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Shares of Apple end week at all-time high with 'iPhone 6' & 'iWatch' hype at fever pitch

post #1 of 58
Thread Starter 
Apple stock reached an all-time high in trading on Friday, and also finished the day at its highest-ever closing price, as investors and customers alike are clamoring to see what the secretive company has up its sleeve for a Sept. 9 media event.


The New York Stock Exchange, credit Carlos Delgado via Wikipedia.


Shares of AAPL stock closed the day on Friday at $102.50, which is a new record. Intraday trading also reached $102.90.

The company's stock trended upward since Wednesday as anticipation builds for the its event now less than a week and a half away. Though the date had already leaked, Apple made it official on Thursday, sending out invitations to members of the press for a Sept. 9 event in Cupertino, Calif.

The company is widely expected to use the event to formally unveil its next-generation "iPhone 6," as well as an all-new wearable "iWatch." Wall Street is particularly excited about the next iPhone, as Apple's hot selling handsets account for the lion's share of the company's profits.

Less certain is how a so-called "iWatch" might affect the company's bottom line, but investors may have to wait to find out: Though Apple's wearable device is expected to be revealed Sept. 9, the latest rumors suggest the device may not be ready to launch until early 2015.

Apple's current trading price has the company's market capitalization valued at $613.76 billion, which remains well behind its highest-ever market capitalization of over $665 billion. Apple's gains have also seen it nearly double its value from a 52-week low of $63.89, which occurred in September of 2013.

The company crossed the $100 threshold on Aug. 19, reaching levels the company had not seen since its previous all-time high in 2012, ahead of the iPhone 5 launch.
post #2 of 58
Classic pump and dump. Remember folks, buy low, sell high.
In other words, wait till after Sept.9 to buy, when traditionally Apple stock drops significantly.
post #3 of 58

Where are all the Android trolls from last year predicting Apple is sliding into the toilet?

“What would I do? I’d shut Apple down and give the money back to the shareholders”

Michael Dell - 1997

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“What would I do? I’d shut Apple down and give the money back to the shareholders”

Michael Dell - 1997

Reply
post #4 of 58
Amazingly, Apple's Fwd PE is still less than 15x. That of the market as a whole is over 17x....

If it traded at just the market's multiple, AAPL should be at $~120. Go figure.
post #5 of 58

I know I should sell at least some of my APPL on Monday.  

 

The internet trolls/Business Insider/CNBC/etc will complain about WHATEVER Apple releases, and APPL will go down after all this wild optimism.

 

But eventually calmer minds will realize that Apple makes stuff that people love.  And APPL will go back up.

 

So I'm long.  I just can't bring myself to sell quality.  HOLDing APPL lol.


Edited by 512ke - 8/29/14 at 2:43pm
post #6 of 58
you guys sure like using "frenzy" and "fever pitch". got anything to back up your claims? simply seeing apple mentioned in the news - as it is every day over and over - does not a frenzy make. and seeing apple mentioned in the news x% more than it usually is is not "fever pitch". but, hey, we understand ... you gotta get those page views and ad impressions. whatever the cost. i suspect the only ones in a fever-pitched frenzy are you guys trying not to misspell your arcticles. and that ain't working.
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post #7 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by 512ke View Post

I know I should sell at least some of my APPL on Monday.  

The internet trolls/Business Insider/CNBC/etc will complain about WHATEVER Apple releases, and APPL will go down after all this wild optimism.

But eventually calmer minds will realize that Apple makes stuff that people love.  And APPL will go back up.

So I'm long.  I just can't bring myself to sell quality.  HOLDing APPL lol.


Yup. But sell Monday, and buy back cheap on Wednesday.

I've been long since 2004, but still haven't had the balls though.
post #8 of 58
Apples market cap is affected by their own buyout program? Right? Had they not bought back their own shares they'd be higher?
post #9 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by daveinpublic View Post

Apples market cap is affected by their own buyout program? Right? Had they not bought back their own shares they'd be higher?

 

There's no telling since all we really know is where the price is today, but by reducing the number of shares it theoretically drives the price of shares up. Supply and demand.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

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post #10 of 58
And the stock will drop on 9.9 as Apple doesn't announce unicorns and fairies and a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.
post #11 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by jasonfj View Post


Yup. But sell Monday, and buy back cheap on Wednesday.

I've been long since 2004, but still haven't had the balls though.

 

Jason, I also don't have the stones to sell on Monday.

 

I'll just let it ride....

post #12 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by daveinpublic View Post

Apples market cap is affected by their own buyout program? Right? Had they not bought back their own shares they'd be higher?

