or Connect
AppleInsider › Forums › Investors › AAPL Investors › Shares of Apple, Inc. near ex-dividend as it gears up to distribute $2.7 billion to shareholders
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:

Shares of Apple, Inc. near ex-dividend as it gears up to distribute $2.7 billion to shareholders - Page 2

post #41 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post
 

 

I wasn't giving out any advice to anybody here. I was asking a question.

 

And I am actually a successful gambler. When online poker was still legal in the US, I was quite profitable.

 

I use game theory, statistics, math and psychology to win at poker, and I try to apply many of the same techniques to my stock trading.

 

You trade however you want, and I'll trade however I want.

Playing the stock market is a little different than gambling in a poker game.  There's no bluffing in the stock market.  You can't apply game theory in playing the stock market since you aren't looking at your opponents. All you are doing is looking at trends and some statistical probability, but do you run SAS or some other predictive analytics application when you decide what and when to buy?  

 

 

If you want to play Liar's Dice, I'm always up for a rousing game, but I don't cheat and look at my own dice while I play the game.  :-)

post #42 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by drblank View Post
 

Playing the stock market is a little different than gambling in a poker game.  There's no bluffing in the stock market.  You can't apply game theory in playing the stock market since you aren't looking at your opponents. All you are doing is looking at trends and some statistical probability, but do you run SAS or some other predictive analytics application when you decide what and when to buy?  

 

Yes, of course it's a bit different than playing a game of poker, but I still notice many similarities.

 

It's true that you can not see your opponents, but you do know who they are at least. There are other retail investors, there are big institutional investors and there are the MM's.

 

I used to get mad when I first started trading stocks when a stock did something unpredictable or unexpected, but I don't get surprised or mad anymore, and I just chalk it up to being part of the game. 

 

I try to base my decisions by looking at charts and following trends, and being aware of various support and resistance levels. I also try to take into account any current political or economic events. I am hoping that Russia invades the Ukraine, because those sorts of events can really move the entire market a lot, and I would try and take big time advantage of it, whenever an opportunity like that comes along. When the US govt shut down last year, that was awesome, so many opportunities to get certain stocks for cheap, or to do a bit of shorting, when certain stocks are collapsing.

 

I try to combine all of those things and read the charts realtime as they are happening. That is of course not easy, but I'm getting better at it. Some people use monthly or daily charts, the charts I look at are usually 1 minute, 3 minute and 5 minute when I'm trading.


Edited by Apple ][ - 5/8/14 at 10:23am
post #43 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post
 

 

Yes, of course it's a bit different than playing a game of poker, but I still notice many similarities.

 

It's true that you can not see your opponents, but you do know who they are at least. There are other retail investors, there are big institutional investors and there are the MM's.

 

I used to get mad when I first started trading stocks when a stock did something unpredictable or unexpected, but I don't get surprised or mad anymore, and I just chalk it up to being part of the game. 

 

I try to base my decisions by looking at charts and following trends, and being aware of various support and resistance levels. I also try to take into account any current political or economic events. I am hoping that Russia invades the Ukraine, because those sorts of events can really move the entire market a lot, and I would try and take big time advantage of it, whenever an opportunity like that comes along. When the US govt shutdown last year, that was awesome, so many opportunities.

 

I try to combine all of those things and read the charts realtime as they are happening. That is of course not easy, but I'm getting better at it. Some people use monthly or daily charts, the charts I look at are usually 1 minute, 3 minute and 5 minute when I'm trading.

The Government shutting down at this point is not something to desire.  Russia invading the Ukraine is also something I don't desire either.  

 

Well, the weather and geological conditions can effect the market.  Tsunamis, large earthquakes, hurricanes, etc.  

 

So, do you think Apple stock is going to go up or down the day the split happens?  My gut feeling is its going to go down due to some selling off portions of their holdings since it's had a fairly large run up and this way people can just sell off a portion of their withholdings to get some of their money out.  I've seen that happen many times before when there was a stock split.

post #44 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by thompr View Post
But some people want to get some cash without decreasing their share count.  

