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Apple announces 7-for-1 stock split, buybacks bumped to $90 billion - Page 5

post #161 of 202
Quote:
Originally Posted by drblank View Post
 

How do you expect the stock to increase by 30% if Apple HAS been at a 15% to 20% growth rate for revenues and profits from year to year?

 

 

Stop changing your story.

 

You said they were growing 15-20% the last year.

 

You were WRONG.  Just admit it

 

You said HAS BEEN, not WILL BE.  Just stop it. Everyone makes mistakes.

 

Its just mind blowing that a financial guru like you had no idea Apple was shrinking 12% in profits and you though they were growing profits 20%.  Amazing.

post #162 of 202
Quote:
Originally Posted by drblank View Post
 

Yeah, that was LAST year.  They took a dump. That's why the stock took a dump and it lost a lot of price in the stock since it hit the high of $700 and then went back down.    I think it's comparing what Apple's predicted to do from 2013 to 2014.  That's what they are looking at. is what they expect this next year which ends in Sept.

 

Stop changing the story.  You never said their earnings were shrinking 12%.

 

You said it was growing 15-20%.

 

Be a man and admit you were wrong.

post #163 of 202
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

 

The EPS comparisons that I gave you ARE YEAR OVER YEAR comparisons.  Not previous quarter.  Thats the way Apple presents their financials every conference call.  So here they are again:

 

Quarter ending Dec 2013 14.50 eps vs  Dec 2012 - 13.81. Eps grow of 5%
Quarter ending Sept 2013. 8.26 eps vs  Sept 2012 - 8.67. Negative eps growth
Quarter ending Jun 2013. 7.47 eps vs  Jun 2013 -  9.32. Negative eps
Quarter ending Apr 2013. 10.09 eps vs  Apr 2013 - 12.30. Negative eps growth.

 

And here is the link, I provide proof unlike you:

http://investor.apple.com/results.cfm

 

Its incredible that the for the past year you had no idea Apple's earnings was actually shrinking. 

 

You talk a big game with your Finance degree but at least I know how to read financial statements.

Yeah, what are they going to be at the end of Sept. 2014?  That's why they got to kick out the freaking iPhone 6 in June and start to slam business.  What I'm trying to explain is that Apple is NO longer a high growth stock and for it to REACH $700 a share, they would have to do 30% in earnings growth and be able to continue that similar growth rate, but they can't unless they do some major changes.

 

Now, if they are going to hit $600 a share, then they have to PROVE they can increase 15% to 20% growth in earnings.  Obviously, spit adjust the numbers down accordingly.


The conversations was trying to figure out what Apple HAS to do in order for the stock to hit $700 and what is more likely.  

 

The analysts are predicting about a 15% to 20% increase moving forward, but Apple has to kind of PROVE they can do that.  if they screw up and can't then the stock price will reflect it.

 

I'm more talking about what they have to hit in order to get the stock up.   They have a chance in hitting it, but that iPhone 6 has to hit the market soon, which I've been saying. The other person was asking about hitting $700 a share and I simply responded by saying that I didn't think they were going to hit it unless they start doing 30% a year growth.  I think you are confusing my statements with another person, we were talking about the potential future and possibilities.

From what I know about what they are PLANNING on releasing, I think it's safe to predict that they can do 15 to 20% growth rate moving forward because of the iPhone 6 announcements, yearly refreshes, and things like that, but I don't think it's going to hit$700 as the new plateau unless they continually do 15% to 20% yearly for several years in a row. So, I was speaking about POTENTIAL and LIKELY future growth. But Cook & co. have to kind of not play this release everything at the end of the year because it screws up production.

post #164 of 202
Apple doesn't need to realign its product releases. As you said, Apple has a different business model than Sammy. You have to compare Apple to other consumer electronic companies. Only part of Sammy is consumer electronics.

It's always better to have more demand than supply. You're fooling yourself if you think production issues magically disappear if the release schedule was realigned.
post #165 of 202
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

 

Stop changing the story.  You never said their earnings were shrinking 12%.

 

You said it was growing 15-20%.

 

Be a man and admit you were wrong.

So now you are mixing future predictions with the past.  You asked about Apple hitting $700 a share, right?  Well, I said they aren't going to hit it any time soon that I can tell because they aren't making 30% of profit anymore and that 15 to 20% is more realistic, and that's what I and others think is going to happen in the NEXT year.  And now you are bringing history on a STALLED year, which I said they had. before they screwed up, they have been having huge growth years, but that party is OVER.


Now, moving forward i'm just making a prediction based on what I THINK they are going to do over the next 12 months based on what I know about what they are planning on releasing, but they have to increase production of the iPhone to meet the demand.


So, let's keep the discussion on one page and not start confusing things.

