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Apple is going to release G5 in MWSF

post #1 of 237
Thread Starter 
Despite many of you continue to expect Motorola to roll out G4-7457 due to recent road map leaks from Moto itself, it looks more than certain that Apple top line machines will sport PPC 970 badged as G5. It is very obvious since IBM has now confirmed 970 is Altivec compatible, and Apple is currently the only PC maker employs Altivec. Furthermore, IBM has stated that 970 will be available up to 1.8 GHZ in Q3 2002, gives us a big clue, what will happen before hand. With IBM fab capacity capable of handling sub .13 micron equipment, 970 is definitely going to be release earlier. IBM has disclosed 970 in MPF which gives them more than 3 months to ramp up the chips for PowerMac, even probably have enough quantity to preannounce DP PM. Also is very clear, if Apple chooses to use Motorola 7457, clock speed will definitely cross 1.3 GHZ perhaps 1.4 with a little bit of overclocking. With IBM clockspeed of only up to 1.8 GHZ max, giving Apple marketing a difficult task to manuever the numbering game. Also 970 is perfect right now, because it is low wattage up to 1.4 GHZ and perfect for DP. Since 970 is deep and wide, giving Apple a perfect advantage to market their pro machines. So Apple is definitely not going to use Motorola higher speed chip due to difficultly in marketing two lines of PowerPC processors. Motorola will release their 7457 anyway because PowerBook needs .13 chips to keep itself cool and 512K of L2 and more L3 will keep Apple competitve compared to Wintel world.
post #2 of 237
This time last year, AI was full of posts about the launch of G5 Powermacs. Everyone missed the bus as the only launch was the Imac FP. Even with this machine no one figured a G4 being the processor.

This year there is an eerie silence. Even I think that the 970 based machines will be launched. NO ONE IS EXPECTING THEM. That is the key
post #3 of 237
A sssssssstttttttrrrrrrrreeeeeeccccchhh. Getting decent yields of new chips is a slow and time consuming process. It ain't gonna happen. <img src="graemlins/oyvey.gif" border="0" alt="[No]" />
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post #4 of 237
[quote]Originally posted by tiramisubomb:
<strong>IBM has stated that 970 will be available up to 1.8 GHZ in Q3 2002</strong><hr></blockquote>
post #5 of 237
[quote]Originally posted by BRussell:
<strong>Originally posted by tiramisubomb:
IBM has stated that 970 will be available up to 1.8 GHZ in Q3 2002</strong><hr></blockquote>
No they didn't. They said the PPC970 would be generally available in Q3 2002 and that the PP970 would eventually scale to 1.8GHz. Nowhere have they said when high end parts would be available.
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post #6 of 237
[quote]Originally posted by tiramisubomb:
<strong>Furthermore, IBM has stated that 970 will be available up to 1.8 GHZ in Q3 2002...</strong><hr></blockquote>

Where? Give us a link.

It is eerily silent right now, no clues as to what may happen with new machines. This means one of two things:

No new machines.

Apple just got extraordinarily good at suppressing leaks.

Let's look at the known facts:

It is *very* quiet.

The last round of PowerMac speed bumps put dual processors in all desktop machines.

Most people seem to be talking about 970s being available in volume in about six months time.

Coincidentally Apple has recently stated a 9.x bootable desktop will be available for at least another six months.

There doesn't appear to be specific new system builds in development.


So, my feeling is that we're not going to see 970s in PowerMacs before MWNY. This is somewhat mitigated by Apple putting dual processors in all desktops - which has only happened as a stop-gap in the past. Though perhps this time they no they're going nowhere fast before the Autumn of 2003.

Thinking that dual processors really eat into the profit margins at Apple, the latest accounts reveal that gross margins are up, from 23% to 28%.

