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Evercore raises Apple price target to $115, predicts sales of 58M iPhones in December quarter

post #1 of 48
Thread Starter 
Expecting big things from the anticipated debuts of new iPhones and a so-called "iWatch" this fall, Evercore Partners on Wednesday increased its price target on shares of Apple to $115 -- one of the highest current forecasts on Wall Street.




Analyst Rob Cihra sees Apple stock reaching a new all-time high, blowing past its previous record of just over $100 per share post-split. The new price target was announced in a note to investors on Wednesday, a copy of which was provided to AppleInsider.

"We see Apple creating its own growth through uniquely innovative hardware+software with integrated services vs. a sea of otherwise commodity devices," Cihra wrote. He sees the company continuing to target massive consumer markets, but in the process focusing on premium markets where margins are highest.
Evercore Partners' new $115 price target for AAPL is one of the highest on Wall Street.
For this fall, Cihra sees Apple's next-generation iPhone models propelling the company to sales of 58 million units in the December quarter, which would be an increase of 14 percent from the same period a year ago. He believes consumers have pent-up demand for a so-called "iPhone 6" with larger display options.

As for the rumored "iWatch," he sees Apple selling 5 million units priced at $249 in the December quarter. Within its first year, he said he "conservatively" sees the anticipated device selling 18 million units.

To Cihra, the "iWatch" likely represents a growing theme of continuity between Apple devices. He sees a wrist-worn accessory leveraging the company's ecosystem, making the iOS platform more valuable to both users and developers.

He sees technology and services such as Touch ID, HealthKit, HomeKit, Handoff, and iCloud drive helping to further establish Apple in growing markets such as mobile commerce, high-end advertising, and location-based services.

In the nearer term, Cihra sees Apple having shipped 35 million iPhones in the just-concluded June quarter, a number that would represent 12 percent year over year growth. He said that number would put Apple ahead of rival Samsung, which has seen its smartphone sales grow just 6 percent thus far this year.

Cihra joins a number of analysts that have increased their price targets for AAPL in recent weeks, ahead of the company's upcoming July 22 June quarter earnings report. Other increases include Needham & Company ($97), Cowen & Company ($102), RBC Capital Markets ($100), and J.P. Morgan ($108).
post #2 of 48
I wonder if they would have raised it to $805 pre-split.

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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post #3 of 48
It's important to remember these "price targets" are next to meaningless, but I do expect AAPL to be worth considerably more at the end of the year than it is now.
post #4 of 48
Those aren't high expectations or anything...
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You can't spell appeal without Apple.
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post #5 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

I wonder if they would have raised it to $805 pre-split.

Mentally, $805 seems huge, but $115 does not.  In the end, they are the same, but not.

 

This is the road to a pre-split $1000 stock price, if you ask me.

post #6 of 48
I keep seeing these raised price targets yet the stock is stuck at $90-$93. Are we just stuck there until September when new phones are announced?
post #7 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

I keep seeing these raised price targets yet the stock is stuck at $90-$93. Are we just stuck there until September when new phones are announced?


Only if Wall Street deems the new phone to be acceptable. And if there's a new wearable.

 

Personally, it's shameful there aren't more iPads selling. People are idiots for buying that cheap Android garbage. I've yet to meet someone who's truly happy with an Android tablet; unless they're shilling for Samdung. Only a Surface tablet is an acceptable alternative, IMO.

Too many Apple products to list...Long on AAPL, so take what I say with a bucket of salt.
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Too many Apple products to list...Long on AAPL, so take what I say with a bucket of salt.
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post #8 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

I wonder if they would have raised it to $805 pre-split.

 

The interesting bit is that both investors and analysts refer back to the wrong number when they speak of the previous high water mark in the company's valuation.  They keep talking about $705, when this no longer representative of the previous high.  Here's why:

 

The $705 high water mark from Sept 2012 was against 945 million shares, giving Apple a market cap of $660 billion. For Apple to hit that high again, the stock, now with 861 million shares outstanding, would have to get to a pre-split $770, or $110 post-split. That would require only a 16.5 PE against $40 billion in trailing earnings, which is right about where Apple's fiscal 2014 earnings will be come the end of September. So $110 is a no-brainier over the next three months. Building upon this will be the huge positive news cycle associated with the iPhone 6, which will take away the last advantage the Android vendors can claim, leaving them behind on security, OS and App Store fragmentation, hardware quality and industrial design, and lacking a worldwide network of high-end outlets to match the attraction of the Apple stores. Not to mention lagging in technology compared with Apple advances such as 64-bit handsets, TouchID, programming language and development environment, and more.

