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Apple's 'fab fall' predicted to help drive company's stock price to $123 per share

post #1 of 20
Thread Starter 
Ahead of Apple's Sept. 9 event, where it is expected to unveil two new iPhones and offer a sneak-peek at a new wearable device, financial firm Cantor Fitzgerald has given a strong endorsement to investors, saying the next few months could prove to be Apple's most exciting period in many years.

Alleged 4.7-inch and 5.5-inch iPhone 6 mockups with iPhone 5s. | Source: TechSmartt via YouTube


Analyst Brian White said in a new research note issued on Tuesday that Apple's "fab fall" will begin next week, when the company has scheduled a Tuesday event to show off new products. Chief among those is expected to be the "iPhone 6," which is heavily rumored to come in screen sizes of 4.7 and 5.5 inches.

White has particularly high hopes for the larger 5.5-inch "phablet" model, which he believes will help Apple gain market share in the growing Chinese market. In his note, a copy of which was provided to AppleInsider, the analyst revealed that his contacts in the Far East have suggested the 5.5-inch model could launch later than the 4.7-inch variant, though he doesn't expect any gaps to have a significant effect on Apple's bottom line.

As for the so-called "iWatch," White believes that it will be introduced next week but might not be available until a later date, echoing recent rumors. Apple had a five-month lead time between the announcement of the first iPhone and its launch in June of 2007, while the first iPad went on sale just over two months after it was unveiled.

"iWatch" concept by Martin Hajek.


If the "iWatch" isn't immediately available, White won't be concerned, as he sees an opportunity for the company to build momentum heading toward a launch soon after.

"In our view, this allows Apple to create a tremendous amount of free marketing buzz ahead of availability and the lag does not eat into existing sales," he said. "That said, we believe Apple would be wise to have the 'iWatch' ready for holiday purchases in December."

White's price target of $123 is one of the most bullish outlooks for the company on Wall Street, though other analysts have been trending higher as shares of AAPL have risen to record highs. Earlier Tuesday, Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray hiked up his own target to $120, citing Apple's growing presence in consumer electronics with home and health functions included in iOS 8, and anticipated mobile payment functionality rumored to be a part of the "iPhone 6."
post #2 of 20
Here we go, analysts setting Apple up for a 'fail'. They set the bar so high it's stupid really. Watch Apple stock drop; instead of going up after Sept 9th..
post #3 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by Adrayven View Post

Here we go, analysts setting Apple up for a 'fail'. They set the bar so high it's stupid really. Watch Apple stock drop; instead of going up after Sept 9th..

Well...this might be better than claiming some crazy number (80-90 m sold, etc)

 

The price target of 118-125 sounds reasonable with the products coming up

post #4 of 20

My only ask is that nobody ever utter or type "fab fall" again. Thanks

post #5 of 20
So we have a larger iPhone and a watch that the market is not demanding - and this is a fab fall?
Here's to hoping for more than just that.
 
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post #6 of 20

Analysts are great at telling you the sky is falling, or the stock is going to explode, but the one thing they can never ever predict, is what is actually going to happen.

post #7 of 20
I sure hope this is an exclusive. We don't want Brian White spreading his wisdom too far afield. He likes us, he really likes us!

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #8 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by Phone-UI-Guy View Post
 

My only ask is that nobody ever utter or type "fab fall" again. Thanks


Apple may be 'fab'ricating their new products like crazy this fall, but I never ever want to hear 'fab fall' again either.

post #9 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by stevenoz View Post


Apple may be 'fab'ricating their new products like crazy this fall, but I never ever want to hear 'fab fall' again either.

That would be 'fabtastic'.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #10 of 20

I don't know about this... much as I'd like (and hope) for it to get to $123, at the consensus forecasted 2015 earnings of $7/share, that's a forward PE ratio of 17.5x. For a company as large as Apple, and the correspondingly large product home runs it needs to move the needle, that could be a tad difficult.



It's like analysts are starting to chase momentum all over again, shades of when Apple was at $700, from a couple of years ago (I recall one analyst then predicting $1111, or $159 split-adjusted).

post #11 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

I don't know about this... much as I'd like (and hope) for it to get to $123, at the consensus forecasted 2015 earnings of $7/share, that's a forward PE ratio of 17.5x. For a company as large as Apple, and the correspondingly large product home runs it needs to move the needle, that could be a tad difficult.



