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Earnings preview: Wall Street expects flat March quarter, awaiting new products in late 2014 - Page 2

post #41 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by shahhet2 View Post
 

See this is where the exact problem is :)

You think this, this, this will happen and that's why X stock will go down.

This,this and this new product will come and Y stock will go up.

 

If Apple shows new stream of revenue, they will have growth and stock will go up.

If Google gets suffocated in their growth, their stock will go down, but none of those two have  happened until this very latest Quarter of 2014. (As Well in last 1.5 years)

 

Analyst don't work that way, They look at hard facts. When it happens, stock may respond. 

 

WTF are you talking about.

 

Those things have ALREADY happened (Twitter search, Facebook search, Siri search, App store search, Yahoo talking to Apple about default iOS search).  Google's search business is already threatened by being splintered.  Not to mention that mobile search margins are much lower than desktop.  Google's cost per click has been going down 10 straight quarters.

 

In order to justify its share price relative to Apple, Google would need to increase revenues by 100% (to match Apple's $40 EPS per year).  You really think Google can double its search revenue by 100%????

post #42 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post


So, you don't think that there will be any iPhone or iPad announcements between June 2 (WWDC) and September?

 

I'll answer that with a question:

Do you think that Apple will release any iPhone or iPads between June 2 and September? 

na na na na na...
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na na na na na...
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post #43 of 84
This may be a bit off-topic for this thread, but Apple's business may be evolving into an XaaS business -- as are many other tech businesses.

Consider The sales of iTunes Software and Services:
Quote:
On a yearly basis iTunes/Software/Services is nearly half of Google’s core business and growing slightly faster.

The iTunes “empire” of content and services would be ranked as number 130 in the Fortune 500 ranking of companies (slightly below Alcoa and above Eli Lilly).





http://www.asymco.com/2014/02/10/fortune-130/


To some extent, Apple already offers XaaS with iCloud Apps and storage, iTunes Match, Streaming, etc.

What if Apple were to offer SHaaS, (SHopping as a Service) using iTunes to browse/shop/buy/pay for services, general merchandise and hard goods?

Some US carriers are offering a kind of "upgrade insurance" with their iPhone subsidies -- where for a nominal monthly fee you can upgrade more frequently without additional fees.

What if Apple were to offer HWaaS (HardWare as a Service) -- where you buy an iPhone or iPad (and, possibly Macs) for a low-monthly charge (billed and financed through iTunes) which includes the cell/WiFi/etc. carrier services plan -- and the ability upgrade to new models as they became available?

Finally, with Apple wearables, likely, coming this year or next -- it is conceivable that most Apple customers will have BTLE/WiFi/Cell/GPS radios on their person at all times. In effect, everybody could become an iBeacon -- continuously generating location information useful for navigation, tracking and marketing.

What if Apple were to pay its customers (through iTunes credits) to anonymously (or identifiably) gather this data for purposes of marketing and/or customized personal services?
Edited by Dick Applebaum - 4/21/14 at 11:21am
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post #44 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

So, you don't think that there will be any iPhone or iPad announcements between June 2 (WWDC) and September?

I'll answer that with a question:
Do you think that Apple will release any iPhone or iPads between June 2 and September? 

Yes!
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post #45 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post


Yes!

 

Interesting. Considering that Apple hasn't done that in quite a while.

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post #46 of 84
Originally Posted by shahhet2 View Post
Analyst don't work that way, They look at hard facts. When it happens, stock may respond. 
Originally Posted by shahhet2 View Post
That's Why they are called analysts and earnings millions for their analysis.

I don't disagree that analysts look at facts but for every analyst that recommends a "buy" there are as many that recommend a sell/hold. That tells me that one analyst happens to be right and one happens to be wrong. Maybe that's why the average engineer makes more than the average analyst?

 

Or are you advising us to just listen to the analysts who earn millions and to ignore the others?

Or should we just listen to the analysts that are right all the time? /s

 

Hmmm...I don't hear you shouting support for the analyst that has a $745 target on aapl.

