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July Surprise

post #1 of 26
Thread Starter 
The New Republic is reporting that the Bush administration has been putting pressure on Pakistan to get busy with finding bin Laden. And, it would be nice if you could find him during the Democratic convention.

Quote:
But according to this ISI official, a White House aide told ul-Haq last spring that "it would be best if the arrest or killing of [any] HVT were announced on twenty-six, twenty-seven, or twenty-eight July"--the first three days of the Democratic National Convention in Boston.

HVT refers to "high value target," meaning bin Laden or other top al Qaeda person.

Truthfully, I'm not sure I buy it: Anonymous sources. During the Democratic convention? Does that even make sense? Wouldn't it be better in October?

In any case, if there is any truth in this (or even if there isn't), any HVTs that are picked up before the election will be dismissed as political, after this article.
post #2 of 26
Quote:
Originally posted by BRussell
The New Republic is reporting that the Bush administration has been putting pressure on Pakistan to get busy with finding bin Laden. And, it would be nice if you could find him during the Democratic convention.



HVT refers to "high value target," meaning bin Laden or other top al Qaeda person.

Truthfully, I'm not sure I buy it: Anonymous sources. During the Democratic convention? Does that even make sense? Wouldn't it be better in October?

In any case, if there is any truth in this (or even if there isn't), any HVTs that are picked up before the election will be dismissed as political, after this article.

Who is more likely to tell the truth, Pakistan or the USA, and if this was true, then why didn't the media over there leak it first, I doubt that the New Republic has more access to the government of Pakistan than does the local/regional Arab media, after all, the Pakistanies don't realy care for Bush.

If I had info like that, I wouldnt go to new republic, I would go to a REAL news organization, honestley, if you were sitting on this, would you 'leak' it to them?

and of course all of the media will regurgitate the story, some verbatem no doubt, I would be more likely to beleve this if other reputable news outfits do their own damn research and show more solid proof, how about a name of the white house aid in question.
You can't quantify how much I don't care -- Bob Kevoian of the Bob and Tom Show.
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You can't quantify how much I don't care -- Bob Kevoian of the Bob and Tom Show.
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post #3 of 26
Thread Starter 
Pakistan captures high-level al Qaeda operative.

Quote:
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan (CNN) -- Pakistani security forces have captured a high-level al Qaeda operative who was on the FBI's most-wanted terrorist list in connection with the 1998 U.S. Embassy bombings in Africa, Interior Minister Faisal Saleh Hayat said Thursday.



(Hey maybe a mod can move this to PO?)
post #4 of 26
Moving to PoliticalOutsider...
post #5 of 26
I think the Bush administration should have gone after him 100% after 911 but instead they chased Saddam. They didnt focus on what was the target so now his political life is on the line with Kerry running neck and neck. More garbage from this garbage administration. this ranks right there with arresting people in washington for eating candybars on trains. We can do better then this. is this America or Nazi Germany?
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VOTE OUT ALL INCUMBENTS! Its the only way we can clean up Congress.
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post #6 of 26
From TNR's new piece, 'July Surprise'...

Quote:
A third source, an official who works under ISI's director, Lieutenant General Ehsan ul-Haq, informed tnr that the Pakistanis "have been told at every level that apprehension or killing of HVTs [i.e., high-value al Qaida targets] before [the] election is [an] absolute must." What's more, this source claims that Bush administration officials have told their Pakistani counterparts they have a date in mind for announcing this achievement: "The last ten days of July deadline has been given repeatedly by visitors to Islamabad and during [ul-Haq's] meetings in Washington." Says McCormack: "I'm aware of no such comment." But according to this ISI official, a White House aide told ul-Haq last spring that "it would be best if the arrest or killing of [any] HVT were announced on twenty-six, twenty-seven, or twenty-eight July"--the first three days of the Democratic National Convention in Boston.

Pakistan delivered as promised:

Quote:
Pakistan said Friday it had arrested a senior al Qaeda figure wanted for the 1998 bombings of two U.S. embassies in Africa that killed hundreds of people.

