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Wall Street on Apple's 'uneventful' June quarter: Excited by margins, concerned about guidance - Page 3

post #81 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by mjtomlin View Post
 

 

I agree, however, I can create a Fusion Drive in my iMac. A Fusion Drive is basically software controlling the contents of two disparate hard drives. There have been people that have created a Fusion Drive out of an internal HD and en external SSD (not that it's very practical).

 

My poor DVD drive is basically dead - way too much r!pping. So I could replace it with an SSD and create a Fusion Drive. There are even kits for doing that.

 

Oh of course.  But most people, let's face it, wouldn't have the slightest clue how to do that. :)

post #82 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post


 LOL.

Like I showed those 'heavyweights' are literally 10x smaller than Apple.

Apple is in a category of its own. Investors prefer a market with several 'big' players jocking for position, and sharing the pie. Now that pie has only Apple (a super duper heavyweight), Samsung (a iffy middleweight), and a bunch of lightweights. To them domination like that is unsustainable long term.
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
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"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
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post #83 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by imt1 View Post
 

Typically all hardware had been moved to the second half of the cal year. This is also prime buying season w/ holiday shopping for year end. 

 

Products released during the first half of the year...

 

2007 Jan (iPhone, AppleTV - MacWorld)

2008 Jan (MacBook Air - MacWorld), Jun (iPhone 3G intro, released in July)

2009 Jan (17" Unibody Macbook Pro at MacWorld), Jun (iPhone 3GS)

2010 Jan (iPad 1 intro), Jun (iPhone 4)

2011 Mar (iPad 2 intro)

2012 Mar (iPad 3 intro), Jun (MacBook Pro w/ Retina)

2013 Jun (Mac Pro sneak peak)

2014 none

 

In 2013, all hardware had been moved to the second half of the year (damn near the last quarter). And I believe they did so, because 2012 was the last time they had an event for the iPod, and didn't have anything new to release (and haven't since), so the iPad event was moved to the Fall in 2013.

Disclaimer: The things I say are merely my own personal opinion and may or may not be based on facts. At certain points in any discussion, sarcasm may ensue.
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Disclaimer: The things I say are merely my own personal opinion and may or may not be based on facts. At certain points in any discussion, sarcasm may ensue.
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post #84 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post


Apple is in a category of its own. Investors prefer a market with several 'big' players jocking for position, and sharing the pie. Now that pie has only Apple (a super duper heavyweight), Samsung (a iffy middleweight), and a bunch of lightweights. To them domination like that is unsustainable long term.

 

But Apple does not need to dominate the entire industry to be sucessful.  They need to dominate the high end.

Apple Purchases last 12 months - iPhone 5S (two), iPhone 6, iPhone 6+ (two), iPadAir, iPadAir2, iPadMini2, AppleTV (two), MacMini, Airport Extreme, iPod Classic.
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Apple Purchases last 12 months - iPhone 5S (two), iPhone 6, iPhone 6+ (two), iPadAir, iPadAir2, iPadMini2, AppleTV (two), MacMini, Airport Extreme, iPod Classic.
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post #85 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

But Apple does not need to dominate the entire industry to be sucessful.  They need to dominate the high end.

I don't think that they need to dominate at all to be successful.
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
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"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
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post #86 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post


I don't think that they need to dominate at all to be successful.

 

So why is their performance unsustainable?  They only have 15% market share.

Apple Purchases last 12 months - iPhone 5S (two), iPhone 6, iPhone 6+ (two), iPadAir, iPadAir2, iPadMini2, AppleTV (two), MacMini, Airport Extreme, iPod Classic.
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Apple Purchases last 12 months - iPhone 5S (two), iPhone 6, iPhone 6+ (two), iPadAir, iPadAir2, iPadMini2, AppleTV (two), MacMini, Airport Extreme, iPod Classic.
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post #87 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

 

Stock is up 70% last 12 months

Stock is up 20% YTD

 

I predict we see $110 by EOY and $125 in the next 12 months.

I predict we see $190. in the next 12 months, I mean think about it -- all the so-called iPhone Killers are going down the toilet.

post #88 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by Potsie Webber View Post
 

I predict we see $190. in the next 12 months, I mean think about it -- all the so-called iPhone Killers are going down the toilet.

 

That is not going to happen. Far too optimistic.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #89 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

So why is their performance unsustainable?  They only have 15% market share.

