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Why George W. Bush will be easily re-elected in 2004

post #1 of 106
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Quote:
WASHINGTON -- Last year three African-Americans running statewide for offices in the same state were all elected, something that has never happened before in any state, even during Reconstruction. The African-Americans are Democrats, and the state is one of those proudly, reliably liberal ones -- Massachusetts, perhaps, or California, right?

Wrong. The state was Texas, and all three winners are Republicans. Their successes suggest how Republicans might make modest progress with African-American voters. Modest progress -- say, 15 percent rather than 8 percent of the African-American vote -- could have large effects.

George Will

Democrats are about to have one of their most loyal voting blocks begin to crack. When this happens, it will be all over.

Nick

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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post #2 of 106
Oh God, no.

An extremely right-wing religious fundamentalist with an actual mandate to be the most powerful man in the world.

I can't think of anything more frightening.
post #3 of 106
i would say no way in hell......but the democrats seem to be wallowing in their own inertia.
post #4 of 106
I guess it's time to break out the WOMD.
post #5 of 106
good god i hope not.
post #6 of 106
"Hearing a corrupt CEO like Cheney denigrate Edwards for being a trial lawyer is like hearing a child molester complain how Larry Flint is a pervert." -johnq
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"Hearing a corrupt CEO like Cheney denigrate Edwards for being a trial lawyer is like hearing a child molester complain how Larry Flint is a pervert." -johnq
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post #7 of 106
"You want a piece of this?" -Jon Stewart
post #8 of 106
Anybody see the Daily Show's foreign policy 'debate' between Governor George W Bush and President George W Bush? They used footage of Bush from the last three years to show how he has gone 180 degrees on foreign policy, use of US troops and 'nation building.' He was even somewhat likable as Governor.
post #9 of 106
Quote:
Originally posted by kneelbeforezod
Anybody see the Daily Show's foreign policy 'debate' between Governor George W Bush and President George W Bush? They used footage of Bush from the last three years to show how he has gone 180 degrees on foreign policy, use of US troops and 'nation building.' He was even somewhat likable as Governor.

Heh. I'm waiting on some republican challenger who'll say something like "I thought Bush was a republican! Nation building? Steel tariffs? Massive spending? New government offices and cabinet positions? No apparent domestic policy other than "tax cuts"? Two foreign conflicts?"

Will he be re-elected? Most likely. The democrats make me sick these days, and all I can figure is that their long-term strategy is to give the Bush admin EVERYTHING IT WANTS ON A SILVER FRIGGIN' PLATTER.
Gangs are not seen as legitimate, because they don't have control over public schools.
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Gangs are not seen as legitimate, because they don't have control over public schools.
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post #10 of 106
He'll be reelected because he is well liked personally moreso than because of the popularity of his policies. I doubt that we'll see much of a shift in the African American vote from historical trends.
post #11 of 106
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally posted by kneelbeforezod
Anybody see the Daily Show's foreign policy 'debate' between Governor George W Bush and President George W Bush? They used footage of Bush from the last three years to show how he has gone 180 degrees on foreign policy, use of US troops and 'nation building.' He was even somewhat likable as Governor.

Yeah, well a few planes crashing into building will do that you know.

Nick

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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post #12 of 106
Quote:
Originally posted by ColanderOfDeath
He'll be reelected because he is well liked personally moreso than because of the popularity of his policies. I doubt that we'll see much of a shift in the African American vote from historical trends.

While I agree with you (if I had a dollar for every time I've heard someone make some claim about "liking" Bush), I've always found this to be the most absurd notion I've ever heard. I mean, how the hell can ANYONE know whether or not they'd like this guy???
Gangs are not seen as legitimate, because they don't have control over public schools.
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Gangs are not seen as legitimate, because they don't have control over public schools.
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post #13 of 106
And yet there it is. Opinion polls have always held that he was more popular as a person than his policies ever were, by an appreciable margin for a national politician.
post #14 of 106
There will be no easy election either way in 2004. The country right now is pretty much 45% Democrats and 45% Republicans, with a few percent in the middle who will vote for a third party and a couple thousand people in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Michigan who will determine the next president.

