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Apple likely to ship only 3 million 'iWatch' units this year, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says

post #1 of 72
Thread Starter 
Market expectations for Apple's anticipated "iWatch" may be grossly overestimated, as well-connected analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said on Thursday that he expects that only 3 million wrist-worn smart devices from Apple will make it to store shelves by the end of this year.

iWatchiWatch concept by Todd Hamilton


In a note to investors, a copy of which was obtained by AppleInsider, Kuo of KGI Securities said he believes the market is expecting that Apple will ship between 5 million and 10 million "iWatch" units before the end of 2014. But he now expects that issues will push production of the device will be pushed back from September to the second half of November, resulting in fewer units available.

This anticipated shorter period of production has prompted Kuo to decrease his projected build plans from 5 million units this year to just 3 million units.

In addition, Kuo also anticipates that Apple may face sapphire cover lens production bottlenecks. As a result, he predicts that at least half of finished "iWatch" products will ship with glass covers instead of sapphire.

Kuo said that his checks within Apple's supply chain suggest that TPK will supply the touch module for the "iWatch," while the lamination services of the touch module and accompanying AMOLED display will be handled by LG Display.

Thursday's note is just the latest in a series of reports that have claimed that the "iWatch" has hit a number of issues in its development as Apple races to bring the product to market. A number of rumors have pegged manufacturing of the device to begin in the fourth quarter, which would be very late for a product expected to launch in time for the holiday shopping season.

Kuo himself had already reported earlier this month that wide distribution of the "iWatch" won't happen until December, and cautioned that availability will likely be well below market expectations. He reiterated that stance again Thursday, emphasizing that "excess market optimism" could have a negative affect on shares of the company.

Part of the issues are said to stem from the fact that Apple is deviating from its normal component cache to more advanced -- and difficult to manufacture -- parts and materials.

For example, the iWatch is thought to sport a flexible AMOLED display complete with sapphire cover glass. Apple has never deployed an OLED display in a consumer product, nor has the company fielded a product with such a large sapphire glass installation. So far, the largest sapphire part in any iOS device has been the protective Touch ID covering seen on the iPhone 5s.
post #2 of 72

Sweet! I want to be an analyst. Let me give it a shot: I predict zero iPhone 7's will be sold this year because there were production problems and its release was delayed until fall of 2015 or 2016.

post #3 of 72
Apologies for the language but how the f*ck does this qualify as "breaking" anything?!? 1rolleyes.gif
post #4 of 72
Yeah he predicts a lot of junk. Shameless stock manipulation .
What is really factored into the price is a kind of perpetual sense of disbelief that any company could be as good as Apple is. ~Retrogusto
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What is really factored into the price is a kind of perpetual sense of disbelief that any company could be as good as Apple is. ~Retrogusto
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post #5 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by palomine View Post

Yeah he predicts a lot of junk. Shameless stock manipulation .
And yet AI throws this up on their website under the red "breaking" banner.
post #6 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post


And yet AI throws this up on their website under the red "breaking" banner.

Boggles the mind, doesn't it?  Unsubstantiated rumors on an unannounced product push back a made-up launch date and reduce a wild-guess number of sales.  Oy.

post #7 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by Freshmaker View Post
 

Boggles the mind, doesn't it?  Unsubstantiated rumors on an unannounced product push back a made-up launch date and reduce a wild-guess number of sales.  Oy.

Marketing. 

post #8 of 72

F*** MING

 

From now on that will be my response to any post about this 'well connected' Ming

post #9 of 72
As a note to investors, who takes this guy seriously, seriously. Glass instead of Sapphire really? you think they would make two versions or ship something that is half done.
post #10 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by Negafox View Post

Sweet! I want to be an analyst. Let me give it a shot: I predict zero iPhone 7's will be sold this year because there were production problems and its release was delayed until fall of 2015 or 2016.

