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How to tell facts from fraud

post #1 of 21
Thread Starter 
Okay I start this thread to sum up the experience we must have gathered up for the last couple of years regarding knowing when to trust a rumour and when not to. Hopefully this thread can be a reference for "new kids" in the future.

In my eyes the only time you can be sure that something posted on a rumour site is the real thing is when some parts (or all) of the information is replaced with the "removed on the request from Apple legal" mumbo jumbo. I have yet to see one of those to turn out fake.

Anyone wants to give their version on how to spot a faker from the real thing on message boards? I have yet to see anyone post at rumour sites beside workerbee who have known anything. Was there something about him that made it obvious that he knew besides the pictures he gave us?

[ 12-29-2001: Message edited by: Anders ]</p>
"I reject your reality and substitute it with my own" - President Bush
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post #2 of 21
Thread Starter 
...

[ 12-29-2001: Message edited by: Anders ]</p>
"I reject your reality and substitute it with my own" - President Bush
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"I reject your reality and substitute it with my own" - President Bush
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post #3 of 21
If the poster name has a conotation to masterbating then I think it is an obvious clue that that person is a fake.
post #4 of 21
Thread Starter 
[quote]Originally posted by Macintosh:
<strong>If the poster name has a conotation to masterbating then I think it is an obvious clue that that person is a fake.</strong><hr></blockquote>

Not everything here is about you, okay?

Please some serious replies folks
"I reject your reality and substitute it with my own" - President Bush
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"I reject your reality and substitute it with my own" - President Bush
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post #5 of 21
I think that Worker Bee had real pictures of the G4 Cube to aid his inside info.

[ 12-29-2001: Message edited by: Macintosh ]</p>
post #6 of 21
[ REMOVED AT THE REQUEST OF APPLE LEGAL ]

Damn.

[ 12-29-2001: Message edited by: Gandalf the Semi-Coherent ]</p>
post #7 of 21
Any thread with "Confirmed" in the title is utter BS.
post #8 of 21
te interesting thing is that there is ALWAYS someone on these boards that DOES know what is coming out. it happens everytime. they list it exact and no one really notices it.

macsKickAss used to know everything that was coming out. AAPL Shareholder. and many others. it's pretty funny actually.

and believe it or not, Fran always seems to be 90% right <img src="graemlins/bugeye.gif" border="0" alt="[Skeptical]" />
post #9 of 21
Thread Starter 
[quote]Originally posted by applenut:
<strong>
and believe it or not, Fran always seems to be 90% right <img src="graemlins/bugeye.gif" border="0" alt="[Skeptical]" /> </strong><hr></blockquote>

And I take pride in the fact that Fran and I agree on 90% of all issues The trick Fran is using is to be cool headed and realistic
"I reject your reality and substitute it with my own" - President Bush
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"I reject your reality and substitute it with my own" - President Bush
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post #10 of 21
[quote]Originally posted by applenut:
<strong>

and believe it or not, Fran always seems to be 90% right <img src="graemlins/bugeye.gif" border="0" alt="[Skeptical]" /> </strong><hr></blockquote>

Must be the Boston mentality
post #11 of 21
What about people who make true predictions but are still frauds who make educated guesses? Sometimes people can get lucky with educated guesses.

And don't forget Kormac who always seemed to be considered some kind of AI legend. Personally i didn't think he ever had anything revolutionary to say.

There are also posters like Dorsal who have test machines (or claim to have them at least) and they only know what they have in their test machines. The test machines may be the very same product that is being prepared for release, or they may be something completely different. Do we label people such as Dorsal as fakes simply because the product they describe isn't released? They still could have potentially been telling the truth. Clearly test machines are being used to test something, and maybe there was a problem that could not be fixed, thus inspiring a complete redesign of the product. This still doesn't make the people who are kind enough to post info on these test machines fakes.

O well enough rambling from me the bottom line is there is no real way to tell what are true facts and what is fraud. Even if a product that someone predicts does get released, there is no proof that they didn't simply make an educated guess and when something someone describes is not released there is no proof that the machine they tested simply didn't make it to production.