 

edit: I don't think any of us disagree that analysts impact the market, but you seem to only be cherry-picking reasons why we should be accepting this analysts analysis.

post #47 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by shahhet2 View Post

 

Analyst don't work that way, They look at hard facts. When it happens, stock may respond. 

 

FACT: Google makes $20 profit per share

FACT: Apple makes $40 profit per share

FACT: there stock price are both in the $530 area

FACT: Google grew profits 1% last quarter

FACT: Apple grew profits 5% last quarter

 

So tell me Mr Facts:

 

How the HELL will Google DOUBLE their PROFITS when they only grew them 1% last quarter?

Tell me how they can justify their $530 stock price when Apple makes DOUBLE the profits at the same stock price?

post #48 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

Yes!

Interesting. Considering that Apple hasn't done that in quite a while.

Yeah, but both you and I (and many others here) think that they are overdue.

Apple has at least a year lead with the 64-bit A7/A8 -- they need to exploit that lead. AFAIK, the only tech that could hold that back is availability of LPDDR4 DRAM - which provides double bandwidth at equal power to current LPDDR3, Apple could mitigate that by releasing a larger (12"} iPad with more (4GB - 8GB) LPDDR3 DRAM and a bigger battery. Also, while not an iPad, Apple could release a MacBook Air with ARM -- running OSX and/or iOS.

I could see announce at WWDC, June 9 Pre-order, and availability July-August.


Quote:
According to Margolis, Micron is ramping up production of its LPDDR4 RAM and will supply Apple with memory chips for its 2014 iPad, iPhone and Mac models, which are expected to debut later this year. Margolis believes a "mystery" $250 million payment Micro received for "product to be supplied through September 2016" is from Apple as part of a multi-year deal

http://www.macrumors.com/2014/04/03/micron-apple-ddr4-ram/
Edited by Dick Applebaum - 4/21/14 at 12:26pm
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post #49 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

 

First off revenue growth does not mean jack sheet if you are not increasing profit.

 

Second, don't take the BS non-GAAP Google numbers.  GAAP is the standard for financial reporting and it blows my mind that Wall Street allows Google to use their own reporting standards.  Google's non-GAAP reporting does not take into account stock compensation and losses from discountinued operations (aka Motorola) how convient.  Lets look at GAAP Earnings per share growth.

 

Google

Q1 2013 - $4.97 earnings per share

Q1 2014 - $5.04 earnings per share

1.4% earnings growth

 

Apple

Q1 2013 (Dec Qtr) - $13.81 earnings per share

Q1 2014 (Dec Qtr) - $14.50 earnings per share

5.0% earnings growth

 

Now tell me which company is growing earnings?

 

Google is BUYING revenue with acquisitions but their earnings is stalling.

 

And Google's monopoly in search is no longer relevant:

Facebook has its own search feature without Google

Twitter has its own search feature

Apple App store also.

And Yahoo is trying to be the default search on iOS devices. 

 

The last one alone could take away 20% of Google's revenues.

Please tell me you aren't this stupid.  Did Apple's earnings grow or did the number of shares outstanding just decrease?  

post #50 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

 

WTF are you talking about.

 

Those things have ALREADY happened (Twitter search, Facebook search, Siri search, App store search, Yahoo talking to Apple about default iOS search).  Google's search business is already threatened by being splintered.  Not to mention that mobile search margins are much lower than desktop.  Google's cost per click has been going down 10 straight quarters.

 

In order to justify its share price relative to Apple, Google would need to increase revenues by 100% (to match Apple's $40 EPS per year).  You really think Google can double its search revenue by 100%????

Can't you discuss in adult manner, or you are just another teen? Then I shouldn't have replied to you in first place.

You answered your own question. Since all those thing already happened to Google and even after that Google Got 31% growth last year same quarter and 19% this quarter.

Apple with close to no competition in high end, got 10% growth last year same quarter and expected 0% growth this quarter.

This explains high valuation for Google :)


Edited by shahhet2 - 4/21/14 at 12:31pm
post #51 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by drewys808 View Post
 

I don't disagree that analysts look at facts but for every analyst that recommends a "buy" there are as many that recommend a sell/hold. That tells me that one analyst happens to be right and one happens to be wrong. Maybe that's why the average engineer makes more than the average analyst?