 

I'm talking about MOVING FORWARD, can they do 15 to 20%?  Yes, it's VERY possible, that's why the 12 month target is $585 that was made back when the stock was trading at around $500.

post #166 of 202
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post

Apple doesn't need to realign its product releases. As you said, Apple has a different business model than Sammy. You have to compare Apple to other consumer electronic companies. Only part of Sammy is consumer electronics.

It's always better to have more demand than supply. You're fooling yourself if you think production issues magically disappear if the release schedule was realigned.

yeah, they do.  They have production issues since they started the slam everything at the end of the year approach.  MacPro is STILL about a month backlog after about 5 months.  The iPhone 5S took a while to catch up, some of the iPads took a few months to catch up.  They can't continue to do that.  If they are going to make 2 or 3 different sized phones, THEY WILL NOT be able to meet demand in a timely manner, which pisses people off.

 

Every time they release a new product, their biggest demand is the first 6 months and then it starts to trail off.  RIGHT? 


Why i THINK they haven't released the MacMini is because they are moving production to the US, just like they did with the MacPro, so that might be why they are delaying the product refresh.  They also might be doing the same thing with the iMac as well.

post #167 of 202
Quote:
Originally Posted by drblank View Post
 

So now you are mixing future predictions with the past.  You asked about Apple hitting $700 a share, right?  Well, I said they aren't going to hit it any time soon that I can tell because they aren't making 30% of profit anymore and that 15 to 20% is more realistic, and that's what I and others think is going to happen in the NEXT year.  And now you are bringing history on a STALLED year, which I said they had. before they screwed up, they have been having huge growth years, but that party is OVER.


Now, moving forward i'm just making a prediction based on what I THINK they are going to do over the next 12 months based on what I know about what they are planning on releasing, but they have to increase production of the iPhone to meet the demand.


So, let's keep the discussion on one page and not start confusing things.

 

I'm talking about MOVING FORWARD, can they do 15 to 20%?  Yes, it's VERY possible, that's why the 12 month target is $585 that was made back when the stock was trading at around $500.

 

With 20% growth that would be about $45 EPS.

 

To reach $700 that would only be a PE of 15.5

 

Google grew earnings only 20% last year and their PE is 28.

 

I guarantee if Apple grows earnings 15% the next 2 quarters we will be over $700 split adjusted

post #168 of 202
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

 

Stop changing the story.  You never said their earnings were shrinking 12%.

 

You said it was growing 15-20%.

 

Be a man and admit you were wrong.

I was talking about this upcoming year and the year after when you raised the question or statement about hitting $700 a share.  At the rate they are going, they won't hit that UNLESS they have a 15 to 20% year to year growth over the next few years.  Right now, if they DO hit 15% to 20% then they will hit and HOPEFULLY stay at around $600 and not go back down to $500. Pre stock split numbers.


You're problem is you keep changing things trying to make me look stupid when IN FACT you are such a coward you can't admit you were COMPLETELY WRONG in how the P/E is calculated as you brought up this 2 and 3 year BS.  So, admit your misleading crap.

post #169 of 202
Quote:
Originally Posted by drblank View Post

yeah, they do.  They have production issues since they started the slam everything at the end of the year approach.  MacPro is STILL about a month backlog after about 5 months.  The iPhone 5S took a while to catch up, some of the iPads took a few months to catch up.  They can't continue to do that.  If they are going to make 2 or 3 different sized phones, THEY WILL NOT be able to meet demand in a timely manner, which pisses people off.

Every time they release a new product, their biggest demand is the first 6 months and then it starts to trail off.  RIGHT? 


Why i THINK they haven't released the MacMini is because they are moving production to the US, just like they did with the MacPro, so that might be why they are delaying the product refresh.  They also might be doing the same thing with the iMac as well.

Demand will always be high at the time of product releases. Thats a fact. It doesn't matter if it's February, April, August, or October. Demand is high. Now they of course can start earlier but then it'll cause more issues for existing lines. I have confidence with Cook and his team.
post #170 of 202
Quote:
Originally Posted by drblank View Post
 

I was talking about this upcoming year and the year after when you raised the question or statement about hitting $700 a share.  At the rate they are going, they won't hit that UNLESS they have a 15 to 20% year to year growth over the next few years.  Right now, if they DO hit 15% to 20% then they will hit and HOPEFULLY stay at around $600 and not go back down to $500. Pre stock split numbers.


You're problem is you keep changing things trying to make me look stupid when IN FACT you are such a coward you can't admit you were COMPLETELY WRONG in how the P/E is calculated as you brought up this 2 and 3 year BS.  So, admit your misleading crap.

 

I know exactly how PE is calculated.

 

My point is the stock price is not determined only on the next 12 months.  Many stocks are valued on what they are projected to do in 2 years or even 5-10 years.  Just look at Amazon. 

