation and losses from discountinued operations (aka Motorola) how convient.  Lets look at GAAP Earnings per share growth.

 

Google

Q1 2013 - $4.97 earnings per share

Q1 2014 - $5.04 earnings per share

1.4% earnings growth

 

Apple

Q1 2013 (Dec Qtr) - $13.81 earnings per share

Q1 2014 (Dec Qtr) - $14.50 earnings per share

5.0% earnings growth

 

Now tell me which company is growing earnings?

 

Google is BUYING revenue with acquisitions but their earnings is stalling.

 

And Google's monopoly in search is no longer relevant:

Facebook has its own search feature without Google

Twitter has its own search feature

Apple App store also.

And Yahoo is trying to be the default search on iOS devices. 

 

The last one alone could take away 20% of Google's revenues.

post #25 of 84

I don't want to argue with anyone who doesn't understands how valuations are done.

Go ahead and read couple of times What I wrote first, then come back to me again.

It's revenue growth that counts. Revenue growth ultimately translates into more earnings.

There is reason why Amazon has such a high valuations even with close to zero earnings.

That's Why they are called analysts and earnings millions for their analysis.

btw, Google's revenue doesn't included Motorola or Nest revenue in their report.

This is the exact reason why Google/Facebook etc are buying more companies.

When they think that they have saturated particular market, they need to look into new market for growth and that is What companies with money is doing.

Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

 

First off revenue growth does not mean jack sheet if you are not increasing profit.

 

Second, don't take the BS non-GAAP Google numbers.  GAAP is the standard for financial reporting and it blows my mind that Wall Street allows Google to use their own reporting standards.  Google's non-GAAP reporting does not take into account stock compensation and losses from discountinued operations (aka Motorola) how convient.  Lets look at GAAP Earnings per share growth.

 

Google

Q1 2013 - $4.97 earnings per share

Q1 2014 - $5.04 earnings per share

1.4% earnings growth

 

Apple

Q1 2013 (Dec Qtr) - $13.81 earnings per share

Q1 2014 (Dec Qtr) - $14.50 earnings per share

5.0% earnings growth

 

Now tell me which company is growing earnings?

 

Google is BUYING revenue with acquisitions but their earnings is stalling.


Edited by shahhet2 - 4/21/14 at 8:48am
post #26 of 84

I guess I have a different level of acceptable risk and expectation of future returns than "big investment houses". Then again, that's why I made a mint on Apple by investing pre-iPhone and why I'm a serial entrepreneur and not a boring banker.

post #27 of 84

Good point, although I think that number should be higher but I agree they are looking a little ahead.

post #28 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by shahhet2 View Post
 

I don't want to argue with anyone who doesn't understands how valuations are done.

Go ahead and read couple of times What I wrote first, then come back to me again.

It's revenue growth that counts. Revenue growth ultimately translates into more earnings.

There is reason why Amazon has such a high valuations even with close to zero earnings.

That's Why they are called analysts and earnings millions for their analysis.

 

BS.  Revenue growth does not equal valuations.  BS.  Google revenue is growing because of acquistions.

 

Why all the talk about Apple's shrinking margins then?

 

Google's price for click has gone down for 10 straight quarters.

 

Yes the same analysts that almost cost our entire economy to collapse.

The same analysts who bought the kool aid during the .com bubble. BS. BS. BS.

 

Again explain why Google grows earnings at 1% and Apple at 5%? 

yet Apple's profits are 200% bigger?

post #29 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

For an operations guy, Tim Cook's product update/launch timetable is totally puzzling.

They're all seemingly bunched in the 4th quarter of the calendar year for 2014 too. The problem is, consumer wallets have already seen nine months go by. Moreover, the global supply chain is frantically working its b*** off for everyone for the holiday season, increasing the chances of delays and stock-outs.

I could understand this happening in a transition year -- 2013 -- as Cook and his new team were being put in place and settling in, but it would have been nice to see some type of normalcy return in 2014.