Interior Minister Faisal Saleh Hayat identified the man as Ahmed Khalfan Ghailini and said he was a Tanzanian national wanted for the synchronized bombings that killed more than 200 people at the U.S. embassy in Kenya and 11 at the embassy in Tanzania.

"He carried head money of $25 million," Hayat told Reuters.

He said Ghailani was one of about a dozen people arrested on Tuesday when security forces raided a suspected militant hideout in the city of Gujarat, about 110 miles southeast of the capital Islamabad.

Pakistan delivered.
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"The selfishness of Ayn Rand capitalism is the equivalent of intellectual masturbation -- satisfying in an ego-stroking way, but an ethical void when it comes to our commonly shared humanity."
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post #7 of 26
Well blow me down.

This is kinda... appalling.
post #8 of 26
Quote:
Originally posted by Hassan i Sabbah
Well blow me down.

This is kinda... appalling.

Kind of!!!!!!!?!?!?!?!

if it weren't so pathetically typical, and if I weren't so jaded by these GOP ****ers I would be shocked and appalled . . . unstead I merely know that I should be.
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--Franklin Miller.

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"They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we."
--George W Bush

"Narrative is what starts to happen after eight minutes
--Franklin Miller.

"Nothing...

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post #9 of 26
I have been highly critical of those who call a "timing!" foul when things like this happen. But even my eyebrows are raised at this.
proud resident of a failed state
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proud resident of a failed state
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post #10 of 26
It's comforting to know that Bush admin puts the safety and security of Americans ahead of their political careers.
post #11 of 26
That's really funny, and it makes it pretty interesting to see what the GOP is planning for October-November.

A nice side-news is that the US-government has just reduced the head-money for that guy from 25 millions to merely 5 million dollars, go figure.

Nightcrawler
I disagree, and could prove you're wrong; care to offer any proof that you're not wrong?
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I disagree, and could prove you're wrong; care to offer any proof that you're not wrong?
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post #12 of 26
Quote:
Originally posted by Nightcrawler
That's really funny, and it makes it pretty interesting to see what the GOP is planning for October-November.

A nice side-news is that the US-government has just reduced the head-money for that guy from 25 millions to merely 5 million dollars, go figure.

Nightcrawler

You know that OBL will be captured just before the elections, right?
post #13 of 26
Quote:
Originally posted by PBG4 Dude
You know that OBL will be captured just before the elections, right?

Anything less of his execution texan style at the republic convention would be a august surprise for me.
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"I reject your reality and substitute it with my own" - President Bush
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post #14 of 26
Even the NYT, in its story about the capture, failed to mention the New Republic article. I have a feeling that article is headed down the memory hole...

Edit: Paul Krugman, rapidly becoming my favorite NYT columnist, did mention the New Republic article in a one-sentence post-postscript to his column on an unrelated subject. Those two bare sentences, just the facts, represent the only mention in the nation's "paper of record" of what could be (and should become) the worst political scandal since Watergate.
post #15 of 26
What really pisses me off is that by rolling over and playing dead, the media send the message to the Bush admin (actually continue to send the message) that they can pull any kind of outrageous bullshit they want and there will be no public accounting.

I've got friends that assume that because Florida will be closely watched, the republicans wouldn't dare screw with it, to which my response is, "why wouldn't they?"

All they risk is a bunch of "angry liberals" without any power to force the issue. Without investigative journalism that doesn't defer to the white house, the facts become a story and the story becomes a legend.

After that, the right is free to assert anything it wants (as they surely have done) over and over again, and since they dominate the bullhorns, and because the press presents no substantiative countervailing account of record, the "official history" is what the right wing pundits say it is.
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They spoke of the sayings and doings of their commander, the grand duke, and told stories of his kindness and irascibility.
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post #16 of 26
Quote:
Originally posted by addabox
What really pisses me off is that by rolling over and playing dead, the media send the message to the Bush admin (actually continue to send the message) that they can pull any kind of outrageous bullshit they want and there will be no public accounting.

