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Continued production issues may force Apple to delay 'iWatch' until 2015, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo... - Page 2

post #41 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by fallenjt View Post

Maybe Apple is not making iWatch after all, but a health tracking device which should be like Nike Fuel band or Fitbit Flex with more integrated sensors. The sole purpose of the device is for health and fitness, not a limited "mini phone" smart watch. This device should be only worn during exercise or fitness activities, not all the time. Apple should not design a device to replace a traditional watch because that would be a dumb move. 
Considering Jony Ive is supposedly a watch aficionado and owns a number of very expensive watches I doubt he would sign off on something like the Moto Almost 360 which is just a poor mans attempt at creating a luxury looking device. That could mean Apple goes in a completely different direction so there are no comparisons to traditional expensive timepieces.
post #42 of 80
Track record! Seriously you can only be wrong so many times.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sprint3GIssues View Post

Unpopular statement probably but... Why does everyone get so wound up when Kuo and others re calibrate their assertions based on the latest information available to them?
You make an assumption here that he has information. Further he may have other motives for his comments, he does work in an industry with deep ethical issues.
Quote:

I fully believe that to the best of their knowledge at any point in time they are providing their clients with relevant information.
Hey it is a free country. You can even believe that he has his hands up in the air to surrender. If you want to be gullible go on with life as you are.
Quote:
If China imposed an export ban and no iPhones could be shipped out of the country, Kuo again would need to adjust his analysis. Would the guy be attacked for that? I'm sure at some point in the beginning of this year Apple thought they would deliver a wearable product this year.

We don't even know for sure they have a watch planned.
post #43 of 80

Good, let Apple get it right before they release the product, unlike every other smartwatch that has been released over the past year (except maybe the Pebble). 

post #44 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

When it's the right time. This means the technology is here at the mass market level and the market is ready for it, which includes the price point being correct. Look at the history of the tablet market to see how Apple nailed this in 2010 despite decades of attempts.
When do you think the time will be right? If we get something this fall from Apple does that mean the time was right?
post #45 of 80
Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post
They being management at Apple.


That would imply that Apple thought anything about it at all. The iWatch has never been anything but a fabrication.

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already f*ed.

 

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Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already f*ed.

 

Reply
post #46 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

When do you think the time will be right? If we get something this fall from Apple does that mean the time was right?

I don't know how I can be any more clear.

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post #47 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Why? We have no evidence of it whatsoever. Are they making an HDTV, too?

No evidence other than the fact they hired all of these watch experts away from some pretty high profile companies that specialize in making watches and wearables. Other than that naw, Apple's not making a wearable item at all. I mean why would they hire those people to help build something they don't specialize in?

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post #48 of 80
Originally Posted by macxpress View Post
No evidence other than the fact they hired all of these watch experts away from some pretty high profile companies that specialize in making watches and wearables. Other than that naw, Apple's not making a wearable item at all. I mean why would they hire those people to help build something they don't specialize in?

 

So... no evidence, then.

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already f*ed.

 

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Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already f*ed.

 

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post #49 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by Benjamin Frost View Post

I find it very hard to envisage hundreds of millions of people all wearing identical Apple watches, unless they can be customised in look, which is why I feel they would need to get several watch makers on board.
Why not? Everybody on Star Trek basically had the same communications device. Today Apple can't even be bothered to introduce two truly new iPhobes a year.

These days people customize their expensive electronics with cheap but expensive rubber. Most people aren't that vain these days.
post #50 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

So... no evidence, then.

Nope, none at all.... /s

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post #51 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post


That would imply that Apple thought anything about it at all. The iWatch has never been anything but a fabrication.

I believe they thought about it. I don't see the market for a smart watch and I doubt Apple does. They could easily be working on something different. I just don't see iWatch doing anything useful for me and frankly some of the speculated features could be seen as harmful.

It would be like giving a rope to somebody that is suicidal. Or in modern terms giving a text capable cell phone to a new female driver.
post #52 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post
As I've stated I think wearables are going to be a huge market but only when the time is right for them to happen. Apple builds when they have something, not simply because it's been x-duration.

 

So, this is one of the big reasons why I believe this year is when it comes out. Apple has been working intently on this since at least 2009 and it's involved Jony Ive and quite a few other wearables legends between then and today. See this article from March 2010 talking about how "DeVaul will be working under Jonny Ive in a secret lab focused on wearable computing technology where only seven people besides Ive and CEO Steve Jobs know what he is doing." This "secret lab focused on wearable[s]" was under the main public radar at the time, and the rumor mill didn't really explode on Apple+wearables until January of last year when the project went to full construction mode and started involving a few hundred people instead of a few dozen.

