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Wall Street impressed by Apple's surprise second quarter, analysts see stock headed to new highs - Page 2

post #41 of 110
So much for these pathetic anal-ists. They don't know jack shit.
post #42 of 110

Would be fascinating if somebody would do a study on the relative incompetence of various classes of prognosticators.  As a minimum the usual suspects would have to include:

 

Psychics

Weather forecasters

Race track touts

Technology analysts

Sports bookies

Etc.

 

I would have have to say that Psychics must be at the top of the list in terms of being always wrong.  But the technology analysts are undoubtedly right up there in not getting it right.  Weather people are a special class in that they at times don't even know what the current conditions are, much less predict accurately for the future.

 

Because sports betting houses make a living on it they are probably quite good and fixing odds.

 

The rest?  Well, it would be interesting

 

What would be a good metric for measuring the relative error rates, etc?

post #43 of 110

The all important question, when is the median and this include AI, going to call all these analysis and ask them why they were completely wrong, and why didn't any of their checks with supply chain root out the fact that Apple was doing better then anything they predicated, actually just this week they were expecting it to be worse then what Apple provided guidance too.

 

We know what will happen next, they going to take Apple guidance numbers and add 10% so they miss next time so they can short it down again.

post #44 of 110
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post
With 861.74 million shares the price needs to be $1160. Based on the 7:1 split, and not including any drop in shares from their massive buyback, apple will need to reach $165.78 per share.

 

Apple to $1,000,000,000,000 by… June 2015, then? Anyone?

Originally posted by Relic

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Originally posted by Relic

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post #45 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bluestone View Post
 

Would be fascinating if somebody would do a study on the relative incompetence of various classes of prognosticators.  As a minimum the usual suspects would have to include:

 

Psychics

Weather forecasters

Race track touts

Technology analysts

Sports bookies

Etc.

 

I would have have to say that Psychics must be at the top of the list in terms of being always wrong.  But the technology analysts are undoubtedly right up there in not getting it right.  Weather people are a special class in that they at times don't even know what the current conditions are, much less predict accurately for the future.

 

Because sports betting houses make a living on it they are probably quite good and fixing odds.

 

The rest?  Well, it would be interesting

 

What would be a good metric for measuring the relative error rates, etc?

I like your comparison,

 

However, I would say the poor weather guy got the odd stacked against them, since they still trying to prove out the science and you dealing with things they do not fully understand. So i give them the benefit of the doubt.

 

Psychics make stuff up, but people still believe them.

 

Bookies usually come out a heard so they mostly right.

 

But Stock and technologies, make stuff up, but the science is well known no need to guess at it and you do not have unknown forces meeting with a companies and consumers buying habits. So I would put Analysis at the top of the list as getting it wrong all the time and having the largest group of sheep hanging on ever word they same is Gospel 

post #46 of 110

I read somewhere and I am beginning to agree with the wisdom of it.

 

At first it made no sense to me what Apple would split the stock,it  just creates more share in the market and help devalue the company even further, more shares in circulation generally dilutes the value. 

 

However, what I read said this could actually help Apple with the issue it is having, so many large institutions own apple therefore they have more control over what apple does they force these issue we keep seeing. At at lower share price, apple could be own by a lot more individual and with more individuals in the market trying to buy share could help drive it up. 

 

We will see if that wisdom play out that way.

post #47 of 110
Apple is rocking again, watch out!
post #48 of 110

Everybody should spend the next 1/2 hour or so going over AI threads and posts from a couple of days ago before yesterday’s Q2 results. Simply mind boggling the negativity and the hilarious “Apple must do <this> in order to survive” comments and predictions. Hey, I’m just as guilty as the next guy but I generally have a positive outlook on the company because I’ve been a customer since 1982. All this “Steve is dead so all is lost” and “fire Cook now!” is kind of funny when you remember that between the iPod and the iPhone was a six year period of incremental upgrades and improvements. 

post #49 of 110
Wall Street is impressed. OK, now we have reason to panic.

Those Wall Street clowns are clueless.
post #50 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by Maestro64 View Post
 

I read somewhere and I am beginning to agree with the wisdom of it.

 

At first it made no sense to me what Apple would split the stock,it  just creates more share in the market and help devalue the company even further, more shares in circulation generally dilutes the value. 

 

However, what I read said this could actually help Apple with the issue it is having, so many large institutions own apple therefore they have more control over what apple does they force these issue we keep seeing. At at lower share price, apple could be own by a lot more individual and with more individuals in the market trying to buy share could help drive it up. 

 

We will see if that wisdom play out that way.