Apple at an 18 PE against $40 billion in trailing earnings with 850 million pre-split shares (about 6 billion post-split shares) come September/October results in a stock price of $121 per share. That does not seem out of bounds in my view.

I don't care about what the ignorant masses perceive as truth. I'm concerned with the facts on the ground.
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I don't care about what the ignorant masses perceive as truth. I'm concerned with the facts on the ground.
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post #9 of 48
What all these price targets don't seem to take into account is that the value of Apple stock is not just affected by the company's performance, but also by larger market trends. The S&P 500 and Dow are at all time highs, having risen more than 35% in the past 18 months. The average PE ratio of publicly traded stocks is pushing 20, way above historical averages, and hardly justifiable by any reasonable forecast of economic growth. What this means is that we are due for a significant correction in the price of equities, and when this correction comes, it will take Apple's stock price down with it. With the Middle East and Ukraine spiraling into total chaos, I'm surprised that the markets haven't panicked yet. For those eager to profit on Apple stock, I'd advise against going all in at this time. Keep some of your cash in reserve to buy in after the panic.
post #10 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by cws View Post

What all these price targets don't seem to take into account is that the value of Apple stock is not just affected by the company's performance, but also by larger market trends. The S&P 500 and Dow are at all time highs, having risen more than 35% in the past 18 months. The average PE ratio of publicly traded stocks is pushing 20, way above historical averages, and hardly justifiable by any reasonable forecast of economic growth. What this means is that we are due for a significant correction in the price of equities, and when this correction comes, it will take Apple's stock price down with it. With the Middle East and Ukraine spiraling into total chaos, I'm surprised that the markets haven't panicked yet. For those eager to profit on Apple stock, I'd advise against going all in at this time. Keep some of your cash in reserve to buy in after the panic.
Stock market is a joke right now. What supports the markets being at all time highs? Certainly not the economy or geo political events.
post #11 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by cws View Post
For those eager to profit on Apple stock, I'd advise against going all in at this time. Keep some of your cash in reserve to buy in after the panic.

 

Or write put options...

post #12 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheWhiteFalcon View Post
 


Only if Wall Street deems the new phone to be acceptable. And if there's a new wearable.

 

Personally, it's shameful there aren't more iPads selling. People are idiots for buying that cheap Android garbage. I've yet to meet someone who's truly happy with an Android tablet; unless they're shilling for Samdung. Only a Surface tablet is an acceptable alternative, IMO.

 

I attended a conference this past weekend, and each person on either side of me had some sort of Sumsang faux-iPad device. I had my iPad "3". We were all looking at an 80+page PDF, and I was amazed how glitchy and laggy those Sumsang Andwoid devices were, while I was able to scroll and flick the document with ease on my iPad 3. Both persons had to constantly repeat gestures to get their faux iPads to respond. I wanted to ask them why in the world they chose those devices when clearly an iPad is far superior. 

post #13 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by RegurgitatedCoprolite View Post

I wanted to ask them why in the world they chose those devices when clearly an iPad is far superior.

In my experience, the answers seem to range from someone looking only at raw HW numbers but not understanding what performance is for a system, to price concerns, to being told by some friend or family member that Apple is just "trendy" and they all do the same thing.
Edited by SolipsismX - 7/2/14 at 8:03am

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

Reply

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

Reply
post #14 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post


The answers seem to range from, in my experience, someone looking only at raw HW numbers but not understanding what performance is for a system, to price concerns, to being told by some friend or family member that Apple is just "trendy" and they all do the same thing.

 

My original iPhone was far more responsive than the faux iPad clunkers my seat mates had. I was truly amazed at how terrible their devices functioned / didn't function.

post #15 of 48
Approach $70BB revenue in a quarter will be amazing. For that though Apple will need to grow its Mac and iPad business. Macs are possible is they gradually push down the price and squeeze out the competition. iPads are interesting in that users are holding onto them almost as long as Macs. To grow that business will need new features (iTouch).
Of course there is always the mystery new product.
post #16 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by RegurgitatedCoprolite View Post

I attended a conference this past weekend, and each person on either side of me had some sort of Sumsang faux-iPad device. I had my iPad "3". We were all looking at an 80+page PDF, and I was amazed how glitchy and laggy those Sumsang Andwoid devices were, while I was able to scroll and flick the document with ease on my iPad 3. Both persons had to constantly repeat gestures to get their faux iPads to respond. I wanted to ask them why in the world they chose those devices when clearly an iPad is far superior. 

