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Survey suggests Apple could sell 15M more iPhones in US with larger 5" display option

post #1 of 69
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Apple might add as much as 30 percent to its U.S. iPhone sales if the company were to release an updated model with a larger 5-inch display, new survey data released Wednesday indicates.




According to Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty, Apple could move 66 million 5-inch iPhones in the U.S. next year versus just 51 million if the lineup stayed the same. The numbers were revealed in a Wednesday morning note to investors, a copy of which was provided to AppleInsider.

Huberty's findings come after a survey of smartphone buyers suggested that nearly half -- 47 percent -- would choose an iPhone over other smartphones if it came in a larger size. Apple would siphon off a significant numbers of buyers from rival Samsung with such a device, the survey said, suggesting that larger displays are a key facet of the Galaxy line's appeal.

A new, jumbo-sized iPhone might also affect Apple's carrier partners, providing an incentive for existing users to upgrade and take advantage of promotions designed to attract those who wish to switch wireless providers. This would most negatively affect ailing Sprint, Huberty believes, while boosting resurgent T-Mobile.




Huberty also believes that as many as 8 out of 10 iPhones sold in 2015 will be to existing iPhone owners, due in part to the exceptionally strong brand loyalty exhibited by that group. According to the survey, 90 percent of those who currently own an iPhone intend to remain loyal to the brand.

"Current iPhone owners value the software, brand, ability to synchronize to other Apple devices, and the App Store's quality and size more than the average user, which drives Apple's high loyalty rating," the report reads. "The top criteria across all brands are longer battery life, software / operating system, and lower price, though current Apple users think price is of lesser importance."

Overall, Huberty is bullish on the iPhone's future, leading Morgan Stanley to raise its price target on Apple shares from $630 to $690. That position assumes that the company increases its gross margin to 39 percent and trades at 15 times price-to-earnings.
post #2 of 69

I think with a 4'', 4.7'' (The one I will want), and a 5.5'', this will be Apple's year. Particularly if they include 20 hour talk time.

 

 

Along with the iWatch and AppleTV revamp.

post #3 of 69
Im looking forward to seeing the new design, a little more screen real-estate will be nice.
post #4 of 69
I hope they make a plastic iPhone 5s 1smile.gif a nice pocket friendly iPhone that is also future proof.
post #5 of 69
That would be a huge jump in sales. Samsung's leadership must be feeling concern right now. Or panic.
post #6 of 69

But how will I operate this device with one hand?!

post #7 of 69

I wish the bigger screen comes out…that way all this talk of iPhone small screen blah, blah will cease forever.

 

Lets get back to whats really going on here.... Apple's superior iOS Ecosystem and drop dead gorgeous hardware.

 


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post #8 of 69
Making them is the challenge, especially if they refresh the 4inch line up at the same time. I hope they can pull it off, I would hate to see it take them 6 months to catch up to demand like the MacPros are taking.
post #9 of 69
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post #10 of 69
Ugh...Katy Huberty. Get real.

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GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

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post #11 of 69

I love having annual upgrades with Sprint on the Framily Plan. I'll be ready for an upgrade early next year, probably in January. :) I hope the 5.5" version is released by then, 'cause that's what I'll have my eye on. 

post #12 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by 512ke View Post

That would be a huge jump in sales. Samsung's leadership must be feeling concern right now. Or panic.

 

Samsung is already feeling concern and panic. The first tremors started with the first iPhone and has led to fear and panic in the past year.

 

What Samsung's execs are feeling right now is the constant urge to shit their pants.

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post #13 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by DimMok View Post
 

Lets get back to whats really going on here.... Apple's superior iOS Ecosystem and drop dead gorgeous hardware.

^ This

 

Even with 4.7 or 5.5, it will work better and be better designed than any other 4.7 or 5.5 as we know them.

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post #14 of 69

If it's as big as the rumors say, I don't like it already.

I want to use my phone with one hand. And I don't want risking to drop it while trying to.

post #15 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by 512ke View Post

That would be a huge jump in sales. Samsung's leadership must be feeling concern right now. Or panic.

<10%.   significant but not huge (consider that means they move from 10% of the market to 11%).  YoY growth wise, this is pretty yawn... esp from the days of 25-50% YoY growth.   pretty much stay the course.