 

With the lengthy timeline of exploration and development, combined with the expansion of personnel on the project starting 2 years ago, along with the hirings within the past year of a number of top-tier fashion executives well-versed in selling "jewelry & fashion" style products, I don't know how you could say they aren't nearing reveal of the product. Tim Cook's comments from earlier this year seem to reinforce that feeling with an actual date range (this year), and thus we now have "the iWatch".

 

What kind of data or reasoning do you (or TallestSkil) have to back up your position that they aren't looking to release a wearables product soon, or haven't been working on a wearables product at all (which is more TS's apparent view than your own)?

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post #53 of 80
Originally Posted by macxpress View Post
Nope, none at all.... /s

 

Thanks for agreeing. When we start to see leaked parts or schematics or orders or even an uptick in three year old patents that would be relevant, you let us know. Until then, the iWatch is as real as the iTV.

 

Originally Posted by Smiles77 View Post
See this article from March 2010 talking about how "DeVaul will be working under Jonny Ive in a secret lab focused on wearable computing technology where only seven people besides Ive and CEO Steve Jobs know what he is doing."

 

I love Seth as much as the next guy, but where’s his proof of this assertion?

 
...the project went to full construction mode and started involving a few hundred people instead of a few dozen.

 

Of which we’ve seen nothing.

 
I don't know how you could say they aren't nearing reveal of the product. 

 

No parts, no orders, no components, no uptick in relevant patents, no leaks of any sort from any supplier or manufacturer... Like the TV. And the 2.5” iPhone. And the 5.5” iPhone.

 
Tim Cook’s comments from earlier this year seem to reinforce that feeling...

 

I seem to have forgotten them. Do you have a quote somewhere?

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already f*ed.

 

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Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already f*ed.

 

Reply
post #54 of 80
If this analyst Ming-Chi Kuo as a respected entity in media is right than more power kudos to him. If not than he should keep his mouth shut for few years. Right thing to do. Otherwise every tom dick and harry can make baseless opinion in media to impact stock movement to benefit some.
post #55 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smiles77 View Post

What kind of data or reasoning do you (or TallestSkil) have to back up your position that they aren't looking to release a wearables product soon, or haven't been working on a wearables product at all (which is more TS's apparent view than your own)?

I have no such reasoning. I feel as though we're on the cusp on this being able to happen. I feel this way based on looking at other products that are on or coming to market. So far none of them are very good but they all have parts that are decent. Once you add Apple to the equation I can see it happening, which is not unlike all those rumours of an "iTablet" with a crapload of crappy craplets at CES right before Apple demoed the iPad.

I can also see how early 2015 might be a better time, but that might be my desire for Apple to space out their release schedules like they used to instead of having everything released all within a month or two of each other. I think sapphire makes the most sense on a smaller display first, one that might start with lower volume product (IOW, not the iPhone which sold 52 million units last Christmas Holiday Quarter), and one that already is accustomed to that sort of display tech because it both needs it, like smacking your wrist into things, and expects it, like quality watch faces.

But again, my wishes are meaningless here. The only thing I somewhat know is that Apple has a good history of only releasing products when the time is right to reinvent a market with great success. Will they be successful again? We don't know, but history is with them.

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post #56 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post
Originally Posted by Smiles77 View Post
I don't know how you could say they aren't nearing reveal of the product. 

 

No parts, no orders, no components, no uptick in relevant patents, no leaks of any sort from any supplier or manufacturer... Like the TV. And the 2.5” iPhone. And the 5.5” iPhone.

 
Tim Cook’s comments from earlier this year seem to reinforce that feeling...

 

I seem to have forgotten them. Do you have a quote somewhere?

But isn't the lack of parts the exact sort of thing you'd expect from a top-secret new project? We had no idea what the iPad was gonna look like – no parts leaked, no orders, nothing – until an hour before the event when we finally saw a staff member unboxing them and showing us the backs.

 

As far as Tim Cook's comments go, here's Forbes "he did assure analysts 2014 would be a year of new category-defining products. When asked if Apple still planned to move into new categories in coming months, Cook’s quickly answered. “Yes. Absolutely."" and BusinessInsider a month later "[Cook] said, "There will be new categories. We're not ready to talk about it, but we're working on some really great stuff." When he was pressed on whether that means new iterations of the iPad, or entirely new stuff that doesn't exist at all, Cook declined to comment. He just said that any "reasonable" person would consider what Apple is working on to be a new category.""