 

Well one thing for sure is what certain trolls will say when the stock split happens and AAPL is around $80. “Google is worth 10 times what Apple is,ha ha ha ha ha ha ha, bwah, ha ha. Google FTW!” When market capitalization is mentioned you always get the blank stare.

post #51 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by Maestro64 View Post

 

At first it made no sense to me what Apple would split the stock,it  just creates more share in the market and help devalue the company even further, more shares in circulation generally dilutes the value. 

 

If I exchange the $50 bill in your wallet with five $10 bills, does that make you poorer?

 

[When my daughter was 3, she would count her money coin by coin and declare "I have 7 moneys!"]

post #52 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

Are my calculations correct?

I am trying to figure out what the new share price will need to be for Apple to be a $1 TRILLION DOLLAR company.

With 861.74 million shares the price needs to be $1160. Based on the 7:1 split, and not including any drop in shares from their massive buyback, apple will need to reach $165.78 per share.

 

Maybe that was the rationale for the split (or at least one reason)... easier to convince people to keep buying up to $165 than to keep buying up to $1100+.

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post #53 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post
 

 

Well one thing for sure is what certain trolls will say when the stock split happens and AAPL is around $80. “Google is worth 10 times what Apple is,ha ha ha ha ha ha ha, bwah, ha ha. Google FTW!” When market capitalization is mentioned you always get the blank stare.

 

Apple doesn't fight spec wars.​ 8-)

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post #54 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

One day too late you analysis trolls.

Sure would help if they said this yesterday.

Anyway I don't listen to analysis and I held on to my 250 shares and did not sell when they were proclaiming doom last year.

Totally Agree !

Let's NOT FORGET that AAPL's All Time High WAS Above $700 !


WHY It Should Be Hovering NOW MISERABLLY Under $550 In The First Place ???

What Gives MORE THAN 20% DECLINE, and WHY NEVER RECOVERED SINCE THEN Despite ALL THE JAW-DROPPING and MIND-BLOWING EACH TIME CONFERENCE CALL ??????


Apple NEVER EXPERIENCED " Fiasco " Since They HIT All Time HIGH $700 !

IN CONTRAST, What About THIS " Villain's FAVOURATE and BACKED UP Enterprise " ?


Even After " FIASCO " of Google's Latest Earning Conference Call Last Week 16/April/2014, The Motley Fool - Ishfaque Faruk Wrote SUCH BOGUS ARTICLE !!!




Google Inc's Earnings Confirm Its Moat Is Stronger Than Ever
By Ishfaque Faruk
April 21, 2014 .


Google's (NASDAQ: GOOG ) been performing very well. The divestiture of Motorola Mobility benefits Google's robust margin profile. The company's market leadership positions in search, online video, and mobile operating systems are stronger than ever, and they will drive the company's stock price higher in the future.



NO ONE THINK SO !!!!!!.

" Google whiffs on Q1 2014 earnings with EPS of $6.27 " - BGR
http://bgr.com/2014/04/16/google-earnings-q1-2014/


" Google Shares Tank Following Q1 Earnings Miss " - TechnoBuffalo
http://www.technobuffalo.com/2014/04/16/google-q1-2014-earnings/


" Google misses earnings, revenue targets again on Q1 report " - ZDNet
http://www.zdnet.com/google-misses-earnings-revenue-targets-again-on-q1-report-7000028509/


" Google Earnings Miss In Early Disclosure Shakes Up Net Stocks " - Forbes
http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericsavitz/2012/10/18/google-earnings-miss-in-early-disclosure-shake-up-net-stocks/


" Google pleads growing pains as earnings miss expectations " - CNET
http://www.cnet.com/news/google-stock-slides-as-earnings-miss/

*whiff = verb

NORTH AMERICAN informal
(chiefly in baseball or golf) try unsuccessfully to hit the ball.



I'm SURE, If This Conference Call Result Were That of Apple, AAPL Easily Should Have PLUMMETED 40 - 50%, Judging From Their Favourate Phrase " Apple is DOOMED " !


" Google's CORE BUSINESS CRISIS ! "


HEY, WALL STREET, WHY ARE YOU SO GENEROUS AND LENIENT With Google, While SO HARSH Against Apple ??????


Google Big Missed Q3 Earnings Estimates



Google Reported Revenue ex-traffic Acquisition costs of $11.33 billion, well below the Wall Street Estimates at $11.9 billion.
Non-GAAP EPS of $9.03 a share was down from $9.72 a year ago, and DRAMATICALLY BELOW The Street Consensus at $10.65 a share.
Non-GAAP operating margin plunged to 27%, from 37% in the year ago quarter.


