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Post RNC: Bush Bounce

post #1 of 45
Thread Starter 
I'm predicting a huge Bush bounce in the polls at the completion of the RNC. Based on historical data and current events, I believe we'll see a 10 to 15 point bounce for the president.

What do you guys think?
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post #2 of 45
They shouldn't call them bounces, because a bounce, by nature, goes up but then back down. Unless that is what they refer to when they talk about bounces, in which case, it's a non-issue
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orange you just glad?
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post #3 of 45
Why would you expect numbers so high?
"[Saddam's] a bad guy. He's a terrible guy and he should go. But I don't think it's worth 800 troops dead, 4500 wounded -- some of them terribly -- $200 billion of our treasury and counting, and...
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"[Saddam's] a bad guy. He's a terrible guy and he should go. But I don't think it's worth 800 troops dead, 4500 wounded -- some of them terribly -- $200 billion of our treasury and counting, and...
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post #4 of 45
I'm with Northgate. Massive, massive bounce. Anything less would be a huge disaster for the Republicans.
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They spoke of the sayings and doings of their commander, the grand duke, and told stories of his kindness and irascibility.
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post #5 of 45
I'm predicting 2-3% depending upon the poll.

Nick

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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post #6 of 45
Quote:
Originally posted by addabox
I'm with Northgate. Massive, massive bounce. Anything less would be a huge disaster for the Republicans.



I see where you guys are going with this...
post #7 of 45
Quote:
Originally posted by addabox
I'm with Northgate. Massive, massive bounce. Anything less would be a huge disaster for the Republicans.

Yeah . . . unfortunatelyt its true . . . with Schwartzy talking its a bust . . . their gonna bounce at LEAST 10% . . . virtually by their bootstraps . . .

"They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we."
--George W Bush

"Narrative is what starts to happen after eight minutes
--Franklin Miller.

"Nothing...

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"They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we."
--George W Bush

"Narrative is what starts to happen after eight minutes
--Franklin Miller.

"Nothing...

Reply
post #8 of 45
Thread Starter 
Unfortunately, a two to three percent bounce will be considered a failure of massive proportions for an incumbant president who enjoys the benefits of a massive war chest and the prestige of the presidency. A three percent bounce doesn't distance himself enough from Kerry and is therefore disasterous.

However, I believe there is a massive contingent out there that wants "reassurance" from Bush in order to vote for him and they will drink up the warm-fuzzies the convention is designed to convey.

I still say he'll enjoy a huge bounce due to the warm-fuzzies.
"The selfishness of Ayn Rand capitalism is the equivalent of intellectual masturbation -- satisfying in an ego-stroking way, but an ethical void when it comes to our commonly shared humanity."
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"The selfishness of Ayn Rand capitalism is the equivalent of intellectual masturbation -- satisfying in an ego-stroking way, but an ethical void when it comes to our commonly shared humanity."
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post #9 of 45
Quote:
Originally posted by Northgate
Unfortunately, a two to three percent bounce will be considered a failure of massive proportions for an incumbant president who enjoys the benefits of a massive war chest and the prestige of the presidency. A three percent bounce doesn't distance himself enough from Kerry and is therefore disasterous.

However, I believe there is a massive contingent out there that wants "reassurance" from Bush in order to vote for him and they will drink up the warm-fuzzies the convention is designed to convey.

I still say he'll enjoy a huge bounce due to the warm-fuzzies.

I disagree. There are no Bushcrats to swing his way like Reagan had in the 80's. The country is 45%, 45%, 10% with the latter undecided. The last poll I saw had the 10% down to 5% or so thus the bounce will be small. This election will be decide by the party that can get the largest number of voters to get off theri lazy, apathetic asses and actually vote. The polls wont become important till October anyway IMO. Wait 'till the first debate.
"[Saddam's] a bad guy. He's a terrible guy and he should go. But I don't think it's worth 800 troops dead, 4500 wounded -- some of them terribly -- $200 billion of our treasury and counting, and...
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"[Saddam's] a bad guy. He's a terrible guy and he should go. But I don't think it's worth 800 troops dead, 4500 wounded -- some of them terribly -- $200 billion of our treasury and counting, and...
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post #10 of 45
Quote:
Originally posted by trumptman
I'm predicting 2-3% depending upon the poll.

Nick

How convenient. Since 2-3% is within the margin of error (two sigma) of almost all polls, your 'prediction' is not falsifiable.
post #11 of 45
Quote:
Originally posted by Northgate
I'm predicting a huge Bush bounce in the polls at the completion of the RNC. Based on historical data and current events, I believe we'll see a 10 to 15 point bounce for the president.