There's no telling since all we really know is where the price is today, but by reducing the number of shares it theoretically drives the price of shares up. Supply and demand.

No, it does not. If your argument were true, the optimal strategy for all companies would be to buy out all the shares they can all the time with all the cash they have.
post #13 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

No, it does not. If your argument were true, the optimal strategy for all companies would be to buy out all the shares they can all the time with all the cash they have.
Wrong. Apple is in an unusual position. It's stock is extremely undervalued and it has a ton of cash, with more being generated by the minute. Buying back its own stock is tantamount to investing in itself. The result is to decrease the share count, which increases the potential dividend return of the remaining shares.

Very, very few companies are ever in a position to pull this off.

Edit: There is also the tax issue. When Apple cuts a dividend check, taxes become applicable on the dividend. When it buys back its own shares, there is no tax.
Edited by Sacto Joe - 8/29/14 at 5:14pm
post #14 of 58
If you've been paying attention the last few years, apple stock has not taken a precipitous dive after a major announcement. I don't expect it to this year, either.

I'm up 40% on my last purchase. It's freakin' awesome!
post #15 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eriamjh View Post

If you've been paying attention the last few years, apple stock has not taken a precipitous dive after a major announcement. I don't expect it to this year, either.

I'm up 40% on my last purchase. It's freakin' awesome!

 

It is pretty awesome, isn't it? My last purchase is up 730+% so far. 2008 was a very good year to go all in.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #16 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sacto Joe View Post


Wrong. Apple is in an unusual position. It's stock is extremely undervalued and it has a ton of cash, with more being generated by the minute. Buying back its own stock is tantamount to investing in itself. The result is to decrease the share count, which increases the potential dividend return of the remaining shares.

Very, very few companies are ever in a position to pull this off.

Edit: There is also the tax issue. When Apple cuts a dividend check, taxes become applicable on the dividend. When it buys back its own shares, there is no tax.

 

Nice to see you post here, SJ. I usually see your posts on the PED boards over at Forbes.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #17 of 58
So much for the theory of 'big numbers' that some were claiming would prevent Apple getting past 700 a while back. I guess a stock split solved their problem? 1oyvey.gif
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post #18 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

And the stock will drop on 9.9 as Apple doesn't announce unicorns and fairies and a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

Of course.
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Long on AAPL so biased
"Google doesn't sell you anything, they just sell you!"
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From Apple ][ - to new Mac Pro I've used them all.
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"Google doesn't sell you anything, they just sell you!"
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post #19 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

It is pretty awesome, isn't it? My last purchase is up 730+% so far. 2008 was a very good year to go all in.

I guess my initial purchase now at a 2233.33% gain isn't too shabby either 1smile.gif
From Apple ][ - to new Mac Pro I've used them all.
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"Google doesn't sell you anything, they just sell you!"
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post #20 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

Nice to see you post here, SJ. I usually see your posts on the PED boards over at Forbes.
Thanks, SS. Been posting here since '10, though rarely (500 posts or so total).
post #21 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sacto Joe View Post

Wrong. Apple is in an unusual position. It's stock is extremely undervalued and it has a ton of cash, with more being generated by the minute. Buying back its own stock is tantamount to investing in itself. The result is to decrease the share count, which increases the potential dividend return of the remaining shares.

Very, very few companies are ever in a position to pull this off.

Edit: There is also the tax issue. When Apple cuts a dividend check, taxes become applicable on the dividend. When it buys back its own shares, there is no tax.

You may wish to reread his post a couple of more times to try and understand it. Especially the "theoretically" and "supply and demand" parts.

As an aside, and just so that you are 'theoretically' consistent, I assume you were a fan of iCahn's arrogant assault on Apple, where he went after Apple to not only use up all its cash, but even borrow money, to fund its buybacks?

(Buybacks are obviously more tax-efficient, but taxes are irrelevant to this discussion).
post #22 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by 512ke View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by jasonfj View Post

Yup. But sell Monday, and buy back cheap on Wednesday.


I've been long since 2004, but still haven't had the balls though.

Jason, I also don't have the stones to sell on Monday.

I'll just let it ride....

I'm not selling. Institutional investment has been on the rise. I'm hopeful we will see a lite more stability than we did in the past. If it drops I will just add to my position. Dividend reinvestment on the AAPL in my 401k has been freaking awesome, let alone the stocks raw performance.
post #23 of 58
I just made my first investment in the stock market about three weeks ago. (My only other experience was with mutual funds for my retirement account).