You can sell a 3-month call option on AAPL that you own (at a very high exercise price, so that the probability of exercise is very very low during that time frame) to get cash as well.

 

That strategy may not be for everybody, but a cash dividend is not the only way to get cash returns on a stock without decreasing share count.

post #45 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by drblank View Post
So, do you think Apple stock is going to go up or down the day the split happens?  My gut feeling is its going to go down due to some selling off portions of their holdings since it's had a fairly large run up and this way people can just sell off a portion of their withholdings to get some of their money out.  I've seen that happen many times before when there was a stock split.

 

That's a tough one, and that's why I'm currently not holding any AAPL at the moment. I only try to take trades when I am feeling pretty confident about my decision. I was prepared to pick up some AAPL if it had dropped on earnings day, but as we all know, it popped instead, so I am just waiting for a better opportunity and entry point for myself. I'd been burned a few times in the past on AAPL earnings, so I decided to play it safe this time.

 

I own some shares of MA, and the recent stock split had the opposite effect on that stock. After the split, MA has been doing very poorly, and it still hasn't recovered. It would have been better if it had remained an $800 stock.  I am of course confident in AAPL as a company and for the longterm, but what it will do after the split is a good question. Even though I am a gambler to a certain extent, I don't like the odds when I see them as practically 50/50.

post #46 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post
 

You can sell a 3-month call option on AAPL that you own (at a very high exercise price, so that the probability of exercise is very very low during that time frame) to get cash as well.

 

I discovered long ago - while studying AAPL's options chain quotes - that if you pick a strike price high enough that you'll probably not get those shares called away, then your premium is likewise so low as to make the entire exercise nothing but an adrenaline rush.  And even though I realized that, I dabbled in it anyway.  And guess what?  During one of these months, Apple went on an unforeseen absolute tear, and my "very very low" probability manifested as a reality.  I had to buy back in 4% above the price at which I was called away.  Or I could have walked away.  Without hesitation I bought back in, and I'm glad that I did, because it hasn't seen those levels since.  Anyway...

 

These days, I stay out of day trading and away from options.  With the exception of the temporary call option sale, I have held over 2200 shares of AAPL for a very long time ($12.33 split-adjusted).  Personally, I think that options and day trading are not a good strategy for the average Joe's livelihood.  Just give me my dividends, and I'll reinvest them.

 

Thompson

post #47 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post
 

I am afraid you're making it sound like there's a free lunch in this situation. There is none. 

 

If you bought the stock before it went ex-D, you would have paid (about) $3.29 more for it, so that you could get the $3.29 in dividends. Say, the ex-D price of Apple was $596.69. You would have paid $600 for it before it went ex-D. The $600 you paid -- in the absence of any other information or events -- gets you an ex-D stock price of $596.69 + dividends of $3.29 = $600. (Again, I am abstracting from personal tax effects).

 

If the stock 'recovered' (whatever that means!), it would have done so for reasons of other information or events. Let's say it went up by $5. In the absence of dividends, Apple would have traded at $605 because of the event. Ex-D, it trades at $601.69 (which is higher than the $600 you paid for it before it went ex-D), but it is no different from $605 = $596.69 (ex-D price) + $3.29 (dividend) + $5 (event effect).

 

There is no arbitrage opportunity here, in other words.

 

PS: Note that the same logic applies if the stock went down by $5.

 

Nope you are wrong.

 

The stock closed at $592.33 yesterday.

The stock's high today was $593.16.

 

If you bought yesterday at $592.33 than sold at $592.33 today you would still collect the $3.29 dividend.

 

So yes you could have pocketed the dividends for free if you bought yesterday at close and sold this morning.

 

Does this always happen?  Of course not.  But it happened this time around.