Democrats already have 100 or so electoral votes wrapped up with NY and CA and the northeast without lifting a finger, and Republicans already have about the same from the Bible belt and the West.
post #15 of 106
No way he'll be re-elected.
Oh, and here's that Bush versus Bush video.
post #16 of 106
"It's the economy, stupid!"
"Oh boy, sleep! That's where I'm a viking!"
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post #17 of 106
Quote:
Originally posted by Existence
No way he'll be relected.

Oh, and here's that Bush versus Bush video.

That is one stunning piece of video. I would plea that man is allowed to change his mind, but of course, if you become the president, and revoke all that you've said that got you elected, you're seriously misleading, abusing, millions. Stunning. No less.
post #18 of 106
BTW: when are the elections coming up? Is it this year or next year?
post #19 of 106
Quote:
Originally posted by der Kopf
BTW: when are the elections coming up? Is it this year or next year?

its next year... primaries begin this year (the system that supposedly leads to the nomination of a canidate well liked by most of either party, respectively)...
post #20 of 106
I don't care about party politics too much, up here in Canada ours is even more confusing, if rather inconsequential.

However, demographics are interesting.

Could it be that blacks are finally figuring out that democrats don't give a damn about them either? While at the same time, Republicans are figuring out that nothing is better than "me too" when it comes to politicking, and "issues" are secondary whenever you can employ the same puerile fantasy of representation that has worked so well for democrats in minority circles?

Or it could be that blacks have more money than democrat tear jerker politicos would have you believe and they'd like to keep some of it too?
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post #21 of 106
i think this is obvious... although it hasnt been said... blacks did not elect these republicans, it is a shameful and somewhat sad assumption that they did... white republicans elected these black republicans to office...

in my home town there is a black police chief, the city is in the southeast and is mostly white, though the black population is significant, ie 40% if not higher... why did this man get elected? because both the whites and the blacks voted for the democrat in a strongly democratic city...

its complete bullshit that if you have black republican politicians that it follows exactly that black voters elected them... i would not vote for a white person if i agreed more strongly with say an indian, why should that be true of blacks...

this is just george will (and other republicans) spouting the demise of the two party system, because god knows that everything would be better if everyone agreed on everything...
post #22 of 106
I think we should all reword our wording so that we do not confuse our international friends.
Bush wasn't elected in the first place so "re-elected" is somehwhat of a misnomer. A more aptly worded question would be "Will Bush get a second term?"

Remember friends, the only people he was elected by was with a majority in the 5-4 Supreme Court decision.
post #23 of 106
Quote:
Originally posted by Existence
I think we should all reword our wording so that we do not confuse our international friends.
Bush wasn't elected in the first place so "re-elected" is somehwhat of a misnomer. A more aptly worded question would be "Will Bush get a second term?"

Remember friends, the only people he was elected by was with a majority in the 5-4 Supreme Court decision.

Closest. "Election." Ever!
post #24 of 106
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally posted by Existence
I think we should all reword our wording so that we do not confuse our international friends.
Bush wasn't elected in the first place so "re-elected" is somehwhat of a misnomer. A more aptly worded question would be "Will Bush get a second term?"

Remember friends, the only people he was elected by was with a majority in the 5-4 Supreme Court decision.

7-2 decision don't you mean? The 5-4 decision was about the time frame. 7-2 decision said you cannot only count selected ballots from selected counties while selectively throwing out military ballots.

That was what doomed Gore, not the decision about how long it would take to do this recount.

Nick

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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post #25 of 106
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally posted by BRussell
There will be no easy election either way in 2004. The country right now is pretty much 45% Democrats and 45% Republicans, with a few percent in the middle who will vote for a third party and a couple thousand people in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Michigan who will determine the next president.

Democrats already have 100 or so electoral votes wrapped up with NY and CA and the northeast without lifting a finger, and Republicans already have about the same from the Bible belt and the West.

I don't know if I would pocket California just yet. It has been a Democratic lock for the last 3 elections but it was Republican for the three prior to that.

The 35 billion dollar hole in our budget has put Davis at all time lows, in fact he may be recalled.

The party in power typically suffers when things are bad while nationwide things are so-so, in California things are very bad budget-wise and the Dems hold both houses and the entire executive branch. There really is only one party to toss out.