 

The 2nd sentence is more foretelling.   Cutting Samsung high end by 5-7.5Million phones (assume HTC et al get hit by the rest) , where they make real money ('all their money'), is a serious blow.

 

And... this is where Apple's long game is always strong.   Let Samsung et al develop the market for phones, do the general R&D, and then come in and sell the phone that is the 'upgrade' to all of Samsung's first time buyers.   This is how the iPod was sold, how the iPhone 5 was sold, and how the iPad was sold, the iPad mini was sold.   Android is the 'try before you commit' (all those devices in drawers) device.

 

In the end, there will be about 3Billion phones sold a year (in about 3-5 years).   If Apple steadily grows market share to 15%, that 450M phones a year in probably 4 main flavors ('cs' 'cp' 's' 'p') .   Even if Samsung sells 900M, it's not a big deal.   Because of that 450M, 25% (110M) are new users into their Ecosystem, which generates 20-50 a year in ITMS sales, and likely a halo into iPads, MBAs, and other high profit items.

 

All this says that phone sales are great, but the game being played is against Amazon, Paypal, and to a lesser extent Google for control of your 'wallet'

post #16 of 69
Excellent. Now instead of reporting market share, we will be updated on percent acreage.
post #17 of 69

Who did Katy poll? How many were polled? Was it just an office party poll? None of these polls mean anything unless we know how large and who the polled people were. Katy can be blowing smoke to justify her AAPL position. And don't tell me to look for her analysis on another website. The information is being presented here.

post #18 of 69
more speculation. while apple cares about profit, it's not their #1 priority. enough with the fucking rumors and the fucking analysts!
post #19 of 69
What survey if you asked consumers would you buy an iPhone on next upgrade if it came with a better camera, more memory, better battery, etc... they would all say yes as well since there is no firm commitment just a what-if.
post #20 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by ClemyNX View Post
 

If it's as big as the rumors say, I don't like it already.

I want to use my phone with one hand. And I don't want risking to drop it while trying to.

I already guarantee you don't. I'm sure you hold it with one hand, as I do. But as soon as the index finger from your other hand comes up, you're argument fails.

post #21 of 69
God help Apple if they release a 5.5" phablet. 4.7" seems like a perfectly good compromise for those who want a larger screen and those who don't.

I'm still curious to know why 2014 is the year of a big screen iPhone and not 2012 or 2013. Is it technological or something else?
post #22 of 69
One of the reasons the iPhone has been so successful is apps, and a huge reason why iPhone apps have been so successful is that Apple doesn't jerk developers around by having a ton of different screen sizes that developers need to support - just 2: iPhone/iPod-touch, and iPad (iPad mini and iPad are the same aspect ratio - iPad mini is the same UI slightly shrunk).

When they shifted to the iPhone 5, they made a big point of saying that this was the size they were going to stay at for a long time, and I think they will be true to that and keep to the current size.
post #23 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

God help Apple if they release a 5.5" phablet. 4.7" seems like a perfectly good compromise for those who want a larger screen and those who don't.

I'm still curious to know why 2014 is the year of a big screen iPhone and not 2012 or 2013. Is it technological or something else?

Like I said in the other thread when you expressed your beFUDdlement, you should know by now, because you have been TOLD so many times that it is a matter of high-efficiency, high-density screen supply, either LTPS or IGZO.

You look to be either hopelessly dense or a shameless crypto troll. I lean toward the latter.
post #24 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOtherGeoff View Post

 

And... this is where Apple's long game is always strong.   Let Samsung et al develop the market for phones, do the general R&D, and then come in and sell the phone that is the 'upgrade' to all of Samsung's first time buyers.   This is how the iPod was sold, how the iPhone 5 was sold, and how the iPad was sold, the iPad mini was sold.   Android is the 'try before you commit' (all those devices in drawers) device.

 

 

In their zeal to be "first," so many other companies get it wrong, giving Apple a good example of what not to do. Ironically, when Apple inevitably gets it right, other companies struggle to follow their example.

 

See, this is the mistake that so many iHaters make, that Apple always claims to have invented everything first. That's not necessarily what they do, as evidenced by your examples above. The fact that Apple gets it right does seem to create the perception among many that they are in fact "first," which causes the knee-jerk reaction by the haters to come up with so many examples of products that had such-and-such feature first.