What do you guys think?

I can't decide if you really believe this, or if you're trying to play the same game the Republicans tried to play on the Democrats: hype the bounce, then when (as you really expected all along) there's very little bounce, crow about how bad a sign the small bounce is.

I think there's going to be very little bounce for Bush for the same reason there was very little for Kerry -- this is an election where most voters have already made up there minds, and there's not much swing left to swing around. It's going to take a major event, not an staged contrivance like a convention, to change any substantial number of minds at this point.
We were once so close to heaven
Peter came out and gave us medals
Declaring us the nicest of the damned -- They Might Be Giants          See the stars at skyviewcafe.com
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We were once so close to heaven
Peter came out and gave us medals
Declaring us the nicest of the damned -- They Might Be Giants          See the stars at skyviewcafe.com
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post #12 of 45
Quote:
Originally posted by Existence
How convenient. Since 2-3% is within the margin of error (two sigma) of almost all polls, your 'prediction' is not falsifiable.

Sure it's falsifiable. If Bush got a 10% bounce (or 10% anti-bounce... that'd be nice) Trumptman's prediction would clearly be wrong.

My guess is for something small like 2-3% as well. Bad enough for Kerry, however, since I think the SBVF"T" BS has knocked 2-3% off Kerry's position in the past couple of weeks. Fortunately, all of this is very volatile stuff. Whatever convention bounce Bush gets will probably evaporate soon enough.
We were once so close to heaven
Peter came out and gave us medals
Declaring us the nicest of the damned -- They Might Be Giants          See the stars at skyviewcafe.com
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We were once so close to heaven
Peter came out and gave us medals
Declaring us the nicest of the damned -- They Might Be Giants          See the stars at skyviewcafe.com
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post #13 of 45
Quote:
Originally posted by shetline
I can't decide if you really believe this, or if you're trying to play the same game the Republicans tried to play on the Democrats: hype the bounce, then when (as you really expected all along) there's very little bounce, crow about how bad a sign the small bounce is.
.

ssshhhh
"They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we."
--George W Bush

"Narrative is what starts to happen after eight minutes
--Franklin Miller.

"Nothing...

Reply
"They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we."
--George W Bush

"Narrative is what starts to happen after eight minutes
--Franklin Miller.

"Nothing...

Reply
post #14 of 45
This topic is just as stupid as it was before the DNC.
proud resident of a failed state
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proud resident of a failed state
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post #15 of 45
Thread Starter 
Looks like I was right.

Times Poll shows 11 point bounce.

Bush 52%
Kerry 41%

Ouch.
"The selfishness of Ayn Rand capitalism is the equivalent of intellectual masturbation -- satisfying in an ego-stroking way, but an ethical void when it comes to our commonly shared humanity."
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"The selfishness of Ayn Rand capitalism is the equivalent of intellectual masturbation -- satisfying in an ego-stroking way, but an ethical void when it comes to our commonly shared humanity."
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post #16 of 45
Hopefully just an outlier. We'll get a more complete picture when the polls come out after Labor Day.
post #17 of 45
Come election day:

Bush 55
Kerry 45

Looks like we are on our way.
"A more sensitive and caring Common man for 2005"
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post #18 of 45
Zogby puts things in perspective
Quote:
So the battle is now engaged. I have written before about the metaphor of the bouncing rubber ball. Take a rubber ball and bounce it as hard as you can. Then the laws of physics take over. The President has gotten three preceding bounces each one shorter in height and duration. I think this week is the fourth bounce of the ball: this time only into the higher forties and perhaps only lasting a week or so.


Remember that two weeks after the Democratic Convention of 2000, Newsweeks cover story asked if Al Gore could be stopped. There will be leads and drops for both candidates and Kerry has to sharpen his message. At the same time, the economy is still the top issue and Fridays unemployment figures will give us a hint as to whether the President will continue on the offensive or go back on the defensive.
post #19 of 45
Quote:
Originally posted by Common Man
Come election day:

Bush 55
Kerry 45

Looks like we are on our way.



post #20 of 45
Bush got an 11-to 13 point bounce. That is honestly more than I was expecting. I don't think Gore ever held that kind of lead.

http://www.gallup.com/content/?ci=1216

Bush held a bigger lead and it went away, though. That's interesting.
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post #21 of 45
Quote:
Originally posted by SDW2001
Bush got an 11-to 13 point bounce. That is honestly more than I was expecting. I don't think Gore ever held that kind of lead.

http://www.gallup.com/content/?ci=1216

Bush held a bigger lead and it went away, though. That's interesting.