No 970s at MWSF 2003 - confirmed (though I would love to be wrong).
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post #7 of 237
[quote]Originally posted by tiramisubomb:
<strong>Despite many of you continue to expect Motorola to roll out G4-7457 due to recent road map leaks from Moto itself, it looks more than certain that Apple top line machines will sport PPC 970 badged as G5. It is very obvious since IBM has now confirmed 970 is Altivec compatible, and Apple is currently the only PC maker employs Altivec. Furthermore, IBM has stated that 970 will be available up to 1.8 GHZ in Q3 2002, gives us a big clue, what will happen before hand. With IBM fab capacity capable of handling sub .13 micron equipment, 970 is definitely going to be release earlier. IBM has disclosed 970 in MPF which gives them more than 3 months to ramp up the chips for PowerMac, even probably have enough quantity to preannounce DP PM. Also is very clear, if Apple chooses to use Motorola 7457, clock speed will definitely cross 1.3 GHZ perhaps 1.4 with a little bit of overclocking. With IBM clockspeed of only up to 1.8 GHZ max, giving Apple marketing a difficult task to manuever the numbering game. Also 970 is perfect right now, because it is low wattage up to 1.4 GHZ and perfect for DP. Since 970 is deep and wide, giving Apple a perfect advantage to market their pro machines. So Apple is definitely not going to use Motorola higher speed chip due to difficultly in marketing two lines of PowerPC processors. Motorola will release their 7457 anyway because PowerBook needs .13 chips to keep itself cool and 512K of L2 and more L3 will keep Apple competitve compared to Wintel world.</strong><hr></blockquote>

The PowerPC 970 is designed in IBM 0.13-micron CMOS silicon-on-insulator (SOI) technology and will be manufactured in IBM's new state-of-the-art 300-mm facility in East Fishkill, NY. Sampling is scheduled to begin in the second quarter of 2003 with production expected in the second half of 2003.

<a href="http://www-3.ibm.com/chips/products/powerpc/newsletter/dec2002/newproductfocus2.html" target="_blank">http://www-3.ibm.com/chips/products/powerpc/newsletter/dec2002/newproductfocus2.html</a>

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post #8 of 237
not happening

I'm not even too sure we'll see a PowerMac update at MWSF.... it may be later in January or February. The next update will surely be G4 based, perhaps using Motorola's newest revision with faster bus speeds and possibly true DDR support.

My prediction.... PPC 970 shown to developers at WWDC 03 in behind closed doors presentation. Apple works closesly with several third parties to update big-name apps to 64-bit..... and the PowerMac based on the PPC 970 is released at MWNY 03 or Seybold SF 03
post #9 of 237
The 7457 has already been finalized. In no way will it have 'true' DDR support, but a 200MHz bus (1.6GBps) may help with the memory to CPU bottleneck. I'm trying to dig up more info on the 7457.
post #10 of 237
[quote]Originally posted by Outsider:
<strong>The 7457 has already been finalized. In no way will it have 'true' DDR support, but a 200MHz bus (1.6GBps) may help with the memory to CPU bottleneck. I'm trying to dig up more info on the 7457.</strong><hr></blockquote>

could have sworn someone posted a PDF a few months ago that listed DDR support for it. Perhaps it was for another revision <img src="graemlins/hmmm.gif" border="0" alt="[Hmmm]" />
post #11 of 237
That's the 7457-RM.
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post #12 of 237
Whatever CPU they use doesn't really matter to me at this point. What I do want is more than two built-in USB ports though! My UPS wants its own port, and my soundsticks, printers, dongles, scanner, etc. are feeling cramped on the second USB channel. 4 ports please...all on one channel is fine if it's USB 2.0...
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post #13 of 237
I'd wish the mods would delete these posts or simply change the misleading titles.

Yeah , yeah, I know you're trying to get everyone to check out your thread but frankly there is no official word from Apple regarding a G5 at MWSF.

No offense but, perhaps a simple question mark at the end of your title might work as well. I'm just sick of all these "confirmed" and unsubstantiated blanket statements.
post #14 of 237
I agree, satchmo. very sensational of the thread starter. <img src="graemlins/oyvey.gif" border="0" alt="[No]" />
post #15 of 237
[quote]Originally posted by thecube:
<strong>
...This year there is an eerie silence. Even I think that the 970 based machines will be launched. NO ONE IS EXPECTING THEM. That is the key</strong><hr></blockquote>

There's absolutely no reason to have the slightest hope for a 970 based machine at MWSF. We may as well end up with no mayor hardware announcements at all. The eerie silence only indicates that no one has a clue. Anyway though, I still hope we get a brand new iDevice.
post #16 of 237
[quote]Originally posted by ShawnPatrickJoyce:
<strong>I agree, satchmo. very sensational of the thread starter. <img src="graemlins/oyvey.gif" border="0" alt="[No]" /> </strong><hr></blockquote>

agreed, i came in thinking he had evidence
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post #17 of 237
I like how people will ignore things like an official announcement from IBM on when they have will have the chip in production just so they can get their hopes about having their G5 come early.

