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Apple's recent stock price surge leaves prominent analysts projections in the dust

post #1 of 36
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Recent gains by Apple's stock have pushed its share price past some Wall Street analysts' price targets, leaving their forecasts underwater, while others could be next if the upward trend continues.

Apple


Among investment firms tracked by AppleInsider, three institutions are now projecting prices for AAPL stock that is below its current share price. The lowest is Maynard Um of Wells Fargo, who has a "valuation range" of between $515 and $585 for Apple.

That range is actually a slight increase from his previous range of $505 to $575 held a month ago. The price range was updated after Apple reported better-than-expected March quarter results alongside an increased capital reinvestment program and forthcoming 7-for-1 stock split.
Shares of Apple topped $600 on Monday, the first time they have held that level since late 2012.
Also underwater is analyst Ben A. Reitzes with Barclays, whose latest research note on Apple carried a price target of $590. That, too, was increased in late April from a previous price target of $570.

Finally, Charlie Wolf with Needham also has a price target of $590. However, unlike his peers, Wolf elects to update his price target biannually: once in February and again in August.

That means that Wolf's current price target of $590 may remain in place for another three months. His last revision in February reduced his forecasted price for shares of AAPL from $595.

Apple broke past the $600 threshold on Monday just before markets closed. That marked the first time the company's stock has reached that level since November of 2012.

Shares of AAPL remained around the $600 level throughout morning trading on Tuesday, which leaves a few more analysts in danger of seeing their own projections end up underwater quickly if Apple's stock price continues to grow.

Currently cutting it close are Michael Walkley of Canaccord Genuity and Keith Bachman of BMO Capital Markets, both of whom have price targets of $610 for AAPL shares.

On the high end, Brian White of Cantor Fitzgerald has held his projected Apple price of $777 per share for some time. The next highest followed by AppleInsider is Rob Cihra of Evercore Partners, who increased his target to $700 last month.
post #2 of 36
All of which makes it obvious they have no clue what they are doing and anyone taking their financial advice should call me, I have a bridge in London to sell them.
Enjoying the new Mac Pro ... it's smokin'
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
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Enjoying the new Mac Pro ... it's smokin'
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini.
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post #3 of 36

Why are they not fired? Why are we not calling for them to be fired? Why is Apple not calling for them to be fired?

Originally posted by Relic

...those little naked weirdos are going to get me investigated.
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Originally posted by Relic

...those little naked weirdos are going to get me investigated.
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post #4 of 36

Like being wrong will make them rethink their analysis of AAPL. Look, these people get paid to do research and make recommendations to clients. You win some, you lose some, but it’s the overall track record that gets you credibility. These analysts have been wrong more than they have been right about AAPL. Apple’s DNA is anathema to these guys. Warren Buffet has a big rule he follows when choosing to invest. He has said on numerous occasions to not buy stock in any company who’s business you don’t understand. 

post #5 of 36
I dunno -- I've heard bad things about the bridge market -- I think it's about to collapse.
post #6 of 36
I'm confident the bridge market will get over its current barriers.
post #7 of 36

these guys are still throwing rune stones and reading tea leaves

>>< drow ><<
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>>< drow ><<
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post #8 of 36
Then there's people like Constable Odo, who literally worship every words these guys say, and sets the stock price, and words of analysts and investors as the ultimate measure of Apple's success/failure. It's just another level of small-minded stupidity.

By the way, before I bought a bunch of shares in the 400s, for kicks I took my financial advisor's opinion. He expressed to me in no uncertain terms that this would be a terrible move, as Apple is only going to spiral downwards, and literally investing in any other tech company would be the better option. I told him I'd consider his "advice", and of course went ahead anyway. I actually also told my parents they should buy @ that price, but he convinced them not to. Just goes to show that people that are supposedly "educated" about this shit, and you pay big $$ to, don't have a fucking clue, and their advise is just random guesses- most often wrong. People should stop taking these charlatans seriously.
post #9 of 36
Of course everyone's projections will have to be restated/updated after the AAPL stock split in June. So they get an opportunity to re-jig their numbers without having to cop to the fact that they were a bit off this month!
post #10 of 36
Anal-ists. Not Analysts
post #11 of 36

In baseball, if you got a hit 50% of the time, you'd be an all-time superstar.  The same is true of Analysts.  If they are right half the time, they're at the top of their game.

