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"$477 billion budget deficit this year"

post #1 of 30
1/26/04 at 3:33pm
Thread Starter 
The CBO has chimed in:

"If President Bush succeeds in making his 2001 and 2003 tax cuts permanent, the deficit could reach nearly $3.5 trillion over the next decade, with the tax cuts alone costing the Treasury $295 billion a year by 2014, CBO said.


Even without that change, the government's long-term finances have worsened considerably in the past six months, largely due to the war in Iraq and passage of the $400 billion law adding a prescription drug benefit to Medicare. In August, congressional forecasters predicted a 10-year deficit of $1.4 trillion through 2013. That figure has jumped nearly a trillion dollars since then. "

Read more here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...l?nav=hptop_tb

so...Will the deficit be a serious issue in the campaign? Or is Cheney right that Reagan taught us "deficits don't matter"?
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post #2 of 30
1/26/04 at 3:45pm
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Quote:
Originally posted by midwinter
so...Will the deficit be a serious issue in the campaign? Or is Cheney right that Reagan taught us "deficits don't matter"?

but this deficit follows one hell of a non-deficit time in american history. i mean, americans have short attention spans, but not THAT short...

what was i talking about again???

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You're made to feel as if your love's a crime.
Nothing worth having comes without some kind of fight.
Gotta kick at the darkness 'til it bleeds daylight.

-...
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When you're lovers in a dangerous time,
You're made to feel as if your love's a crime.
Nothing worth having comes without some kind of fight.
Gotta kick at the darkness 'til it bleeds daylight.

-...
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post #3 of 30
1/26/04 at 3:50pm
So far polls are showing that he's weak on the economy and jobs... and strong on natinal security...

and it so happens that that's the order of importance to voters this time around...

1. The economy
2. Jobs

4 or 5. National Security and Iraq

Also in a recent poll it had Kerry beating BUsh 50 to 49.
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post #4 of 30
1/26/04 at 3:53pm
it's feeling like the administration is going to get a free ride, cause of the war on terror, and the iraq war too. but departments that have nothing to do with either of the aforementioned are running with budget increases.
it will be an issue if whatever democrat that gets nominated can make it one. it will also depend on the economy this summer and fall.

the deficit turned around so quickly during the econonomic boom of the clinton administration, that people who claim that the sky is falling because of the deficit may not get heard by ordinary citizens because frankly they've heard it before and it turned out to be "no big deal."
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post #5 of 30
1/26/04 at 3:54pm
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally posted by superkarate monkeydeathcar
it's feeling like the administration is going to get a free ride, cause of the war on terror, and the iraq war too. but departments that have nothing to do with either of the aforementioned are running with budget increases.
it will be an issue if whatever democrat that gets nominated can make it one. it will also depend on the economy this summer and fall.

the deficit turned around so quickly during the econonomic boom of the clinton administration, that people who claim that the sky is falling because of the deficit may not get heard by ordinary citizens because frankly they've heard it before and it turned out to be "no big deal."

yup. And it only took a big tax hike on the rich to make that deficit go away....
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post #6 of 30
1/26/04 at 4:50pm
Better to have high taxes on the rich than a huge deficit. Better to have a more efficient government than either of those.
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post #7 of 30
1/26/04 at 5:06pm
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally posted by groverat
Better to have high taxes on the rich than a huge deficit. Better to have a more efficient government than either of those.

Indeed. I would argue, though, that while most folks complain about taxes, they'd rather not deal with the consequences of slimming (I know you said "more efficient"...I'm just riffing off your point) the gov't, which would certainly entail either cuts in services or a shifting of the tax burden to the local level.

Cheers
Scott
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post #8 of 30
1/26/04 at 5:09pm
Quote:
Originally posted by chu_bakka
So far polls are showing that he's weak on the economy and jobs... and strong on natinal security...

and it so happens that that's the order of importance to voters this time around...

1. The economy
2. Jobs

4 or 5. National Security and Iraq

Also in a recent poll it had Kerry beating BUsh 50 to 49.

