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Apple, Inc's double digit U.S. Mac growth contradicts IDC & Gartner reports of a Mac sales slump - Page 2

post #41 of 123
Quote:
Originally Posted by Steven N. View Post

Actually, we know that the US specifically achieved double digit growth and there is no support for your interpretation. We don't know if if was 10% or 22% but it was greater than 10% in the US.

Thank you for pointing it out to him. Don't know what the heck he is talking about.
post #42 of 123

So where are all the naysayers supporting the IDC article pissing and moaning about the prices of Apple's products and how the price is affecting Mac sales? Hmmm...where are you people? Why are Mac sales up if their products are perceived in your eyes as being too expensive for the general consumer? Please, I'd love to hear your story. :)

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post #43 of 123
Great article.
post #44 of 123
Quote:
Originally Posted by Constable Odo View Post
 

Why is it that Apple doesn't explain this to shareholders or potential investors?  Why doesn't Apple attempt to confront these research agencies if they're actually lying about the data.  I know that Apple doesn't have to explain anything because quarterly earnings speak for themselves, but if these research agencies are fraudulent then they need to be exposed.  Why is that Windows tablets are being counted but not iPads?  iPads now run Windows Office so it isn't as though they can be considered toys if Microsoft is giving them acknowledgement as viable business computers.  These research agencies shouldn't be allowed to skew the numbers unless they're giving reasons why one device is counted but not another.  If I were part of Apple's marketing department I would definitely confront these agencies for giving out false information and demand a retraction or something.  Bad market data may not be hurting Apple to any major degree but it certainly could be taking away potential investors who might be interested in Apple if they were being told the whole truth.  I hate to see crooks get away with crimes but I suppose nothing can be done about it.

Why would Apple want to do this? They've been spending billions of dollars doing record stock buy-backs at awesome prices. To be quite honest, Apple has (and is making) far more money than they know what to do with and don't need investors hence the stock buy-back. They don't mind the inaccurate bad press one bit. Tim Cook is one smart COOKie.


Edited by GadgetCanadaV2 - 7/27/14 at 11:32am

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post #45 of 123
Quote:
Originally Posted by GadgetCanadaV2 View Post
 

Why would Apple want to do this? They've been spending billions of dollars doing record stock buy-backs at awesome prices. They don't mind the inaccurate bad press one bit. Tim Cook is one smart COOKie.

 

Oh, man.  *shakes head*

 

:)

post #46 of 123
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frood View Post

Lol since my interpretation includes both the possibility that there was or was not double digit growth its hard for me to believe there's no support for it.

I'd be happy to move into the US double digit growth camp with any data whatsoever.

Then you need to learn English. Your interpretation is simply wrong.
post #47 of 123
Quote:
Originally Posted by RadarTheKat View Post

If Apple were to begin refuting what others say about it, this would present an opportunity for many to simply invent stories and numbers expressly designed to draw Apple's refutations and to thereby draw information out of Apple that Apple prefers to not reveal. The game would be to come out with a cleverly designed bit of misinformation that would place Apple in the position where the misinformation could only be refuted through revelation of some secret Apple would not otherwise reveal. If Apple chose not to respond to this bit of misinformation after having responded to other misinformation, then the market would take this lack of response as meaning the misinformation represented the truth. Through this Apple could be damaged in the market much worse than it has been through its policy of never commenting beyond occasionally adding some color around information it deliberately chooses to divulge.
I love that Apple does not stoop to try and 'correct' this information in any other way than releasing their own numbers. I also wonder if the misinformation actually serves Apple well. The people in the know surely must see right through it, and for the rest of the world... Well, Apple has always thrived on the underdog status and maybe these kind of reports prolongs that illusion.
post #48 of 123
Quote:
Originally Posted by ceek74 View Post

Both Gartner and IDC have been and always will be puppets of Microsoft.
Of course, but for those less inclined to believe, here are some past IDC "predictions"
2011: IDC said by 2015, the smartphone market would be 39.5% Android, WindowsPhone 20.9% and iPhone 15.7%.
2012 Update: IDC said by 2016, Android 52.9%, WindowsPhone 19.2% and iPhone 19%.

Apart from seemingly changing their numbers retrospectively, I have to ask...is it even possible to be more spectacularly wrong?
If people are buying this stuff, then they deserve to be fooled.
post #49 of 123
I'm just waiting for HAMETA to chime in on this. 1smile.gif
post #50 of 123

It scares me when people start talking about Apple moving away from Intel chips in their Macs. The move to Intel was the reason I started investing in Apple. I am a frequent VMWare user for some key Windows only software that is not available for the Mac. Unless Apple has their own Intel compatible chip in the works, it would be a very bad idea to produce a Mac that is not capable of running Windows software. 

post #51 of 123
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post
However, apart from the truth, the primary victims of this sort of sycophant market data appears to be Microsoft, Google and their Windows and Android licensees, who have been lulled into passive slumber by soothing praise that tells them they are winning when they actually are not.