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post #57 of 80

Or mid 2016.

Or early 2017.

Or 2033, where it was voted "best watch" and sold with a free bottle of Svedka.

 

Seriously, Ming needs to go back to the last job he was good at: "sucky sucky, five dollah"

post #58 of 80
Originally Posted by Smiles77 View Post
But isn't the lack of parts the exact sort of thing you'd expect from a top-secret new project?

 

Absence of evidence is not evidence of non absence... 

 

As far as Tim Cook's comments go, here's Forbes "he did assure analysts 2014 would be a year of new category-defining products. When asked if Apple still planned to move into new categories in coming months, Cook’s quickly answered. “Yes. Absolutely."" and BusinessInsider a month later "[Cook] said, "There will be new categories. We're not ready to talk about it, but we're working on some really great stuff." When he was pressed on whether that means new iterations of the iPad, or entirely new stuff that doesn't exist at all, Cook declined to comment. He just said that any "reasonable" person would consider what Apple is working on to be a new category.""

 

I don’t see ‘watch’ or ‘wearable’ anywhere in that.

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already f*ed.

 

Reply

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already f*ed.

 

Reply
post #59 of 80

Bottom line:

No iWatch...

Maybe a Fitness/Health band...I love to see a $149 fitness band that bury Galaxy Gear and bunch of Android wearable devices.

No 5.5" iPhone 6

Maybe new Apple TV

No iPad Pro

Maybe iPad Air 2

post #60 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

I don’t see ‘watch’ or ‘wearable’ anywhere in that.

Neither did I say they were releasing either of those. I predict that they are, but gave specific room for literally any other new product. The reason my bet would be on the wearable is because they've been working on it so long, and that it's one of the three major unreleased products we're aware of them working heavily on (wearable, tv, payments) that seems closest to completion.

 

(forgive me if I've missed a major product we're aware they're currently working on but forgot to include)

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post #61 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post
 

 

Absence of evidence is not evidence of non absence... 

 

I don’t see ‘watch’ or ‘wearable’ anywhere in that.

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Smiles77 View Post
 

But isn't the lack of parts the exact sort of thing you'd expect from a top-secret new project? We had no idea what the iPad was gonna look like – no parts leaked, no orders, nothing – until an hour before the event when we finally saw a staff member unboxing them and showing us the backs.

 

As far as Tim Cook's comments go, here's Forbes "he did assure analysts 2014 would be a year of new category-defining products. When asked if Apple still planned to move into new categories in coming months, Cook’s quickly answered. “Yes. Absolutely."" and BusinessInsider a month later "[Cook] said, "There will be new categories. We're not ready to talk about it, but we're working on some really great stuff." When he was pressed on whether that means new iterations of the iPad, or entirely new stuff that doesn't exist at all, Cook declined to comment. He just said that any "reasonable" person would consider what Apple is working on to be a new category.""

New category: iPunked!

post #62 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smiles77 View Post

But isn't the lack of parts the exact sort of thing you'd expect from a top-secret new project?

You'd expect so additional security but at some point they need to source millions of components and have a manufacturer build their product. This would likely be a Chinese company (I don't think some contracted US company would be any more secretive). At some point there is just too much going on for Apple to be able to control every aspect despite their wishes.But if they think it'll only be, say, 1 million units per quarter then it would likely be kept secret for longer.

Or Apple could announce and demo this year with a release for next year. This could be done to get partners on-board (like with the Apple TV, even though that didn't work out as they wanted) or so they get people to keep from signing new contracts (like with the 6 months before the iPhone launch), or because they simply know they won't be able to keep it a secret a week or two before launch so they want to own the original announcement (which may be what they did with the iPad which didn't launch until April 2010, and that was only the WiFi version). Note the latter wasn't because they were still doing the MacWorld event for announcement as that ended in 2009.

I think it's reasonable to think they could be 3 to 6 months out from launching after they announce and demo a wearable.

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post #63 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by fallenjt View Post

No iWatch...
Maybe a Fitness/Health band...I love to see a $149 fitness band that bury Galaxy Gear and bunch of Android wearable devices.

How does that not fall under the category of the generic term iWatch. You wear it on your wrist and, like most (if not all) fitness bands with a display it will tell you the time. All iWatch really refers to is being a wrist-worn electronic device from Apple.
Edited by SolipsismX - 8/19/14 at 3:13pm

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post #64 of 80

Merriam Websters definintion:

 

watch:  a device that shows what time it is and that you wear on your wrist or carry in a pocket.