 

What kind of conference was that?, because I hardly ever see any Android tablets in the wild. I am however not the least bit surprised by the glitchiness and lagginess that you describe on those garbage tablets. I believe that it is a combination of people being cheap and ignorant.

 

I've mentioned this before, but last time I took a flight, I'd say that 90-95% of all tablet devices that I saw were iPads. If I were in a room and the majority of tablets that I saw were Android, then I would definitely have to leave that room, as I would instantly know that I'm hanging with a bad crowd, and there is nothing to be gained from those kind of people.

post #17 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post


The answers seem to range from, in my experience, someone looking only at raw HW numbers but not understanding what performance is for a system, to price concerns, to being told by some friend or family member that Apple is just "trendy" and they all do the same thing.

 

Agreed.  And when they evaluate on price they fail to take into account resale value, of which there is precious little for a non-iPad tablet.  It's amazing how myopic people can be.

I don't care about what the ignorant masses perceive as truth. I'm concerned with the facts on the ground.
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I don't care about what the ignorant masses perceive as truth. I'm concerned with the facts on the ground.
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post #18 of 48

As for Apple's stock price and analysts.

 

A lot of them are going to have to raise their price targets soon, because they will be underwater, and they will look like morons if they don't. They're merely playing catch up, analysts rarely predict anything accurately, they merely follow after the fact, and rather poorly too.

post #19 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post
 

 

What kind of conference was that?, because I hardly ever see any Android tablets in the wild. I am however not the least bit surprised by the glitchiness and lagginess that you describe on those garbage tablets. I believe that it is a combination of people being cheap and ignorant.

 

I've mentioned this before, but last time I took a flight, I'd say that 90-95% of all tablet devices that I saw were iPads. If I were in a room and the majority of tablets that I saw were Android, then I would definitely have to leave that room, as I would instantly know that I'm hanging with a bad crowd, and there is nothing to be gained from those kind of people.

 

This was a conference of counselors, many of whom are not tech-savvy. There were a lot of iPads around - it just so happened the folks with whom I was seated had faux iPads. Two of the six people at the head table had MacBooks, which I was happy to see, and I saw one of HP's ripoffs of the MBA, made me want to gag. 

post #20 of 48
Introducing the all new Apple iWatch...

up-up-and-away-the-history-of-superheroes-on-television8.jpg

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #21 of 48

Why is it that when Netflix or Amazon get a single price target bump you see their stock price go up 4% the next day and yet Apple has gotten numerous bumps (from the Wall Street analysts we love to hate) over the last 6 weeks and it hasn't budged the price at all?  Does anyone have a rational explanation for that?

post #22 of 48

Because Apple is held to completely different standards by the financial sector. Just about everything good one hears about Apple is discounted by Wall Street. But if Bilderbergers Bezos or Schmidt fart, it's BUY, BUY, BUY!!!

post #23 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by RegurgitatedCoprolite View Post
 

Because Apple is held to completely different standards by the financial sector. Just about everything good one hears about Apple is discounted by Wall Street. But if Bilderbergers Bezos or Schmidt fart, it's BUY, BUY, BUY!!!

But the price target increases are being done by Wall Street.  So Wall Street discounts Wall Street?

post #24 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

Introducing the all new Apple iWatch...

up-up-and-away-the-history-of-superheroes-on-television8.jpg

 

I can't wait for Apple to introduce their golden lasso of iTruth.  It forces fandroids to fess up about their myth of market share. 

I don't care about what the ignorant masses perceive as truth. I'm concerned with the facts on the ground.
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I don't care about what the ignorant masses perceive as truth. I'm concerned with the facts on the ground.
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post #25 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by GregInPrague View Post
 

But the price target increases are being done by Wall Street.  So Wall Street discounts Wall Street?

 

Definitely confusing.

post #26 of 48

....

post #27 of 48
I did a spit take when I saw an active verb in an AppleInsider headline, together with the subject: "Evercore raises..."

This is not the usual passive verb + hidden subject + predicate first headlines like "Apple shares expected to..." Or "Apple seen as..." 1wink.gif

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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post #28 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

I keep seeing these raised price targets yet the stock is stuck at $90-$93. Are we just stuck there until September when new phones are announced?