While revenues were strong, EPS missed TAC as a percentage of revenue increased, MARGINS SHRANK and Cost-per-Click was DOWN.

SOMETHING VERY CRUCIALLY DESTRUCTIVE TO THEIR CORE BUSINESS IS HAPPENING !!!!!!


There were problems elsewhere on the balance sheet as well, namely in Google's Core Department : SEARCH.


Cost-per-click was Down by 9 % Annually, although it was Flat Sequentially.


And "Click Prices Declined for the Fourth Consecutive Quarter after Rising for Eight Consecutive Quarters before then, " he said. "That's a VERY VERY NEGATIVE. This is the mobile problem. "



" Google IS DOOMED " !!!
post #55 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by tundraboy View Post
 

If I exchange the $50 bill in your wallet with five $10 bills, does that make you poorer?

 

Does a lower share price not make it easier for individual buyers to own the stock? Not everyone can afford the up-front cost to shop at warehouse clubs, for example, where you have to buy 5 pound boxes of cereal, and ball point pens in 20-packs.  There's a market for single-portion bags of potato chips, too.  Are there not some buyers who would have difficulty buying a share of APPL when the price hits $3,000/share?

post #56 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by HAMETA View Post


Totally Agree !

Let's NOT FORGET that AAPL's All Time High WAS Above $700 !

[Yadda, yadda, yadda...]

" Google IS DOOMED " !!!

 

Why must you shout at us, HAMETA?  

Furthermore, it's rare that I can even figure out the point you're trying to make.

What the hell is a "backed up Enterprise"?

 

(My Enterprise doesn't back up. Ever.)  ;)

post #57 of 110
Originally Posted by TeaEarleGreyHot View Post

Why must you shout at us, HAMETA?  

 

I love this guy, actually. He adds flavor. And reminds me of Time Cube.

Originally posted by Relic

...those little naked weirdos are going to get me investigated.
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Originally posted by Relic

...those little naked weirdos are going to get me investigated.
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post #58 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post
 

 

I love this guy, actually. He adds flavor. And reminds me of Time Cube.

 

I'm impressed by all the sizes and colors. That takes dedication.

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post #59 of 110

Notice how there's no sight of Constable Odo the resident anal-yst propaganda machine?

post #60 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post
 

I love this guy, actually. He adds flavor. And reminds me of Time Cube.

 

I don't know Time Cube, but heck... I suppose I'm glad HAMETA has a fan club!  Rock on.

post #61 of 110
Apple has raised its dividend , increased the stock buyback, and split the stock all in hope of rewarding investors for their patient wait and Apples dwindling stock price in a Bull market. Hppefully Apple has products in the pipeline that will be released soon. As for Apple beating the Anal-ists estimates. It just goes to prove that they really don't know much about Apple
post #62 of 110

It's weird how wildly untrue ideas about Apple firmly take root in the Analysts' discourse.

 

Here are just some untruths that I personally keep stumbling across:

 

1) The high end smart phone market is saturated.  Not true.

 

2) Chinese people don't want or can't afford iPhones.  Not true.  In a big way.

 

3) Apple must come up with new product categories to continue growing.  Not true at all.

 

4) Apple used to come up with new product categories all the time.  Not true.  No way.

 

5) Apple needs to sell low margin low priced phones to succeed.  Not true.  Lol.

 

6) iOS has lost the battle to Android.  Not true.

 

7) Samsung's new phone is crushing the iPhone.  That is never true.

 

8), 9) and 10) Well, you get the idea of my comment.

post #63 of 110
I see Fox Business is still pushing the whole 'board is worried about innovation' meme. They just did a segment on Apple and it was totally negative. Financial trickery to disguise lack of innovation, stock split will attract the wrong kind of investors, Cook is good but not great and certainly no Jobs, where are the new products, blah blah blah. Vomit worthy. 1rolleyes.gif

Can someone name for me the new products Google has announced so far this year besides Android Wear? And that's not even shipping on any watches yet. I don't follow Google closely so maybe there is this plethora of new innovative products that they've announced and I just haven't noticed. If there is I'd love for someone to name them here.
Edited by Rogifan - 4/24/14 at 11:14am
post #64 of 110
Originally Posted by TeaEarleGreyHot View Post

I dont know Time Cube

 

Maybe that’s for the best…

Originally posted by Relic

...those little naked weirdos are going to get me investigated.
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Originally posted by Relic

...those little naked weirdos are going to get me investigated.
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post #65 of 110
 
Originally Posted by BUSHMAN4 View Post
Apple has raised its dividend , increased the stock buyback, and split the stock all in hope of rewarding investors for their patient wait and Apples dwindling stock price in a Bull market.