Like that one dude who said IBM never stated that the chip wouldn't be around till Q3 2003. Umm.. yeah they did.

I would LOVE to have it at MWSF, but im not going to keep my feet firmly planeted in reality and my head well out of the clouds. Aint gonna happen. No way, no how. Get used to it.
post #18 of 237
Thread Starter 
This thread is based on pure prediction and if I have real info, I don't think I will dare to post it. Sure, u guys have logic that you all believe it won't happen but no body knows for sure. By looking at Motorola development throughout the last 365 days, there is not even a 7470. There are so many threads on that too. 970 may have been under development for a long time. Apple also needs a processor supplier to supply them in quantity so that they can capitalize more market share. I don't think Motorola will have sufficient capacity to help or can give Apple a better priority, Apple top of the line G4 is currently overclocked version of 7455. Still want to count on Motorola!!!. So nobody knows for sure. I firmly believe IBM can deliver the chips in lower frequency earlier, perhaps as soon as Q103.
post #19 of 237
[quote]Originally posted by tiramisubomb:
<strong>I firmly believe IBM can deliver the chips in lower frequency earlier, perhaps as soon as Q103.</strong><hr></blockquote>
Based on what evidence? Is it based on what you want to happen? Bah, how religious of you to believe without any evidence.

 

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post #20 of 237
[quote]Originally posted by tiramisubomb:
<strong>Sure, u guys have logic that you all believe it won't happen but no body knows for sure. </strong><hr></blockquote>

Yes we do. IBM told everyone flat out, Q3. If they beat that, then it'll be Q2.
We absolutely know for sure based on facts that there will be no G5 at MWSF. No speculation, no special "logic". Just cold, hard facts. Your the jackass here, buddy.
post #21 of 237
The original poster's assertion is laughably spurious. Simply because Motorola may not be able to deliver any real G4 improvements (which is very likely to be true given past performance) doesn't mean that IBM will be able to deliver any faster. Just because Apple desperately needs the 970 yesterday doesn't mean it's coming at MWSF. Q3 2003 doesn't, in anyone's universe, mean MWSF.
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post #22 of 237
Thread Starter 
Well, whatever u guys say, it simply doesn't matter. There are threads ten times worse with people quoting that I heard it from a friend which is also very laughable. If u guys like evidence, just read off the press because nobody will like to predict here. AI has tons of stories and nobody could proof a thing unless you want Apple legal to chew up your ass. I am just posting my prediction, I am entitle to my own opinion. I don't quite understand why people can post messages like JACK ASSES and stuff here. Shit, I didn't offend anyone, if you don't like it, don't read it.
post #23 of 237
Ok everyone, calm down. Tone down the attacks and just discuss the topic.
post #24 of 237
IBM is VERY conservative when it comes to processor announcements, the PowerPC 750FX turned up in the iBook almost 5 months ahead of IBM's projected shipping date.

However that being said, I still don't think it is happening before the summer at the earliest,

And given Apple's track record over the last few years, your going to want to avoid the Rev.A of these things like the plauge!
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post #25 of 237
Unfortunately, I am confident that we won't see 970 Macs at MWSF. I'll be at the keynote, so I'll find out directly. If I am wrong (which I would love to be, but won't), then tiramisubomb can expect $10 from me to his email address once I get back.
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post #26 of 237
[quote]Originally posted by tiramisubomb:
<strong> I am entitle to my own opinion. I don't quite understand why people can post messages like JACK ASSES and stuff here. Shit, I didn't offend anyone, if you don't like it, don't read it.</strong><hr></blockquote>

No one has an issue with predictions and opinions. Just say that in the title of your post. That it's your guess and not fact. Perhaps then, you won't feel the wrath of AI members.
post #27 of 237
Thread Starter 
Of course its based on assumption. Anyone knows what is going on is probably going to lock up in bars. Apple does not like leaks and everybody knows it, its like Area 51. So we are all speculators with the difference that your assumption and logic are not the same as mine.
post #28 of 237
We will have 1 more update to the G4. Also, I wish people would realize that Apple hasn't updated the towers at an expo in a long time, so stop saying 'at MWSF'.
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post #29 of 237
[quote]Originally posted by KidRed:
<strong>Also, I wish people would realize that Apple hasn't updated the towers at an expo in a long time, so stop saying 'at MWSF'.</strong><hr></blockquote>

And that means what? Before this, they were updating towers at the big shows (Seybold, Expos). Back then people kept saying, "Apple only updates at the Big Shows."