 

Or are you advising us to just listen to the analysts who earn millions and to ignore the others?

Or should we just listen to the analysts that are right all the time? /s

 

Hmmm...I don't hear you shouting support for the analyst that has a $745 target on aapl.

 

edit: I don't think any of us disagree that analysts impact the market, but you seem to only be cherry-picking reasons why we should be accepting this analysts analysis.

I was not quoting analyst comment.

I was just trying to explain general misunderstanding, why companies like Amazon with zero profit has such high valuations vs Apple with such high earnings has low valuations.

post #52 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

 

FACT: Google makes $20 profit per share

FACT: Apple makes $40 profit per share

FACT: there stock price are both in the $530 area

FACT: Google grew profits 1% last quarter

FACT: Apple grew profits 5% last quarter

 

So tell me Mr Facts:

 

How the HELL will Google DOUBLE their PROFITS when they only grew them 1% last quarter?

Tell me how they can justify their $530 stock price when Apple makes DOUBLE the profits at the same stock price?

Go back and read my first article again and again and again. PEG ratio, PEG ratio, PEG ratio.......

Valuations are based on PEG ratio and not earnings.

Where is growth for Apple in last 1.5 years?

If you still can't get it, you don't deserve anymore replies. Bye.

post #53 of 84

I own Apple stock, but I'm amazed at the stupidity of the people on here talking about 5% earnings growth.  Net revenue was flat YoY, but the number of shares outstanding decreased and that is where ALL the EPS "growth" came from.  In other words there was no growth, zero, zilch, nada when it comes to net revenue and in fact there was net revenue decrease last year.

 

Sure they can keep buying stock back which will increase the EPS assuming they can maintain current net revenue, but don't confuse that with growth.

 

As for releasing new products.  Well they haven't done that in over four years so lets not rush them.  Granted they are only the biggest company by market cap on the planet (or are they second now?) so it's probably expecting too much to come up with another product line.

post #54 of 84
Originally Posted by shahhet2 View Post
Go back and read my first article again and again and again. PEG ratio, PEG ratio, PEG ratio.......

 

Is “PEG ratio” the new IGZO? 

 
If you still can't get it, you don't deserve anymore replies. Bye. 

 

Ah, “I’m leaving, therefore I’m right,” how I’ve not missed you at all.

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply
post #55 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post
 

 

Is “PEG ratio” the new IGZO? 

 

Ah, “I’m leaving, therefore I’m right,” how I’ve not missed you at all.

Here comes Mr. Always Right :) Wikipedia is your help.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PEG_ratio

"PEG is a widely employed indicator of a stock's possible true value."

btw, I am also investor of Apple stock, but not sentimentally connected to Apple stock, I am there for investment point of view :)


Edited by shahhet2 - 4/21/14 at 2:19pm
post #56 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by shahhet2 View Post
 

Can't you discuss in adult manner, or you are just another teen? Then I shouldn't have replied to you in first place.

You answered your own question. Since all those thing already happened to Google and even after that Google Got 31% growth last year same quarter and 19% this quarter.

Apple with close to no competition in high end, got 10% growth last year same quarter and expected 0% growth this quarter.

This explains high valuation for Google :)

 

Why are bringing up the 31% growth from 2012 to 2013 quarter? Thats TWO YEARS AGO.  The most recent growth was 18% on revenue and 1% on earnings.

 

And a big chunk of that 18% increase in revenue was from Motorolla and 'Other Income' (over $1.5B in other income).

 

The bottom line is THE BOTTOM LINE.  Go ahead and think Revenue is the end all.  It isn't.  Its all about PROFITS.  Anyone can increase revenue by dropping prices or selling things below cost (see Amazon).

post #57 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by shahhet2 View Post
 

Here comes Mr. Right :) Wikipedia is your help.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PEG_ratio

"PEG is a widely employed indicator of a stock's possible true value."

btw, I am also investor of Apple stock, but not sentimentally connected to Apple stock, I am there for investment point of view :)

 

So wikipedia is your go to for investment advice? wow.

post #58 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

 

So wikipedia is your go to for investment advice? wow.