Of the total market. How much is their share of the high end market?
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
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"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
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post #90 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post


Of the total market. How much is their share of the high end market?

 

Are people really still talking about market share?  For real?

post #91 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by AaronJ View Post

Are people really still talking about market share?  For real?

I didn't bring it up.
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
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"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
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post #92 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post


I didn't bring it up.

 

That's not what I meant.  I was just curious if people were still talking about such an inane subject.

 

(PS: I have a number of people on block, so there are a good number of messages that I don't see.)

post #93 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by AaronJ View Post
 

 

That's not what I meant.  I was just curious if people were still talking about such an inane subject.

 

(PS: I have a number of people on block, so there are a good number of messages that I don't see.)

 

They weren't talking about market share. They were talking about saturation. How much of the high end market does Apple have in high end phones. If the number is really high then one should be able to reasonably assume that sales will be slowing down at some point. I didn't say "ending"... just slowing down. Which is what we are seeing. Apple still sells more phones yoy but the percentage over the year before is no longer what it used to be. The chance for wildly exceptional growth numbers as we've seen in the past is no longer there.

 

That's what is being said... not market share. Rather, Apple's share of its market.

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post #94 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post
 

 

They weren't talking about market share. They were talking about saturation. How much of the high end market does Apple have in high end phones. If the number is really high then one should be able to reasonably assume that sales will be slowing down at some point. I didn't say "ending"... just slowing down. Which is what we are seeing. Apple still sells more phones yoy but the percentage over the year before is no longer what it used to be. The chance for wildly exceptional growth numbers as we've seen in the past is no longer there.

 

That's what is being said... not market share. Rather, Apple's share of its market.

 

We'll see when the "6" is released (really hoping they just call it "iPhone" personally. 

post #95 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by AaronJ View Post
 

 

We'll see when the "6" is released (really hoping they just call it "iPhone" personally. 

 

I get that... but let's say that Apple has 20% yoy in the fiscal 1st quarter... 64 million phones. Then what?

 

Not that Apple would be doing badly. Hardly.

 

Rather... no matter what, you are probably not going to see the wild growth that you saw between 2007 and 2012... unless Apple can come up with another product category that is successful as the iPhone.

 

Stability is the goal... imho.

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post #96 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post
 

Rather... no matter what, you are probably not going to see the wild growth that you saw between 2007 and 2012... unless Apple can come up with another product category that is successful as the iPhone.

 

They don't necessarily have to come up with another category as successful as the iPhone... They could very well introduce (have) several products, that are moderately successful.

 

They have the iPod*, which has languished the past couple of years. They could simplify and diversify that line from a simple media player, health/fitness tracking devices, mobile gaming/entertainment devices. (*I know everyone poo-poos the iPod because sales are down and they haven't updated them in two years. But what other Apple product went through the same thing? Hmmm... The Mac-freaken-Pro. Everyone thought for sure that was EOL'd and look what they released? A beautiful cylinder of total awesomeness that completely caught everyone off guard. I'm thinking Apple is doing the same to the iPod. Why waste money in incremental updates when you're busy trying to redefine what an iPod is?)

 

The AppleTV is another product that's ripe to explode and I bet it's going to once Apple gets all the pieces together.

 

The iPad still has a tremendous opportunity to grow, especially with the recent IBM deal.

 

And the Mac can also continue to grow, especially if Apple is able to continue to push the prices down without sacrificing anything else. Maybe Apple has an iOS based laptop and AIO desktop** in the works that allows you to use a keyboard and mouse/trackpad? These would be much cheaper than a Mac and have access to the hundreds of thousands of apps, not least of which all the enterprise apps being worked on with IBM. Imagine IBM selling millions of these things to corporations? Bye bye Windows! (**Before anyone goes apesh!t, please note, I am in no way saying Apple will EVER get rid of the Mac. I'd be the first to revolt.)

Disclaimer: The things I say are merely my own personal opinion and may or may not be based on facts. At certain points in any discussion, sarcasm may ensue.
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Disclaimer: The things I say are merely my own personal opinion and may or may not be based on facts. At certain points in any discussion, sarcasm may ensue.
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post #97 of 105
Wallstreet can suck a duck.








Yes I know the "I" is next to the "U"
post #98 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by AaronJ View Post
 

 

We'll see when the "6" is released (really hoping they just call it "iPhone" personally. 

 

I was certain TS would give a thumb's up for this... I was right!

