Originally Posted by mpantone
That's a curious approach.
Now let's say you weren't feeling well. Would you rather go to five doctors, have each one give you a different diagnosis, then try to "average" it out? Same with your car. Let's say it's acting up. Would you like to go to five mechanics?
I'd rather go to one person who gets it right. My time is valuable to me, just put me in touch with someone who knows what they are doing.
But that's just me...
The funny thing is that all of these anal-ysts run businesses that purport that they are the sole keepers of the "right analysis" and that you should shell out your hard-earned cash for their accuracy. Now since they can't all be right, most are getting paid even though they are wrong.
That's the basic problem with tech media sites quoting these anal-ysts willy-nilly without doing any sort of due diligence in tracking accuracy. Quoting every single anal-yst generates page views, but it doesn't provide any knowledge or wisdom, it's just a big pile of data: a little of it good, most of it bad, some of it EXTREMELY BAD.
Well, how do you determine who's right? How can you be so sure they are right? Especially when they getting numbers from companies that aren't publicly traded and publicly release their numbers. I look at BareFigures for Apple numbers since that's who they get their info from.
Now, in terms of the companies that don't report actual sales, how do you know who's right and who's wrong? How do you compare them?
Making the analogy for what doctor to go with isn't the same thing, because who can be sure what is the best doctor. But if you have a VERY serious disease like Cancer, etc. the smart and wealthy people get second opinions because even the so-called "experts' may not be the best person to go with. Not everyone has the chance to use more than one doctor because of lack of money or their insurance only covers certain doctors. So making that analogy wasn't exactly one I would use. I had a friend of mine that had cancer and all of the experts at Stanford thought he wasn't going to last longer than a year and his family was wealthy enough to research plenty of doctors. (This was back in the 70's when very little was known). Well as it turned out, his family sought someone other than the so-called Experts at Stanford, talked to the guy that was doing Peach extracts and 40+ years later, the guy is STILL living and he basically PROVED that some of the most respected doctors at one of the top research hospitals didn't know #hit. So, when it comes to medicine, it's not a perfect science and if you can afford to get second, third and forth opinions, that's many times the best route to go. But these reports are just simply numbers. The problem is that if not all tablet mfg release real numbers, then these market research groups derive numbers some how and they may not be to the penny, but I'm sure they can derive approximations. which is probably as best as they can do. so it's probably better to just survey as many as you can get, figure out how reliable THEIR sources are (if they even mention it) and then maybe take an average or throw out the least reliable numbers. But again, how do you decide who has the most accurate numbers if the companies don't publicize their numbers?
The biggest problem with ANYONE's number is who are their sources. I really don't look at these kind of numbers anyway, I am more concerned with what Apple releases which shows what Apple is doing compared to themselves. I might compare to Samsung and maybe a few other major corporations where we can get better numbers from, but the "OTHER" category is probably a made up number by ALL of the market research companies. So I would just look at as many as I could and figure out what's more of an average, but in terms of the "OTHER" category, I don't look at those numbers because it's just a combined of the smallest players that doesn't really matter anyway. Apple doesn't try to displace the El Cheapo products, so for comparing Apple, I only look at who are the closest REAL competitors. So, from my standpoint, I will only be most concerned with the top players and the "OTHER" category isn't the top players and I don't care about those since they aren't a REAL competitor to Apple.
In terms of analysts, I also don't make the mistake of not believing the because they don't post something positive about Apple, because sometimes, they end up being right. So, you have to take any bias towards how you like or dislike a company when it comes to what the analysts say. NONE of them are going to be 100% accurate 100% of the time, even the biggest Pro-Apple analysts have been wrong just as much as the biggest Anti-Apple analysts have been.
I take whatever ANY market research and analyst says with a grain of salt and I will run my own numbers, make my own determination, and I will only listen to them IF they make sense as to WHY they think they are right.
So, let me ask you this. What is it about NPD's numbers that you don't like and show me the numbers from another source that you do like and lets figure out why you think one is more accurate than the other.