Its advice for people who are connected to Apple sentimentally :)

Do you have technical reason why Apple has such low valuations and Amazon has such a high valuations?

Why did Analyst loved Apple 1.5 years ago (When it hit $700) and now suddenly that don't like Apple.

Believe me, there is no love/hate from Analysts, it's plain fact that they are not seeing new stream of revenue which tells that existing market is saturated and that's why stock has suffered.

Why Analysts love Amazon even with years of no earnings?

Don't tell me bs like they hate apple and love Amazon etc etc.

 

All these are multi-billion dollar companies, not easily manipulated by couple of analysts comments. Also there is no agenda of 20 analyst working together to bring Apple stock down, unlike few crazy people like to think.

post #59 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by tkell31 View Post
 

I own Apple stock, but I'm amazed at the stupidity of the people on here talking about 5% earnings growth.  Net revenue was flat YoY, but the number of shares outstanding decreased and that is where ALL the EPS "growth" came from.  In other words there was no growth, zero, zilch, nada when it comes to net revenue and in fact there was net revenue decrease last year.

 

Sure they can keep buying stock back which will increase the EPS assuming they can maintain current net revenue, but don't confuse that with growth.

 

As for releasing new products.  Well they haven't done that in over four years so lets not rush them.  Granted they are only the biggest company by market cap on the planet (or are they second now?) so it's probably expecting too much to come up with another product line.

 

Calling other people stupid and then spewing out false information is beyond stupid.

 

Net Revenue was up 6% last quarter from $54.5B to $57.6B

 

Learn the difference between Net Revenue vs Profits before you start calling other people idiots.

 

You are also forgetting to take into account what has caused gross margins to go down:

 

1) Deferred Revenue accrual has increased for operating system updates

2) Deferred Revenue accrual has increased for free software

3) Deferred Revenue accrual has increased for warranty repairs

4) Currency flucations

 

Those three items alone account for over a BILLION in net income.  But you would have known this already if you listened to the conference call.  The accruals are extremely conservative and if they were not increased earnings would be up 5-10% last quarter.  But Apple is being safe and does not want to mislead investors (unlike Google who releases non-GAAP financials in which they don't count stock compensation and losses from Motorolla)

post #60 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

 

Why are bringing up the 31% growth from 2012 to 2013 quarter? Thats TWO YEARS AGO.  The most recent growth was 18% on revenue and 1% on earnings.

 

And a big chunk of that 18% increase in revenue was from Motorolla and 'Other Income' (over $1.5B in other income).

 

The bottom line is THE BOTTOM LINE.  Go ahead and think Revenue is the end all.  It isn't.  Its all about PROFITS.  Anyone can increase revenue by dropping prices or selling things below cost (see Amazon).

I did said earlier, they don't count Motorola revenue/earnings as their operating segment.

It is not counted in their revenue. 

post #61 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by shahhet2 View Post
 

Its advice for people who are connected to Apple sentimentally :)

Do you have technical reason why Apple has such low valuations and Amazon has such a high valuations?

Why did Analyst loved Apple 1.5 years ago (When it hit $700) and now suddenly that don't like Apple.

Believe me, there is no love/hate from Analysts, it's plain fact that they are not seeing new stream of revenue which tells that existing market is saturated and that's why stock has suffered.

Why Analysts love Amazon even with years of no earnings?

Don't tell me bs like they hate apple and love Amazon etc etc.

 

All these are multi-billion dollar companies, not easily manipulated by couple of analysts comments. Also there is no agenda of 20 analyst working together to bring Apple stock down, unlike few crazy people like to think.

 

I'll give you a hint why Amazon gets the love and Apple doesn't:

 

1. Amazon is 90% owned by institutions/insiders

2. Apple is 62% owned by institutions/insiders

 

Why would these big instututions drive down Amazon's stock which they own the vast majority?

Amazon is a bubble that will pop in the next year.

post #62 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by shahhet2 View Post
 

I did said earlier, they don't count Motorola revenue/earnings as their operating segment.

It is not counted in their revenue. 

 

it gets counting in GAAP earnings.

