Originally Posted by Trubador
I agree that iPads are not going to have the regular, subsidized upgrade cycle like the iPhones (all phones, actually) do every 2 years.
It will be much more like desktops/laptops which tended to get upgraded every 5 years or so.
So, what you'll see over time is a slower long term growth in iPads as more and more people who don't have one decide to buy it for the first time. And as the older iPads get long in the tooth, have smaller memory sizes, slower processing, lack of multitasking and other advances, the older iPads will be upgraded to whatever new iPad is available. Just like laptops and desktops.
The key item with tablets is the interface to the world.
Apple, given their single source model, can support more models backwards, so there is even less 'turns' for SW improvements, but on the other hand, every 3 years there will/could/likely/possibly be a HW integration that is must have. TouchID I think is key** and I think that a commercial version of 'wallet' will also be important (not for payment but for proof of self/afiliation.... Watching Wedding Crashers, and I thought that would be a cool app... 'evites' where the RSVP is digitally signed, that only your TouchID can unlock).
Other things, such as the M7 chip... Nothing speak like corporate time and motion studies than replaying what you're doing (I wasn't joking in the other thread that IBM/Apple can help the USPS in determining variance in carrier routing (a little big brother), or providing instant information on 'where' a carrier is' [health/safety, follow-up, custom service ['customer left a big-@ss package for pickup 'HERE' (GPS converted to 11 digit zip code)'].
As Apple adds these items to the iPad, and who knows what's next, there will be a 3 year transition.
The IBM deal with the Enterprise market, plus the Education market, will add to that long-term growth.
or better still contribute to other revenue channels (app store, applecare, other). I look at the BYOD/Enterprise space and see a huge collision that basically says there won't be a 'home PC' and a a 'work PC' There will be 'my tablet' in 'work mode' and 'play mode.' I don't think you'll see a person with 2 iPads, but you will see a person with 'their' iPad take it everywhere (and where it's not, your iPhone is there).
(TL;DR - why TouchID will make a big difference);
**(but I'm in the Identity Management world. The key thing about 'home PCs' was... outside of our corporate walls, is that you, or your 12 yo daughter (auto)logging in to the corporate network? Now we can be sure (more sure), for less money... when I first started out, it was about $200 a year for 'managed' RSA tokens... While today, it's less (more like $50/year... there is a lot of overhead integrating into organizational provisioning systems, even if the fob is $5. $50 by 80,000 employees (or $100 for 50 employees) is big money for corporations. Soon it will be builtin into your iOS VPN app (evaluatePolicy:IDPolicyDeviceOwnerAuthenticationWithBioMetrics), or any iOS app (your sales forecasting tool)... get the biometric, send the AppleID or whatever unlocked to that back to the mothership, bingo... instant multi factor factor authentication... your login into the device (appleID), the device itself (your registered token), and your fingerprint (a success token stored in the Secure Enclave, saying person AppleID's was used on a registered (managed) device, and the only place where that token was, was successfully returned.
That's a couple Billion dollars saved for every financial institution that is skirting the FFIEC laws from 2011 requiring non-replayable real 2 factor authentication (almost all banks are faking it with stored tokens in your browser, making the 'device' the 2nd factor, which just about any malicious hacker can get access to, and the 'ease of use workaround' is a 'mothers maiden name, first school, pet's name secret'.... just another 'first factor' repeatable shared secret)