Nick

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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post #26 of 106
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally posted by billybobsky
i think this is obvious... although it hasnt been said... blacks did not elect these republicans, it is a shameful and somewhat sad assumption that they did... white republicans elected these black republicans to office...

in my home town there is a black police chief, the city is in the southeast and is mostly white, though the black population is significant, ie 40% if not higher... why did this man get elected? because both the whites and the blacks voted for the democrat in a strongly democratic city...

its complete bullshit that if you have black republican politicians that it follows exactly that black voters elected them... i would not vote for a white person if i agreed more strongly with say an indian, why should that be true of blacks...

this is just george will (and other republicans) spouting the demise of the two party system, because god knows that everything would be better if everyone agreed on everything...

Got it, so when whites wouldn't elect blacks to office that was.... bad....

And now when white will elect blacks to office that is.... bad....

Glad to see you are so clear on that.

Nick

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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post #27 of 106
Quote:
Originally posted by trumptman

That was what doomed Gore, not the decision about how long it would take to do this recount.

Long before the Supreme Court decided Gore asked for all the counties to be counted. It's not his fault Florida law required a candidate to ask for specific counties that were problematic. Gore just asked for what the laws required him to ask.
"Hearing a corrupt CEO like Cheney denigrate Edwards for being a trial lawyer is like hearing a child molester complain how Larry Flint is a pervert." -johnq
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"Hearing a corrupt CEO like Cheney denigrate Edwards for being a trial lawyer is like hearing a child molester complain how Larry Flint is a pervert." -johnq
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post #28 of 106
Quote:
Originally posted by trumptman
Got it, so when whites wouldn't elect blacks to office that was.... bad....

And now when white will elect blacks to office that is.... bad....

Glad to see you are so clear on that.

Nick



Wait let me catch my breath.........

There! Listen nothing and I repeat nothing will matter by 2004 except the economy. If Bush's plans don't bring us out of this recession ( and even Alan Greenspan shakes his head at them ) he will be a dead duck. That's it in a nutshell. Further more it's been proven before. Don't believe me? Just keep watching. Bush knows this that's why he hasn't gone after anyone else militarily speaking. As someone else here quoted " It's the economy stupid! "
Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
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Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
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post #29 of 106
not to be argumentative about gore getting the shaft in florida, but i have a problem feeling sorry for him when he didn't even carry his own state.
nothing else would matter, nader, electoral votes, chads, distancing himself from his president, if he would have won tennessee.
post #30 of 106
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally posted by bunge
Long before the Supreme Court decided Gore asked for all the counties to be counted. It's not his fault Florida law required a candidate to ask for specific counties that were problematic. Gore just asked for what the laws required him to ask.

There was a statewide count and recount. All done my machine. Gore the requested selective counties have their "undervotes" hand recounted. Hence the "dimpled chads" and other nonsense.

Nick

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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post #31 of 106
Quote:
Originally posted by superkarate monkeydeathcar
not to be argumentative about gore getting the shaft in florida, but i have a problem feeling sorry for him when he didn't even carry his own state.
nothing else would matter, nader, electoral votes, chads, distancing himself from his president, if he would have won tennessee.

After Clinton's big mistake nothing could have saved him. I knew that before the election. You can probably blame that for Tennessee. It's to bad our values are based on appearence and public speaking ( which really don't have anything to do with the job. Under that definition Bob Barker would make a good president ). It was really close. No electoral college and he would have won.
Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
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Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
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post #32 of 106
Quote:
No electoral college and he would have won.

yes, it's weird though. you look at a map of the US on a county by county basis, and it was overwhelmingly Bush. until you got to big cities, where Gore won almost every single one.

there's a weird division between the large city folks and small town folks.

(although i guess it's not weird when you get right down to it)
post #33 of 106
He will be re-elected again because I run the universe and I will vote for him, again.
I never get tired of being right all the time... but I do get tired of having to prove it to you again and again.
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I never get tired of being right all the time... but I do get tired of having to prove it to you again and again.
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post #34 of 106
Quote:
Originally posted by superkarate monkeydeathcar
...i have a problem feeling sorry for him when he didn't even carry his own state.

He'd been living in D.C. for over 20 years. He won D.C. by a 10 to 1 margin.
"Hearing a corrupt CEO like Cheney denigrate Edwards for being a trial lawyer is like hearing a child molester complain how Larry Flint is a pervert." -johnq
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"Hearing a corrupt CEO like Cheney denigrate Edwards for being a trial lawyer is like hearing a child molester complain how Larry Flint is a pervert." -johnq
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post #35 of 106
Quote:
Originally posted by trumptman
Got it, so when whites wouldn't elect blacks to office that was.... bad....