 

With that in mind the PE which takes into account stock price is a forward looking metric.  One that goes far beyond 12 months since the stock price is estimated future cash flows 2, 3, or even 5 years down the line.

post #171 of 202
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

 

With 20% growth that would be about $45 EPS.

 

To reach $700 that would only be a PE of 15.5

 

Google grew earnings only 20% last year and their PE is 28.

 

I guarantee if Apple grows earnings 15% the next 2 quarters we will be over $700 split adjusted

Well, do you think they are going to hit $700 a share and STAY at $700 a share?

Here's what's been going on. Apple USED to trade at P/Es in the 20's and even 30's back when they were in HYPERGROWTH mode. But they AREN'T anymore.  Now, their new range seems to be as low as 11 and as high as maybe 15, if they are lucky.  That P/E ratio will dictate whether the stock is valued properly or if it's undervalued or overvalued.

 

Now, at 14, it's kind of pushing towards being OVERVALUED and when it's in OVERVALUED state, it doesn't last long.  So, a lot of people are trying to figure out what they NEW range is for determining this state.

 

They took a jump for a day because of the hype around dividends and the 7 to 1 split.  Right now, what's Apple trading at?  561 and a P/E of 14+.  Now, will it stay there?  who knows, we have to see how things get a little normal after the news once people get their head wrapped around yesterday's news.  That's what typically happens after news like this.


What I am looking at is more of their new PLATEAU.  Hitting a number is one thing, but STAYING at that price as a new plateau is another.  I thought that after they do their stock split, it might hit $100, but I HIGHLY doubt it's going to stay long if it does.  Time will tell on that one.

 

Now, if you want to talk about year to year growth rate, tell me over what time period.  From today to a year from now?  From the end of this fiscal year to the end of the year prior or the next year moving forward. BE VERY SPECIFIC on this, because you tend to confuse things and sometimes THINK I'm saying one thing when I'm not.

 

I am going to talk about over the next 12 months from TODAY.  So, I think they have a likely chance of earnings growth of around 15% to 20% based on what i know, but a lot has to do with how they deal with iPhone production increases due to a spike in demand with them releasing a 5 inch model, refreshing 4 inch models, as well as refreshing other existing products.  They CAN do it, it's just WILL they.

post #172 of 202
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

 

I know exactly how PE is calculated.

 

My point is the stock price is not determined only on the next 12 months.  Many stocks are valued on what they are projected to do in 2 years or even 5-10 years.  Just look at Amazon. 

 

With that in mind the PE which takes into account stock price is a forward looking metric.  One that goes far beyond 12 months since the stock price is estimated future cash flows 2, 3, or even 5 years down the line.

You do after I told you, but your earlier method was COMPLETELY WRONG.  It's based on the stock price at a given moment and the last 12 months of earnings and the earnings get updated every quarter.  So STOP YOUR LYING.  You mentioned something to do with 2 or 3 years in the future. NO NO NO.  That's got NOTHING to do with the P/E calculation.

post #173 of 202
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

 

I know exactly how PE is calculated.

 

My point is the stock price is not determined only on the next 12 months.  Many stocks are valued on what they are projected to do in 2 years or even 5-10 years.  Just look at Amazon. 

 

With that in mind the PE which takes into account stock price is a forward looking metric.  One that goes far beyond 12 months since the stock price is estimated future cash flows 2, 3, or even 5 years down the line.

It depends on the stock.  If you are looking at a HIGH GROWTH stock, then the P/E changes to reflect HIGH GROWTH.  But I still contend that Amazon is overvalued at P/E of 521.  I know the stock has done well, but their earnings aren't $hit.  $.56 a share earnings? In 2012, they lost money, in 2013 they made only about 274 Milion on $74 Billion in sales, which is crap earnings.  Why someone would invest in this stock is beyond me.  Amazon, from a stock perspective has been in hype growth, but in terms of actual earnings?  They SUCK!!!  I think Amazon shareholders are in for a rude awakening when they realize that stock has crap earnings, and will always have crap earnings and it's so overvalued, it's not even funny.  It actually might do what TIbco did back when they first started.   The stock went up really fast as people got hyped into it, and then BOOM!!! Nosedive and then back down to REALITY.   Facebook, IMO is also overvalued, but it's being treated like a high growth company.

 

Akamai USED to be in HYPERGROWTH mode when it first hit Wall Street, then it got corrected drastically, and then it got more back into reality.

 

That's the problem with some of these stocks.  


Edited by drblank - 4/25/14 at 10:09am
post #174 of 202
Quote:
Originally Posted by OriginalG View Post

Quote:

It'll be divided as well (but that was entertaining thought though, haha)

Ha ha! Yes, we'd all love $21 a share. One day in the future!
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post #175 of 202
Quote:
Originally Posted by drblank View Post
 

You do after I told you, but your earlier method was COMPLETELY WRONG.  It's based on the stock price at a given moment and the last 12 months of earnings and the earnings get updated every quarter.  So STOP YOUR LYING.  You mentioned something to do with 2 or 3 years in the future. NO NO NO.  That's got NOTHING to do with the P/E calculation.