September is only 2 months away. Incremental inching up until Fall product cycle and then the proverbial "buy the rumor sell the news" selloff -- then comes the Xmas rally where AAPL goes to new highs.

post #29 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheWhiteFalcon View Post
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

I keep seeing these raised price targets yet the stock is stuck at $90-$93. Are we just stuck there until September when new phones are announced?


Only if Wall Street deems the new phone to be acceptable. And if there's a new wearable.

 

Personally, it's shameful there aren't more iPads selling. People are idiots for buying that cheap Android garbage. I've yet to meet someone who's truly happy with an Android tablet; unless they're shilling for Samdung. Only a Surface tablet is an acceptable alternative, IMO.

Honestly, I've never seen an Android tablet in the wild (NYC). I'm sure they're there; I just haven't seen one.

I see a fair number of Android phones, but not tablets.

post #30 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by cws View Post

What all these price targets don't seem to take into account is that the value of Apple stock is not just affected by the company's performance, but also by larger market trends. The S&P 500 and Dow are at all time highs, having risen more than 35% in the past 18 months. The average PE ratio of publicly traded stocks is pushing 20, way above historical averages, and hardly justifiable by any reasonable forecast of economic growth. What this means is that we are due for a significant correction in the price of equities, and when this correction comes, it will take Apple's stock price down with it. With the Middle East and Ukraine spiraling into total chaos, I'm surprised that the markets haven't panicked yet. For those eager to profit on Apple stock, I'd advise against going all in at this time. Keep some of your cash in reserve to buy in after the panic.
Stock market is a joke right now. What supports the markets being at all time highs? Certainly not the economy or geo political events.

Uhh… Corporate (you know; the thing people are actually investing in) profits?

post #31 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by RegurgitatedCoprolite View Post

I attended a conference this past weekend, and each person on either side of me had some sort of Sumsang faux-iPad device. I had my iPad "3". We were all looking at an 80+page PDF, and I was amazed how glitchy and laggy those Sumsang Andwoid devices were, while I was able to scroll and flick the document with ease on my iPad 3. Both persons had to constantly repeat gestures to get their faux iPads to respond. I wanted to ask them why in the world they chose those devices when clearly an iPad is far superior. 

What kind of conference was that?, because I hardly ever see any Android tablets in the wild. I am however not the least bit surprised by the glitchiness and lagginess that you describe on those garbage tablets. I believe that it is a combination of people being cheap and ignorant.

I've mentioned this before, but last time I took a flight, I'd say that 90-95% of all tablet devices that I saw were iPads. If I were in a room and the majority of tablets that I saw were Android, then I would definitely have to leave that room, as I would instantly know that I'm hanging with a bad crowd, and there is nothing to be gained from those kind of people.

"If you are the smartest person in the room — you're in the wrong room."
"That (the) world is moving so quickly that iOS is already amongst the older mobile operating systems in active development today." — The Verge
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"That (the) world is moving so quickly that iOS is already amongst the older mobile operating systems in active development today." — The Verge
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post #32 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheWhiteFalcon View Post
 


Only if Wall Street deems the new phone to be acceptable. And if there's a new wearable.

 

Personally, it's shameful there aren't more iPads selling. People are idiots for buying that cheap Android garbage. I've yet to meet someone who's truly happy with an Android tablet; unless they're shilling for Samdung. Only a Surface tablet is an acceptable alternative, IMO.

the funny thing is that I have yet to see one tablet in the wild outside of an iPad or occasional Kindle. I guess Sammy is not in favor where I roam.

post #33 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by BobSchlob View Post
 

Honestly, I've never seen an Android tablet in the wild (NYC). I'm sure they're there; I just haven't seen one.

I see a fair number of Android phones, but not tablets.

 

Most Android tablets don't even have Cell capability so why would you take it with you outdoors.

 

I know when I owned the shameful Kindle I never took it outside of my toilet

Apple Purchases last 12 months - iPhone 5S (two), iPhone 6, iPhone 6+ (two), iPadAir, iPadAir2, iPadMini2, AppleTV (two), MacMini, Airport Extreme, iPod Classic.
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Apple Purchases last 12 months - iPhone 5S (two), iPhone 6, iPhone 6+ (two), iPadAir, iPadAir2, iPadMini2, AppleTV (two), MacMini, Airport Extreme, iPod Classic.
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post #34 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by RegurgitatedCoprolite View Post

I wanted to ask them why in the world they chose those devices when clearly an iPad is far superior.