 

Windows isn't 'winning'. Windows has won.  It has 90%+ market share for desktop operating systems. How is that 'not winning'?

post #52 of 123
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frac View Post

Of course, but for those less inclined to believe, here are some past IDC "predictions"
2011: IDC said by 2015, the smartphone market would be 39.5% Android, WindowsPhone 20.9% and iPhone 15.7%.
2012 Update: IDC said by 2016, Android 52.9%, WindowsPhone 19.2% and iPhone 19%.

Apart from seemingly changing their numbers retrospectively, I have to ask...is it even possible to be more spectacularly wrong?
If people are buying this stuff, then they deserve to be fooled.

I often wonder why they can't be sued by investors who naively took that as a valid prognosis? Where's the class action suit.
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post #53 of 123
Quote:
Originally Posted by Euphonious View Post

Windows isn't 'winning'. Windows has won.  It has 90%+ market share for desktop operating systems. How is that 'not winning'?

Because. Post PC world. Keep up.
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post #54 of 123
Kudos to Apple. I think they are leaving some money on the table at the moment with fairly tepid updates. I want a 15 inch mac book pro with a flash drive and Touch ID. Preferably thinner. My existing 2012 model will do until that happens. It's pretty good. They can push the upgrade cycle by adding these kinds of functionality.
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post #55 of 123
Quote:
Originally Posted by Euphonious View Post
 

Windows isn't 'winning'. Windows has won.  It has 90%+ market share for desktop operating systems. How is that 'not winning'?

 

Did you not read the article at all?  Or do you just not understand it? You seem to have drunk the KoolAid from IDC and Gartner.  The PC market is shrinking, but Apple's selling MORE Macs. Therefore it's share of the PC market is increasing. And Microsoft is LOSING share.  Losing.  Microsoft is doomed™.

post #56 of 123
Quote:
Originally Posted by Euphonious View Post

Windows isn't 'winning'. Windows has won.  It has 90%+ market share for desktop operating systems. How is that 'not winning'?

Windows has the bigger number for sure. But does that mean Apple is losing?

Look at how many PC manufacturers have disappeared from the market. IBM, Compaq, Sony, Gateway, etc. They sold themselves to other companies because they couldn't cut it on their own. BTW... all those companies were selling "Windows" computers.

Hell... HP and Dell were thinking about exiting the consumer PC market too because the market was becoming too saturated and they were barely making money.

You can blame it on the fact that all those companies were selling garbage PCs with almost no margin. But that was their decision.

And then there's Apple who found a niche market and is one of the most, if not THE most, successful PC manufacturers.

"Windows" is "winning" but it's not quite the victory you think it is.
post #57 of 123
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post


How can they be proven fraudulent? These are projections and in no way are considered to be actual numbers

"Projections" are normally estimates of the future, while these are of the past. I don't think "projections" is the correct term for what they do. 

 

Further if this data isn't supposed to imply "actual numbers", then that is typically done with rounding, but IDC gives data down to the SINGLE UNITS.  That's called false precision if that's an estimate. It's ludicrous to estimate down to the single digits. Given that IDC is data driven, and have numerous statisticians on their payroll, the use of data down to the single digits has to be intentional, which means the implied precision is intentional, which of course is misleading.

post #58 of 123
Quote:
Originally Posted by Euphonious View Post
 

 

Windows isn't 'winning'. Windows has won.  It has 90%+ market share for desktop operating systems. How is that 'not winning'?

90+% marketshare when Apple has greater than 50% profitshare is "not winning". When Lenovo makes less than $10 a PC, that's "not winning". When HP and Dell are abandoning the consumer PC market, that's "not winning". When Leo Apotheker tries to sell the PC business, that's a sure sign they're "not winning". When Dell takes the business private, so as not to have to report their sales, that's a sure sign they're "not winning".

 

http://www.asymco.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Screen-Shot-2014-07-23-at-7-23-5.22.59-PM1.png

 

Take a look at the bottom two charts from Horace Dediu at Asymco. Windows is "not winning", contrary to what you may have heard. Without profits, a business cannot reinvest in the future.

post #59 of 123

Lenovo, HP and Dell don't make Windows.  Windows is winning in its game, which is generating profit from software ubiquity.  Apple is winning its game, which is generating profit from hardware.  Windows seems to be winning less than it was last year, and Apple is winning more, but they're both still winning.