Apple Purchases last 12 months - iPhone 5S (two), iPhone 6, iPhone 6+ (two), iPadAir, iPadAir2, iPadMini2, AppleTV (two), MacMini, Airport Extreme, iPod Classic.
Reply
Apple Purchases last 12 months - iPhone 5S (two), iPhone 6, iPhone 6+ (two), iPadAir, iPadAir2, iPadMini2, AppleTV (two), MacMini, Airport Extreme, iPod Classic.
Reply
post #48 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

 

Nope you are wrong.

 

The stock closed at $592.33 yesterday.

The stock's high today was $593.16.

 

If you bought yesterday at $592.33 than sold at $592.33 today you would still collect the $3.29 dividend.

 

So yes you could have pocketed the dividends for free if you bought yesterday at close and sold this morning.

 

Does this always happen?  Of course not.  But it happened this time around.

 

Well, in fairness to the previous poster, he was not comparing how you ended up today versus how much you had yesterday (which is what the rest of us were doing).  He was comparing how you ended up today versus how you would have ended up today if the dividend had never happened, a different question.  He is suggesting that the dividend had nothing to do with today's profit (or loss) relative to yesterday, and I think he's likely right.  Without the dividend, the closing price could possibly have been $3.29 higher than whatever it was, making the dividend business a wash.

 

Thompson

post #49 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

Nope you are wrong.

 

The stock closed at $592.33 yesterday.

The stock's high today was $593.16.

 

If you bought yesterday at $592.33 than sold at $592.33 today you would still collect the $3.29 dividend.

 

So yes you could have pocketed the dividends for free if you bought yesterday at close and sold this morning.

 

Does this always happen?  Of course not.  But it happened this time around.

I am afraid you have absolutely no clue about what I said, and I am sorry that it cannot be explained any simpler than I tried to. Chalk it up to inability to communicate on my part.

 

You're most certainly welcome to believe whatever you think is true. Including tooth fairies. There's no law against it.

post #50 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by thompr View Post
 

I discovered long ago - while studying AAPL's options chain quotes - that if you pick a strike price high enough that you'll probably not get those shares called away, then your premium is likewise so low as to make the entire exercise nothing but an adrenaline rush.  And even though I realized that, I dabbled in it anyway.  And guess what?  During one of these months, Apple went on an unforeseen absolute tear, and my "very very low" probability manifested as a reality.  I had to buy back in 4% above the price at which I was called away.  Or I could have walked away.  Without hesitation I bought back in, and I'm glad that I did, because it hasn't seen those levels since.  Anyway...

 

These days, I stay out of day trading and away from options.  With the exception of the temporary call option sale, I have held over 2200 shares of AAPL for a very long time ($12.33 split-adjusted).  Personally, I think that options and day trading are not a good strategy for the average Joe's livelihood.  Just give me my dividends, and I'll reinvest them.

 

Thompson

I agree that there is a simplicity to getting cash from dividends. But the downside -- as you know, there's never a free lunch -- is that once a company starts to pay dividends, it begins to get viewed as an 'income' stock, and it attracts a completely different investor clientele. It's a clientele that then begins to push the company for a higher and higher payout, and focuses less and less on investing in growth opportunities.

 

I believe that many of us forecasted that, and indeed, we have seen exactly that, with Apple. Carl Icahn and David Einhorn were Exhibits A and B. More like them will come out of the woodwork as time goes on. They won't give up. They're relentless, like zombies.

 

Of course, Apple has already crossed that rubicon, so to some extent, it is academic. But as a general point, I was noting that selling options is one way to get cash returns on stock that you own, without the need for dividends or without decreasing your share count (allowing for the small probability that the stock could go on a tear and the options could get exercised against you).

post #51 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post
 

I am afraid you have absolutely no clue about what I said, and I am sorry that it cannot be explained any simpler than I tried to. Chalk it up to inability to communicate on my part.

 

You're most certainly welcome to believe whatever you think is true. Including tooth fairies. There's no law against it.

 

Tooth fairies?  You can live in your text book world but there was a free lunch today.

 

I bought the shares yesterday at $592 and sold it for $593 this morning. 