Aww, Man! I was holding out. Boo!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

Apologies for the language but how the f*ck does this qualify as "breaking" anything?!? 1rolleyes.gif

And an alert on the iPhone app. Amazing! Apple may only sell a few million of an item they've yet to announce!
post #11 of 72

This should be quite the accomplishment, since there never will be an iWatch.

post #12 of 72

These analysts cannot get shipment and release numbers AFTER the quarter has passed, and now they expect us to buy their numbers from before the product has even been announced?

post #13 of 72

Why is it breaking news that Apple might ship a number of a rumored product?

post #14 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by j1h15233 View Post

Why is it breaking news that Apple might ship a number of a rumored product?
AI involved in stock manipulation?
post #15 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post


And yet AI throws this up on their website under the red "breaking" banner.

 

Breaking wind, perhaps.

 

I think it would be awesome if either Apple sued these analysts for slander/libel or if the SEC were to investigate these mouthpieces for blatant stock manipulation or misrepresentation of facts.

 

Although there was this in 2010:  http://forums.appleinsider.com/t/115027/apple-analysts-under-sec-investigation-for-channel-checks

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #16 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

Breaking wind, perhaps.

I think it would be awesome if either Apple sued these analysts for slander/libel or if the SEC were to look into these mouthpieces.
So AI wants us to believe Apple will ship some "iWatches" with glass and some with sapphire and I guess it's just consumers luck of the draw whether they get sapphire or not? I mean seriously?!?
post #17 of 72
Shouldn't it be...."well-Disconnected analyst Ming-Chi Kuo....."
post #18 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post


AI involved in stock manipulation?

 

The whole stock market hit the skids today, so I don't think AI has that much influence. ; )

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #19 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post


So AI wants us to believe Apple will ship some "iWatches" with glass and some with sapphire and I guess it's just consumers luck of the draw whether they get sapphire or not? I mean seriously?!?

 

But they'll only ship THREE MILLION of a fictitious product! How many fictitious products did Samsung ship? Clearly Apple is falling behind!  /s

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #20 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

Breaking wind, perhaps.

I think it would be awesome if either Apple sued these analysts for slander/libel or if the SEC were to investigate these mouthpieces for blatant stock manipulation or misrepresentation of facts.

Although there was this in 2010:  http://forums.appleinsider.com/t/115027/apple-analysts-under-sec-investigation-for-channel-checks
It would be nice if rumor sites didn't publish this stuff which just pushes it out there even more. You know sites like Business Insider are constantly checking Apple rumor sites for D&G and FUD they can publish.
post #21 of 72
Stop the presses!
post #22 of 72

This is how Tim Cook feels about this rumor of MING

 

CREATOR: gd-jpeg v1.0 (using IJG JPEG v62), quality = 85

post #23 of 72
Quote:
 a copy of which was obtained by AppleInsider,...

 

Kuo sent it to your gmail account?

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
Reply

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
Reply
post #24 of 72
Breaking news: I am declaring that my earlier prediction was wrong.

In other breaking news I am contradicting my earlier conjecture.
post #25 of 72
Off topic but I was just reading about the new Kyocera phone releases on Verizon with a 4.5 inch sapphire display? Does anyone know who produces the displays for their phones?
post #26 of 72

Yep. Just pick any device you wish:

"Hey a new retina display iMac. It's coming, but release has been pushed back another 6 months."

Mark my words. (I'm an analyst)

post #27 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by Suddenly Newton View Post
 

 

Kuo sent it to your gmail account?

 

Yes, I'd like a lot more transparency on this. Is Ming paying AppleInsider to spread his nonsense? If so, it might qualify as something the SEC would be interested in investigating.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #28 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post


And yet AI throws this up on their website under the red "breaking" banner.

 

Breaking wind, perhaps.

:lol::lol::lol::lol:

post #29 of 72
Kuo= fud for payola !
post #30 of 72
post #31 of 72

Hey, here's a better story. I'll post a link here before the AI authors repackage it and serve it up.