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post #60 of 123
On and on about this. The reason sales have decreased is because people want to get the new stuff that comes in. Not get the current model and then tomorrow a new one comes out. Also after WWDC's announcement people are definitely going to wait a little bit.
post #61 of 123
Quote:
Originally Posted by pringsmuth View Post

It scares me when people start talking about Apple moving away from Intel chips in their Macs. The move to Intel was the reason I started investing in Apple. I am a frequent VMWare user for some key Windows only software that is not available for the Mac. Unless Apple has their own Intel compatible chip in the works, it would be a very bad idea to produce a Mac that is not capable of running Windows software. 
Hmm. Seems to me nearly everyone I know is using Parallels to run PC software, not BootCamp. So it might not be all that big a deal in the last analysis. Also, Macs are now only 15% of Apple's revenue stream.
The times, they are achangin'....
post #62 of 123
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sacto Joe View Post

Also, Macs are now only 15% of Apple's revenue stream.
The times, they are achangin'....

I suspect that percentage will continue to drop as Mac sales and their profit percentage of the traditional PC market grows.

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post #63 of 123
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

I suspect that percentage will continue to drop as Mac sales and their profit percentage of the traditional PC market grows.

Do you mean increase?
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post #64 of 123
Quote:
Originally Posted by asdasd View Post

Do you mean increase?

No, I feel that Mac sales as a percentage of Apple's total business will likely continue to fall, especially if a new protect category gets introduced.

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post #65 of 123
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeaEarleGreyHot View Post

Microsoft is doomed™.

Damn. I should have trademarked it! lol.gif
post #66 of 123
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crowley View Post
 

Lenovo, HP and Dell don't make Windows.  Windows is winning in its game, which is generating profit from software ubiquity.  Apple is winning its game, which is generating profit from hardware.  Windows seems to be winning less than it was last year, and Apple is winning more, but they're both still winning.


And Motorola is winning by making all the BlackBerrys. And Windows Phone is winning because its on every Lumina. And there are some Lumina phones with really high resolution cameras! And Surface is winning as the Windows hybrid-tablet that isn't an actual notebook.

 

Except that nobody is buying those things and they aren't profitable. 

post #67 of 123
IDC and Gartner need to spend less time their cubicles making predictions based on databases and more time talking to real people and walking into real stores.
post #68 of 123
Quote:
Originally Posted by pringsmuth View Post
 

It scares me when people start talking about Apple moving away from Intel chips in their Macs. The move to Intel was the reason I started investing in Apple. I am a frequent VMWare user for some key Windows only software that is not available for the Mac. Unless Apple has their own Intel compatible chip in the works, it would be a very bad idea to produce a Mac that is not capable of running Windows software. 

Even more important to professionals is that much of the really high end Mac software needs to run on an x86 chip as well. People sometimes assume that Xcode will simply recompile for whatever new architecture is targeted, failing to realize that almost all of the high end Mac business software is built in C++ precompiled executables and if they use Xcode at all it is just the last step in assembling main.

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post #69 of 123
Quote:
Originally Posted by Euphonious View Post
 

 

Windows isn't 'winning'. Windows has won.  It has 90%+ market share for desktop operating systems. How is that 'not winning'?

What's your definition of winning? That's the key. Basic market share seems to be the answer here. 

 

You don't need to be 90% of the market to be winning. What about profits? What about potential growth?

 

But, if MS has "won" at 90% share, who really cares? It's the mobile space and profits that matter.

 

Many tools are moving to the web. Platform doesn't matter often.

 

As I mentioned in an earlier post, most of our household is iPhone only. We do have one MacBook and a Chromebook, and that is more than enough.

 

P

post #70 of 123
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post

Nice attempt at spinning what Cook said. He didn't combine those regions to make up double digit growth.

I'm not spinning what he said at all, just saying read what he said.

Its a lot like when he said "Apple does not offshore money on some island in the Cayman Islands or some other island in the Bahamas" to Congress. That was an absolutely true statement.
post #71 of 123
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frood View Post

I'm not spinning what he said at all, just saying read what he said.

Its a lot like when he said "Apple does not offshore money on some island in the Cayman Islands or some other island in the Bahamas" to Congress. That was an absolutely true statement.

You are spinning.
1. Cook mentioned in his overview US Mac sales were strong.
2. Growth rate was 18% across all Mac market segments.
3. He did not say "combined." He highlighted the regions that were strong.
4 why even mention US if they were weak?
post #72 of 123

do IDC and Gartner ever correct their numbers after actual reports like Apple's?

post #73 of 123

NO

post #74 of 123

I think that the issue with IDC/Gartner is that they are almost always wrong -- and wrong in the exact same direction.