 

But the stock price is based on future earnings.

 

The stock price is not based on past earnings.

 

It may be partly based on the last 12 months or the next 12 months but it also takes into consideration YEARS into the future.

 

So then PE ratio DOES take into account beyond 12 months.

 

PE ratio = Price of Stock (calculated taking into account YEARS into the future) / 12 month earnings )

 

 

So you see the PE ratio does take into account future earnings 1, 2, or even 5-10 years in the future.

 

Amazon's market capitalization is $140B. 

In the next 12 months they forecast earnings of less than $1B.

Using your definition that only takes into account the next 12 months that stock price is ridiculous.

But if you take into account 10 years in the future with compounded 25%-35% yearly growth you can justify its high PE ratio.

IMO, Amazon is still overpriced even looking 20 years into the future.

post #176 of 202
Quote:
Originally Posted by drblank View Post
 

Well, do you think they are going to hit $700 a share and STAY at $700 a share?

Here's what's been going on. Apple USED to trade at P/Es in the 20's and even 30's back when they were in HYPERGROWTH mode. But they AREN'T anymore.  Now, their new range seems to be as low as 11 and as high as maybe 15, if they are lucky.  That P/E ratio will dictate whether the stock is valued properly or if it's undervalued or overvalued.

 

Now, at 14, it's kind of pushing towards being OVERVALUED and when it's in OVERVALUED state, it doesn't last long.  So, a lot of people are trying to figure out what they NEW range is for determining this state.

 

They took a jump for a day because of the hype around dividends and the 7 to 1 split.  Right now, what's Apple trading at?  561 and a P/E of 14+.  Now, will it stay there?  who knows, we have to see how things get a little normal after the news once people get their head wrapped around yesterday's news.  That's what typically happens after news like this.


What I am looking at is more of their new PLATEAU.  Hitting a number is one thing, but STAYING at that price as a new plateau is another.  I thought that after they do their stock split, it might hit $100, but I HIGHLY doubt it's going to stay long if it does.  Time will tell on that one.

 

Now, if you want to talk about year to year growth rate, tell me over what time period.  From today to a year from now?  From the end of this fiscal year to the end of the year prior or the next year moving forward. BE VERY SPECIFIC on this, because you tend to confuse things and sometimes THINK I'm saying one thing when I'm not.

 

I am going to talk about over the next 12 months from TODAY.  So, I think they have a likely chance of earnings growth of around 15% to 20% based on what i know, but a lot has to do with how they deal with iPhone production increases due to a spike in demand with them releasing a 5 inch model, refreshing 4 inch models, as well as refreshing other existing products.  They CAN do it, it's just WILL they.

 

I have no idea if it will stay at $700.  Impossible to know.  If I knew that I would be a Billionaire many times over.

 

My personal target is $650 and then I'll sell all my shares.

post #177 of 202
Quote:
Originally Posted by SirLance99 View Post

Um....NO.....they are not. All 3 companies will continue to exist and make money. 

He means their hay day is over. Amazon is looking like reality is just starting to catch up to it, too.
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post #178 of 202
Quote:
Originally Posted by mvigod View Post

Funny.  Here was my reply from Investor Relations apple in May 2012 when I pleaded with them to split the stock.  This is a copy and paste from my saved email as I knew he would do a 180.  



When we announced the dividend and stock repurchase plan in March, our CEO, Tim Cook was asked about splitting the stock and here was his reply:
 
This is something that we have looked at while we were looking at this cash question. And the current information we have would suggest that there's very little support that it helps the stock. However, we are in a unique position and at a unique point in time, and so this is something that we continue to look at. And if we reached a decision that we thought it was in the best interest of Apple and its shareholders, we would do it. But again, at this point that's not how we see it. 
 
I don't have anything new to update you with today, but wanted you to have our latest public thoughts on the matter.
 
Best regards,
xxxx xxxxxxx
Apple Investor Relations

It took two years for your prediction to come true. Big deal.
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post #179 of 202
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

 

Stop changing your story.

 

You said they were growing 15-20% the last year.

 

You were WRONG.  Just admit it

 

You said HAS BEEN, not WILL BE.  Just stop it. Everyone makes mistakes.

 

Its just mind blowing that a financial guru like you had no idea Apple was shrinking 12% in profits and you though they were growing profits 20%.  Amazing.

I don't remember saying that, if I did, It was probably because I am running on no sleep for a few days (not drug or alcohol induced), but when i was discussing when you mentioned it being able to hit $700 I was referring to future earnings for the next year, not last year.