Dude, you're a real piece of work.
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post #9 of 30
1/26/04 at 5:12pm
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Quote:
Originally posted by SDW2001
Dude, you're a real piece of work.

Read the Jon's announcement at the top of the page.

 

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post #10 of 30
1/26/04 at 5:13pm
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Quote:
Originally posted by midwinter
Indeed. I would argue, though, that while most folks complain about taxes, they'd rather not deal with the consequences of slimming (I know you said "more efficient"...I'm just riffing off your point) the gov't, which would certainly entail either cuts in services or a shifting of the tax burden to the local level.

Cheers
Scott

Consolidation of parallel programs and reduction of government waste would not result in any loss of programs and a huge reduction of expenses.

 

“The nitrogen in our DNA, the calcium in our teeth, the iron in our blood, the carbon in our apple pies were made in the interiors of collapsing stars. We are made of starstuff.” 
-Sagan
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“The nitrogen in our DNA, the calcium in our teeth, the iron in our blood, the carbon in our apple pies were made in the interiors of collapsing stars. We are made of starstuff.” 
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post #11 of 30
1/26/04 at 5:18pm
"Waste reduction" ain't gonna do it. If you want to do it by cutting spending, you've got to go for at least one of the biggies: Health care, Social Security, military, and interest on the debt. Anything else just isn't gonna make a dent.
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post #12 of 30
1/26/04 at 5:22pm
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally posted by BRussell
"Waste reduction" ain't gonna do it. If you want to do it by cutting spending, you've got to go for at least one of the biggies: Health care, Social Security, military, and interest on the debt. Anything else just isn't gonna make a dent.

Right. Interstate highways. Medicare. Medicaid. Cut the size of the military in half (i.e. CLOSE SOME OF THE DAMNED BASES)...and thereby destroy the economy in some towns.
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post #13 of 30
1/26/04 at 6:20pm
Quote:
Originally posted by groverat
Better to have high taxes on the rich than a huge deficit. Better to have a more efficient government than either of those.

Actually, I understand that the long-term plan is to increase the taxes on the poor and lower middle class and to decrease what is left of services that benefit them.
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post #14 of 30
1/26/04 at 6:24pm
actually i'm a huge fan of shifting taxes to a local level. at least when you're paying out locally, you have a snowball's chance in hell of following where the money went.

send your taxes off to Washington and you can kiss them goodbye.

as for the "TAX THE RICH" mentality, that's why the middle class and poor are paying income taxes today. smooth move.
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post #15 of 30
1/26/04 at 6:24pm
Quote:
Originally posted by BRussell
"Waste reduction" ain't gonna do it. If you want to do it by cutting spending, you've got to go for at least one of the biggies: Health care, Social Security, military, and interest on the debt. Anything else just isn't gonna make a dent.

This is true. The most amazing thing about all the "tax cuts did this folks." Is that the tax cuts aren't even fully into effect yet and count for (if I recall correctly) something like 100 billion or so of the deficit.

I would be glad to suggest that tax cuts remain temporary and move back to their previous level after expiring if the left would be glad to suggest some serious cuts on some of these biggies.

(mzz...mzzz.mzzz...) Huh? What do you mean I'm not a legislator and have no f*cking power over this?!?!

Nick

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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post #16 of 30
1/26/04 at 6:25pm
Quote:
Originally posted by BRussell
"Waste reduction" ain't gonna do it. If you want to do it by cutting spending, you've got to go for at least one of the biggies: Health care, Social Security, military, and interest on the debt. Anything else just isn't gonna make a dent.

Exactly correct. Pretty much every government in memory has pledged to reduce waste. While it is a worthwhile aim - and an ongoing effort - it is not an immediate or large source of funds.
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post #17 of 30
1/26/04 at 6:29pm
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally posted by alcimedes
actually i'm a huge fan of shifting taxes to a local level. at least when you're paying out locally, you have a snowball's chance in hell of following where the money went.

send your taxes off to Washington and you can kiss them goodbye.

as for the "TAX THE RICH" mentality, that's why the middle class and poor are paying income taxes today. smooth move.