Not impressed. Hopefully, 2015. 1hmm.gif


First: By my calculations, the year 2014 is less than 1/3 along -- yet many, like you, assume that there will be no new products -- seems a bit illogical.

Second: The 2014 WWDC Keynote will occur on June 2 (approximately mid-year) -- this. historically, is the venue for announcing new and updated products -- and sometimes new categories,

Third: Often Apple's products are dependent on new or leading-edge technology being available in large volumes (TouchID, 64-bit A7, Mac Pro, Thunderbolt 2, etc.). Sometimes, Apple's announce/release schedule is dependent upon other companies. Since Apple does not like to talk about products until/unless they know they can deliver the goods -- we can usually rely on a late (last-minute) announce/pre-order -- with a ramped up delivery in 2-6 months.  This, opposed to the competition who pre-announces everything -- even though delivery may be years away (or never).

Fourth: Apple has been making some interesting investments in technology:  acquisitions;   plant and equipment;  cloud/server farms;   personnel;  star-power talent (Burberry CEO Angela Ahrendts, former Yves St Laurent CEO Paul Deneve).  I suspect that Apple will use these investments to create new categories/products and bring a new level of desirable, affordable, quality, practical technology to the market.


In other words: IMO, 2014 -- you ain't seen nothin' yet!
Edited by Dick Applebaum - 4/21/14 at 9:01am
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post #30 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post


First: By my calculations, the year 2014 is less than 1/3 along -- yet many, like you, assume that there will be no new products -- seems a bit illogical.

Second: The 2014 WWDC Keynote will occur on June 2 (approximately mid-year) -- this. historically, is the venue for announcing new and updated products -- and sometimes new categories,

Third: Often Apple's products are dependent on new or leading-edge technology being available in large volumes (TouchID, 64-bit A7, Mac Pro, Thunderbolt 2, etc.). Sometimes, Apple's announce/release schedule is dependent upon other companies. Since Apple does not like to talk about products until/unless they know they can deliver the goods -- we can usually rely on a late (last-minute) announce/per-order -- with a ramped up delivery in 2-6 months.  This, opposed to the competition who pre-announces everything -- even though delivery may be years away (or never).

Fourth: Apple has been making some interesting investments in technology:  acquisitions;   plant and equipment;  cloud/server farms;   personnel;  star-power talent (Burberry CEO Angela Ahrendts, former Yves St Laurent CEO Paul Deneve).  I suspect that Apple will use these investments to create new categories/products and bring a new level of desirable, affordable, quality, practical technology to the market.


In other words: IMO, 2014 -- you ain't seen nothin' yet!

 

I don't think Anan said there wouldn't be anything in 2014.

 

What was said is that a few of us think that this boom bust cycle of announcing everything in the 4th/1st fiscal quarters is not the right way to go.

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post #31 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Except for Apple fans like us who have an idea of what might be on tap and when (since we avidly follow and speculate on all this stuff), most people don't wait around, keeping hundreds of dollars in reserve, expecting some ephemeral/rumored product or update to arrive from 'Apple'. 

Just ask around.

I guess I don't understand why the Dec qtr is the largest qtr by volume and $$$ if only Apple fans buy then. I never knew there were so many Apple fans and those same people upgrade everything every year. /s
post #32 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

First: By my calculations, the year 2014 is less than 1/3 along -- yet many, like you, assume that there will be no new products -- seems a bit illogical.

Second: The 2014 WWDC Keynote will occur on June 2 (approximately mid-year) -- this. historically, is the venue for announcing new and updated products -- and sometimes new categories,

Third: Often Apple's products are dependent on new or leading-edge technology being available in large volumes (TouchID, 64-bit A7, Mac Pro, Thunderbolt 2, etc.). Sometimes, Apple's announce/release schedule is dependent upon other companies. Since Apple does not like to talk about products until/unless they know they can deliver the goods -- we can usually rely on a late (last-minute) announce/per-order -- with a ramped up delivery in 2-6 months.  This, opposed to the competition who pre-announces everything -- even though delivery may be years away (or never).