 

Now, admit that your P/E Calculations is TOTAL BS. I should you how it is calculated and you won't admit it. Now ADMIT IT.  It's based on current stock price divided by the last 12 months earnings.   PERIOD.  Yet you brought up this 2 or 3 year BS.  It's not based on that.  The stock price is what people are willing to pay at that given period of time.  Some people buy a stock in hopes of making money within a minute, 24 hours, some people buy stocks based on making some profit within 1 month, 1 year, 2 years, or whatever they feel like basing it on. 

 

Just to let you know, there are computers that trigger sales or purchases of stock based on whatever they program it to do and sometimes it's based on dropping in value dramatically or raising in value dramatically, or whatever perimeters they program it to do.  That's why there sometimes significant increases and drops based on some news.  I think they halted Google a while back when they screwed up reporting earnings about a year ago or so. 


But you mentioned this 2 or 3 year future price BS on calculating the P/E ratio and I showed you you are wrong and you STILL won't admit it.

 

Now, if you want to discuss something be very specific on the time frame you want to discuss because a lot of your BS i don't even bother reading unless you mention something that's worthwhile.

 

Now go run along and take some courses in investments.  You conjure up BS. 


Edited by drblank - 4/25/14 at 10:29am
post #180 of 202
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

 

I have no idea if it will stay at $700.  Impossible to know.  If I knew that I would be a Billionaire many times over.

 

My personal target is $650 and then I'll sell all my shares.

By what time do you expect it to hit $650?

post #181 of 202
Quote:
Originally Posted by drblank View Post
 

I don't remember saying that, if I did, It was probably because I am running on no sleep for a few days (not drug or alcohol induced), but when i was discussing when you mentioned it being able to hit $700 I was referring to future earnings for the next year, not last year.

 

Now, admit that your P/E Calculations is TOTAL BS. I should you how it is calculated and you won't admit it. Now ADMIT IT.  It's based on current stock price divided by the last 12 months earnings.   PERIOD.  Yet you brought up this 2 or 3 year BS.  It's not based on that.  The stock price is what people are willing to pay at that given period of time.  Some people buy a stock in hopes of making money within a minute, 24 hours, some people buy stocks based on making some profit within 1 month, 1 year, 2 years, or whatever they feel like basing it on. 

 

Just to let you know, there are computers that trigger sales or purchases of stock based on whatever they program it to do and sometimes it's based on dropping in value dramatically or raising in value dramatically, or whatever perimeters they program it to do.  That's why there sometimes significant increases and drops based on some news.  I think they halted Google a while back when they screwed up reporting earnings about a year ago or so. 


But you mentioned this 2 or 3 year future price BS on calculating the P/E ratio and I showed you you are wrong and you STILL won't admit it.

 

Now, if you want to discuss something be very specific on the time frame you want to discuss because a lot of your BS i don't even bother reading unless you mention something that's worthwhile.

 

Now go run along and take some courses in investments.  You conjure up BS. 

 

 


Edited by sog35 - 4/25/14 at 11:16am
post #182 of 202
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post


Demand will always be high at the time of product releases. Thats a fact. It doesn't matter if it's February, April, August, or October. Demand is high. Now they of course can start earlier but then it'll cause more issues for existing lines. I have confidence with Cook and his team.

They need to ramp up production from 500,000 a day to probably at least 600,000 a day or maybe even higher for the iPhones.  I know it's a tough thing to do, but what makes me VERY nervous is when they push product announcement to the end of the year.  I just know that it causes more problems in the long run and having more frequent product releases seems to relieve many of these issues.   Getting one or two new products out is one thing, but getting 20 out at the same time is a nightmare.  I just think they would be better off with product releases through out the year rather than a product dump all at once during a 30 day period.   

post #183 of 202
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

 

I have no idea if it will stay at $700.  Impossible to know.  If I knew that I would be a Billionaire many times over.

 

My personal target is $650 and then I'll sell all my shares.

Well, if you have a personal target of $650, then it will most likely be sometime AFTER it does it's actual stock split in June and when the stock hits $645, or around $91 after stock split, call your broker and put in the sell order for sell whatever you want to sell at $650. Then hopefully it will hit that number within a short period of time and don't worry about anything else if you plan on selling all of your shares.  But I don't think it's going to hit that number any time soon. If they spit out the iPhone 6 in June and make some other REALLY great announcements that will give some guidance on really good profits/revenue then it might hit it for a couple of seconds in June.

post #184 of 202
Quote:
Originally Posted by drblank View Post
 

Well, if you have a personal target of $650, then it will most likely be sometime AFTER it does it's actual stock split in June and when the stock hits $645, or around $91 after stock split, call your broker and put in the sell order for sell whatever you want to sell at $650. Then hopefully it will hit that number within a short period of time and don't worry about anything else if you plan on selling all of your shares.  But I don't think it's going to hit that number any time soon. If they spit out the iPhone 6 in June and make some other REALLY great announcements that will give some guidance on really good profits/revenue then it might hit it for a couple of seconds in June.