 



It's like analysts are starting to chase momentum all over again, shades of when Apple was at $700, from a couple of years ago (I recall one analyst then predicting $1111, or $159 split-adjusted).


I could see $110 or that range by the end of the year. $120+ is definitely pushing it.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

Reply

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

Reply
post #12 of 20

Maybe the biggest jolt will come from removing the "Tim can't innovate" from the street's mindset. That's why they need that iWatch. Or some other new product category that no one guessed. Doesn't even have to move the needle. It's about the perception that since Jobs died, Apple hasn't invented anything new and exciting.

 

As far as iWatch demand, my son wants one in the worst way and hey, if it's pretty cool, I might suddenly find a need for one too.

post #13 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

I don't know about this... much as I'd like (and hope) for it to get to $123, at the consensus forecasted 2015 earnings of $7/share, that's a forward PE ratio of 17.5x. For a company as large as Apple, and the correspondingly large product home runs it needs to move the needle, that could be a tad difficult.



It's like analysts are starting to chase momentum all over again, shades of when Apple was at $700, from a couple of years ago (I recall one analyst then predicting $1111, or $159 split-adjusted).


I am not greedy ... I would settle for $142.86 for now, a nice round $1,000 pre split.

Next year it can go to $200 + ... 1biggrin.gif
Edited by digitalclips - 9/2/14 at 11:45am
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From Apple ][ - to new Mac Pro I've used them all.
Long on AAPL so biased
"Google doesn't sell you anything, they just sell you!"
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post #14 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by bugsnw View Post

Maybe the biggest jolt will come from removing the "Tim can't innovate" from the street's mindset. That's why they need that iWatch. Or some other new product category that no one guessed. Doesn't even have to move the needle. It's about the perception that since Jobs died, Apple hasn't invented anything new and exciting.

As far as iWatch demand, my son wants one in the worst way and hey, if it's pretty cool, I might suddenly find a need for one too.

Not disagreeing with you about Tim and perception but for all we know the Apple teams may have many Steve innovations up their sleeves and under development or simply waiting till technology reaches the point were are some are even feasible. I maybe totally wrong but I really suspect Steve left Tim with a thick portfolio of projects, enough for the next decade or maybe two.
From Apple ][ - to new Mac Pro I've used them all.
Long on AAPL so biased
"Google doesn't sell you anything, they just sell you!"
Reply
From Apple ][ - to new Mac Pro I've used them all.
Long on AAPL so biased
"Google doesn't sell you anything, they just sell you!"
Reply
post #15 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by bugsnw View Post

Maybe the biggest jolt will come from removing the "Tim can't innovate" from the street's mindset.
That attitude comes from bias and nothing else! Objectively there has not been enough time for Apple to develope a "new" category.
Quote:

That's why they need that iWatch. Or some other new product category that no one guessed. Doesn't even have to move the needle. It's about the perception that since Jobs died, Apple hasn't invented anything new and exciting.
Again this is a case of people only seeing what they want to see. As such there isn't much that Apple can deliver that will change minds. They could deliver a robot with a completely functional AI and people would say Apple can't innovate.

Reality is very different though as Apple has been on a tear of recent times, delivering stuff few companies can. Like it or not the "A" series processor is just one example of Apple being on the bleeding edge of design. IOS is another example where the OS has evolved significantly in the past couple of years with very significant innovation taking place.
Quote:

As far as iWatch demand, my son wants one in the worst way and hey, if it's pretty cool, I might suddenly find a need for one too.
Honestly I don't see the demand that many are seeing, At least not for the first device revealed. That is if it is even a worst worn "watch". The problem is iPhone is a sustainable industry, an iWatch could very much be a fad that burns out quickly. To expect the same impact on Apple that iPhone had is silly in my estimation.

The worst part about iWatch is that it could be a very successful product for any company in the world except for Apple. The expectations are just so high im not sure Apple will even come close to the sales numbers expected. Then we will be subjected to endless commentary on how iWatch failed even though rationally it is a good product. Sort of like the crap we heard about iPhone 5c even though that phone is an excellent seller.
post #16 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by bugsnw View Post

Maybe the biggest jolt will come from removing the "Tim can't innovate" from the street's mindset.
That attitude comes from bias and nothing else! Objectively there has not been enough time for Apple to develope a "new" category.
Quote:

That's why they need that iWatch. Or some other new product category that no one guessed. Doesn't even have to move the needle. It's about the perception that since Jobs died, Apple hasn't invented anything new and exciting.
Again this is a case of people only seeing what they want to see. As such there isn't much that Apple can deliver that will change minds. They could deliver a robot with a completely functional AI and people would say Apple can't innovate.