You're just making this up aren't you? No, it had nothing to do with dwindling stock price in a bull market. aapl has gone up and down, up and down, up and down...what makes you think that this split/buyback/dividend increase was specifically to respond to the recent price decline?

 
 Hppefully Apple has products in the pipeline that will be released soon. 

There will be, absolutely. You say this as if to place doubt in our minds?

 
 As for Apple beating the Anal-ists estimates. It just goes to prove that they really don't know much about Apple

No, actually there are some pretty good analysts (dediu, turley, deagol) that in my opinion are actually very astute. I do think that it's getting harder and harder for them to predict/estimate supply chain due to Apple's expansion into various markets and its complex manuf./fabrication operation. But yes, by and large, I agree that analysts don't know much or are just bald face liars.

post #66 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeaEarleGreyHot View Post

Why must you shout at us, HAMETA?  
Furthermore, it's rare that I can even figure out the point you're trying to make.
What the hell is a "backed up Enterprise"?

(My Enterprise doesn't back up. Ever.)  1wink.gif

You never heard of "backed up Enterprise"?

That's when James T. Kirk parks that bad boy up at Starfleet Command. lol.gif
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
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"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
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post #67 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by tundraboy View Post
 

 

If I exchange the $50 bill in your wallet with five $10 bills, does that make you poorer?

 

[When my daughter was 3, she would count her money coin by coin and declare "I have 7 moneys!"]

 

I find it interesting that so many have no idea what a stock split is or how it works. 

post #68 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post

I find it interesting that so many have no idea what a stock split is or how it works. 

As long as it's nothing like splitting an atom then we're okay. 1wink.gif
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
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"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
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post #69 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post
 

 

Maybe that’s for the best…

 

OMG, What the F was that?!

 

WOW!

post #70 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by AaronJ View Post

OMG, What the F was that?!

WOW!

A better question would've been "How did you find that?" lol.gif
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
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"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
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post #71 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

I love this guy, actually. He adds flavor. And reminds me of Time Cube.

Same here. His posts are utter insanity, not to mention 'colorful.'

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #72 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post


A better question would've been "How did you find that?" lol.gif

 

Yeah, that too! :)

post #73 of 110

Well, imagine that. ALL of the analysts were wrong, ALL of them shorted Apple.

Again.

Like they always have done.

And been wrong.

 

How many times do they get to cry wolf before others stop listening?

post #74 of 110
Originally Posted by Evilution View Post

How many times do they get to cry wolf before others stop listening?

 

How many times do they get to cry wolf before THEY’RE FIRED FROM THEIR JOBS.

 

At this rate, I may as well become an analyst. No accountability and free money.

Originally posted by Relic

...those little naked weirdos are going to get me investigated.
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Originally posted by Relic

...those little naked weirdos are going to get me investigated.
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post #75 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post


A better question would've been "How did you find that?" lol.gif

 

What do you mean, how did he find that?

 

He wrote it!

 

Just kidding, TS... just kidding...

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post #76 of 110

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #77 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Maybe that was the rationale for the split (or at least one reason)... easier to convince people to keep buying up to $165 than to keep buying up to $1100+.

I'd suspect it does given the entire stock thing is so psychological, there seems to be zero actual math involved for Wall Street. I am many others have argued that a stock split would be a good idea for the last few years only to be told it would never happen and we were stupid by many 'experts' on this blog. Oh well, it's nice to see Tim agrees with us 1smoking.gif

I am disappointed the dividends are being split by 7 too though ... Tim what were you thinking? 1biggrin.gif
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Enjoying the new Mac Pro ... it's smokin'
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini.
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post #78 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

 

Nope.

 

More like $100........after the split. LOL.

After the split that $3.29 per share payout will be sweet!

post #79 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfc1138 View Post

After the split that $3.29 per share payout will be sweet!

I'm told the dividend will also be divided by 7. It will, however, get an 8% increase per share.

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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post #80 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post


I'm told the dividend will also be divided by 7. It will, however, get an 8% increase per share.

No, of course, otherwise that would be an insane increase, up dividends by a factor of seven?: I was doing a  funny.

 

ETA: Though there's a bit of room for that sort of misunderstanding given the emphasis on the $3.29 per share specifics and the pledge that it will "increase" going forward: well, no, the amount per share will per their pledge but it won't increase per share above that $3.29...., not for a good long time anyway.

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