 

Based on this my iPhone is a watch.

 

Apple may make something that you wear on your wrist but it will not be called an iWatch.

 

People lets try a little harder on this.

post #65 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smiles77 View Post

But isn't the lack of parts the exact sort of thing you'd expect from a top-secret new project?

You'd expect so additional security but at some point they need to source millions of components and have a manufacturer build their product. This would likely be a Chinese company (I don't think some contracted US company would be any more secretive). At some point there is just too much going on for Apple to be able to control every aspect despite their wishes.But if they think it'll only be, say, 1 million units per quarter then it would likely be kept secret for longer.

Or Apple could announce and demo this year with a release for next year. This could be done to get partners on-board (like with the Apple TV, even though that didn't work out as they wanted) or so they get people to keep from signing new contracts (like with the 6 months before the iPhone launch), or because they simply know they won't be able to keep it a secret a week or two before launch so they want to own the original announcement (which may be what they did with the iPad which didn't launch until April 2010, and that was only the WiFi version). Note the latter wasn't because they were still doing the MacWorld event for announcement as that ended in 2009.

I think it's reasonable to think they could be 3 to 6 months out from launching after they announce and demo a wearable.


I agree with all your points here. In fact, I believe that under normal circumstances it'd be fairly probable that they would postpone the launch for next year at this point. The most significant factor in swaying me from that belief is Tim Cook's comments, which I believe he'll be held to strictly and I don't think he would have made lightly at all. And that's why I'm thinking wearables this fall: nothing else that I'm aware of is really close. I even question if Apple TV could stand in instead, since Apple's already been in that category for a while now – making it not 'new'.

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post #66 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by kent909 View Post

There will never be an iWatch!!!

Seems pretty shortsighted to say there will never be a wrist-worn electronic device from Apple.

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post #67 of 80
Quote:
Seems pretty shortsighted to say there will never be a wrist-worn electronic device from Apple.

See my revised post.

post #68 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by kent909 View Post

See my revised post.

Again, and as your definition clearly shows, the term watch is generic and the preceding 'i' simply means it's from Apple. I haven't seen any conversations here are debating the merits of specifically calling it an iWatch. First there would have to be a strong consensus on there being a wearables market Apple wants to delve further into. After that we could then try to figure out the best and/or most likely name.

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post #69 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post


Again, and as your definition clearly shows, the term watch is generic and the preceding 'i' simply means it's from Apple. I haven't seen any conversations here are debating the merits of specifically calling it an iWatch. First there would have to be a strong consensus on there being a wearables market Apple wants to delve further into. After that we could then try to figure out the best and/or most likely name.

My point is that if Apple does a wearable, I am sure it will be multifunctional.  One of those functions will be a clock and only because it will have timing functions and that requires clock capability. My car has a clock in it but it is called a car and not a clock. By choosing iWatch is just lazy and unimaginative. Or maybe easier to type than multifunctional wrist band.  

post #70 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smiles77 View Post


Impossible. Tim Cook said that they would enter new markets THIS YEAR. That does not mean 2015.

Calendar or fiscal?
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeaEarleGreyHot View Post

Seriously, Ming needs to go back to the last job he was good at: "sucky sucky, five dollah"

Hehe. That reminds me of the pussy menu in Patpong Night Market in Bangkok:



Quote:
Originally Posted by kent909 View Post

Apple may make something that you wear on your wrist but it will not be called an iWatch.

It may be a necklace. If it's going to tell me time/running pace et cetera it better be closer to my ear than my watch is.
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post #71 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post


How does that not fall under the category of the generic term iWatch. You wear it on your wrist and, like most (if not all) fitness bands with a display it will tell you the time. All iWatch really refers to is being a wrist-worn electronic device from Apple.

Last time I checked they patented iTime too...That makes more sense because all the sensors for fitness/exercise are associated with Time. iWatch makes more sense for a TV set than a watch on your wrist that's not intended as a time clock, but fitness measurements.

post #72 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by kent909 View Post

By choosing iWatch is just lazy and unimaginative.

Then so is iPhone, iPad, iMac, Mac mini, MacBook Pro, MacBook Air, Mac Pro, and arguably the iPod, although I don't recall pod being used in that way previously.

If you just want one example just take iPhone. That device is so much more than a phone. Phone is simply one app on the device but it's named as such because that's how people associate with that specific evolution of technology. The same could very well be true for iWatch as it follows in the exact same way for a wrist-worn consumer electronic device.