Fourth: Apple has been making some interesting investments in technology:  acquisitions;   plant and equipment;  cloud/server farms;   personnel;  star-power talent (Burberry CEO Angela Ahrendts, former Yves St Laurent CEO Paul Deneve).  I suspect that Apple will use these investments to create new categories/products and bring a new level of desirable, affordable, quality, practical technology to the market.



In other words: IMO, 2014 -- you ain't seen nothin' yet!

I don't think Anan said there wouldn't be anything in 2014.

What was said is that a few of us think that this boom bust cycle of announcing everything in the 4th/1st fiscal quarters is not the right way to go.

In which quarter is June?  September?  October?
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post #33 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post


In which quarter is June?  September?  October?

 

I said September and October.

 

Is this not when the products that constitute 90% of Apple's revenue are announced. Within a one month span.

na na na na na...
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na na na na na...
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post #34 of 84
Quote:
"

And Google's monopoly in search is no longer relevant:

Facebook has its own search feature without Google

Twitter has its own search feature

Apple App store also.

And Yahoo is trying to be the default search on iOS devices. 

 

The last one alone could take away 20% of Google's revenues."

See this is where the exact problem is :)

You think this, this, this will happen and that's why X stock will go down.

This,this and this new product will come and Y stock will go up.

 

If Apple shows new stream of revenue, they will have growth and stock will go up.

If Google gets suffocated in their growth, their stock will go down, but none of those two have  happened until this very latest Quarter of 2014. (As Well in last 1.5 years)

 

Analyst don't work that way, They look at hard facts. When it happens, stock may respond. 

post #35 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

In which quarter is June?  September?  October?

I am guessing that something announced in June will likely not be ready to ship until Sept (or thereabouts).

post #36 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post

I guess I don't understand why the Dec qtr is the largest qtr by volume and $$$ if only Apple fans buy then. I never knew there were so many Apple fans and those same people upgrade everything every year. /s

Cut the "/s", and figure out basic arithmetic.

 

"Largest quarter by volume" ≠ 100%.

 

"Largest" It couldn't have been ever larger if spaced better...

post #37 of 84
Um and Munster? Who cares what these numbskulls say?

What does Horace Dediu say?

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #38 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

In which quarter is June?  September?  October?

I said September and October.

Is this not when the products that constitute 90% of Apple's revenue are announced. Within a one month span.

So, you don't think that there will be any iPhone or iPad announcements between June 2 (WWDC) and September?
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post #39 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Except for Apple fans like us who have an idea of what might be on tap and when (since we avidly follow and speculate on all this stuff), most people don't wait around, keeping hundreds of dollars in reserve, expecting some ephemeral/rumored product or update to arrive from 'Apple'. 

Just ask around.

I guess I don't understand why the Dec qtr is the largest qtr by volume and $$$ if only Apple fans buy then. I never knew there were so many Apple fans and those same people upgrade everything every year. /s

Like it or not, individuals ar the only buyers of Apple products. More and more enterprises (governments, large business, education, health, etc.) are buying (or underwriting BYOD) iPhones and iPads for business use. Tim said recently that over 95% of the Fortune 100 were evaluating or buying iPads. Normally, enterprise sales mean that large purchases are subject to the enterprises' budget cycle.

When I worked for IBM, we were very aware of these budget cycles and planned our sell/install efforts around them. I suspect that enterprises' budget cycles will increasingly skew iPad and iPhone purchases.
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"The perfect [birth]day -- A little playtime, a good poop, and a long nap." - Tomato Greeting Cards -
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post #40 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Cut the "/s", and figure out basic arithmetic.

"Largest quarter by volume" ≠ 100%.

"Largest" It couldn't have been ever larger if spaced better...

What is this 100%? I don't even know what you're trying to say in your second comment.
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