I used as much of our savings (as my wife would let me) to buy APPL stock (and nothing else). It's gained me 7.18% in those three weeks. That's awesome...what I expected!

I want to stick it out long term but I get the feeling that I should sell near the event and buy back later. It's hard to know what to do because I want to simultaneously cash in on the gains but I don't want to give up on the huge long term potential that I think is possible in Apple's upcoming products.

It's interesting how different people's opinions on Apple's future can be. I think they are very unique. I love their products.
Edited by iRun262 - 8/29/14 at 7:27pm
post #24 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by iRun262 View Post

I just made my first investment in the stock market about three weeks ago. (My only other experience was with mutual funds for my retirement account).

I used as much of our savings (as my wife would let me) to buy APPL stock (and nothing else). It's gained me 7.18% in those three weeks. That's awesome...what I expected!

I want to stick it out long term but I get the feeling that I should sell near the event and buy back later. It's hard to know what to do because I want to simultaneously cash in on the gains but I don't want to give up on the huge long term potential that I think is possible in Apple's upcoming products.

It's interesting how different people's opinions on Apple's future can be. I think they are very unique. I love their products.

It is far from my place to try and give you any investment advice whatsoever, but you should perhaps think about the tax and transaction cost implications of getting in and out (and hoping to get back in) so quickly.
post #25 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

It is far from my place to try and give you any investment advice whatsoever, but you should perhaps think about the tax and transaction cost implications of getting in and out (and hoping to get back in) so quickly.

Absolutely right.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #26 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

It is far from my place to try and give you any investment advice whatsoever, but you should perhaps think about the tax and transaction cost implications of getting in and out (and hoping to get back in) so quickly.

 

There are obviously tax implications for a stock held short term vs longer than a year, but I don't think that the transaction cost is anything to worry about. The fee is pretty cheap at most discount brokers. I pay only $7 per trade on Scottrade, and even if you trade many times per day, that's peanuts.

 

Unless somebody's portfolio consists of only 10 shares of Apple, then the transaction fee is not really a big deal when making trades.

post #27 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


You may wish to reread his post a couple of more times to try and understand it. Especially the "theoretically" and "supply and demand" parts.

As an aside, and just so that you are 'theoretically' consistent, I assume you were a fan of iCahn's arrogant assault on Apple, where he went after Apple to not only use up all its cash, but even borrow money, to fund its buybacks?

(Buybacks are obviously more tax-efficient, but taxes are irrelevant to this discussion).

 

Nothing wrong with borrowing money to fund a buyback. Apple pays a little over 2% per share in the form of a dividend. If it cost Apple 3% in interest to borrow the money, then the actual cost is about 1% to borrow the money for the buyback. But all 3% of the interest is tax deductible. I can see Apple making money on their buyback, even if AAPL don't go above the buyback price. Better than using money they have overseas. There, they would have to pay the 35% corporate tax (minus any foreign tax already paid) if they use it to buyback shares of AAPL.

post #28 of 58
Every time I have tried to predict the market with aapl I get it wrong. Once I sold my stock at 30 expecting the usual drop after earnings release. Apples earnings beat the market and finally convinced them that the iPod was the real thing. The stock jumped up and did dip for over 6 months. I finally bought back in at 70. I'm still up nearly 11 fold but would nave been 25 fold up if I hadn't of sold.
post #29 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

I guess my initial purchase now at a 2233.33% gain isn't too shabby either 1smile.gif

It is not at all shabby. 😎

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #30 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

It is not at all shabby. 😎

Hehe ... wish I had bought all then, I added much more later.

By the way, my gut still tells me iWatch is a name for a technology not one product. The 'watch' part being a verb not a noun. I just don't see Apple spending all this time and effort on one bracelet gizmo. I suspect iWatch is a massive end to end technology with SDKs coming soon that will fulfill a dream of Steve's. I also suspect in ten years this will be the largest revenue earning part of Apple's vast and expanding portfolio of products.
From Apple ][ - to new Mac Pro I've used them all.
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"Google doesn't sell you anything, they just sell you!"
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Long on AAPL so biased
"Google doesn't sell you anything, they just sell you!"
Reply
post #31 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

my gut still tells me iWatch is a name for a technology not one product. The 'watch' part being a verb not a noun. I just don't see Apple spending all this time and effort on one bracelet gizmo. I suspect iWatch is a massive end to end technology with SDKs coming soon that will fulfill a dream of Steve's. I also suspect in ten years this will be the largest revenue earning part of Apple's vast and expanding portfolio of products.

