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Apple's iOS gains ground on Android in US as iPhone retains smartphone lead - Page 2

post #41 of 52

The best fit logistic curve for iPhone penetration data for the past 48 months is that iPhone will saturate at 39% of the total US cellphone market (they're currently at 29.4%). This is a good fit, so it seems pretty likely.  Thus when all phones are smartphones, we expect Apple's share to be about 39% in the US, which is about what its share of smartphones is now. So as smartphones increasingly dominate (they're currently about 70% of all phones in the US), we should expect Apple's share of the additional sales to remain about constant.

 

In the world as a whole, Apple's share is currently about 15%, and worldwide smartphone penetration was about 50% last year.  So if Apple's share remains about constant in the world, then when all the phones are smartphones their worldwide sales will about double.

post #42 of 52
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Spot on. Apple is the ONLY company to provide honest mobile sales data. Not Amazon; not Google; not Motorola; not Samsung.

I've never understood why journalists have never pursued this aspect of the vaunted Android 'market stare' story. What's so problematic about getting these guys to report actual sales if the market share is so high!? Wouldn't they want to validate it, indeed, shout about it from the rooftops? The fact that they stop at telling us about 'shipments' says it all.

Because what Apple does is the exception, reporting shipments has always been the norm.
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post #43 of 52
Quote:
Originally Posted by NormM View Post
 

The best fit logistic curve for iPhone penetration data for the past 48 months is that iPhone will saturate at 39% of the total US cellphone market (they're currently at 29.4%). This is a good fit, so it seems pretty likely.  Thus when all phones are smartphones, we expect Apple's share to be about 39% in the US, which is about what its share of smartphones is now. So as smartphones increasingly dominate (they're currently about 70% of all phones in the US), we should expect Apple's share of the additional sales to remain about constant.

 

In the world as a whole, Apple's share is currently about 15%, and worldwide smartphone penetration was about 50% last year.  So if Apple's share remains about constant in the world, then when all the phones are smartphones their worldwide sales will about double.

 

While I'm partial to claims grounded in relatively sophisticated statistics, you're assuming ceteris paribus here. Many claim, in effect, that there will be an upward shift in Apple's curve due to (finally) adopting the popular larger screen sizes. (Personally, I don't know what to expect.)

post #44 of 52
Quote:
Originally Posted by aBeliefSystem View Post

Yes, the US is much the main home of the iPhone.

In Germany where people are more technical Android now outsells the iPhone more than 7 to 1.

Good data is hard to come by. Where did you get yours?

 

https://www.mapbox.com/labs/twitter-gnip/brands/#5/38.000/-95.000

 

Try out this data based on number of tweets per phone brand. Germany isn't even on the radar. More technical my ass!

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post #45 of 52
Quote:
Originally Posted by mstone View Post

 

Try out this data based on number of tweets per phone brand. Germany isn't even on the radar. More technical my ass!

 

Twitter isn't technical. It's also pretty stupid. Maybe the Germans are smart enough to appreciate that.  (/s)

post #46 of 52
Quote:
Originally Posted by Arlor View Post
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by mstone View Post

 

Try out this data based on number of tweets per phone brand. Germany isn't even on the radar. More technical my ass!

 

Twitter isn't technical. It's also pretty stupid. Maybe the Germans are smart enough to appreciate that.  (/s)

Perhaps. I just like to verify data not speculate. In my experience, Germans are no more technical than anyone else in the developed world. Our company has an office in Germany and they do not impress me as being technologically superior by any measure and they mostly use iPhones, based on observations at our global meetings. And yes, we are a technology company.

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post #47 of 52
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheWhiteFalcon View Post


That contradicts data showing that only a third of Samdung's "smartphone" sales were premium devices.

 

Not really, Samsung said only a third of Samsung's worldwide smartphones sales are premium devices, not just in the US.  Sure, the US is the largest market for some, but not necessarily the largest in terms of unit sales for Samsung. It's fair to assume that most low and mid end devices end up places like China and India; most high-end / premium phones in the more developed market like the US/UK/Germany. I further cited a research by Chitika  indicating that over 80% of the US Samsung uses come from Samsung's premium Galaxy S/Note series. 