I've got friends that assume that because Florida will be closely watched, the republicans wouldn't dare screw with it, to which my response is, "why wouldn't they?"

All they risk is a bunch of "angry liberals" without any power to force the issue. Without investigative journalism that doesn't defer to the white house, the facts become a story and the story becomes a legend.

After that, the right is free to assert anything it wants (as they surely have done) over and over again, and since they dominate the bullhorns, and because the press presents no substantiative countervailing account of record, the "official history" is what the right wing pundits say it is.

Brilliant post! This is exactly how I feel about the whole gaddamn situation!

I thought to myself that BushCo wouldn't dare do something like this now that TNR spilled the beans. And guess what? They sure as hell did and the media let it happen!

Liberal media MY ASS!
"The selfishness of Ayn Rand capitalism is the equivalent of intellectual masturbation -- satisfying in an ego-stroking way, but an ethical void when it comes to our commonly shared humanity."
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"The selfishness of Ayn Rand capitalism is the equivalent of intellectual masturbation -- satisfying in an ego-stroking way, but an ethical void when it comes to our commonly shared humanity."
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post #17 of 26
Quote:
Originally posted by Aurora
I think the Bush administration should have gone after him 100% after 911 but instead they chased Saddam. They didnt focus on what was the target so now his political life is on the line with Kerry running neck and neck. More garbage from this garbage administration. this ranks right there with arresting people in washington for eating candybars on trains. We can do better then this. is this America or Nazi Germany?

Dude...get a grip with all due respect. Nazi Germany?
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I can only please one person per day.  Today is not your day.  Tomorrow doesn't look good either.  
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post #18 of 26
Quote:
Originally posted by giant
It's comforting to know that Bush admin puts the safety and security of Americans ahead of their political careers.

Yes. Clinton would never have manipulated the news cycle. I mean, all he did was take military action to grab the headlines!
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post #19 of 26
Quote:
Originally posted by SDW2001
Yes. Clinton would never have manipulated the news cycle. I mean, all he did was take military action to grab the headlines!

Unfortunately for your sensibilities, Bush isn't running against Clinton.
They spoke of the sayings and doings of their commander, the grand duke, and told stories of his kindness and irascibility.
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They spoke of the sayings and doings of their commander, the grand duke, and told stories of his kindness and irascibility.
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post #20 of 26
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally posted by SDW2001
Yes. Clinton would never have manipulated the news cycle. I mean, all he did was take military action to grab the headlines!

I'm assuming you're referring to his attacks on Afghanistan and the Sudan. It's interesting how people can criticize Clinton for both being too weak on bin Laden and for trying to bomb bin Laden.
post #21 of 26
Quote:
Originally posted by BRussell
I'm assuming you're referring to his attacks on Afghanistan and the Sudan. It's interesting how people can criticize Clinton for both being too weak on bin Laden and for trying to bomb bin Laden.

Well, if Clinton truly was offered OBL on a platter and OBL was wanted by the US, how can you not criticize Clinton? I only ask because I don't know the specifics of this (these?) alleged situation(s).

I'm neither demo or repub, so my post isn't Clinton bashing, I just want to know more about this. *Goes off on Google search*
post #22 of 26
Quote:
Originally posted by SDW2001
Yes. Clinton would never have manipulated the news cycle. I mean, all he did was take military action to grab the headlines!

He's referring to Operation Desert Fox. I'd suggest to him that he re-examine the timeline of events before that operation. Iraq kicked out inspectors at the end of October, and the attack was about to happen two weeks later when Iraq capitulated and let them back in. They were given one month to work, at which time they were to report on Iraq's cooperation. Nov 15 + 1 month = Dec 15. That crisis had been building all year (remember the Town Hall meeting in Feb?), and it was ridiculous then and still is now to suggest that the President should have let the domestic political climate dictate his national security decisions.
post #23 of 26
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally posted by Towel
He's referring to Operation Desert Fox.

