Originally Posted by shahhet2
There have been so many comments in past comparing the Apple vs Google vs Amazon in earnings, but I hope regular person understands that valuation of the company comes from PEG Ratio (Price/Earnings to Growth ratio) and not PE ratio (Price to Earnings ratio) as everyone seems to think.
This is how Financial institutions does valuation of the stock.
There is enough information their including wikipedia if anyone wants to read on it.
If you compare Growth for Google in the two April quarters for year 2014 and 2013 you will see this from their reports.
"Google Inc. reported consolidated revenues of $15.42 billion for the quarter ended March 31, 2014, an increase of 19% compared to the first quarter of 2013.
"Google Inc. reported consolidated revenues of $13.97 billion for the quarter ended March 31, 2013, an increase of 31% compared to the first quarter of 2012"This shows 31% and 19% growth (See PEG Ratio) for first quarter for 2013 and 2014.Now if you compare same of that to Apple, Apple is expecting same revenue for this quarter as for the year 2013 last quarter.So this year, Analyst are expecting Apple to have zero growth in revenue (Bring again this to PEG factor)For last year, this quarter, "For the quarter ended March 30, 2013. The Company posted quarterly revenue of $43.6 billion compared to revenue of $39.2 billion", Which is about 10% growth.So Google got, 31% and 19% growth, while Apple got 10% and 0%(Expected) growth in those two quarters.This is the exact reason Amazon has such a higher valuation, because their Growth is even higher then Google.Now if you compare PEG ratio for Apple vs Google vs Amazon, you may see the reason why some companies have very high valuation.Why did Apple stock reached $700 two years ago, you guessed it right this time. Two years ago Apple's revenue growth was in mid 20's and that's why it's stock was valued $700. (There was growth factor for Apple which is missing now)
Analysts don't look at Stock based onon their love/hate relationship like us.Now as far as Apple is concerned and if We talk about reality rather then thinking from love/hate point of view, you will see that Apple has already saturated high end US/Europe/Japan market. Other markets like Asia, Africa, LATAM prefers to go low end phones for their own reasons.For Apple to have higher valuation, they need to find new stream of revenue, which will bring growth back to Apple and in turn more valuation.Again Whenever you see the stock valuation, think in terms on PEG (Growth) and not just PE.
I have big investments in both Google and Apple from some time and I am loosing my patients with Apple too. If Apple will not show new stream of revenue by end of year, I am planning to exit my positions as well but I just have hope that they will bring something new which can bring growth back.
Nice post. But you must agree that Apple's PE is still very low, even with flat earnings. Ex-cash, they are valued at 6 times what they'll likely earn in 2015. 6 times! I agree with your sentiments about new streams of revenue. I hold out hope for the payment platform they're working on. Growth will return this fall. If they release a 4.7" and 5.5" iPhone this fall, and with their expanded reach with China Mobile, you'll see 30%+ growth in iPhone sales. Add in iwatch, Apple TV, iPay, larger iPad, and whatever else they may have in the works, you can make a case for earnings to increase by 30%+ in 2015.