 

Seriously though, so do I. I was expecting it 2 years back actually.

post #99 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by BestKeptSecret View Post
 

 

I was certain TS would give a thumb's up for this... I was right!

 

Seriously though, so do I. I was expecting it 2 years back actually.

 

Heh.  Good call.  I think we'll find out soon.

post #100 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by Potsie Webber View Post
 

I predict we see $190. in the next 12 months, I mean think about it -- all the so-called iPhone Killers are going down the toilet.

 

$190 would be really hard.  But lets see if the math works:

 

FY2014 estimated EPS - $6.42

assume 30% growth

FY2015 estimated EPS - $8.35

assume 20% growth

FY2016 estimated EPS - $10.02

 

$10.02 x 19 PE ratio = $190

 

For it to reach $190 we need:

 

1. EPS to grow 25-30% for the next two years

2. PE ratio to increase from 16.3 to 19.0

Apple Purchases last 12 months - iPhone 5S (two), iPhone 6, iPhone 6+ (two), iPadAir, iPadAir2, iPadMini2, AppleTV (two), MacMini, Airport Extreme, iPod Classic.
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post #101 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

I woke up slightly late today, and one of the first things I do when I wake up is to check on my holdings, and when I opened the AAPL chart for today, I just had to smile.lol.gif

Screw all the shorts! I hope that they lost their rent money! I hope that they have to pawn their Android phones! I hope that they have to whore out their wives and sisters and make them stand on a busy street corner to make up for their losses.

I said it yesterday, but this earnings was pretty good, especially since it's a quiet quarter for AAPL. We all know what's coming soon! Bring it on biatches!1smoking.gif  

Some might consider that relishing the prospect of the shorts having to whore out their wives and sisters is a tad cruel, but I can't say that you don't know how to express your happiness.
"If the young are not initiated into the village, they will burn it down just to feel its warmth."
- African proverb
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"If the young are not initiated into the village, they will burn it down just to feel its warmth."
- African proverb
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post #102 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by mjtomlin View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by imt1 View Post

 
They did? when? 

Apple has steadily released a New/Updated iPhone each year. That is always the given. iPads not every year. Mac's either get Hardware upgrades or a refresh, depending on how far along they are in the product cycle. New OS's for both Mac and iOS each year. So whats left ATV? Those hardware updates have been few and far between. If we are talking new product categories those have spans of 5+ years between launches. So...  nothing different then what has occurred in the past. 

Not to side with the troll, but...

Apple Events...
2008: Jan, Mar, Jun, Sep, Oct
2009: Jan, Mar, Jun, Sep
2010: Jan, Apr, Jun, Sep, Oct
2011: Mar, Jun, Oct
2012: Jan, Mar, Jun, Sep, Oct
2013: Jun, Sep, Oct
2014: Jun

Last year was the first year they did not have an event during the first half of the year - this was only the second time that has happened.

June is in the first half of the year, dumbo; or are you from Australia?
"If the young are not initiated into the village, they will burn it down just to feel its warmth."
- African proverb
Reply
"If the young are not initiated into the village, they will burn it down just to feel its warmth."
- African proverb
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post #103 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by AaronJ View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

 

They weren't talking about market share. They were talking about saturation. How much of the high end market does Apple have in high end phones. If the number is really high then one should be able to reasonably assume that sales will be slowing down at some point. I didn't say "ending"... just slowing down. Which is what we are seeing. Apple still sells more phones yoy but the percentage over the year before is no longer what it used to be. The chance for wildly exceptional growth numbers as we've seen in the past is no longer there.

That's what is being said... not market share. Rather, Apple's share of its market.

We'll see when the "6" is released (really hoping they just call it "iPhone" personally. 

If they had any sense, they'd call it the iPhone 8.
"If the young are not initiated into the village, they will burn it down just to feel its warmth."
- African proverb
Reply
"If the young are not initiated into the village, they will burn it down just to feel its warmth."
- African proverb
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post #104 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by Benjamin Frost View Post

June is in the first half of the year, dumbo; or are you from Australia?

Doesn't even work with the fiscal year.
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
Reply
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
Reply
post #105 of 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigmike View Post

Wallstreet can suck a duck.








Yes I know the "I" is next to the "U"

Wall Street, a sick duck indeed.
"If the young are not initiated into the village, they will burn it down just to feel its warmth."
- African proverb
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"If the young are not initiated into the village, they will burn it down just to feel its warmth."
- African proverb
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