Shifting taxes to the local level is, I believe, a terrible idea. All you need to do is look at the economy of a small town in somewhere like Oklahoma to see the tremendous benefit of collecting money from all over the country and redistributing it where it's needed.

Cheers
Scott
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post #18 of 30
1/26/04 at 6:33pm
Quote:
Originally posted by trumptman
This is true. The most amazing thing about all the "tax cuts did this folks." Is that the tax cuts aren't even fully into effect yet and count for (if I recall correctly) something like 100 billion or so of the deficit.

I would be glad to suggest that tax cuts remain temporary and move back to their previous level after expiring if the left would be glad to suggest some serious cuts on some of these biggies.

(mzz...mzzz.mzzz...) Huh? What do you mean I'm not a legislator and have no f*cking power over this?!?!

Nick

True enough. The deficit is also caused by the prolonged economic slowdown and also by the spending of the current government, which needless to say, has not been on liberal priorities. I had seen figures more along the lines of $200 billion of the amount was due to the cuts, but I am not sure that I am recalling correctly either.

The future tax cuts are, however, factored into future deficit predictions - and the future does not look good. As I argued with trumpetman some months ago, all of this means that taxes will have to go up. That's what happened after the Reagan mistake, that's what will happen after the George W. mistake. Probably George W. will not do this himself - so we are looking to the next President in '05...or '09 to clean up the mess of the current bunch of jokers.
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post #19 of 30
1/26/04 at 7:44pm
I thought that it would be a good idea to get a better idea of the actual numbers and the causes. Here is a good site describing the relative proportion of the U.S. deficit caused by each of the factors. It is a bit dated - based on projections of about 6 months ago - but likely is still pretty much applicable. The estimate here is actually about 300 billion of the deficit is due to the tax cuts. (N.B., it is based on projections that, even with the recession, the budget would be in surplus absent the legislative initiatives of the Bush administration on spending and tax cuts - and then estimates the cost of each of the initiatives.)

Here is the linked chart, for those that like to see these things visually:



The chart is interesting, but the underlying numbers and analysis of the link itself are even more worth a read, for those who want to take the time.
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post #20 of 30
1/26/04 at 8:10pm
this interesting....check the percent of GDP to National Debt, (not to be confused with the budget deficit.)

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and in that lies not liberation but alienation, the cutting off from things as they really are. --...

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In our desire to impose form on the world we have lost the capacity to see the form that is there;
and in that lies not liberation but alienation, the cutting off from things as they really are. --...

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post #21 of 30
1/26/04 at 8:28pm
Your debt chart appears to end in 2000. I am not sure that it helps very much with the analysis of what has happened since GWB arrived in office. It is useful to get a picture of what was happening before.
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post #22 of 30
1/26/04 at 9:13pm
Thanks for the constructive criticism...SDW... I know if I'm getting comments like that from you, I'm doing something right.

I was just conveying what I read on Sunday.

Bush got no lift from the SOTU because he talked about the war in iraq and steroids... and mapped out nothing to create jobs and help the economy.

He said he would cut the deficit in half by 2010... but didn't say how... by making his tax cuts for the wealthy permanent?
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post #23 of 30
1/26/04 at 9:26pm
Quote:
He said he would cut the deficit in half by 2010... but didn't say how... by making his tax cuts for the wealthy permanent?

actually, it was by using revised numbers (whether accurate or not is another story) of the economy as it recovers, as well as the fact that we're unlikely to be spending money in Iraq at the same rate over the next four years. (which the initial estimate included)

however, that does assume that the tax cuts end at their sunset provision date. if they don't, then there's no deficit change. it stays at the current projected level, but would be less than the one used by the Dem. party which is significantly larger still.

i understand that looking to the future is always a good idea when budgeting, but to really expect to get an accurate understanding of what the future budget will be like by straight guesswork is kind of stupid. these numbers aren't written in stone, but should serve as a decent warning about really stupid spending trends.
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post #24 of 30
1/26/04 at 9:41pm
You said way more than he did.
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post #25 of 30
1/26/04 at 9:54pm
hehe... from the Miami Herald.