 

If one were working with no bias, then sometimes one would under-estimate, sometimes one would over-estimate.  

post #75 of 123
Quote:
Originally Posted by pringsmuth View Post

It scares me when people start talking about Apple moving away from Intel chips in their Macs. The move to Intel was the reason I started investing in Apple. I am a frequent VMWare user for some key Windows only software that is not available for the Mac. Unless Apple has their own Intel compatible chip in the works, it would be a very bad idea to produce a Mac that is not capable of running Windows software. 

Riiight. Sure. Except was running Windows on my PowerPC Mac back in the day, when I stilled cared about Windows.

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post #76 of 123
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frood View Post

I'm not spinning what he said at all, just saying read what he said.

Its a lot like when he said "Apple does not offshore money on some island in the Cayman Islands or some other island in the Bahamas" to Congress. That was an absolutely true statement.

Give it up man. Cook's comment was as clear as day. The US had double digit growth. Cook does not try to trick investors in his conference calls. He never has. If this Bezo's of Amazon then you may have a point.

If what you are saying is true why didn't Cook say the same thing about the iPhone? He didn't because that would be misleading.
post #77 of 123
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frood View Post


I'm not spinning what he said at all, just saying read what he said.

Its a lot like when he said "Apple does not offshore money on some island in the Cayman Islands or some other island in the Bahamas" to Congress. That was an absolutely true statement.

Stop making stupid statements.

Or, do us all a favor, and leave.
post #78 of 123
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris_CA View Post
 

They are factual estimates. (However, they could be intentionally or mistakenly skewed).

These statements are issued prior to any/all data being released by Apple so they can only be an estimate based on any number of things.

 

dictionary.com

estimate

 
[v. es-tuh-meyt; n. es-tuh-mit, -meyt] IPA Syllables
 

 

verb (used with object), estimated, estimating.

1.
to form an approximate judgment or opinion regarding the worth,amount, size, weight, etc., of; calculate approximately:
to estimate the cost of a college education.
2.
to form an opinion of; judge.

verb (used without object), estimated, estimating.

3.
to make an estimate.

noun

4.
an approximate judgment or calculation, as of the value, amount,time, size, or weight of something.
5.
a judgment or opinion, as of the qualities of a person or thing.
6.
a statement of the approximate charge for work to be done,submitted by a person or business firm ready to undertake the work.

No, "factual estimate" is an oxymoron. It's right there in the definition - an estimate is an approximation, an opinion - not a fact. The statement that "My estimate is..." may be factual; a story that reports that "their estimate is..." may be factual; but the estimate itself cannot be factual.

post #79 of 123
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Originally Posted by elroth View Post

No, "factual estimate" is an oxymoron. It's right there in the definition - an estimate is an approximation, an opinion - not a fact. The statement that "My estimate is..." may be factual; a story that reports that "their estimate is..." may be factual; but the estimate itself cannot be factual.

Adding to that, an estimate can be from a source that one considers principled, ethical, trustworthy, reliable, etc. but by definition an estimate is not a fact, although the results may turn out to be factual once they can be verified.

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post #80 of 123
Quote:
Originally Posted by elroth View Post
 

No, "factual estimate" is an oxymoron. It's right there in the definition - an estimate is an approximation, an opinion - not a fact. The statement that "My estimate is..." may be factual; a story that reports that "their estimate is..." may be factual; but the estimate itself cannot be factual.

 

A (fact-based, scientifically arrived at) approximation is NOT THE SAME as an opinion.

 

For the past two Presidential elections, for example, I avidly read Nate Silver and Nate Cohen, followed various polling over months.  In 2008 I correctly predicted the results in 49 of 50 states.  In 2012, I was 50 for 50.  So, in the last two elections combined I have a 99% accuracy rate.

 

Now, let's be fair: It really isn't difficult to predict what's going to happen in CA or MS.  That leaves us with the 10-ish "swing states" to really have to make any sort of choice.  Out the ~20 swing states that were up for grabs in the two elections, I am 19-20.  I incorrectly gave NC to McCain in 2008.

 

In today's final Singles at the LPGA International Crown (that's golf), there were 10 Singles matches.  I was 10-10.

 

An informed prediction is a HELL OF A LOT different than an opinion.

 

An opinion is something like "Blake Lively has amazing legs," (well, that's practically FACT, but anyways ...) or "Hunger Games" was better than "Catching Fire."

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