 

Some day, the haters are going to have to realize that nobody really cares about who did what first. All we care about is who does it best.

 

PS: I still prefer a more compact phone, but certainly don't begrudge anyone that prefers a larger device. I look forward to being able to have a top-of-the-line experience at any size.

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post #25 of 69

I, along with millions of others, bought the iPhone 5 on the first day it came out in 2012 under a two-year contract.  That contract will expire late this Summer.  So, when I become eligible to start a new two-year contract, I plan to buy a new and improved iPhone and sell my old one to Gazelle.com or back to the Apple Store or ATT for $200+ and use that money for the downpayment on my new phone.  I'm certain there will be millions of other iPhone 5 owners waiting to do the same.  (Certainly very few if any iPhone 5 owners would have paid early termination fees just to upgrade to the 5S before their contracts matured.)   These new trade-in policies make the "cost-to-trade-up" programs practically free.

post #26 of 69

*I guess the 4S is still out there, but being phased out. They did the "budget" iPhone 5C with the larger screen.

post #27 of 69

I am surprised the estimate isn't even higher than that. Every single one of my Android owing friends (which is a wide majority of my friends) have said to me they like my iPhone and iOS but just can't stand the small screen. Even among my iPhone owning friends (with me included) have pretty much ran out of patience and have said that unless Apple releases a larger iPhone this year we would all likely switch to an Android. I think Apple severely underestimated the attraction and importance of a larger screen. That feature to me is far more important than any other aspect of the phone with the possible exception of battery life. I hope the iPhone 6 will be the first iPhone I don't have to plop in an extended battery case to go through a whole days use. 

 

There is so much pent up demand by dissatisfied current iPhone owners as well as Android owners that have been waiting for a larger iPhone that I see sales going well beyond even these estimates. I also think it is becoming more and more clear there will not be any new 4" iPhone with the possible exception of an iPhone 6c which will replace the 5c and just be a 5s in plastic. Not one single leak or rumor about a 4" iPhone 6. 

 

Never argue with an idiot. They will only bring you down to their level and beat you with experience. 

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post #28 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by gwmac View Post

 

There is so much pent up demand by dissatisfied current iPhone owners as well as Android owners that have been waiting for a larger iPhone that I see sales going well beyond even these estimates. I also think it is becoming more and more clear there will not be any new 4" iPhone with the possible exception of an iPhone 6c which will replace the 5c and just be a 5s in plastic. Not one single leak or rumor about a 4" iPhone 6. 

 

And apprently, Apple can still sell 44,000,000+ iPhones in the slowest quarter of the year, and smashing previous records, when there is so much "pent-up demand" by "dissatisfied" iPhone owners for a larger phone. Bodes pretty damn well for the company. 

post #29 of 69
Analysts seem to be always ready to jump the gun with increased sales for products that don't even exist. It's a nice positive outlook for a change but I'd certainly temper some of that enthusiasm if Apple intends to charge $100 more per iPhone providing that cost shows up in the initial purchase. The extra cost runs somewhat counter to the general reasoning of the commoditization of the smartphone. Apple would clearly have to have a product that stands out from every other smartphone on the market.

The boo-birds definitely don't believe Apple any longer has the innovative chops to pull off that sort of product. I can't see Apple necessarily building an iPhone that has all the internal sensors of, say, the Galaxy S5. Although I can't really imagine what Apple will have to offer to set the iPhone apart from every other smartphone, I look forward to whatever surprises Apple has in stock for consumers.
post #30 of 69
I don't want a big-screened phone myself, but it's absurd that Apple has let Samsung hold onto this competitive advantage for so long. Apple needs to be quicker on its feet in responding to real consumer trends. I know Apple likes to set the trends, but they need to be willing to follow if & when necessary. And that should have been with the 5 and 5S.
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post #31 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by Slurpy View Post
 

 

And apprently, Apple can still sell 44,000,000+ iPhones in the slowest quarter of the year, and smashing previous records, when there is so much "pent-up demand" by "dissatisfied" iPhone owners for a larger phone. Bodes pretty damn well for the company. 