 

You know GAAP:  the standard financial reporting in the USA?

post #63 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by shahhet2 View Post
 

I did said earlier, they don't count Motorola revenue/earnings as their operating segment.

It is not counted in their revenue. 

 

So why is revenue up 18% but earnings only up 1%?

post #64 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by shahhet2 View Post
 

 

 

Believe me, there is no love/hate from Analysts, it's plain fact...........

 

All these are multi-billion dollar companies, not easily manipulated by couple of analysts comments. Also there is no agenda of 20 analyst working together to bring Apple stock down, unlike few crazy people like to think.

 

Yup.  Same analysis that got sued and thrown into jail for the .com era?  Housing crisis?  Bank crisis?  Those same HONEST GUYS without an AGENDA?

 

Same guys who almost tanked the ENTIRE WORLD ECONOMY?

Sure no way on earth would those guys try to manipulate Apple's stock...

post #65 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

 

Calling other people stupid and then spewing out false information is beyond stupid.

 

Net Revenue was up 6% last quarter from $54.5B to $57.6B

 

Learn the difference between Net Revenue vs Profits before you start calling other people idiots.

 

You are also forgetting to take into account what has caused gross margins to go down:

 

1) Deferred Revenue accrual has increased for operating system updates

2) Deferred Revenue accrual has increased for free software

3) Deferred Revenue accrual has increased for warranty repairs

4) Currency flucations

 

Those three items alone account for over a BILLION in net income.  But you would have known this already if you listened to the conference call.  The accruals are extremely conservative and if they were not increased earnings would be up 5-10% last quarter.  But Apple is being safe and does not want to mislead investors (unlike Google who releases non-GAAP financials in which they don't count stock compensation and losses from Motorola)

I am guessing you already know the difference between GAAP and non-GAAP.

Layoffs, Sale of divisions (For Motorola) etc are called not repeatable expenses. (Motorola is sold to Lenovo), so their revenue/earnings/loss don't reflect true earnings for Google.

Just because Google is taking too many risks with multiple companies with high hit/fail rate, they have higher one time expenses.

They are looking for next big thing and don't want themselves limited to Search. (And that's why there is Android or Nest or Motorola or Drones etc etc)

These are two different investment strategies from two different companies. 

post #66 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by pmz View Post

Its not shaping up to be a blockbuster year for Apple at all. I may be a big fan and often apologist, but I do not make excuses for no new products since Oct 2013.

Furthermore, its not possible for Apple to release everything that people are predicting this year. Not only do they never release the full boat of rumored products that arise during the year, but the amount on the table this year is insane: iWatch, AppleTV, iOS 8, OS 10.10, 4.7" iPhone, updated iPads, Retina MacBook Air, overdue Mac mini, iMac spec bump....

Its not all happening before the end of this year, and as much as I wish it would.

 

Would you rather have a bunch of half-developed junk coming out now or would you rather wait until Apple is ready to release something really cool?

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

Reply

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

Reply
post #67 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

 

So why is revenue up 18% but earnings only up 1%?

Look it up yourself. You are smart enough to find from their earnings report :)

post #68 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by shahhet2 View Post
 

I am guessing you already know the difference between GAAP and non-GAAP.

Layoffs, Sale of divisions (For Motorola) etc are called not repeatable expenses. (Motorola is sold to Lenovo), so their revenue/earnings/loss don't reflect true earnings for Google.

Just because Google is taking too many risks with multiple companies with high hit/fail rate, they have higher one time expenses.

They are looking for next big thing and don't want themselves limited to Search. (And that's why there is Android or Nest or Motorola or Drones etc etc)

These are two different investment strategies from two different companies. 

 

non-repeatable?  Google has been losing billions every year from discountinued operations and stock compensation.

 

How on earth is that not part of the cost of running a business?  Flat out they are trying to deceive investors.

post #69 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

 

Why are bringing up the 31% growth from 2012 to 2013 quarter? Thats TWO YEARS AGO.  The most recent growth was 18% on revenue and 1% on earnings.

 

And a big chunk of that 18% increase in revenue was from Motorolla and 'Other Income' (over $1.5B in other income).