 

Apple too recently announced that they would relaunch older iPhone 4 in less developed markets like India to address the demand for cheap lower-end Phones.

post #48 of 52
Originally Posted by tooltalk View Post
...Samsung said...

 

Found your problem.

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post #49 of 52
Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael Scrip View Post
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by davestall View Post

"iPhone retains smartphone lead"

You can print anything now I see even if the statement conflicts with the facts. Android still leads iphone by a significant margin, as the data in this report reflects.

These articles are always so confusing since they talk about a couple different things.

Apple was the best-selling smartphone manufacturer in the US... comprising 41.9% of smartphone sales in the US. The rest are as follows: Samsung 28.7%, LG 6.5%, Motorola 6.3%, HTC 5.1%

So yes... "the iPhone" is the smartphone leader in the US... since every phone Apple sells is named "iPhone"... and no other vendor sold more than Apple last quarter.

The other side of the coin is platforms. And yes.... Android is beating Apple in the US... 52.1% to 41.9%

 

It is? So iPads and iPods don't exist?

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post #50 of 52
Quote:
Originally Posted by Benjamin Frost View Post

It is? So iPads and iPods don't exist?

The title of the Comscore chart is "Top Smartphone Platforms"

Smartphone.

They didn't include tablets and MP3 players in their smartphone surveys.


And yes... these articles can be confusing if you don't look carefully into what they are saying.

Android is the top smartphone platform in the US... but the iPhone is the top smartphone. Weird huh.

But the article actually explains it.

Too often people misunderstand these types of articles... because the articles talk about more than one topic.

That confusion is apparent in this thread. The guy I quoted earlier didn't understand the article.
post #51 of 52
Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael Scrip View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by Benjamin Frost View Post

It is? So iPads and iPods don't exist?

The title of the Comscore chart is "Top Smartphone Platforms"

Smartphone.

They didn't include tablets and MP3 players in their smartphone surveys.


And yes... these articles can be confusing if you don't look carefully into what they are saying.

Android is the top smartphone platform in the US... but the iPhone is the top smartphone. Weird huh.

But the article actually explains it.

Too often people misunderstand these types of articles... because the articles talk about more than one topic.

That confusion is apparent in this thread. The guy I quoted earlier didn't understand the article.

I'm highly suspicious of these comparisons. Pitting Android against iPhone? Stoopid. Android v iOS.

And, as lots of others have said, Apple are the only ones to provide concrete figures. None of these market share graphs count for anything, even ones showing Apple dominating. How can they, when we have seen that Samsung has been proven to lie about their units sold in court?
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post #52 of 52
Quote:
Originally Posted by Benjamin Frost View Post

I'm highly suspicious of these comparisons. Pitting Android against iPhone? Stoopid. Android v iOS.

While I understand your concern... this was a survey from Comscore about which smartphone you use. That's it.

Somewhere there exists a survey that looks at ALL devices that run a mobile OS. That's where you'd see smartphones AND tablets AND audio players, etc.

This wasn't it though. This was a survey about only smartphones... and also the operating systems they happen to run.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Benjamin Frost View Post

And, as lots of others have said, Apple are the only ones to provide concrete figures. None of these market share graphs count for anything, even ones showing Apple dominating. How can they, when we have seen that Samsung has been proven to lie about their units sold in court?

Again... Comscore is a survey

"MobiLens data is derived from an intelligent online survey of a nationally representative sample of mobile subscribers age 13 and older."

You're right... Apple is the only manufacturer who gives us any kind of numbers. However... Apple doesn't break it down by country.

We would still have to do surveys or channel checks to estimate US-only numbers.

In this case... Samsung couldn't lie. Nobody asked Samsung. Comscore basically asked US consumers "what smartphone do you use?"

If someone said "Galaxy S4" it was recorded as "Samsung" and "Android"

If someone said "iPhone 5S" it was recorded as "Apple" and "iOS"

They did this tens of thousands of times to get a nationally representative sample of US mobile subscribers.

And then we get charts like the ones in this article.

So to sum up... this was a survey about which smartphone people have in their pockets right now. The data then paints a picture of the US smartphone landscape.
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