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The Floor is Falling Out From Under BC '04

post #1 of 7
8/16/04 at 10:07am
Thread Starter 
With political analysts like David Broder seeing the election turning in Kerry's favor, Zogby's latest national poll showing K/E at 50 and B/C at 43, oil prices at an all-time high and Wallstreet losing confidence in the economy, I can't see Bush pulling out of this tail spin...not after headlines like these:

Iraqi Conference on election Plan Sinks into Chaos

Crude Hits Record $46.90

Bush Economy, Viewed by Stock Market, Loses Investor Confidence

Fall in Job Growth Clouds Economy

Federal Budget Deficit Hits Record $395.8 Billion

Dollar Drops Versus Euro; US Trade Deficit Widens to Record

All this despite the media's complete partnership with the Bush Administration (Tax cuts pay for themselves! Deficit don't matter! Flowers and Candy!)

I'm going to step out on a limb here and predict that not only will John Kerry win the election, it will be a landslide of monumental proportions of which shockwaves will be felt on every corner of the country.

[note: all of this will change if Saudi Arabia attacks...err, umm, I mean Al Qaeda...attacks our country in late October.]
"The selfishness of Ayn Rand capitalism is the equivalent of intellectual masturbation -- satisfying in an ego-stroking way, but an ethical void when it comes to our commonly shared humanity."
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"The selfishness of Ayn Rand capitalism is the equivalent of intellectual masturbation -- satisfying in an ego-stroking way, but an ethical void when it comes to our commonly shared humanity."
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post #2 of 7
8/16/04 at 10:11am
I would suggest that you do a little look at the polling of the 2000 election and how it went back and forth.

Nick

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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post #3 of 7
8/16/04 at 10:21am
Thread Starter 
Paul Waldman, editor-in-chief of The Gadflyer has some interesting points about the same subject.

Quote:
As many analysts have pointed out, undecided voters tend to be more likely to break toward the challenger at the end of a presidential race. While every race is different, if you haven't made up your mind by now about which candidate you're going to vote for, it's probably because you don't like what Bush has done but Kerry hasn't yet convinced you to vote for him.

In a comment that became a symbol of liberals' disconnection from ordinary Americans, after the 1972 election New Yorker film critic Pauline Kael expressed shock that Richard Nixon had won re-election, because she didn't know a single person who had voted for him. But today, something different grips liberals, particularly those ensconced in enclaves like Manhattan, Madison, or San Francisco. Even though they live in an environment in which almost everyone is progressive, they believe that such places are few and far between, and the vast majority of Americans are conservatives whose values and political choices couldn't be more different from theirs.

But this suspicion is no more accurate than Kael's. In fact, America is full of liberals, and it's also full of a somewhat larger group: people who don't think George Bush should be re-elected. Could the election be as close as 2000? Anything is possible. But I wouldn't bet on it.

Neither would I.
"The selfishness of Ayn Rand capitalism is the equivalent of intellectual masturbation -- satisfying in an ego-stroking way, but an ethical void when it comes to our commonly shared humanity."
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"The selfishness of Ayn Rand capitalism is the equivalent of intellectual masturbation -- satisfying in an ego-stroking way, but an ethical void when it comes to our commonly shared humanity."
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post #4 of 7
8/16/04 at 10:52am
Quote:
Originally posted by trumptman
I would suggest that you do a little look at the polling of the 2000 election and how it went back and forth.

Nick

A very different situation. Back then we had a president who screwed up and lied about something he didn't need to.

So the new democratic contender suffered for it.

Now we have a president who seems to make unpopular decisions with a good deal of the voting public and a contender that is growing in popularity all the time.
Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
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Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
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post #5 of 7
8/16/04 at 11:28am
Quote:
Originally posted by jimmac
A very different situation. Back then we had a president who screwed up and lied about something he didn't need to.

So the new democratic contender suffered for it.

Now we have a president who seems to make unpopular decisions with a good deal of the voting public and a contender that is growing in popularity all the time.

He didn't suffer. He just didn't win the electoral college.

I go to Polling Reports and see polls breaking both ways but I also know that until Republicans have their convention, with a race as tight as this one is shown to be, that no one should call this race yet. We haven't even had any debates yet for goodness sakes.

Here's a nice link from 2000. CNN tracking poll

It shows pretty much the same trend as today yet we all know what happened.

What we have is a public a little confused about all the outrage being shoveled at them by the left and their accomplices in the media. When Clinton ran for re-election in 1996 his unemployment rate was 5.5% and of course then the economy was "great." Now people are being told 5.5% is terrible. But they probably don't feel terrible.

If I were a democrat at this stage, I would be a little terrified. Kerry, in many ways, appears to be an exact replay of Gore. Kerry is a good party guy. He goes to the right places, shakes the right hands, does what he should. On matters where he could pounce on Bush, he seems to muddle along with answers that seem more rhetorical or plans that basically amount to saying, I'm not Bush and I'll do better.

This is why Kerry hasn't taken many issues from Bush yet. If Kerry had anything that amounted to a clear plan he would do much better. I've said dozens of times that Clinton was the absolute master of this. Whether I disagreed with Clinton or not, his plan was clear.