So I am getting a free dividend payment.  PERIOD. 

 

Would it have been $596 today if there were no dividend payment?  Maybe.  But I don't deal with theoretical situations.  I deal with reality. 

Apple Purchases last 12 months - iPhone 5S (two), iPhone 6, iPhone 6+ (two), iPadAir, iPadAir2, iPadMini2, AppleTV (two), MacMini, Airport Extreme, iPod Classic.
Reply
Apple Purchases last 12 months - iPhone 5S (two), iPhone 6, iPhone 6+ (two), iPadAir, iPadAir2, iPadMini2, AppleTV (two), MacMini, Airport Extreme, iPod Classic.
Reply
post #52 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post
 

I agree that there is a simplicity to getting cash from dividends. But the downside -- as you know, there's never a free lunch -- is that once a company starts to pay dividends, it begins to get viewed as an 'income' stock, and it attracts a completely different investor clientele. It's a clientele that then begins to push the company for a higher and higher payout, and focuses less and less on investing in growth opportunities.

 

I believe that many of us forecasted that, and indeed, we have seen exactly that, with Apple. Carl Icahn and David Einhorn were Exhibits A and B. More like them will come out of the woodwork as time goes on. They won't give up. They're relentless, like zombies.

 

Of course, Apple has already crossed that rubicon, so to some extent, it is academic. But as a general point, I was noting that selling options is one way to get cash returns on stock that you own, without the need for dividends or without decreasing your share count (allowing for the small probability that the stock could go on a tear and the options could get exercised against you).

 

I'm sure selling call options was a great plan the last 12 months. ......except the stock is up 30%

 

Options are the defintion of zero sum game.  Great for hedging common shares.

 

Your spew about dividend companies can't grow in value is BS.   When a company has excess cash (beyond what it needs for operations, R&D, and M&A) they need to distribute cash.  Since Apple announced their huge buyback last April the stock is up almost 60%.

Apple Purchases last 12 months - iPhone 5S (two), iPhone 6, iPhone 6+ (two), iPadAir, iPadAir2, iPadMini2, AppleTV (two), MacMini, Airport Extreme, iPod Classic.
Reply
Apple Purchases last 12 months - iPhone 5S (two), iPhone 6, iPhone 6+ (two), iPadAir, iPadAir2, iPadMini2, AppleTV (two), MacMini, Airport Extreme, iPod Classic.
Reply
post #53 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

 

I bought the shares yesterday at $592 and sold it for $593 this morning. 

So I am getting a free dividend payment.  PERIOD. 

Groan. One last try: you paid $3.29 more for it yesterday (before it went ex-D) than you otherwise would have. And you should -- and will -- get that $3.29 back. You got neither more nor less. 

 

That's not theory. That's not 'textbook.' That's just a fact. Investing 101.

 

If you can't get that, all I can say is 'good luck'.

post #54 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post
 

I agree that there is a simplicity to getting cash from dividends. But the downside -- as you know, there's never a free lunch -- is that once a company starts to pay dividends, it begins to get viewed as an 'income' stock, and it attracts a completely different investor clientele. It's a clientele that then begins to push the company for a higher and higher payout, and focuses less and less on investing in growth opportunities.

 

I believe that many of us forecasted that, and indeed, we have seen exactly that, with Apple. Carl Icahn and David Einhorn were Exhibits A and B. More like them will come out of the woodwork as time goes on. They won't give up. They're relentless, like zombies.

 

Oh, I understand that and agree.  But my hunch is that Cook and Apple have the temerity to deal with those zombies and end up doing the right thing.  It is my belief that Cook eventually engaged in financial engineering not because others demanded it and not out of desperation:  it was the fact that the cash hoard was just so damn huge (and growing at an amazing rate) that Apple could afford to run operations, make some acquisitions, innovate new products, and still give some back.  It was just the right thing to do rather than let it all sit there and grow to the sky.  People can draw analogies between what Apple has done and what others have done in the past, but the situation Apple was in to begin with was just plain unprecedented.