Remember, all "blanket" statements are wrong.

(Before you get an aneurism, that last part was not-so-subtle humor.)
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post #30 of 237
The only possibility that would give this thread any creedence is that IBM and Apple know the devistating effect that the 970 will have on PM sales before it arrives. As a consequence it is in their interest to be very conservative in there estimates of delivery. If you say to someone that there are new machines in a year, most will not wait if they need a machine now. If you say they will be here in three months, most will do the oposite and wait. Would anyone like to post a monthly sales forecast for the next 12 months of PM sales? It would probably look something like this:-

* *
* * *
* * *
* * * *
* * * *
* * * * *
* * * * * *
* * * * * * * *
* * * * * * * *
* * * * * * * * *
* * * * * * * * * * *
J F M A M J J A S O N

If this is a reasonable guess, I would assume the real date for first shipment would be around March/April. If the new processor arrives any time after May, the results will be devistating for Apple. And if machines arrive in February watch the stock price...
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post #31 of 237
I'd look for the drop off to be even more dramatic after March, unless G4 updates happen to be significant and CHEAP.
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post #32 of 237
[quote]Originally posted by Big Mac:
<strong> Q3 2003 doesn't, in anyone's universe, mean MWSF.</strong><hr></blockquote>

well, although what you're stating is probably factually correct in this dimension, i wouldn't be quite so absolute in my statement if i were you... how do you know for sure there aren't other universes, where MWSF's happen in the third quarter ?
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post #33 of 237
[quote]Originally posted by Matsu:
<strong>I'd look for the drop off to be even more dramatic after March, unless G4 updates happen to be significant and CHEAP.</strong><hr></blockquote>

Well I think a lot of people arn't like us and obsessed, particulally in th pre-press business, they will continue to buy because the current machines will do what they need to do.

For those doing just Video/3D then I think you wqould be right, but given the mix of users/buyers I think the graph is about right.
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post #34 of 237
[quote]Originally posted by tiramisubomb:
<strong>So we are all speculators with the difference that your assumption and logic are not the same as mine.</strong><hr></blockquote>

But your assumption has no logic to back it up!?
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post #35 of 237
I like this quote: "it looks more than certain that Apple top line machines will sport PPC 970 badged as G5".

More than certain. Yeah.. I wouldn't be more than certain even if Apple says it themselves. Last time the launched entirely new processors in new machines they ended up not delivering the high end-version until many months later.. Anyone remberling the "smooth" launch of the original G4?
post #36 of 237
[quote]Originally posted by tiramisubomb:
<strong>Well, whatever u guys say, it simply doesn't matter.</strong><hr></blockquote>
And your opinion does?

If there were going to be updates to the Pro line at MWSF, we'd have heard about EOL'd machines by now. There are reports of EOL'd iMacs and eMacs, consistent with rumores of updates there, nothing on the Pro line. So fuggadaboutit.
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post #37 of 237
[quote]Originally posted by Clive:
<strong>

But your assumption has no logic to back it up!?</strong><hr></blockquote>

Actually it does. Saying Q3 03 pretty much kills PMac sales from now on. Apple knows we wait and it hates it.

Which is worse, poor profit for 2 quarters or asking IBM to promote the worst case scenario then release early?

Remember Q3 '03 is full production. Apple might not need full production.

I think it's unlikely, but I admire tiramisus optimism!
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post #38 of 237
[quote]Originally posted by Blackcat:
<strong>I think it's unlikely, but I admire tiramisus optimism!</strong><hr></blockquote>

Just so long as he doesn't come back here after MWSF moaning about how Apple let him down again.
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post #39 of 237
Thread Starter 
Oh I have no logic. Because IBM stated that they will start sampling 970 in Q2, that means nothing is going to be available earlier. IBM can say anything they want but what they do can be different from time to time. At first, I wasn't completely sure that 970 can be used for the next Mac because early details from IBM did not mention Altivec but did mention some sort of SMD unit with 160 instructions built in. The G4 has 162 instructions, so it is not really the same. Few weeks later. IBM has stated the SMD has 162 instructions as opposed to 160 and its Altivec compatible. So, press release can change from time to time.