 

The bottom line is THE BOTTOM LINE.  Go ahead and think Revenue is the end all.  It isn't.  Its all about PROFITS.  Anyone can increase revenue by dropping prices or selling things below cost (see Amazon).

That was not two years ago, that was 1 year ago. It was for Jan-March of 2013. 

That is the time-frame where Apple revenue got stalled  to steady pace and stock price got stalled as well. (About last 1.5 years)

post #70 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

 

non-repeatable?  Google has been losing billions every year from discountinued operations and stock compensation.

 

How on earth is that not part of the cost of running a business?  Flat out they are trying to deceive investors.

That's what person attached to one stock or other stock thinks. Not the Analysts. 

Amazon can stop investing millions or billions in their own growth and then they will see earnings (Since no loss from creating/setting up new business), but not re-investing means you are compromising with growth.

That's Where, Google/Facebook/Amazon doesn't wants to go.

 

You know that even if you want to start your own business, you are not going to make money from day one correct? You have to invest and take losses before you start realizing any profits.

It's simple business metrics.

post #71 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by shahhet2 View Post
 

That's what person attached to one stock or other stock thinks. Not the Analysts. 

Amazon can stop investing millions or billions in their own growth and then they will see earnings (Since no loss from creating/setting up new business), but not re-investing means you are compromising with growth.

That's Where, Google/Facebook/Amazon doesn't wants to go.

 

You know that even if you want to start your own business, you are not going to make money from day one correct? You have to invest and take losses before you start realizing any profits.

It's simple business metrics.

 

lol.  And all the warehouses by Amazon will all of a sudden be FREE?  No cost to maintain or repair? Property taxes?  Insurance?

 

But I was talking about Google and how they don't count stock compensation as part of their non-GAAP earnings.  Thats total BS.  Stock compensation will continue until they go bankrupt.  Stock comp is the definition of a re-occuring expense.

post #72 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by shahhet2 View Post
 

That was not two years ago, that was 1 year ago. It was for Jan-March of 2013. 

That is the time-frame where Apple revenue got stalled  to steady pace and stock price got stalled as well. (About last 1.5 years)

 

Jan2013 is ancient history.  Those results have nothing to do with the current stock price.

post #73 of 84
Originally Posted by shahhet2 View Post
 

They are looking for next big thing and don't want themselves limited to Search. (And that's why there is Android or Nest or Motorola or Drones etc etc)

I must disagree...or at least let's clarify.

History has shown that google is not primarily interested in innovation and development of the next big thing, instead, they are interested in disruption of the next big thing...for the sake of ad/search.

 

That's why they have flung whatever technologies against the wall just to see what sticks. What do you think Android was for?.. it was for ad/search. Same for Motorola. Time will tell re: Nest/Glasses/drones.

 

google is scared crapless knowing that it could lose big in ad/search in the mobile space...but at least its forward P/E isn't stratospheric, like AMZN.  Sure, Amazon can monetize with its near monopoly, but can only raise retail prices so much to remain competitive.

 

Apple, OTOH, can monetize on ads, software, accessories, media, etc. (not to mention hardware) but it balances making more money with strengthening its incredible brand/reputation. So which company has the highest probability of increasing profits in the near term and the long term...I'd say Apple, hands down.

 

I'm not ignoring the fact that Apple has challenges with maintaining margins and growing units sold. Should be an interesting year.

post #74 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

 

lol.  And all the warehouses by Amazon will all of a sudden be FREE?  No cost to maintain or repair? Property taxes?  Insurance?

 

But I was talking about Google and how they don't count stock compensation as part of their non-GAAP earnings.  Thats total BS.  Stock compensation will continue until they go bankrupt.  Stock comp is the definition of a re-occuring expense.

So does Apple. Just because, you can't find doesn't mean there is no SBC for other companies.

You just have to look little dipper.

http://investor.apple.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1193125-14-24487&CIK=320193

Apple reported SBC of $681 million last reported quarter, just like any other company and it is reproted same as Google.

 

Besides, What does this has anything to do with Revenue growth? My original point was still the revenue growth.

post #75 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

 

Jan2013 is ancient history.  Those results have nothing to do with the current stock price.