 

San Francisco Airport testing beacon system for blind travelers

App will tell visually-impaired travelers, and eventually everyone, what's around them at all times

 

http://www.theverge.com/2014/7/31/5956265/san-francisco-airport-testing-beacon-system-for-blind-travelers

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

Reply

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #32 of 72

How the hell can anyone predict the sales of an unknown product?  It becomes even more difficult when it's a completely unannounced product.  These analysts are allowed to get away with too much freedom of conjecture and they really take themselves too seriously.  Even if he is being paid to spread nonsense, why in the world would anyone give credence to him as being a reliable source.

post #33 of 72

That guy has one hell of a crystal ball or I want to be on the drugs he is on. Where the hell do these guys pull these numbers from.

post #34 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by palomine View Post

Yeah he predicts a lot of junk. Shameless stock manipulation .

Yeah he is trying to make sure that when the market recovers Apple recovers even more.

post #35 of 72

Incidentally (text bolded and in red for clarity):

 
KGI Securities Investment Advisory Co. Ltd
Information on securities/instruments traded in Taiwan is distributed by KGI Securities Investment Advisory Co. Ltd. All information is believed to come from reliable sources; however, we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy and therefore will not be liable for any loss incurred. This report is for reference only and is not itself an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. KGI Securities Investment Advisory Co. Ltd. and its affiliates and their officers and employees may or may not have a position in or with respect to the securities mentioned herein....

 

http://research.kgi.com.tw/KGI1/index.htm

 

A firm that allows employees to hold positions on the securities they are covering should make everyone nervous about trusting their "free advice". Such analysts may be compromised and in my opinion are facing a clear-cut conflict of interest.


Edited by SpamSandwich - 7/31/14 at 2:33pm

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #36 of 72
While rumors about the iWatch need to be taken with a huge grain of salt, there is an internal logic in the article regarding the sapphire and AMOLED display. Regarding Sapphire, Apple has progressed in steps from camera to touch to perhaps iWatch and eventually iPhone. And since Apple chose to not include TouchID last year, due to novelty, differentiation, but also supply and manufacturing, that this might apply to iWatch is reasonable. Similarly, Apple has looked into AMOLED (power saving and thinness are a big draw), but while there are some nice aspect, e.g., saturation the tech is expensive and does not work well in daylight, prob a serious issue for iWatch.

Therefore, Apple production theoretically being impacted seems logical, but it is very dangerous ground to tread. Apple has many many issues associated with a wearable that outsiders have no clue about, since basically no-one really knows the "job to be done" for an Apple wearable, therefore IF Apple is pursuing this seriously with a launch in 2014, the host of unknown issues and constraints mean prognosticating when it might appear and what it might do very speculative.

I see the same rumors and speculations on Apple TV, or Apple billing system based on App and iTunes infrastructure, etc., and while entertaining anyone who is making serious investment decisions based on these rumors is gambling, in fact, is prob better off worth with gambling at Las Vegas or the Lottery where the odds are very straight forward.
post #37 of 72
A note to my investors...I expect 15-20M iWatch units to ship in the first weekend. The ramp-up to the holiday season will see a total of 186.7M iWatches fly off the shelves, 353.24M iPhone 6s, 1.352B iTVs (that's right, billion), and a yet to be named product....uhmm, lets say 450M. I see no manufacturing issues with anything.

If Ming-Chi Kuo can pull crap out of his arse, so can I.
post #38 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

This is how Tim Cook feels about this rumor of MING
And Jony Ive...

28b6sde.jpg
post #39 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post


So AI wants us to believe Apple will ship some "iWatches" with glass and some with sapphire and I guess it's just consumers luck of the draw whether they get sapphire or not? I mean seriously?!?

Apple did that in the past with some Mac Airs. Some of them had Samsung SSD and some of them Toshiba SSD. The ones with Samsung SSD were much faster.  http://www.zdnet.com/blog/apple/2011-macbook-air-shipping-with-fast-samsung-and-slow-toshiba-ssds/10701

post #40 of 72

I wish I could sit around all day and make statements about non-existent things AND get paid for it.

 

In the real world I'd get dragged in for a psych-eval.

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