 

Bottom line:  the zombies don't frighten Cook, and they don't frighten me.

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post
 

But as a general point, I was noting that selling options is one way to get cash returns on stock that you own, without the need for dividends or without decreasing your share count (allowing for the small probability that the stock could go on a tear and the options could get exercised against you).

Oh believe me, I understand your point.  In fact, this has long been a popular suggestion in the blogosphere for how to "manufacture" dividends in any stock even if it doesn't actually pay one.  That's why I initially looked into it and found it wanting (but unfortunately tried it anyway).

 

I just hate the fact that this idea gets suggested but the risk/reward is never actually quantified.  If you dabble in this strategy and go for low risk, then the reward is likewise way too low.   It's just not such a great strategy at the end of the day.  But everybody's risk/reward tolerance is different, so maybe that's just my point of view.

 

Thompson

post #55 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post
 

Groan. One last try: you paid $3.29 more for it yesterday (before it went ex-D) than you otherwise would have. And you should -- and will -- get that $3.29 back. You got neither more nor less. 

 

That's not theory. That's not 'textbook.' That's just a fact. Investing 101.

 

If you can't get that, all I can say is 'good luck'.

 

No.  The fact is I bought at $592 yesterday and sold at $593 today.

I'm getting the dividend for free.

 

Now its back down to $589.

You need to be smart or lucky to get free lunches.  i got mine today.  $329.00

 

You can theorize all you want about it being priced $3.29 more yesterday because of the dividend.  Sorry markets are not that efficent.

Apple Purchases last 12 months - iPhone 5S (two), iPhone 6, iPhone 6+ (two), iPadAir, iPadAir2, iPadMini2, AppleTV (two), MacMini, Airport Extreme, iPod Classic.
Reply
Apple Purchases last 12 months - iPhone 5S (two), iPhone 6, iPhone 6+ (two), iPadAir, iPadAir2, iPadMini2, AppleTV (two), MacMini, Airport Extreme, iPod Classic.
Reply
post #56 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

 

I'm sure selling call options was a great plan the last 12 months. ......except the stock is up 30%

You didn't understand that basic point either, did you. For example, you could have got far more than $3.29*4 per share (since you brought up 'the last 12 months', I am giving you even more) by selling calls on AAPL for an exercise price of much much much higher than 30%.

 

Thus, selling calls (at a high exercise price) would have been a great plan. No, an insanely great plan. (But like all your comments thus far, that's by hindsight).

 

Please stop embarrassing yourself. Or not.

post #57 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post
 

Groan. One last try: you paid $3.29 more for it yesterday (before it went ex-D) than you otherwise would have. And you should -- and will -- get that $3.29 back. You got neither more nor less. 

 

That's not theory. That's not 'textbook.' That's just a fact. Investing 101.

 

If you can't get that, all I can say is 'good luck'.

 

You two are asking two different questions:  If I bought before close yesterday and AAPL closes today at yesterday's close...

 

Sog:  Am I better off today than yesterday?  Yes.  (I have more money today.)

 

Anant:  Am I better off today than I would have been if the dividend had not happened?  No.  (AAPL would have risen that much more and I would STILL have more money today.)

 

 

Sometimes you just have to ask the same question in order to understand another's point of view.

 

Thompson

post #58 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by thompr View Post
 

 

You two are asking two different questions:  If I bought before close yesterday and AAPL closes today at yesterday's close...

 

Sog:  Am I better off today than yesterday?  Yes.  (I have more money today.)

 

Anant:  Am I better off today than I would have been if the dividend had not happened?  No.  (AAPL would have risen that much more and I would STILL have more money today.)

 

 

Sometimes you just have to ask the same question in order to understand another's point of view.

 

Thompson

 

Problem is there is ZERO way of proving Anant's point:  Am I better off today than I would have been if the dividend had not happened?  No.  (AAPL would have risen that much more and I would STILL have more money today.)

 

I have 100% proof about my point.  Because I have $329 more in my wallet.