 

My own financial advisor has been both right and wrong about Apple.  When I bought super low, the reaction was, "good luck you'll need it, that's crazy."  When I panicked and sold a third of my position around 400, my analyst said, "don't sell, this is the finest company in tech, you are crazy."  

 

Right now my advisor wants me to buy... railroad stocks.  International railroads.  To diversify.

 

I just think Apple is a good long term investment because, 1) the world is changing with technology becoming an ever-increasing part of our lives, 2) Apple has a culture of innovation and integration, and 3) Apple has boatloads of cash, so if they don't get it right today, you know they will have more opportunities tomorrow.

 

Those 3 reasons suggest, to me, that Apple in the LONG run will go and stay up.  I think the weighing machine will agree *ultimately.

post #12 of 36
What about Herman Munster?

Why does Apple bashing and trolling make people feel so good?

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Why does Apple bashing and trolling make people feel so good?

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post #13 of 36

Any thoughts; after the 7 to 1 split, how fast it will go back up to the current $600 per share price?

post #14 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by soward View Post

I dunno -- I've heard bad things about the bridge market -- I think it's about to collapse.

 

The bridge market is rising. Over time it will see many ups and downs.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #15 of 36

Most of these analysis work for investment banks or other financial institutions that hold hundreds of millions if not billions of dollars in Apple stock, short positions, calls, or puts.

 

In other words they are very BIASED.  If the company that is paying their paycheck is holding $300M in put options (betting the stock will go down) do you think they will be giving a high target price and a positive analysis???

post #16 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by 512ke View Post
 

In baseball, if you got a hit 50% of the time, you'd be an all-time superstar.  The same is true of Analysts.  If they are right half the time, they're at the top of their game.

Yeah but ... baseball is not a binary system. Analysts can get the direction right 50% of the time just by chance. An analyst who is getting 70-80% right will be a star, not at 50%.

 

The fundamental problem is that the way Apple works is not the same way that other tech companies work. And that the analysts keep basing their analysis on the general behavior rather than the Apple-specific one they have observed. 

 

When the starting premises are flawed, it is any wonder that the resulting analysis is worthless ?

post #17 of 36
ffs, why would anyone pay someone else a lot of their money to tell them how to invest their lot of money? you may as well take a hundred dollar bill for every hour you think about your investments and set it on fire.
>>< drow ><<
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>>< drow ><<
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post #18 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by drow View Post

ffs, why would anyone pay someone else a lot of their money to tell them how to invest their lot of money? you may as well take a hundred dollar bill for every hour you think about your investments and set it on fire.

For the same reason that I hire a plumber when that work needs doing. Difference is that plumbers generally know what they're doing and sometimes "analysts" do not. For people who are not familiar with investments, hiring a professional is a good move, but he/she needs to be good.

post #19 of 36
I think analysts should go to wall-mark, buy some wood & nails, then build a bridge, and get over it.
post #20 of 36
These are not 'analysts', they are 'guessers'.
post #21 of 36

Uh, there's absolutely nothing wrong with having a target stock price under the current price. For example, Blackberry is at $7.67 right now, and I predict a target of $0.

post #22 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by konqerror View Post

Uh, there's absolutely nothing wrong with having a target stock price under the current price. For example, Blackberry is at $7.67 right now, and I predict a target of $0.

LOL
Enjoying the new Mac Pro ... it's smokin'
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini.
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Enjoying the new Mac Pro ... it's smokin'
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini.
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post #23 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post
 

Why are they not fired? Why are we not calling for them to be fired? Why is Apple not calling for them to be fired?

Actually I want to see AI call them up and ask them why they were complete wrong, what about the market and Apple did they fail to understand. I put this guys in the same class as all the people over the past how many years who keep predicting the demise of the human race and the earth for that matter. They are all reading some funny tea leaves to the best of my knowledge.

post #24 of 36
I would never hand over my car, my home, my girlfriend or my money to another person. Each is subject to mishandling and abuse. Some things in life are best mastered on one's own.
I have enough money to last the rest of my life. Unless I buy something. - Jackie Mason
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I have enough money to last the rest of my life. Unless I buy something. - Jackie Mason
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post #25 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by Maestro64 View Post
 

Actually I want to see AI call them up and ask them why they were complete wrong, what about the market and Apple did they fail to understand. I put this guys in the same class as all the people over the past how many years who keep predicting the demise of the human race and the earth for that matter. They are all reading some funny tea leaves to the best of my knowledge.