 

I'm not expected $650 till at least mid summer.

 

I'm not locked into selling at $650.  If things are looking really good I might hold on to $700 in the Nov time frame.

 

About my previous comments:

 

I think I misunderstood your comments.  Apologies.  you can ignore everything I said about PE ratio, ect.  I think we have an understanding now.  You were right.  And I was right.  I just misunderstood your previous comments. 

post #185 of 202
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

 

 

You are wrong.  You said Apple was growing earnings 15% the past year.  Earnings have been shrinking.  Just admit you are wrong.  Thats why the stock went up this time because EPS was up 15%.

 

Here are the numbers for the last fiscal year vs previous year.

 

Year ending Sept 2013 - Net Income $37,037,000,000

Year ending Sept 2012 - Net Income $41,733,000,000

 

Thats a DECLINE in net income of 12.6%.  Not an increase of 15%.

 

Unlike you I will provide a link:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=AAPL+Income+Statement&annual

 

Now its your turn to show that Apple has been increasing earnings 15% the last year.

And how was their growth in the years prior?  I'll admit to what they did LAST year, but what was their growth BEFORE last year growth rate?

post #186 of 202
Quote:
Originally Posted by drblank View Post

They need to ramp up production from 500,000 a day to probably at least 600,000 a day or maybe even higher for the iPhones.  I know it's a tough thing to do, but what makes me VERY nervous is when they push product announcement to the end of the year.  I just know that it causes more problems in the long run and having more frequent product releases seems to relieve many of these issues.   Getting one or two new products out is one thing, but getting 20 out at the same time is a nightmare.  I just think they would be better off with product releases through out the year rather than a product dump all at once during a 30 day period.   

To my knowledge, they aren't using the same machines/floor space/workers to churn these different devices out so why would multiple products cause an issue.

You know it causes issues? It hasn't so far.
post #187 of 202
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

 

I'm not expected $650 till at least mid summer.

 

I'm not locked into selling at $650.  If things are looking really good I might hold on to $700 in the Nov time frame.

 

About my previous comments:

 

I think I misunderstood your comments.  Apologies.  you can ignore everything I said about PE ratio, ect.  I think we have an understanding now.  You were right.  And I was right.  I just misunderstood your previous comments. 

 

$650 mid summer? I don't know about that. If they announce and start shipping the iPhone 6, it might hit that if they have enough promising news.  What guidance did Cook make for this current quarter?  I 

post #188 of 202
Quote:
Originally Posted by drblank View Post
 

 

$650 mid summer? I don't know about that. If they announce and start shipping the iPhone 6, it might hit that if they have enough promising news.  What guidance did Cook make for this current quarter?  I 

 

Guidance was decent with about a 10% EPS growth.  But if they blow out the number again we could easily see 15% again.

 

But what will really push the stock up is if we get an event showing the iWatch in July or August

post #189 of 202
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post


To my knowledge, they aren't using the same machines/floor space/workers to churn these different devices out so why would multiple products cause an issue.

You know it causes issues? It hasn't so far.

So Apple met demand for all of the products they announced and released last Christmas?  How long did it take them to catch up with demand?  Within 30 days, 60 days?  I know the 5S was backlogged for a while. So were certain iPads and even the MacPro.

If they are trying to keep up with demand increases, they have to increase daily production. In the last 12 months, they've sold 158+ Million iPhones (with additional phones in transit and inventory) and it wasn't recently (I forget the actual date of the article) that they reached 500,000 a day.  500,000 x 30 x 12 = 180 Million iPhones a year and that's without holidays, vacations, and working 24/7.  How the F do you think they are going to increase their abilities to meet the demand for a brand new size with a HUGE pent up demand AND a product refresh of the existing 4 inch models at the same time with only the MAXIMUM abilities to make 180 Million iPhones if they ran production 24/7?   IM-FREAKING-POSSIBLE.    

post #190 of 202
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

 

I'm not expected $650 till at least mid summer.

 

I'm not locked into selling at $650.  If things are looking really good I might hold on to $700 in the Nov time frame.

 

About my previous comments:

 

I think I misunderstood your comments.  Apologies.  you can ignore everything I said about PE ratio, ect.  I think we have an understanding now.  You were right.  And I was right.  I just misunderstood your previous comments. 

Check out over the last year's stock price, it took a nosedive during the summer months.  So, I kind hate to tell you, but they are GOING to have to release and ship the iPhone 6 and some other MAJOR announcements at WWDC and you better pray there is enough people to kick this stock up.  The summer months are the worst times to sell a high tech stock.  Just a generality.  You want to sell HIGH.  Remember, buy low, sell high.

post #191 of 202
Quote:
Originally Posted by drblank View Post

So Apple met demand for all of the products they announced and released last Christmas?  How long did it take them to catch up with demand?  Within 30 days, 60 days?  I know the 5S was backlogged for a while. So were certain iPads and even the MacPro.