And now when white will elect blacks to office that is.... bad....

Glad to see you are so clear on that.

Nick

where did i say bad asshole (or should i say trumpetupyourasshole?) or any of that?

the fact remains that george will's argument is flawed very very flawed...


and you are a strawman
post #36 of 106
Quote:
Originally posted by billybobsky
where did i say bad asshole (or should i say trumpetupyourasshole?)?

the fact remains that george will's argument is flawed very very flawed...


and you are a strawman

billy

grow up please. How is it you speak of an argument as being flawed yet you use rude language towards trumptman?

I think you misread the argument myself and when you don't like "how you read the issue argued" you lose all self control.

come back in 5 years when you may have matured.

Fellowship
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May the peace of the Lord be with you always

Share your smile, Have respect for others, and be loving to all peoples

Paul in Athens: Acts 17 : 16-34
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post #37 of 106
Quote:
Originally posted by FellowshipChurch iBook
billy

grow up please. How is it you speak of an argument as being flawed yet you use rude language towards trumptman?

I think you misread the argument myself and when you don't like "how you read the issue argued" you lose all self control.

come back in 5 years when you may have matured.

Fellowship

Fellows

actually no, i made no arguments one way or another in terms of whether electing people of other races is favorable or not (i actually stated quite the inverse, that one should always elect those that represent your issues best, in my example of electing an indian) so trumpetman assigned me an argument i did not make and thus he IS an asshole, particularly since its an argument i expressly did not make and one that offends my sensibilities deeply, so he hit a nerve and i responded, but at least i can admit that, but i doubt he will never admit he assigned an argument to me in a fashion that was both insulting and irrelevent...

maturity is a question of time and place, and i firmly believed it needed to be pointed out that TRUMPTMAN IS AN ASSHOLE.

billy (as it were)
post #38 of 106
Billybobsky? Where did I say blacks elected these guys? AHAHA

OK so I implied it, but is that really wrong? Look at the politics of activism. Speech is so blantantly censored when the mouths speaking it are the wrong color (in both directions, when we're dealing with white and black, add brown, yellow, and red and it gets weirder still, so let's just use black and white.) America is rife with the sentiment "We need one of our own."

So this is not restricted to who elects blacks (a conclusion you drew for yourself), but why and where blacks choose to run. Think about the candidates themselves. There must be a sufficient pool of blacks for whom it makes sense to be republican if there is a new influx of black candidates throughout the party.

For the longest time we looked at the democrats as the only party for black candidates, blacks themselves would look at any republican black as an "Uncle Tom" depending on whereabouts in the country. If there are MORE black republicans coming to the fore, it's also reasonable to think that there are more black republicans in their various districts. At least moreso than in previous years. Whites might still elect them (ie make up the majority of their votes,) but there's a lot more color in that support base than there used to be, color that sees the world in a stereotypically "whiter" way perhaps -- if we want to paint black and white into money lines.

What is interesting about all this is that you have applied a very "democrat" assumption to a logistical inquiry and then criticised me for it. Cute, but not really my fault, I merely implied that Republicans would be happy to catch some of those other kinds of racist votes, along with the idea that more blacks may like republicans (regardless of reason) than many democrats would like to admit.

[political disclaimer mode] As with most things, I am a political agnostic as well [/disclaimer mode off]
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post #39 of 106
Quote:
Originally posted by trumptman
George Will

Democrats are about to have one of their most loyal voting blocks begin to crack. When this happens, it will be all over.

Nick

Good the hear.
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post #40 of 106
Why all this fuss over whether or not Bush can get reelected?


NEWSFLASH: It doesn't matter. It really doesn't. Both parties are two sides of the same coin. They have the same goals, motivations, and interests. It truly doesn't matter who gets elected.

 

“The nitrogen in our DNA, the calcium in our teeth, the iron in our blood, the carbon in our apple pies were made in the interiors of collapsing stars. We are made of starstuff.” 
-Sagan
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“The nitrogen in our DNA, the calcium in our teeth, the iron in our blood, the carbon in our apple pies were made in the interiors of collapsing stars. We are made of starstuff.” 
-Sagan
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