 

Anant is dealing with textbook and theoretical exercises.  I'm dealing with reality.  Going to have a pretty good free lunch at $329

Apple Purchases last 12 months - iPhone 5S (two), iPhone 6, iPhone 6+ (two), iPadAir, iPadAir2, iPadMini2, AppleTV (two), MacMini, Airport Extreme, iPod Classic.
Reply
Apple Purchases last 12 months - iPhone 5S (two), iPhone 6, iPhone 6+ (two), iPadAir, iPadAir2, iPadMini2, AppleTV (two), MacMini, Airport Extreme, iPod Classic.
Reply
post #59 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post
 

You didn't understand that basic point either, did you. For example, you could have got far more than $3.29*4 per share (since you brought up 'the last 12 months', I am giving you even more) by selling calls on AAPL for an exercise price of much much much higher than 30%.

 

Thus, selling calls (at a high exercise price) would have been a great plan. No, an insanely great plan. (But like all your comments thus far, that's by hindsight).

 

Please stop embarrassing yourself. Or not.

 

selling options is not a guarantee for profits.

dividends are pretty close to guaranteed.

Apple Purchases last 12 months - iPhone 5S (two), iPhone 6, iPhone 6+ (two), iPadAir, iPadAir2, iPadMini2, AppleTV (two), MacMini, Airport Extreme, iPod Classic.
Reply
Apple Purchases last 12 months - iPhone 5S (two), iPhone 6, iPhone 6+ (two), iPadAir, iPadAir2, iPadMini2, AppleTV (two), MacMini, Airport Extreme, iPod Classic.
Reply
post #60 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by drblank View Post
 

So it sounds like you are a day trader.  Sorry, I stay away from those types of investors.  Sorry...  Please don't respond to my comments anymore.

 

 

Classic.

 

He's the guy who responds first and then tells him not to respond.

I mean really?

Apple Purchases last 12 months - iPhone 5S (two), iPhone 6, iPhone 6+ (two), iPadAir, iPadAir2, iPadMini2, AppleTV (two), MacMini, Airport Extreme, iPod Classic.
Reply
Apple Purchases last 12 months - iPhone 5S (two), iPhone 6, iPhone 6+ (two), iPadAir, iPadAir2, iPadMini2, AppleTV (two), MacMini, Airport Extreme, iPod Classic.
Reply
post #61 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by thompr View Post

 

You two are asking two different questions:  If I bought before close yesterday and AAPL closes today at yesterday's close...

 

Sog:  Am I better off today than yesterday?  Yes.  (I have more money today.)

 

Anant:  Am I better off today than I would have been if the dividend had not happened?  No.  (AAPL would have risen that much more and I would STILL have more money today.)

 

 

Sometimes you just have to ask the same question in order to understand another's point of view.

 

Thompson

Um. Not quite.

 

sog35's feeling better off today has nothing whatsoever to do with dividends. And my point has nothing whatsoever to do with 'if the dividend had not happened.'

 

One final try. There are only two possibilities. He either (1) bought the stock before it went ex-D, or (2) after it went ex-D. If X was the price before the stock went ex-D -- e.g., yesterday -- under possibility (1), he paid X for the stock. Under possibility (2) -- e.g., today -- he paid X minus $3.29.

 

Plus or minus whatever else the stock did today which had nothing to do with the $3.29.....

 

Anyhow, got to move along.

post #62 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post
 

Um. Not quite.

 

sog35's feeling better off today has nothing whatsoever to do with dividends. And my point has nothing whatsoever to do with 'if the dividend had not happened.'

 

One final try. There are only two possibilities. He either (1) bought the stock before it went ex-D, or (2) after it went ex-D. If X was the price before the stock went ex-D -- e.g., yesterday -- under possibility (1), he paid X for the stock. Under possibility (2) -- e.g., today -- he paid X minus $3.29.

 

Plus or minus whatever else the stock did today which had nothing to do with the $3.29.....