They've made trademark applications so there's at least some assurance they are going to use that term:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/apple/10808222/Apple-iWatch-Swatch-objects-to-trademark.html

Watch as in observe rather than wristwatch is an interesting idea but I don't think the word would be the best choice to cover a technology meant to encompass all sorts of wearables. That SDK would more likely be Healthkit.

Between the sapphire, Jony Ive's mention of new materials, Tim's mention of a new category and the wrist being interesting and Samsung making a watch out of nowhere (they are parts suppliers for Apple), the patents on wrist wearables, there's quite a lot of evidence pointing to them just making a watch.

I don't think it will take over the iPhone in terms of profitability.
post #32 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sacto Joe View Post

Wrong. Apple is in an unusual position. It's stock is extremely undervalued and it has a ton of cash, with more being generated by the minute. Buying back its own stock is tantamount to investing in itself. The result is to decrease the share count, which increases the potential dividend return of the remaining shares.

Very, very few companies are ever in a position to pull this off.

Edit: There is also the tax issue. When Apple cuts a dividend check, taxes become applicable on the dividend. When it buys back its own shares, there is no tax.

Echoing SpamSandwich here - nice to see ya here at AI!

A welcome balance to the Pro-Trolls* and their fetish for Provocation-Posts in recent months.

* No need to name names... you know who you are.
Knowing what you are talking about would help you understand why you are so wrong. By "Realistic" - AI Forum Member
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post #33 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marvin View Post

They've made trademark applications so there's at least some assurance they are going to use that term:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/apple/10808222/Apple-iWatch-Swatch-objects-to-trademark.html

Regardless of the Swatch objections, Apple was granted the TM... maybe because it doesn't infringe on Swatch's territory?
Quote:
Watch as in observe rather than wristwatch is an interesting idea but I don't think the word would be the best choice to cover a technology meant to encompass all sorts of wearables. That SDK would more likely be Healthkit.

If HealthKit is the only thing "iWatch" is. How do you wrap CarPlay, HomeKit, PayKit, HealthKit, TouchID into ONE category? What would you name that?
Quote:
Between the sapphire, Jony Ive's mention of new materials,

Could be any material to create the iWatch "chip sets"... or to attach to other wearable items and accessories.
Quote:
Tim's mention of a new category and the wrist being interesting

Yup... new category... and "wrist being interesting" in the same southern tone as, "well that's nice". Could it be sarcasm?
Quote:
and Samsung making a watch out of nowhere (they are parts suppliers for Apple),

See Relic's post from a couple of days ago. Samsung has been making watches for ages. The return to "let's make it smart" idea actually may have come from Google meetings or seeing Pebble and saying, "we can do that"... for all we know.
Quote:
the patents on wrist wearables,

Most surely the device that Apple makes... but it will be a drop in the bucket and certainly not be the device that takes over iPhones or iPads. The enabling chip set though is a whole 'nother ball game.
Quote:
there's quite a lot of evidence pointing to them just making a watch.

And there's a whole lot of evidence from their recent hires that there doing something with fashion in mind. I don't think it's just for new iOS covers to be honest.
Quote:
I don't think it will take over the iPhone in terms of profitability.

The "thing" or iWatch you and a number of others are envisioning? I don't either. It's possibly just an enabler device to show what the potential of iWatch really is worth as an eco-system. The money and profits will still come from iOS devices and Macs, because the eco-sytem will be exclusive to Apple. and you'll need something, like an App Center" to control the iWatch sensors.

I wrote earlier today a reply post to digitalclips if you care to take a look. I have some wild ideas, I know... but I bet some of them are on the mark. I would like to see what you think about the points I made. Curiousity 1smile.gif

I'm in with digitalclips' main idea: this isn't only about a silly watch or modern smart-timepiece. Apple thinks too big for such a trinket to be worth their while, and have too many brainiacs to let something like that even get traction within the company. For the exact same reasons as many have rightly criticized here and across the web, and why "the other guys" are failing so badly with their initiatives.

Google actually comes closest to what this "new game in town" is all about with Android Wear. Flawed execution doesn't make taking a closer look at what they're aiming at a bit eye-opening.
Knowing what you are talking about would help you understand why you are so wrong. By "Realistic" - AI Forum Member
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post #34 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by DavidW View Post


Nothing wrong with borrowing money to fund a buyback. Apple pays a little over 2% per share in the form of a dividend. If it cost Apple 3% in interest to borrow the money, then the actual cost is about 1% to borrow the money for the buyback. But all 3% of the interest is tax deductible. I can see Apple making money on their buyback, even if AAPL don't go above the buyback price. Better than using money they have overseas. There, they would have to pay the 35% corporate tax (minus any foreign tax already paid) if they use it to buyback shares of AAPL.