[ 12-29-2001: Message edited by: Cosmo ]</p>
post #12 of 21
There is absolutely no way to tell if someone is a "real" insider until the product is released. Pretty simple. We are too jaded and so are the ones who post the info.
post #13 of 21
And of course, by the time a MW rolls around and we find out what really happens, we forget about who was wrong. (Unless you are talking about MOSR)(Hey I like MOSR).
"Its a good thing theres no law against a company having a monopoly of good ideas. Otherwise Apple would be in deep yogurt..."
-Apple Press Release
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"Its a good thing theres no law against a company having a monopoly of good ideas. Otherwise Apple would be in deep yogurt..."
-Apple Press Release
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post #14 of 21
I'm flattered.
post #15 of 21
Here's a really quick and easy way to differentiate the insiders from the attention-starved, "point making" (ahem...) chuckleheads:

Don't believe ANY of them.

Never fails and works like a charm.

There have been two, MAYBE three people in the nearly two years I've been hanging out at AI who actually seemed to have a bit of a clue regarding upcoming, unreleased stuff.

TWO PEOPLE.

I said it during that whole MasterGater thing: it's WAY too easy for any nimrod to come in here, start laying on bullcrap about how they "work for a software firm..." or have a "cousin who's banging some chick who works at Motorola and she said..."



Please.

Take EVERYTHING you see here with a huge grain of salt and realize that the odds are EXTREMELY high that whoever is saying it is a) woefully misinformed or b) completely full of shit.

Yes, I am the ultimate skeptic. And you know what? I've never been letdown or deflated or had any of my MW Expo bubbles burst either, so...

You'll know the truth and the REAL deal soon enough, so play with it all for fun, realizing it's just harmless speculation and wishlists.

But don't pin your hopes (and start allocating $4000 of your hard-earned money) to some pie-in-the-sky bullshit you hear on these (and other) message boards.

It's highly likely that the poster of said "inside info" is some 13-year-old puddinghead with stained underwear, a Korn screen saver and entirely too much time on his hands.



[ 12-29-2001: Message edited by: pscates ]</p>
post #16 of 21
Thread Starter 
Couldn´t have said it better myself except for one thing. I think most of the 13 year old who try to play a stunt like this have Britney Spears screen savers.
"I reject your reality and substitute it with my own" - President Bush
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"I reject your reality and substitute it with my own" - President Bush
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post #17 of 21
Um... just for the record this is my screen saver.

<img src="graemlins/smokin.gif" border="0" alt="[Chilling]" />
post #18 of 21
a red x? great
post #19 of 21
[quote]te interesting thing is that there is ALWAYS someone on these boards that DOES know what is coming out. it happens everytime. they list it exact and no one really notices it.<hr></blockquote>



like:

933 1700 | 1.13 2200 | D867 3000 | Q800 4000

oh sorry. just educated guesses. someone will screw up, i'm shure...probably gonna be motorola, imagine what happens if the yields go up..zzz...

[ 12-30-2001: Message edited by: Strangelove ]</p>
post #20 of 21
The biggest problem with a place like this is that Steve himself could make up an alias and post the entire contents of his keynote and in the end, some would believe and some wouldn't. It's a matter of 'gut instinct' (for me) as to when I believe someone and when I don't... Am I wrong some of the time? Sure but I guess that's part of the game we all play here.

Some hard/fast rules that send up warning flags... Any post that begins with "My friend... My uncle... My Whatever..." as well as any varaition on the 'while (someplace) I over heard' where someplace is a bar or in line for a movie.

The posts that I tend to believe are from those who have a known rep for being right... but since this a kinda-sorta a new board (since the member lists and message archives got trashed) this Jan 7th will beging new track records for people...

With all the crud I've seen posted I think we'll see a lot of names drop off from active posting... To be replaced by new 'tipsters'

Dave
Apple Fanboy: Anyone who started liking Apple before I did!
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Apple Fanboy: Anyone who started liking Apple before I did!
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post #21 of 21
[quote]Originally posted by Strangelove:
<strong>



like:

Q800 4000

oh sorry. just educated guesses. someone will screw up, i'm shure...probably gonna be motorola, imagine what happens if the yields go up..zzz...

]</strong><hr></blockquote>

Q800? Man, I think I just stained my underwear...
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