 

Anyhow, got to move along.

 

All I know is I'm getting $329 next week and it has EVERYTHING to do with dividends.

 

Again you can live in your textbook world but I choose reality.

 

Do you get a free lunch every time you play dividend day? No.  But I did this time.  Deal with it.

Apple Purchases last 12 months - iPhone 5S (two), iPhone 6, iPhone 6+ (two), iPadAir, iPadAir2, iPadMini2, AppleTV (two), MacMini, Airport Extreme, iPod Classic.
Reply
Apple Purchases last 12 months - iPhone 5S (two), iPhone 6, iPhone 6+ (two), iPadAir, iPadAir2, iPadMini2, AppleTV (two), MacMini, Airport Extreme, iPod Classic.
Reply
post #63 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

Problem is there is ZERO way of proving Anant's point:  Am I better off today than I would have been if the dividend had not happened?  No.  (AAPL would have risen that much more and I would STILL have more money today.)

I have 100% proof about my point.  Because I have $329 more in my wallet.

Anant is dealing with textbook and theoretical exercises.  I'm dealing with reality.  Going to have a pretty good free lunch at $329

Yes, and on May 15th I'll be enjoying somewhere around 12 more shares of AAPL in my portfolio... potentially discounted per theory. But you are right, there's no way to prove it. Plus, I believe that Apple's cash hoard is somewhat discounted with respect to share price, so I don't think Anant is 100% correct in the long run. Again, no way to prove.

Thompson
post #64 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post
 

One final try. There are only two possibilities. He either (1) bought the stock before it went ex-D, or (2) after it went ex-D. If X was the price before the stock went ex-D -- e.g., yesterday -- under possibility (1), he paid X for the stock. Under possibility (2) -- e.g., today -- he paid X minus $3.29.

 

Well, that's true, assuming he could have bought early enough to snag it at X-$3.29.  He would have had to do that during pre-market, because it opened regular hours higher than that.  I don't know what this morning's chart looked like in the pre-market.  May not have been possible.  Some brokers, such as mine, don't do pre-market.  And the price may have climbed up from X-$3.29 fairly swiftly anyway.  With all of those unknowns, it looks like he did a fine trade in retrospect.  Not that I would ever try to emulate it.  I don't trade, and I don't recommend it in general.

 

Thompson

post #65 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by thompr View Post


Yes, and on May 15th I'll be enjoying somewhere around 12 more shares of AAPL in my portfolio... potentially discounted per theory. But you are right, there's no way to prove it. Plus, I believe that Apple's cash hoard is somewhat discounted with respect to share price, so I don't think Anant is 100% correct in the long run. Again, no way to prove.

Thompson

 

so we both win.

nothing to complain about.

Apple Purchases last 12 months - iPhone 5S (two), iPhone 6, iPhone 6+ (two), iPadAir, iPadAir2, iPadMini2, AppleTV (two), MacMini, Airport Extreme, iPod Classic.
Reply
Apple Purchases last 12 months - iPhone 5S (two), iPhone 6, iPhone 6+ (two), iPadAir, iPadAir2, iPadMini2, AppleTV (two), MacMini, Airport Extreme, iPod Classic.
Reply
post #66 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by thompr View Post
Some brokers, such as mine, don't do pre-market.  

 

I think that most do, and mine has even extended their pre/after market hours. 

 

Before, the earliest I could trade was 7 AM premarket, now it's 6 AM - 8 PM.

post #67 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by thompr View Post
He would have had to do that during pre-market, because it opened regular hours higher than that.  I don't know what this morning's chart looked like in the pre-market.  

Funny you should ask.

 

Between 8AM - 9AM, the pre-market price was $3.35 below yesterday's close (I had Squawk Box on in the background). I recall thinking, 'wow, that's almost precisely ex-D'!

post #68 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

All I know is I'm getting $329 next week and it has EVERYTHING to do with dividends.

