Originally Posted by hill60
So how long until Apple reaches it's peak of $700 per current share, again?
That is the "magic" number.
As Samsung slumps further out of the high end Apple will be there, still at the top, raking off the cream.
43.7 million is a hell of a lot of "tiny screened" smartphones.
I honestly can't tell you. I've been listening to the analyst's report today but the stream cuts off and I haven't been able to listen to it entirely, yet.
Here's what makes me the most nervous.
Production of the iPhones. They are making 180 Million per year. Now, I know the larger screen model is going to kick ass. I have no doubt in my mind about that. But, I have to look at how many have they sold over the past 12 months in total, look forward 12 months and see if they are going to sell substantially more iPhones than the last 12 months with the current production levels? the 5C's didn't sell as well as even Apple predicted. This is what makes me the most nervous since the iPhone is about 60% of their revenue and this larger screen, to me, is their biggest chance at making some serious dent in taking back market share from Android, but also making a more expensive phone with potentially good profit margin. Also, how is it going to impact the 4 inch model if they plan on refreshing that and replacing the 5C with a cheaper polycarb 5S.
It's not only HITTING $700 (or the new equivelent due to the stock split, which takes place in June), so we have to figure out what that NEW number is that's equivalent to $700. Actually, the new number is $100 after stock split.
What I would LIKE to see that would make me LESS nervous are the following things that would give me less nervousness about it hitting that Magic $700 (equivalent number).
1. Substantial increase in production output of iPhones. Be able to meet demand within the first FULL quarter after the product is announced. Also, I really think Apple needs to kick out this iPhone 6 (~5inch) by June and then the replacement for the 5S and 5C in Sept. I think they will have PLENTY of sales if they did that and that would kick in a LOT more sales during their typically poor summer months. I want to see 45 Million iPhones shipped in their WORST quarter and more like 60 Million in this Christmas, would be nice to hit, but unless they can churn out more phones per day, it's highly unlikely they'll hit 60 Million iPhones in the December quarter.
2. something substantially improved AppleTV box. I would like to see something other than what it currently is. I would like to see something that indicates that it's THE box to have and maybe two different flavors. 1 is the basic and 2 a much more enhanced product with substantially more features.
3. Some kind of release date of an Apple HD SmartTV. I really think they SHOULD be in this market and to figure out how to enter it and stay in it and to make a top notch product people will buy over the Google TVs. The market for this segment is growing FAST and it's getting up there in Worldwide sales and I think the price level is profitable if they do it right and Apple already has a pent up demand for this, whether people want to admit it or not.
4. Wearables would certainly help, but I'm not looking at a HUGE money maker, it's just like a little icing on the cake if you will. I see it as a good stocking stuffer type product line potentially.
5. I would like to see some form of new revenue from these auto deals. Do they make money from it? Or is it just more of our products integrate well, so when you buy these cars, it just means the iPhones work seamlessly. If they actually make money from each car that has this integration from it, that's a new market segment.
6. I do feel good about the future for China, that market is growing, they just need to get more stores opened up as they have been doing well.
7. Keep on cranking out new products and not take too long in refreshing a product. I think they could do better in attracting more Windows users to OS X if they had a few more models and in that between the MacMini and MacPro area, I think PC users, in general don't like AIO units as much.
8. I would like some type of announcement an addition of 24 bit AAC files and integrating 24 bit DACs. I don't think it's a HUGE money maker for the short term, but it will definitely help sell the entire Apple product line as they'll transition people from 16 bit to 24 bit a LOT faster than any other platform and that market IS growing. I think it would be more of helping sell moving to Apple and interject some more fire into iTunes.
I think if all, or at least MOST of these 8 things are done, then it's possible that we could see that $700 price within a year or two. If would certainly give me more warm and fuzzies, but it's also how LONG can they KEEP the stock at that price and that to be the next plateau. That's the issue. It's not only reaching it, but not going below it. If they have anything additional that's not listed, then I hope it's for the positive and it may replace some of the items I have listed.
Remember, whatever revenue Apple USED to make from iWork sales, OS X sales are gone because those are now free, so that is great to attract customers and it's great for Apple users to not have to pay for these, but they do reduce the profit margins as a result. So we have to be aware of this.
These are just MY opinions and they do not reflect reality, unless they come true. So this is all speculation. I just have to make that clear that this is what would make me less nervous about Apple hitting that magic number ($700 pre stock split, $100 post). I think it's a LOT easier for Apple to hit $100 a share after stock split than it is for them to hit $700 before Stock split, if that helps. They are increasing the dividends, which helps attract shareholders and hopefully this KEEPS shareholders so the stock doesn't make huge fluctuations.