In my experience, the answers seem to range from someone looking only at raw HW numbers but not understanding what performance is for a system, to price concerns, to being told by some friend or family member that Apple is just "trendy" and they all do the same thing.

I was in the bank this morning. They have completely remodeled everything since I was in there last year. I used to just walk over to the bank officer area and someone would help me. Now you have to have an appointment. So the guy walks over with his Android tablet which had a card reader on it. He fumbled around for a minute or two to try to get the thing ready to scan. I could tell by his facial expression he was struggling. Finally it worked. Why would BoA choose Android? Can't be because price. They just spent a couple $million remodeling the place, IT decision?

 

I hope AppleII doesn't have an account at BoA. He'll have cancel it.

Life is too short to drink bad coffee.

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Life is too short to drink bad coffee.

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post #35 of 48
Does anybody actually believe Apple will only sell 5 million more iPhones this Holiday quarter compared to 2013. These analysts are bonkers. I wouldn't be surprised a bit if they sold 80 million in the three months and one week after release. It's a given Apple will release the phone 1 week before their 4th quarter ends, so the 1st quarter number will be lower by 15 million. In that sense, the 58 million isn't as bad as it looks. Just one year ago, every analyst had targets in the $400's. What has changed...besides the share price? There has been no huge surprises. Sure, they beat last quarter, but did that beat warrant the run-up the last 3 months.
post #36 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by RadarTheKat View Post
 

 

The interesting bit is that both investors and analysts refer back to the wrong number when they speak of the previous high water mark in the company's valuation.  They keep talking about $705, when this no longer representative of the previous high.  Here's why:

 

 

Investors and analysts don't for the most part care about the 'previous high' market cap.  They care about (and are talking about) what the individual high water mark for what the 'pieces of paper' are worth.  If you had bought one share back in the day when it was at $705, and the shares were to hit $101 next week, it would have taken you a while, but you would have made a positive return on your investment- even though both 101 is indeed less than 705 and despite the fact that Apple as a company would be worth considerably less than it was at the $705 point.  So while what you are saying happens to be true, your statement that analysts are wrong is not.

post #37 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by Macky the Macky View Post


"If you are the smartest person in the room — you're in the wrong room."

 

Unless you're at a poker table.

post #38 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

I keep seeing these raised price targets yet the stock is stuck at $90-$93. Are we just stuck there until September when new phones are announced?

 

It usually works the other way.  Share price starts to go up based purely on expectations, not existing financials.  Apple fans view this as them being 'proven' right and call analysts idiots for having valuations below the hype-driven price.   Wall Street's financial valuations go out the window and they raise estimates, based on speculation rather than performance, which drives share price even higher.  Phone is released and has record sales, but not as high as the expectations were wildly driven.  Share price drops.  Apple fans go crazy citing market manipulation because Apples share price plumets despite record sales and bemoan analysts now for exactly the opposite- having driven expectations too high for Apple to meet (and yet usually in the same breath they will continue to insist that Apple should be valued way higher).

 

Made a nice return on the 'iPhone 5 then dive' strategy, was hoping to do a '6 then nix' this time around but the institutions haven't gone for it.  And that is the primary reason the price remains stuck, the analysts are giving higher estimates, but the institutions aren't buying it (literally).  Even so, I think we're just at the start of the buzz cycle for Apple and it should go up nicely between now and September.  If the institutions do lay in now, just as the buzz is ramping up, it should start the frenzy of "Apple share price is going up because people are buying because the share price is going up." I think the 6 will be an enormous success, but am not going to get greedy.  I'll sell before the financials are posted... and will be nothing but happy for remaining investors if I'm wrong and Apple shares continue to soar.

post #39 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frood View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by Macky the Macky View Post

"If you are the smartest person in the room — you're in the wrong room."

Unless you're at a poker table.

Point taken! But wouldn't that also mean knowing when to leave the room...?
"That (the) world is moving so quickly that iOS is already amongst the older mobile operating systems in active development today." — The Verge
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"That (the) world is moving so quickly that iOS is already amongst the older mobile operating systems in active development today." — The Verge
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post #40 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by Macky the Macky View Post


Point taken! But wouldn't that also mean knowing when to leave the room...?

 

haha absolutely! =)

 

With that said I just saw the latest Geico commercial with Kenny Rogers in it a few minutes ago.  Pretty funny.

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