Another point makes it even clearer, Apple has been busy rebuilding its base and find new ways to increase market share. Their digital hub, coupled with IPOD, Firewire and now even iSync, Iphoto and iCal , all designed to tap into both everyday business and entertaining needs. With Apple, new software strategy and their new vision to capitalize into newer industry such as Hollywood (Final Cut Pro) and consumer video revolution (iMovie). They really need to stay ahead of time. And as you see, Apple retail store and overall sales outperform the PC market. However, their massive effort still only capitalizes 5% market share. Market share should be at least 10% by now. Doesn't that give you a signal, that something else is missing. There are two main reasons why PC users will not switch to Macs.

Reason number one: Mac platform lacks apps and file formats are not compatible - this issue has been partially addressed by iapps strategy along with some big software makers pledges to develop new apps native for OSX. Apple also uses iSync to find new friends such as syncing with bluetooth phones and Palm without the need for those vendors to develop a separate set of applications for Macs. This helps but that is only half the solution.

As for second reason why PC users will stay away: is clockspeed, Intel loves to bluff numbers and performance with unusual high number of pipelines in order to generate frequency but Intel indeed uses the strategy well, with clockspeed increase substantially coupled with an enhance L2, definitely on par compared with top of the line G4 , and the bus that tries to keep the processor busy, with DDR support for FSB also, where is Motorola on this one. OK, may be numbers are misleading, but few years ago even G3 proclaim Pentium are turtle and few years later, you know the story. Altivec helps but not all apps fly and Motorola hasnt done much since then. So what Apple has done recently on this issue, not much. Since superchips need enhanced process and $$$ for development, Motorola is currently in financial trouble, and Apple is not their priority customer either. Theres not much Apple can expect since Motorola cannot be part of the equation. So Apple must address performance for the next issue. It so happens that IBM seems to have a solution at the right place and may be even the best time, why wont it be possible that Apple will adopt it first. 970 can be use on other computing platform, but which one is more important than Apple. Apple is the largest unix vendor and probably is the only alternative platform capable of rebuilding its market share to compete with PC. IBM probably designs the 970 with Apple in mind since IBM likes SJ strategy and wants to help out. (Remember, SJ wants more market share, meaning more unit sales than current) So Apple is not important, 970 is definitely a Mac priority from IBM.

U guys are all Mac users, so am I, SJ makes solutions and he knows for sure if Mac continues to use PowerPC, processor must continue to excel, otherwise switch to Intel. I think there is more than logic. Programmer even tells me to moan about it. What is that to moan, its just a simple thread, there is no bet involve, no need to give each other a bad name like Jackass and I am definitely not religious. This is only my 50th post. Im entitle to my own opinion, I agree I can be wrong too, I am not god and I am definitely not obsess. If all is missing its just a simple question mark for the topic title, I am sorry about it. I am definitely not trying to jack up the response by using this title either. So fxxk you all very much.
post #40 of 237
[quote]Originally posted by Blackcat:
<strong>

Actually it does. Saying Q3 03 pretty much kills PMac sales from now on. Apple knows we wait and it hates it.

Which is worse, poor profit for 2 quarters or asking IBM to promote the worst case scenario then release early?

Remember Q3 '03 is full production. Apple might not need full production.

I think it's unlikely, but I admire tiramisus optimism!</strong><hr></blockquote>

I would like to weigh in on this and I wold like to point out the obvious: IBM is the most un-silent partner that Apple has ever had concerning timelines. These guys go way beyond where ATI went and nothing, I have heard nothing about Seve rants or anything like that. Looking at the 10K that Apple filed sales of DeskTops are down around 20% last year and another approximately 15% this year. If sales continue to falter then at some point Apple will be losing money to produce them. Now I look at this and see what IBM is saying, which has to impact sales like a sharp shot to the ribs, and nothing. Apple is like 'Yea fine'. But for them this is here and now. I mean that if Apple does use the 970 around June of '03 then the sales will only be lifted for the final quarter of '03, July, August, September. I'm not saying anything here just pointing out that it is very odd situation for Apple to take like they are, which is almost lying down.
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