If they are trying to keep up with demand increases, they have to increase daily production. In the last 12 months, they've sold 158+ Million iPhones (with additional phones in transit and inventory) and it wasn't recently (I forget the actual date of the article) that they reached 500,000 a day.  500,000 x 30 x 12 = 180 Million iPhones a year and that's without holidays, vacations, and working 24/7.  How the F do you think they are going to increase their abilities to meet the demand for a brand new size with a HUGE pent up demand AND a product refresh of the existing 4 inch models at the same time with only the MAXIMUM abilities to make 180 Million iPhones if they ran production 24/7?   IM-FREAKING-POSSIBLE.    

Apple always increases production every year and demand always increases as well. Say they meet demand for the first quarter after release, then what. They'll have to start drawing down production sooner than usual. When that happens, WS will flip out and sell.

Having higher demand is a good thing.
Quote:
Originally Posted by drblank View Post

Check out over the last year's stock price, it took a nosedive during the summer months.  So, I kind hate to tell you, but they are GOING to have to release and ship the iPhone 6 and some other MAJOR announcements at WWDC and you better pray there is enough people to kick this stock up.  The summer months are the worst times to sell a high tech stock.  Just a generality.  You want to sell HIGH.  Remember, buy low, sell high.

Apple didn't miss its expectations. WS did. Why should Apple be punished because of clueless analysts.
post #192 of 202
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post


Apple always increases production every year and demand always increases as well. Say they meet demand for the first quarter after release, then what. They'll have to start drawing down production sooner than usual. When that happens, WS will flip out and sell.

Having higher demand is a good thing.
Apple didn't miss its expectations. WS did. Why should Apple be punished because of clueless analysts.

A stock price doesn't usually reflect what they did the prior quarter, it's just based on what people believe will happen in the future.

 

I think you are confusing Wall Street with the market.  Who invests in companies?  Institutions, individuals.  It's just based on what people feel is a good price moving forward.  They didn't really do that great last year and the stock reflected it.  Usually in the summer months things slow down for high tech stocks, it's kind of been that way for as long as I can remember because people go on vacations (even most of Europe basically grinds to a halt for about a month) and high tech related products usually don't sell as well.  Overall, I don't think Apple did that well last year from a growth perspective, which is why people invest, they are betting that the company will grow in profits and that the stock price will in turn grow.  If they don't think it will grow, or grow as much as it was, then they will pull out stock and invest in something else that will grow.

The biggest thing that's been happening with Apple is that they are NOT a high growth company in Hyper growth mode that they've seen for over a decade and a lot of investors might have been in Apple stock because of that High Growth potential and then when they see that it isn't in High Growth anymore, that they decide to move their money into another stock that is in High Growth.  At least that's what I'm seeing and this started happening when they started paying dividends.  So, as a dividend stock, it's more of a stable growth (or at least supposed to be) company that's not in high growth mode and you buy it so that the dividends help pay you interest for just keeping the money in the stock so it becomes a safer bet.  It's just a shift in perspective about the company, the stock and what to expect.  I know some of these characters on Wall Street are idiots, but some aren't.  You just have to sit and actually listen to what they are saying and THINK about it and then they sometimes make sense, even if you don't want to hear it.   There are a variety of different ways to look at a company and sometimes you might not be looking at the right signals to determine if it's a good investment or not.  I got a little pissed when the stock took a dump, but when I sat back and looked at what caused it, I understood why.   It was just flat out overvalued when it hit it's high point.  I think that today's close makes it slightly overvalued and if I was going to buy into Apple, i would wait until that P/E goes down to something like 10 or 11 at the most, then I would consider buying into it.

post #193 of 202

What I think might be happening is that there are some investors that are triggering some pump and dump mentality that really have a good feel for when the stock is overvalued and undervalued and all they are doing is buying when they see Apple at a low and then dumping stock when it's at a high, which is basic stock trading of the concept of buying low and selling high.

 

IF you aren't doing that, then it's nobody else's fault but your own. That's the fundamental laws of getting into the market.


Now, there are mutual funds that had a heavy investment in Apple over the years because the particular mutual fund was investing in a certain group (growth) and if they don't see Apple fitting the requirements of the mutual fund, then they might decide to liquidate since their investors want the biggest ROI and if Apple isn't fitting the criteria they have for being part of the portfolio, then that mutual may dump stock, so that's PART of a large drop in price.

post #194 of 202
Quote:
Originally Posted by drblank View Post
 

What legacy s/w do you have to use  ActiveX running on IE6?

You didn't know XP is officially dead?  NO security updates anymore, so it's a target for TONS of malicious crap.  Surprise, surprise, surprise.

