Apple Stock Tumbles On Reported Production Problems With New iMac - Page 2

And one day after the pessimistic analysis, Apple stocks went back up 8%. Maybe somebody else also sat down and figured out that the estimate of already shipped iMacs was absurd, AND saw that the analyst offered no corroboration.

Superb post, Penrake!

Thanks!
Dr. L

[quote]Originally posted by Barvow:
<strong>Maybe somebody else also sat down and figured out that the estimate of already shipped iMacs was absurd, AND saw that the analyst offered no corroboration.</strong><hr></blockquote>
Maybe many AAPL investors and analysts read AI. Maybe this thread gave them a reality check. Probably not, but it'd be cool to think that our posts can effect the market.

Sweet. I am just glad to see it has rebounded so well....

This is total BS! Has any one actually tried to order an iMac G4. I called up several companies. Ex. MacWarehouse, Clubmac, Macmall. They all told me under 2 weeks. I do all my computer shopping from these companies because there is no sales tax. From my experience under 2 weeks really means a week. They just tell you it will take longer then it really will. The AppleStore says 3-5 weeks but then again they always take a long time. Maybe your local "Macstore" doesn't have any iMacs but they're plenty of them out there for now.

[quote]Originally posted by MacsRGood4U:
<strong>eMails to MacInTouch show that people are receiving their iMacs a week after ordering them. Also one person reported going into an Apple Store and purchasing one immediately. Sure, the mid and low iMacs are being delayed by about 2 weeks, but I'll bet more than 100,000 will be shipped by the end of March. By pre-MWNY, they'll be no problem in getting an iMac from all retail and mail order companies. Quanta is getting their act together... they do a great job on the iBook and now on the iMac.</strong><hr></blockquote>


yes but they haven't filled the reseller channels. CompUSAs only have a handful if they have any, J+R I do not believe has any. The mail order companies are out of stock. Meanwhile the Palisades Mall has 70 in stock, Think Apple is being a little unfair with the distribution here?

If it inches Apple past breaking even on its retail strategy, I'm all for Apple hogging iMacs for its own stores. It puts more customers in the stores...

If investors see a profitable retail business, they'll react warmly.

Even if the panic is/was somewhat overblown, the basic point is indisputable. It's bad business to give a release date and not have enough systems sitting around to meet initial demand. I bought my Rev. A iMac the first day it was available, no problems (back when 233 G3 was fast... The supplier had had it a few days, and had time to install my extra RAM too.

As someone mentionned earlier, this is disturbingly similar to the initial G4 speed bump problem. Don't announce that you can do something on a particular date, and then have to revise and revise it (sounds like OS X too, now that I think about it).

Also, It would've been nice if Apple had sent maybe just 100 iMac floor models to Canada, so we might have been able to at least drool on one while a few lucky Yanks got the first few systems.

[ 03-03-2002: Message edited by: W1lsonStark ]</p>

Well, a few days after posting my analysis, the stock is headed back up. I actually decided to pick up 100 shares in the middle somewhere. I like the prospects of AAPL more today than in the recent past. They've got a hit product on their hands (and I imagine it will get even better once they start getting them on TV/movies, into stores, etc) and the production issues look to be getting sorted out.

One of the nice things about this new design is it is SO much better than those of other PC manufacturers LCD models. And this one is going to take quite a while for somebody to successfully engineer, so we most likely won't see decent PC clones for a year or even two.

iPhoto rev 1 is a killer app, and Apple's digital hub strategy is starting to pick up some steam. The fact that they sold 125,000 iPods in 2 months (and it's still getting great press) means that Apple is going to get a bit more confident and take some more risks.

OS X is starting to rock. It will get only better with time, but we're starting to see some of the advantages in the OS framework (Quartz, etc) that will give Apple a good lead over Microsoft/Linux.

Apple's only about 1 week behind shipments on the mid-range units, and ship times seem to have settled down to about 1 month, with some people reporting 2 weeks from the resellers.

The press is in a feeding frenzy over these iMacs - first Time, now everybody has jumped on board to praise it. It's almost hard to remember the initial "Huh? What's that?" response to the design, the praise is so overwhelming now.

A good time to own AAPL, I think....

yea, a hit product and good press it great but with it also comes reduced margins and the fact that Apple hasn't turned an operational profit in over a year

I'm interested in knowing what you mean by operational profit. While it's true they did lose money in the Q4 last year on operations ($4M) they made money in Q3 and Q2 ($53M and $31M respectively), and made a total FY2001 operational profit of $72M. Not too shabby.

Of course, when you add in interest/etc on all the wonderful cash they're sitting on they made $208M in profits last year.



Nonetheless, I do agree they need to continue to innovate in order to continue growth and profit. I think the new iMac is a good start to that innovation for FY2002. I doubt they'll roll out G5s this year (sounds like the G4s have quite a bit of steam, and this looks to be a new "year of the iMac").

My largest concern about the company from a stockholder protection is that it isn't bus-proof. They've got great people, good innovation, but Stevie has too much of the limelight. When he gets bored, etc., it could present an issue to shareholders. I would like to see him continue to push some of his supporting staff into the limelight a bit more in order to diversify the company's public face...

:cool:

[quote]I'm interested in knowing what you mean by operational profit. While it's true they did lose money in the Q4 last year on operations ($4M) they made money in Q3 and Q2 ($53M and $31M respectively), and made a total FY2001 operational profit of $72M. Not too shabby.<hr></blockquote>

I do believe this is incorrect. I'll double check or maybe someone else can back either you or me up before then

[quote]
Of course, when you add in interest/etc on all the wonderful cash they're sitting on they made $208M in profits last year.<hr></blockquote>

and a rolleyes for what? So in order to stay decently profitable Apple can not spend any of their cash reserves. that's not good. they are running a company off of interest. what happens if they have a downturn? all that money goes away and Apple loses millions and eventual possibly billions.

AAPL financial info: <a href="http://biz.yahoo.com/fin/l/a/aapl.html" target="_blank">Yahoo</a>

I agree, that any company that relies on its cash reserves to make money is in a failed business model. Of course, last year was a bad one for the industry as a whole, and a large reason behind Apple losing money in the fourth quarter was the combination of 9/11 and the capital expense of retail rollouts.

I wouldn't be suprised to see them put another 50M in the bank this quarter (before interest), and the fact that they put $200M in the bank last year is a good sign.

I'm really happy to see them aggresively tackle the whole audit issue. I think Microsoft specifically is going to get stung in the upcoming years over this (did you know they generated more cash from stock sale last year than they did from their monopoly profits?).

Sorry about the rolling eyes, I guess I was just annoyed to see you incorrectly spouting off on such an easily checkable fact...