Nothing wrong at all with financing a repurchase with a reasonable amount of debt (as, indeed, Apple has done). My question was different: whether that would mean, taken to the extreme, that iCahn's aggressive $150B repurchase proposal -- which Apple rejected -- made sense (to the person to whom I was asking the question).

My larger point, in the original reply to SS's post -- about which some people (not SS!) seemed to get super thin-skinned -- was really that such financial decisions area a matter of balance. And that there are pros and cons to the company wandering off too much in one direction or the other.

(Add).
Edited by anantksundaram - 8/30/14 at 6:44am
post #35 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post


There are obviously tax implications for a stock held short term vs longer than a year, but I don't think that the transaction cost is anything to worry about. The fee is pretty cheap at most discount brokers. I pay only $7 per trade on Scottrade, and even if you trade many times per day, that's peanuts.

Unless somebody's portfolio consists of only 10 shares of Apple, then the transaction fee is not really a big deal when making trades.

He did not say how many he bought. If he's going to be buying, then selling, and then buying again every few weeks, the transaction costs will pile up, and the returns will be lower. Not as much as with having to pay taxes.
post #36 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pooch View Post

you guys sure like using "frenzy" and "fever pitch". got anything to back up your claims? simply seeing apple mentioned in the news - as it is every day over and over - 

 

The stock price has gone up considerably recently, not based on immediate financials, but based on speculation that Apple will have even more astronomical sales at some point in the future.  Even so 'frenzy' is probably a strong word for the buying currently going on.  The challenge, as always, is going to be for Apple's actual performance to match valuation based on future expectations.

post #37 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eriamjh View Post

If you've been paying attention the last few years, apple stock has not taken a precipitous dive after a major announcement. I don't expect it to this year, either.

I'm up 40% on my last purchase. It's freakin' awesome!

I guess you were asleep in January and June 2013, I bought before each Quarterly announcement thinking good numbers would mean good returns, but NO Wall Street decided to beat them up. It wasn't until September 2013 that they started to show positive.

I'm also long, my initial $13 shares (current cost basis $0.46) makes my portfolio very over weight, but I still bought several hundred more shares 8/8 and it's already up over 8%. Where will it be by the 9th??

Yes there are tax consequences selling short term in a regular brokerage account but I'm building a retirement IRA account so taxes on dividends and short term capital gains do not come into the picture. So working on a decent retirement pension based on dividends also been slowly rolling over Traditional to Roth so withdrawals are tax free.
Edited by KennMSr - 8/30/14 at 10:00am
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post #38 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by GadgetCanadaV2 View Post
 

Where are all the Android trolls from last year predicting Apple is sliding into the toilet?

 

Oh they’re still out there. Most of ‘em got blocked here on AI so they don’t think it’s worth it anymore, but c|net, MacRumors, MarketWatch, etc. are infested with them. “Only stupid people buy Apple products” is still the mantra but they have changed their doomsday meme from “tomorrow” to “any day now.” The more AAPL gains the stupider people get seems to be their mindset these days.

post #39 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post


Oh they’re still out there. Most of ‘em got blocked here on AI so they don’t think it’s worth it anymore, but c|net, MacRumors, MarketWatch, etc. are infested with them. “Only stupid people buy Apple products” is still the mantra ....

LOL. Spot on. A lot of them have also migrated to the tech sections of NYT and WSJ. The latter is particularly infested.
post #40 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by iRun262 View Post

I just made my first investment in the stock market about three weeks ago. (My only other experience was with mutual funds for my retirement account).

I used as much of our savings (as my wife would let me) to buy APPL stock (and nothing else). It's gained me 7.18% in those three weeks. That's awesome...what I expected!

I want to stick it out long term but I get the feeling that I should sell near the event and buy back later. It's hard to know what to do because I want to simultaneously cash in on the gains but I don't want to give up on the huge long term potential that I think is possible in Apple's upcoming products.

It's interesting how different people's opinions on Apple's future can be. I think they are very unique. I love their products.

If the shares are in your retirement account just sell what you borrowed, make the wife happy, and keep the 8-15% gain as an FREE AAPL nest egg and let it slowly appreciate with dividends. If it's like my case I borrowed from my IRA mutual funds (have 60 days to return amount with out charges) will make the short term gains w/o tax consequences repay the fund what was borrowed and invest gains in 4% + funds or equities or just leave it as a cash reserve for the next market pull back.
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