I doubt it. Most people that talk about Clinton's use of the military for headlines talk about it when he bombed Afghanistan and Sudan right at the high point of the Lewinsky scandal.
post #24 of 26
Quote:
Originally posted by BRussell
I doubt it. Most people that talk about Clinton's use of the military for headlines talk about it when he bombed Afghanistan and Sudan right at the high point of the Lewinsky scandal.

Well, take your pick, I suppose:
Aug. 7, 1998: Embassy bombings
Aug. 17: Clinton's Lewinsky grand jury testimony
Aug. 20: Cruise missle attack on Sudan and Afghanistan
Aug. 20: Clinton provides DNA sample to Starr
Oct. 8: House approves impeachment inquiry
Oct. 31: Saddam kicks inspectors out of Iraq
Nov. 14/18: Bombing of Iraq averted when Iraq lets inspectors back in
Dec. 9: Articles of impeachment revealed
Dec. 15: Richard Butler reports to UNSC that Iraq is still blocking inspections
Dec. 16: UN inspectors withdrawn from Iraq
Dec. 16-19: Desert Fox bombing of Iraq
Dec. 19: Articles of impeachment approved by House
Jan, 7, 1999: Senate trial begins
Jan. 15: Racak massacre of Kosovar Albanians
Feb. 12: Senate acquits Clinton

It's patently ridiculous to think that the United States of America should have been paralyzed for a full six months by the Lewinsky nonsense, lest Clinton be seen as taking political advantage. He had to respond to the Africa bombings. He had to respond to the Iraqi provocations. He did not, however, ask the United Nations (!) to coordinate their inspection timeline with his impeachment proceedings. Desert Fox *should* have happened a month earlier, anyway, except that the UN bought Saddam's crocodile tears yet again. And if anything, the reaction to both Africa and Iraq should have been *much* stronger, and indeed Clinton has been widely criticized for it *not* being stronger, but he undoubtedly felt at least a little wary of starting a "real" war in the middle of his imepachment. That and the fact the American people had amply demonstrated that they had no stomach for an Iraq war in 1998 (remember the Albright Ohio debacle).

This is all horribly off-topic, except that I feel the need to inject a few facts into a debate that could easily degenerate into "he did it too". He did not, not even close, and it disgusts me that not only it is apparently true that THIS adminstration is consciously trying to manipulate foreign events for partisan gain, but they didn't even feel the need to back down when their plan became public! The hubris is almost suffocating.
post #25 of 26
There's a very good chance that bin Laden (or his corpse) is already in US custody and has been for awhile. Nothing about his whereabouts has been proven and authenticated since before 9-11, publicly that is. Osama bin Laden cuts an unusual figure, at 6' 5" tall, a face thats been circulating in the world's media for years, he requires regular kidney dialysis...(in a cave, right) and there's a $25 million reward on his head, dead or alive. The US has been after him for years, and it's been nearly 3 years since 9-11.

If bin Laden (in whatever form) is served up to the US people in the two months leading up to the election, then the next four years belongs to Bush. My guess is that at some point in the near future, we will wake to headlines screaming "bin Laden nabbed by USS marines in Afghanistan" or similar, and the Bush approval rating will hit 70% or so.

If he's already in US custody, no other issue will count for much in the run up to the election.
"We've never made the case, or argued the case that somehow Osama bin Laden was directly involved in 9/11. That evidence has never been forthcoming". VP Cheney, 3/29/2006. Interview by Tony Snow
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"We've never made the case, or argued the case that somehow Osama bin Laden was directly involved in 9/11. That evidence has never been forthcoming". VP Cheney, 3/29/2006. Interview by Tony Snow
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post #26 of 26
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally posted by Towel
Dec. 9: Articles of impeachment revealed
Dec. 15: Richard Butler reports to UNSC that Iraq is still blocking inspections
Dec. 16: UN inspectors withdrawn from Iraq
Dec. 16-19: Desert Fox bombing of Iraq
Dec. 19: Articles of impeachment approved by House
Jan, 7, 1999: Senate trial begins
Jan. 15: Racak massacre of Kosovar Albanians
Feb. 12: Senate acquits Clinton

I had forgotten Desert Fox was that close to the impeachment.
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