Well, a few days after posting my analysis, the stock is headed back up. I actually decided to pick up 100 shares in the middle somewhere. I like the prospects of AAPL more today than in the recent past. They've got a hit product on their hands (and I imagine it will get even better once they start getting them on TV/movies, into stores, etc) and the production issues look to be getting sorted out.
One of the nice things about this new design is it is SO much better than those of other PC manufacturers LCD models. And this one is going to take quite a while for somebody to successfully engineer, so we most likely won't see decent PC clones for a year or even two.
iPhoto rev 1 is a killer app, and Apple's digital hub strategy is starting to pick up some steam. The fact that they sold 125,000 iPods in 2 months (and it's still getting great press) means that Apple is going to get a bit more confident and take some more risks.
OS X is starting to rock. It will get only better with time, but we're starting to see some of the advantages in the OS framework (Quartz, etc) that will give Apple a good lead over Microsoft/Linux.
Apple's only about 1 week behind shipments on the mid-range units, and ship times seem to have settled down to about 1 month, with some people reporting 2 weeks from the resellers.
The press is in a feeding frenzy over these iMacs - first Time, now everybody has jumped on board to praise it. It's almost hard to remember the initial "Huh? What's that?" response to the design, the praise is so overwhelming now.
A good time to own AAPL, I think....