Reality is very different though as Apple has been on a tear of recent times, delivering stuff few companies can. Like it or not the "A" series processor is just one example of Apple being on the bleeding edge of design. IOS is another example where the OS has evolved significantly in the past couple of years with very significant innovation taking place.
Quote:

As far as iWatch demand, my son wants one in the worst way and hey, if it's pretty cool, I might suddenly find a need for one too.
Honestly I don't see the demand that many are seeing, At least not for the first device revealed. That is if it is even a worst worn "watch". The problem is iPhone is a sustainable industry, an iWatch could very much be a fad that burns out quickly. To expect the same impact on Apple that iPhone had is silly in my estimation.

The worst part about iWatch is that it could be a very successful product for any company in the world except for Apple. The expectations are just so high im not sure Apple will even come close to the sales numbers expected. Then we will be subjected to endless commentary on how iWatch failed even though rationally it is a good product. Sort of like the crap we heard about iPhone 5c even though that phone is an excellent seller.

 

I am not sure about demand for a smart watch that is some gimmicky extension of your phone is. What I see is people wanting to participate in the quantified self movement for their own health related goals. The lingering demand is more akin to a smart band that meets peoples needs that they don't know they have. They want to be healthier, but don't know what such a device must do well to make their goals easier to evaluate and hopefully achieve. Who wants to drop lots of money on smart watch from a company selling specs and gimmicks? Only the die hard geeks are doing that right now. If Apple moves into this space and offers a well thought through product it will be met with eager buyers. 

 

The iPhone getting a little bigger will certainly help as it will pull more people to Apple's products as well as driving a strong upgrade cycle from existing iPhone users.

 

Anything on the payments side is gravy if Apple even intends to monazite being part of the payment infrastructure. Just having your iPhone double as and existing NFC capable card would make it work everywhere payments are accepted. To me the problem with using the phone for payments would be not being able to use my credit card directly.  I would much rather use my iPhone and have it go through as using my card directly and not an iTunes type pass through. But we will see on that one.

 

As a cable cutter, I'm still hopeful that they can workout some content deals to sell me a streaming service with channels. Breaking the cable, sat, and other paradigms would be huge.

 

I am looking forward to the 9th and hope they will stream the presentation real-time, but we will see.

post #17 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by Phone-UI-Guy View Post
 

My only ask is that nobody ever utter or type "fab fall" again. Thanks

 

I promise to never type "fab fall" again, unless I forget.

"If the young are not initiated into the village, they will burn it down just to feel its warmth."
- African proverb
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"If the young are not initiated into the village, they will burn it down just to feel its warmth."
- African proverb
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post #18 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post
 

I don't know about this... much as I'd like (and hope) for it to get to $123, at the consensus forecasted 2015 earnings of $7/share, that's a forward PE ratio of 17.5x. For a company as large as Apple, and the correspondingly large product home runs it needs to move the needle, that could be a tad difficult.

 

It's like analysts are starting to chase momentum all over again, shades of when Apple was at $700, from a couple of years ago (I recall one analyst then predicting $1111, or $159 split-adjusted).

 

I see no problem with Apple reaching $1,111. Probably not by next year, though.

"If the young are not initiated into the village, they will burn it down just to feel its warmth."
- African proverb
Reply
"If the young are not initiated into the village, they will burn it down just to feel its warmth."
- African proverb
Reply
post #19 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by Phone-UI-Guy View Post
 

My only ask is that nobody ever utter or type "fab fall" again. Thanks

 

"Fab Fall" is the perfect Analyst phrase. An analyst can never fail or be wrong when he says 'Fab Fall' with reference to Apple.

 

Scenario 01: Apple blows everyone away with its Fall line-up and Wall Street and analysts are happy - it is a fabulous Fall.

 

Scenario 02: Apple does not deliver every single overblown, over-the-top analyst expectation/ prediction - the stock free falls, it is a fabulous (free) fall.

 

Scenario 03: There is no Scenario 03!

post #20 of 20
F.A.B. Scott
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