Jimmac, and I mean this as honestly as I can. Tell me which tax cuts Kerry is going to roll back, and which he is going to keep. Tell me his timeline for Iraq and troop leaving, or action being taken. Tell me what types of programs and credits he is going to use to keep American jobs from being exported. If you can't articulate it, then who can? It is all platitudes. They may be nice platitudes that you readily agree with, but they are not a plan. Now on his site when you dig deep enough, you do find some hard numbers. (sometimes) However the reality is that Kerry never mentions those hard program points. He also never mentions anything he has done in the Senate.

Clinton had proposals you could clearly pitch. $1500 tax credit for the first two years of college. 100,000 officers on the street, etc. We could argue the numbers and program points, but at least he had points! Clinton also hit these points over and over again.

Kerry has had multiple shots at giving people a reason to vote for him. Just like Gore he gets muddled down and can't seem to project a clear plan. My guess is that this is probably because he believes America wouldn't vote for it.

Nick

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

Reply
post #6 of 7
8/16/04 at 12:09pm
I wouldn't be so optimistic about Kerry's place . . . when we have educated people, even on these boards, who think that O'Rielly's content-void yelling makes for good argument than you have a situation where people don't care about the issues, they don't care they only want to have their simplest and basest desires massaged by thick tongued brutes . . . .

I believe (fear?) that that situation is ubiquitous . . . whole segments of the population stopped reflection long ago, now they only want 'their side' to yell down criticism and critical thought.

Or, like in Naples' case, they now blame people who have been critical of the administrations failings for those very failings . . . they simply CAN NOT reason, and would rather have a glib 'entertainment-news-discussion' show tell them they are right, or simply listen to yelling about their own hardened and stubborn convictions.

Don't think that people don't like that idiot-yelling . . . they prefer that kind of take over difficult self-reflection

therefor, don't be too optimistic
"They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we."
--George W Bush

"Narrative is what starts to happen after eight minutes
--Franklin Miller.

"Nothing...

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"They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we."
--George W Bush

"Narrative is what starts to happen after eight minutes
--Franklin Miller.

"Nothing...

Reply
post #7 of 7
8/16/04 at 12:27pm
Quote:
Originally posted by trumptman
He didn't suffer. He just didn't win the electoral college.

I go to Polling Reports and see polls breaking both ways but I also know that until Republicans have their convention, with a race as tight as this one is shown to be, that no one should call this race yet. We haven't even had any debates yet for goodness sakes.

Here's a nice link from 2000. CNN tracking poll

It shows pretty much the same trend as today yet we all know what happened.

What we have is a public a little confused about all the outrage being shoveled at them by the left and their accomplices in the media. When Clinton ran for re-election in 1996 his unemployment rate was 5.5% and of course then the economy was "great." Now people are being told 5.5% is terrible. But they probably don't feel terrible.

If I were a democrat at this stage, I would be a little terrified. Kerry, in many ways, appears to be an exact replay of Gore. Kerry is a good party guy. He goes to the right places, shakes the right hands, does what he should. On matters where he could pounce on Bush, he seems to muddle along with answers that seem more rhetorical or plans that basically amount to saying, I'm not Bush and I'll do better.

This is why Kerry hasn't taken many issues from Bush yet. If Kerry had anything that amounted to a clear plan he would do much better. I've said dozens of times that Clinton was the absolute master of this. Whether I disagreed with Clinton or not, his plan was clear.

Jimmac, and I mean this as honestly as I can. Tell me which tax cuts Kerry is going to roll back, and which he is going to keep. Tell me his timeline for Iraq and troop leaving, or action being taken. Tell me what types of programs and credits he is going to use to keep American jobs from being exported. If you can't articulate it, then who can? It is all platitudes. They may be nice platitudes that you readily agree with, but they are not a plan. Now on his site when you dig deep enough, you do find some hard numbers. (sometimes) However the reality is that Kerry never mentions those hard program points. He also never mentions anything he has done in the Senate.

Clinton had proposals you could clearly pitch. $1500 tax credit for the first two years of college. 100,000 officers on the street, etc. We could argue the numbers and program points, but at least he had points! Clinton also hit these points over and over again.

Kerry has had multiple shots at giving people a reason to vote for him. Just like Gore he gets muddled down and can't seem to project a clear plan. My guess is that this is probably because he believes America wouldn't vote for it.

Nick

Don't kid yourself ( or me ) Bush was a fixed winner after Clinton admitted he lied. He may have not been popular but neither was Gore ( both milktoast candidates ) but it was enough to cost the election. I knew that when I saw Clinton on TV admitting his guilt.

The rest is pretty much your opinion. About the employment rate you forget all the good paying jobs that were lost that haven't been replaced. Is easy to compare when you aren't looking at the burger " manufacturers " out there.

By the way anybody could do better than that selfserving monkey in the whitehouse now. I would love to see a debate between Bush and Kerry!


Here's a little something to chew on :

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/...pet/index.html



As far as Kerry's plans in detail tell me did Bush have all his plans clearly outlined before the election? More importantly did he follow them?
Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
Reply
Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
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