Look how  things are changing. Initially you replied 2 years ago comparison, and now Last March report (1 year ago) is ancient history!!! :)

It has everything to do with why Apple stock has not risen in last 1.5 years or Google Stock has gone up in 1.5 years.

post #76 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by drewys808 View Post
 

I must disagree...or at least let's clarify.

History has shown that google is not primarily interested in innovation and development of the next big thing, instead, they are interested in disruption of the next big thing...for the sake of ad/search.

 

That's why they have flung whatever technologies against the wall just to see what sticks. What do you think Android was for?.. it was for ad/search. Same for Motorola. Time will tell re: Nest/Glasses/drones.

 

google is scared crapless knowing that it could lose big in ad/search in the mobile space...but at least its forward P/E isn't stratospheric, like AMZN.  Sure, Amazon can monetize with its near monopoly, but can only raise retail prices so much to remain competitive.

 

Apple, OTOH, can monetize on ads, software, accessories, media, etc. (not to mention hardware) but it balances making more money with strengthening its incredible brand/reputation. So which company has the highest probability of increasing profits in the near term and the long term...I'd say Apple, hands down.

 

I'm not ignoring the fact that Apple has challenges with maintaining margins and growing units sold. Should be an interesting year.

Yes Android was to get Mobile ad revenue, since they knew Mobile was next big thing. (To grow revenue and ultimately profit)

Motorola was just for defensive patent protection and nothing else.

 

Apple is already master of HW. They are trying to monetize ads, but still not much success yet. As I said, I want Apple to succeed from investor point of view. But they have to come up with something where they can show revenue growth, which is stalled from couple of years.

 

If you check history of Apple stock from 2004-2014, You will not find consecutive two years without double digit revenue growth until last two years. That's why Apple has gone up from $50 in 2004 to $700 in 2012. They need to come up with something to resume that growth.


Edited by shahhet2 - 4/21/14 at 2:13pm
post #77 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

 

Calling other people stupid and then spewing out false information is beyond stupid.

 

Net Revenue was up 6% last quarter from $54.5B to $57.6B

 

Learn the difference between Net Revenue vs Profits before you start calling other people idiots.

 

You are also forgetting to take into account what has caused gross margins to go down:

 

1) Deferred Revenue accrual has increased for operating system updates

2) Deferred Revenue accrual has increased for free software

3) Deferred Revenue accrual has increased for warranty repairs

4) Currency flucations

 

Those three items alone account for over a BILLION in net income.  But you would have known this already if you listened to the conference call.  The accruals are extremely conservative and if they were not increased earnings would be up 5-10% last quarter.  But Apple is being safe and does not want to mislead investors (unlike Google who releases non-GAAP financials in which they don't count stock compensation and losses from Motorolla)

Do you even know what net revenue is?  You just cited gross revenue so my guess is you do not.  Thanks for proving my point.

post #78 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

 

I'll give you a hint why Amazon gets the love and Apple doesn't:

 

1. Amazon is 90% owned by institutions/insiders

2. Apple is 62% owned by institutions/insiders

 

Why would these big instututions drive down Amazon's stock which they own the vast majority?

Amazon is a bubble that will pop in the next year.

Is there any way to save comments like this, so I can bring them up again in a year's time?

post #79 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by DarkLite View Post
 

Is there any way to save comments like this, so I can bring them up again in a year's time?

 

Reminders on your iPhone.

post #80 of 84
My guess is 37m iPhones, 19m iPads, 3.8m Macs, with earnings of $9.90/share. These numbers rely on conservative China Mobile sales. The media will spin the numbers as a disaster, given the inability to grow, even with the addition of China Mobile. Going forward, I think a higher number of consumers in the US and other countries with carrier subsidies are holding on to their old phones longer due to the lack of innovation that "wows." Growth will return with a vengeance when the 6 is released this fall. Not due to the "wow" factor, but due to over 3 years of pent-up demand for a bigger iPhone. I don't think Apple will ever sell less than 50m iPhones or 25m iPads in any future quarter, save the current quarter.
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