No joke.  I want a bigger phone, but I am in no way dissatisfied.  In fact, far from it

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post #32 of 69

By sticking to the "old" metal form factor with the iPhone 5 through to the iPhone 5S, I am sure Apple saves millions in retooling costs, thus adding to their immense level of profitability.  Not having in-house factories like other manufacturers, Apple has to be careful that their production runs are long and successful, keeping demand (and anticipation) just high enough.

post #33 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by pmz View Post
 

I already guarantee you don't. I'm sure you hold it with one hand, as I do. But as soon as the index finger from your other hand comes up, you're argument fails.

The only time I use my index finger is if I go into landscape mode to read a specific webpage format or type a long message but that is rare. I hate anything but my one thumb to operate just a little more than I love a big screen. This is why I am happy with 4" and might never go above that size. So I will really need to evaluate a new, larger iPhone at the Apple store. It's the only way to really know.

post #34 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by RedHotFuzz View Post

I don't want a big-screened phone myself, but it's absurd that Apple has let Samsung hold onto this competitive advantage for so long. Apple needs to be quicker on its feet in responding to real consumer trends. I know Apple likes to set the trends, but they need to be willing to follow if & when necessary. And that should have been with the 5 and 5S.

Sorry to say you don't get it either. Apple has no or very little control over Asian display manufacturers of the newer technologies.
post #35 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by RedHotFuzz View Post

I don't want a big-screened phone myself, but it's absurd that Apple has let Samsung hold onto this competitive advantage for so long. Apple needs to be quicker on its feet in responding to real consumer trends. I know Apple likes to set the trends, but they need to be willing to follow if & when necessary. And that should have been with the 5 and 5S.

This is only a consumer trend in China and some developing nations where the average consumer can only afford one device to do it all. Now that doesn't mean Apple won't sell a lot of large screen iPhones. It just means that right now Samsung is not selling as nearly as many Note 3s as they would have you believe.

post #36 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by Flaneur View Post

Sorry to say you don't get it either. Apple has no or very little control over Asian display manufacturers of the newer technologies.

Oh please. So you're implying the only reason Apple hasn't dabbled in larger iPhome screen sizes is because of manufacturer limitations? Despite the fact every Android device maker on the planet has been shipping larger screened devices for years?

Riiiight.
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post #37 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by wigby View Post

This is only a consumer trend in China and some developing nations where the average consumer can only afford one device to do it all. Now that doesn't mean Apple won't sell a lot of large screen iPhones. It just means that right now Samsung is not selling as nearly as many Note 3s as they would have you believe.

Baloney. I see these larger screen devices popping up all over here in the US. I''ve heard people say they chose an Android device over an iPhone based solely on screen size. This is not a Chinese consumer phenomenon. Or did you not even read the original story above?
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post #38 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by RedHotFuzz View Post

Oh please. So you're implying the only reason Apple hasn't dabbled in larger iPhome screen sizes is because of manufacturer limitations? Despite the fact every Android device maker on the planet has been shipping larger screened devices for years?

Riiiight.

A couple years ago this could have been your comment...
Quote:
Oh please. So you're implying the only reason Apple hasn't dabbled in [LTE] is because of manufacturer limitations? Despite the fact every Android device maker on the planet has been shipping [LTE on] devices for years?

Riiiight

Remember that Apple has been shipping larger screens on an iOS-based device for a long time so instead of assuming that Apple will simply slap a display slightly smaller than the iPad mini display and call it an iPhone perhaps you should look at what differences Apple might bring to the table and what aspects of usability appeal to Apple in this space.

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"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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post #39 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by wigby View Post
 

This is why I am happy with 4" and might never go above that size. So I will really need to evaluate a new, larger iPhone at the Apple store. It's the only way to really know.

Say they don't release a new 4" iPhone.  3 years from now, what do you do?  Stick with your old 5S?  What if it breaks- find one on craigslist?

 

If I'm not mistaken, there aren't any top-end smart phones at 4" or less- Android, Windows, or iOS

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post #40 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by Andysol View Post
 

Say they don't release a new 4" iPhone.  3 years from now, what do you do?  Stick with your old 5S?  What if it breaks- find one on craigslist?

 

If I'm not mistaken, there aren't any top-end smart phones at 4" or less- Android, Windows, or iOS

I'm highly confident they will continue to release a 4" iPhone model for years to come. It is the most successful smartphone line ever and continues to grow.

 

But if they suddenly stopped 4" for some reason, I would just have to adapt to whatever Apple offers. That being said, I would choose a 6" iPhone screen over a 4" Android screen any day.

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