I've never really cared for any of Apple's nomenclature, especially the 'i' naming convention but believe me when I say they spend a lot of time figuring out what they believe will be most effective to sell their product. The thing about these unimaginative names is they quickly stop being titles but get fully associated to what they do or how one feels about them. You don't hear "iPhone" today and think "but it's more than a phone, it'll never catch on," do you?

Will it be iWatch or iTime or aWristocrat (classy¡)? I have no idea and frankly I don't care. My only desire is for a product that suits my needs.

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post #73 of 80
Ming-Chi Kuo is selling short.. trying to pull the stock down.. has been posting 'negative' stuff for weeks now... many of his 'rumors' have been countered by other analysts.. It's like they are battling over long and short.. and has nothing to do what reality.. lol
post #74 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by kent909 View Post

See my revised post.

Again, and as your definition clearly shows, the term watch is generic and the preceding 'i' simply means it's from Apple. I haven't seen any conversations here are debating the merits of specifically calling it an iWatch. First there would have to be a strong consensus on there being a wearables market Apple wants to delve further into. After that we could then try to figure out the best and/or most likely name.

Not in this thread, but we've had extensive debate on a possible name on AI in other threads. iTime is patented, not that that counts for a lot.
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post #75 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by PhilBoogie View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by Smiles77 View Post


Impossible. Tim Cook said that they would enter new markets THIS YEAR. That does not mean 2015.

Calendar or fiscal?
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeaEarleGreyHot View Post

Seriously, Ming needs to go back to the last job he was good at: "sucky sucky, five dollah"



It may be a necklace. If it's going to tell me time/running pace et cetera it better be closer to my ear than my watch is.

It's already been well established here—by those in the know—that the wearable will be a nose-ring.
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post #76 of 80

As much as I'd like to believe the iWatch was coming this year, there has been absolutely nothing happening. No parts, no product orders, no manufacturing leaks.....nothing. It's not happening right now. And because it is nearing the fall and Apple's major product launches, there is no possibility of that changing in 2014.

 

Kuo has no chance but to claim it is "delayed" because enough time has past without a peep to make it impossible for 2014. His guess was wrong, but instead of ever being wrong, he will continued to be heralded as an accurate analyst...for the 1 in 100 things he gets right, and the 99 he successfully backtracks on before its too late.

 

I think this guy is a joke and should not have his words freely republished.

post #77 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by Adrayven View Post

Ming-Chi Kuo is selling short.. trying to pull the stock down.. has been posting 'negative' stuff for weeks now... many of his 'rumors' have been countered by other analysts.. It's like they are battling over long and short.. and has nothing to do what reality.. lol


It has everything to do with reality. He realized he was completely wrong about Apple ever planning to create an iWatch or a 5.5 iPhone in 2014, and has successfully backtracked by using the common copout "manufacturing issues caused delay".

 

Considering he has been pulling the same for years, I can't imagine the issues Apple must be having with those products that have been having "manufacturing delays" for several years now.

post #78 of 80

I already preordered.  

post #79 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by pmz View Post
 

As much as I'd like to believe the iWatch was coming this year, there has been absolutely nothing happening. No parts, no product orders, no manufacturing leaks.....nothing. It's not happening right now. And because it is nearing the fall and Apple's major product launches, there is no possibility of that changing in 2014.

 

Kuo has no chance but to claim it is "delayed" because enough time has past without a peep to make it impossible for 2014. His guess was wrong, but instead of ever being wrong, he will continued to be heralded as an accurate analyst...for the 1 in 100 things he gets right, and the 99 he successfully backtracks on before its too late.

 

I think this guy is a joke and should not have his words freely republished.

I'd love to see that Apple had been intentionally leaking fake 4.7" and 5.5" iPhone 6 parts and that the real products are safely being kept secret, including the iWatch and the real iPhone 6, same size as the 5s.  I'd literally laugh my ass off.  Right off.

post #80 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by robogobo View Post
 

I'd love to see that Apple had been intentionally leaking fake 4.7" and 5.5" iPhone 6 parts and that the real products are safely being kept secret, including the iWatch and the real iPhone 6, same size as the 5s.  I'd literally laugh my ass off.  Right off.


I would love that too, but secrecy on that level just doesn't exist anymore. Not for iPhone. Too much money and too big of industry rides on iPhone. There are enough interested parties out there to assure that the iPhone cannot be completely kept secret this close to launch.

 

Unlike, for instance, the Mac Pro. Apple was able to blindside people with that product because such a small market segment was waiting for it, and many have given up on expecting it. There wasn't a whole industry of watchers, analysts, accessory makers and factory workers leaking info right and left.

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