A crowd of hundreds at the Office Depot Center in Sunrise applauded wildly when Clinton said cutting taxes ''for people like me'' and spending on a deficit ``makes no sense.''

He said ''it feels good'' to do those things, and paused to demonstrate his now classic punch line mannerism -- the bowed head, the pursed lips, the aw-shucks exhale. ``But it doesn't last.''

Clinton added, 'People ask me what great new ideas did you bring to Washington. I say, `Arithmetic.' ''

Again, he paused. ``You know, when practical people find themselves in a hole, they stop digging.''
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post #26 of 30
1/26/04 at 9:57pm
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally posted by chu_bakka
hehe... from the Miami Herald.


A crowd of hundreds at the Office Depot Center in Sunrise applauded wildly when Clinton said cutting taxes ''for people like me'' and spending on a deficit ``makes no sense.''

He said ''it feels good'' to do those things, and paused to demonstrate his now classic punch line mannerism -- the bowed head, the pursed lips, the aw-shucks exhale. ``But it doesn't last.''

Clinton added, 'People ask me what great new ideas did you bring to Washington. I say, `Arithmetic.' ''

Again, he paused. ``You know, when practical people find themselves in a hole, they stop digging.''

Heh. He said much the same thing at the Harkin steak fry a while back. I imagine that if he has his way (as savant advisor to the DLC), we'll hear more of this line of argument.
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post #27 of 30
1/26/04 at 10:13pm
Quote:
Originally posted by SDW2001
Dude, you're a real piece of work.


Like it or not this will weigh heavily on the next election.
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post #28 of 30
1/26/04 at 10:18pm
Here's reliable ECONOMIST Krugman on the issue...

Red Ink Realities
By PAUL KRUGMAN
Published: January 27, 2004

Even conservatives are starting to admit that George Bush isn't serious when he claims to be doing something about the exploding budget deficit. At best to borrow the already classic language of the State of the Union address his administration is engaged in deficit reduction-related program activities.

But these admissions have been accompanied by an urban legend about what went wrong. According to cleverly misleading reports from the Heritage Foundation and other like-minded sources, the deficit is growing because Mr. Bush isn't sufficiently conservative: he's allowing runaway growth in domestic spending. This myth is intended to divert attention from the real culprit: sharply reduced tax collections, mainly from corporations and the wealthy.

Is domestic spending really exploding? Think about it: farm subsidies aside, which domestic programs have received lavish budget increases over the last three years? Education? Don't be silly: No Child Left Behind is rapidly turning into a sick joke.

In fact, many government agencies are severely underfinanced. For example, last month the head of the National Park Service's police admitted to reporters that her force faced serious budget and staff shortages, and was promptly suspended.

cont.

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/01/27/opinion/27KRUG.html
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post #29 of 30
1/26/04 at 10:27pm
Quote:
Originally posted by jimmac
Like it or not this will way heavily on the next election.

Yes it will (and you mean "weigh" heavily). I'm scared to death that the US will go bust within the next decade if the next president doesn't fix the damage GWB has done to the "budget". The truth is that the budget is in a shambles. It's not just that both the tax cuts and the war were of questionable intent, it's also that we could afford neither.

You don't go out and buy a new state-of-the art laser security system for your lovely home when you're neck deep in debt and unable to pay your mortgage without borrowing from your children to do it.

Osama has succeeded in ruining America financially by playing to the party-in-power's patent paranoia. If he's alive he's certainly smiling whenever he looks at these numbers.
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post #30 of 30
1/27/04 at 6:32am
Quote:
Originally posted by alcimedes


[...]

... these numbers aren't written in stone, but should serve as a decent warning about really stupid spending trends.

And, even more so - as many have posted here - should serve a warning about the effects of unnecessary and unaffordable tax cuts for the wealthy.
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