 

It's not about reporting accurate news, it's about crafting headlines that will get clicks and help sell more ad space.


Edited by SpamSandwich - 5/6/14 at 4:51pm

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #26 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post
 

Why are they not fired? Why are we not calling for them to be fired? Why is Apple not calling for them to be fired?

i am imagining that this is dripping with sarcasm.  and therefore i will agree with it.  being $5 is not worth writing about, especially since apple stock is back at $595.  and apparently needham and barclay are off by about $10- i am not sure how much 'underwater' they are.  

 

according to appleinsider, if you are not overvaluing apple stock, you are not worth your weight in the stock market- something the author of this article can predict with more accuracy (at least with apple stock).

post #27 of 36

I really marvel at how Apple played Wall Street. So much negativity towards the stock and company, but Apple simply played it cool and caught the analysts with their pants down.

 

Tim Cook is made of real stern stuff. People were scared of Jobs, so they weren't so blatant about their bias when he was around.

Once Jobs was gone, the gloves were off, but Tim handled all of them - Wall Street, Analysts, Ichan, with clinical precision.

 

Tim Cook, the Iceman. Do not f*** with the Iceman.

post #28 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

All of which makes it obvious they have no clue what they are doing and anyone taking their financial advice should call me, I have a bridge in London to sell them.

I thought I bought that in the 60s.

post #29 of 36
The anal-ysts LOL is shifting thru their mouth... Only idiots would follow them
post #30 of 36

If   I had listened to the advice of my broker and so called analyst, I would not have bought Apple at $114.  He told me he thought Apple had run its coarse with new products. 
A few months late they came out with the I-phone.

 

That analyst now sits if a GA Jail awaiting his trial for stealing millions and faking his death off the FL ferry

post #31 of 36
Originally Posted by revenant View Post
i am imagining that this is dripping with sarcasm.

 

Oh, it’s not. There hasn’t been a single analyst correct about anything they’ve claimed regarding Apple.

 

In any other profession (except government), that level of failure nets you an immediate pink slip and ludicrously poor chances you’ll even be able to get another job.

 

They don’t deserve another job. They need to be fired NOW.

Originally posted by Relic

...those little naked weirdos are going to get me investigated.
Reply

Originally posted by Relic

...those little naked weirdos are going to get me investigated.
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post #32 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by RS9 View Post

Any thoughts; after the 7 to 1 split, how fast it will go back up to the current $600 per share price?

It may reach it very quickly, but bear in mind that it would give Apple a multi-trillion dollar market cap, so it might take more than a month or two.
iPad a Dream.
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iPad a Dream.
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post #33 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by RadarTheKat View Post

I would never hand over my car, my home, my girlfriend or my money to another person. Each is subject to mishandling and abuse. Some things in life are best mastered on one's own.

You would never give money to another person? So you're a thief?

Sorry.
iPad a Dream.
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iPad a Dream.
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post #34 of 36
 

So are some of the analysts right, since apple stock is back to $592? Or is appleinsider still right after apple broke into the $600 mark for a day?

post #35 of 36
Oh wow- those analysts were crazy- apple stock is still way above their... Oh wait, apple stock is in and around their estimates.

I do agree that with apple, a cash cow of a company, the stock market usually comes in low. But if the stock goes over their ESTIMATES can we really came them. It is hard to read as is. And if it goes up for a day, I am not certain it is time to nail them to an underestimated cross.
post #36 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by revenant View Post

Oh wow- those analysts were crazy- apple stock is still way above their... Oh wait, apple stock is in and around their estimates.

I do agree that with apple, a cash cow of a company, the stock market usually comes in low. But if the stock goes over their ESTIMATES can we really came them. It is hard to read as is. And if it goes up for a day, I am not certain it is time to nail them to an underestimated cross.

I do find it amusing how breaking $600 prior to corrections vs predictions of  $570-$590 is leaving anyone in the dust. In terms of percentage they haven't been far off and none of them are predicting

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post
 

 

Oh, it’s not. There hasn’t been a single analyst correct about anything they’ve claimed regarding Apple.

 

In any other profession (except government), that level of failure nets you an immediate pink slip and ludicrously poor chances you’ll even be able to get another job.

 

They don’t deserve another job. They need to be fired NOW.


They were extremely close on these numbers as of the past few days.

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