What you don't seem to realize is, you've already paid that $329, and you're simply -- as you should -- getting it back!:lol:

post #69 of 72

I thought of this once - buy a stock at the last possible minute to get the dividend (which would be called the ex-dividend date if my jargon is correct) then "immediately" sell it right (which would be the next morning).

 

Trouble is that exchanges seem to automatically adjust the bid and offer prices, subtracting off the per-share dividend from the share price.  So if you could do it perfectly - buy at the last possible second of the ex-dividend day and sell at the first possible second of the next day - you will record a capital loss on the trade, and eventually you'll get a dividend in exactly the same amount.  And you'll even lose a bit because of trading fees.

post #70 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clinton Weir View Post

I thought of this once - buy a stock at the last possible minute to get the dividend (which would be called the ex-dividend date if my jargon is correct) then "immediately" sell it right (which would be the next morning).

Trouble is that exchanges seem to automatically adjust the bid and offer prices, subtracting off the per-share dividend from the share price.  So if you could do it perfectly - buy at the last possible second of the ex-dividend day and sell at the first possible second of the next day - you will record a capital loss on the trade, and eventually you'll get a dividend in exactly the same amount.  And you'll even lose a bit because of trading fees.

Well explained.
From Apple ][ - to new Mac Pro I've used them all.
Long on AAPL so biased
"Google doesn't sell you anything, they just sell you!"
Reply
From Apple ][ - to new Mac Pro I've used them all.
Long on AAPL so biased
"Google doesn't sell you anything, they just sell you!"
Reply
post #71 of 72

At $592 a share, a $3.29 dividend is slightly more than 1/2% (0.5557%). 

 

Whether it's 1 day or 1 week before becoming "shareholder of record", why risk your money for measly returns like that.

There are thousand of stocks that can make you more money during intraday fluctuations.

A stock with just 2% gains is 4x better than buying AAPL for it's dividends.

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post
 

I'm not claiming that this would be a good idea or even profitable, but technically speaking, I assume that somebody could buy some shares of AAPL on Monday, May 12 at 3:59 PM, and then dump all those shares on Tuesday, May 13 at 6:01 AM, and still receive the dividend? Is that correct? 

 

The times listed are EST.

No matter what type of media...movies, music, books, photos and web pages

look better and sound better on the Kindle Fire HD and HDX than any iPad

Reply

No matter what type of media...movies, music, books, photos and web pages

look better and sound better on the Kindle Fire HD and HDX than any iPad

Reply
post #72 of 72

Two months before both dividend and buyback increases in 2013 & 2014, Einhorn and Icahn were demanding better returns for investors.

How many clueless fanbois here chided them for it? They should be thanking them.

 

 

March 19, 2012 Apple announced dividends of $2.65 per share and allocated $10 billion for buybacks to be executed over 3 years. At that time AAPL was at $601.

 

February 7, 2013 Einhorn filed a suit against Apple to release part of it's $137 billion capital to shareholders. 

April 23, 2013 Apple increased dividends to $3.05 and buybacks to $60 billion. AAPL $406.

 

December 4, 2013 Icahn pushed for Apple to buy back $50 billion of stock for the upcoming year.

April 23, 2014 dividends increased to $3.29, buybacks to $90 billion plus a 7-1 stock split. AAPL $524.

 

 

Do you see a pattern? If AAPL continues to do poorly, what do you think is going to happen in 2015?

 

 

 

Quote:

Originally Posted by revenant View Post
 

if it was at all possible, i would buy back all of carl ichan's stock.  get that guy out before he tries another ridiculous stunt.

No matter what type of media...movies, music, books, photos and web pages

look better and sound better on the Kindle Fire HD and HDX than any iPad

Reply

No matter what type of media...movies, music, books, photos and web pages

look better and sound better on the Kindle Fire HD and HDX than any iPad

Reply
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:
  Return Home
  Back to Forum: AAPL Investors
AppleInsider › Forums › Investors › AAPL Investors › Shares of Apple, Inc. near ex-dividend as it gears up to distribute $2.7 billion to shareholders