 

 

Yeah, I guess installs have dropped down to 27% of the PC run it.  I don't know what the total count of PCs are out there, but it's probably at least a few hundred million people have to switch.

 

iPads run ActiveX running on IE6?  I did not know that.

 

If you IT department still has thousands of PC running XP, I would highly question your employment decision.   Maybe it's time to work for a little more progressive company.

 

Of course I know.

 

I was pointing out that the 35% you quoted isn't all consumers.

 

If it ain't broke why waste money fixing it is a lot more prevalent than you imply.

 

They are being progressive, if they have to invest in updating legacy software, why do it on Windows?

Better than my Bose, better than my Skullcandy's, listening to Mozart through my LeBron James limited edition PowerBeats by Dre is almost as good as my Sennheisers.
Reply
Better than my Bose, better than my Skullcandy's, listening to Mozart through my LeBron James limited edition PowerBeats by Dre is almost as good as my Sennheisers.
Reply
post #195 of 202
Quote:
Originally Posted by hill60 View Post
 

 

Of course I know.

 

I was pointing out that the 35% you quoted isn't all consumers.

 

If it ain't broke why waste money fixing it is a lot more prevalent than you imply.

 

They are being progressive, if they have to invest in updating legacy software, why do it on Windows?

Well, if the computer you have been using isn't supported and there's no more security updates, I would be VERY nervous about future malware for that OS version.  That's what a lot of XP users may find out the hard way.

 

Well, there might be a lot of XP systems that are barely used, I can understand that.  If I had an XP system, I wouldn't use it either unless i had to.   :-)

post #196 of 202
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

 

The EPS comparisons that I gave you ARE YEAR OVER YEAR comparisons.  Not previous quarter.  Thats the way Apple presents their financials every conference call.  So here they are again:

 

Quarter ending Dec 2013 14.50 eps vs  Dec 2012 - 13.81. Eps grow of 5%
Quarter ending Sept 2013. 8.26 eps vs  Sept 2012 - 8.67. Negative eps growth
Quarter ending Jun 2013. 7.47 eps vs  Jun 2013 -  9.32. Negative eps
Quarter ending Apr 2013. 10.09 eps vs  Apr 2013 - 12.30. Negative eps growth.

 

And here is the link, I provide proof unlike you:

http://investor.apple.com/results.cfm

 

Its incredible that the for the past year you had no idea Apple's earnings was actually shrinking. 

 

You talk a big game with your Finance degree but at least I know how to read financial statements.

 

...and stock prices.

 

$571.94 ding ding*.

 

$535 was what he pointed out.

 

*I think Wall St still rings a bell at close of trade, that is my rather crappy portrayal in text.

Better than my Bose, better than my Skullcandy's, listening to Mozart through my LeBron James limited edition PowerBeats by Dre is almost as good as my Sennheisers.
Reply
Better than my Bose, better than my Skullcandy's, listening to Mozart through my LeBron James limited edition PowerBeats by Dre is almost as good as my Sennheisers.
Reply
post #197 of 202
Quote:
Originally Posted by drblank View Post
 

Well, do you think they are going to hit $700 a share and STAY at $700 a share?

 

Well once they hit $1000, negative reports from market manipulators will cause a drop to $700.

Better than my Bose, better than my Skullcandy's, listening to Mozart through my LeBron James limited edition PowerBeats by Dre is almost as good as my Sennheisers.
Reply
Better than my Bose, better than my Skullcandy's, listening to Mozart through my LeBron James limited edition PowerBeats by Dre is almost as good as my Sennheisers.
Reply
post #198 of 202

On March 19, 2012 AAPL closed at $601. Later that day Apple first announced they were going to initiate dividends and buybacks.

Like clockwork, naive fanbois convinced each other it was a great idea because fewer shares on the market will make the stock price go up.
It didn't happen.

Just 2 years later, April 23, 2014, AAPL closed at $524. Down 14%.
During the same time, AMZN went from $185 to $324. Up 75%.

Now Apple is multiplying available shares.

Why the complete turn around? Apple couldn't fool enough people?

As I have said before, just because a company makes a lot of profit, it doesn't mean their stock will go up.

No matter what type of media...movies, music, books, photos and web pages

look better and sound better on the Kindle Fire HD and HDX than any iPad

Reply

No matter what type of media...movies, music, books, photos and web pages

look better and sound better on the Kindle Fire HD and HDX than any iPad

Reply
post #199 of 202

Hello,

Does anybody know what the dividend amount will approx be after the stock split? Thanks.

post #200 of 202

Could it also have to do with accusations of other companies. Have a smaller stock price per share allows for it to be more easily distributed. If they buy Netflix... they can give share holders 4 shares for ever one instead of .5 of share. Just a thought, sorry if its been stated already...

 

Maybe someone can comment?

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