Maybe he will win all 50 states after all.
post #22 of 45
Quote:
Originally posted by BRussell
Maybe he will win all 50 states after all.

Or maybe that QUESTION was posed at a different time in his Presidency.
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post #23 of 45
Quote:
Originally posted by SDW2001
Or maybe that QUESTION was posed at a different time in his Presidency.


Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
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Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
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post #24 of 45
Presidential Tracking Poll: Bush-Kerry

Updated Daily by Noon Eastern Election 2004

Presidential Ballot

Bush 49.1%
Kerry 44.7%
Other 2.5%
Not Sure 3.7%
RasmussenReports.com



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saturday September 04, 2004--For the third straight day, the Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush with 49% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 45%. The Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern.

Before today, neither candidate had held a four-point lead for three consecutive days since Kerry wrapped up the nomination on Super Tuesday. The Tracking Poll is reported on a three-day rolling average basis, so a lead that lasts longer than three days becomes especially significant. Only one-third of the interviews for today's report were completed after the President's speech on Thursday night.

The President continues to enjoy a modest Convention bounce. His Job Approval remain at its highest level since April and voters now view him a bit more favorably than John Kerry. Data provided to Premium Members shows that in the key Battleground States, perceptions of the President improved each day of the Convention.

By way of comparison, Kerry was ahead by 3-points on the morning following his Acceptance Speech in Boston. His lead fell to a single point by the Monday following the Convention, but the Democrat generally remained ahead by 2 or 3 points for a couple of weeks following his party's Convention.
Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
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Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
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post #25 of 45
Quote:
Originally posted by jimmac
Presidential Tracking Poll: Bush-Kerry

Updated Daily by Noon Eastern Election 2004

Presidential Ballot

Bush 49.1%
Kerry 44.7%
Other 2.5%
Not Sure 3.7%
RasmussenReports.com



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saturday September 04, 2004--For the third straight day, the Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush with 49% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 45%. The Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern.

Before today, neither candidate had held a four-point lead for three consecutive days since Kerry wrapped up the nomination on Super Tuesday. The Tracking Poll is reported on a three-day rolling average basis, so a lead that lasts longer than three days becomes especially significant. Only one-third of the interviews for today's report were completed after the President's speech on Thursday night.

The President continues to enjoy a modest Convention bounce. His Job Approval remain at its highest level since April and voters now view him a bit more favorably than John Kerry. Data provided to Premium Members shows that in the key Battleground States, perceptions of the President improved each day of the Convention.

By way of comparison, Kerry was ahead by 3-points on the morning following his Acceptance Speech in Boston. His lead fell to a single point by the Monday following the Convention, but the Democrat generally remained ahead by 2 or 3 points for a couple of weeks following his party's Convention.

Sorry jimmac, we have two slightly left leaning polls that say otherwise. Nice try.
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post #26 of 45
The American people see through the Kerry/Edwards nonsense. Bush will win this election big. You are fooling yourselves to think otherwise.

Moe L
"A more sensitive and caring Common man for 2005"
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post #27 of 45
Quote:
Originally posted by Common Man
The American people see through the Kerry/Edwards nonsense. Bush will win this election big. You are fooling yourselves to think otherwise.

Moe L

Do you see through the Bush nonsense?

If you honestly think that any of these politicians are better than the others, just say aye.
"In a republic, voters may vote for the leaders they want, but they get the leaders they deserve."
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post #28 of 45
Why are we only hearing about the time/newsweek polls?

http://www.electoral-vote.com/
"[Saddam's] a bad guy. He's a terrible guy and he should go. But I don't think it's worth 800 troops dead, 4500 wounded -- some of them terribly -- $200 billion of our treasury and counting, and...
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"[Saddam's] a bad guy. He's a terrible guy and he should go. But I don't think it's worth 800 troops dead, 4500 wounded -- some of them terribly -- $200 billion of our treasury and counting, and...
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post #29 of 45
Quote:
Originally posted by SDW2001
Sorry jimmac, we have two slightly left leaning polls that say otherwise. Nice try.

What does "slightly left-leaning" mean?
post #30 of 45
Quote:
Originally posted by ShawnJ
What does "slightly left-leaning" mean?

Meaning that they usually tend to favor the Democratic candidate. That's just anecdotal, though.
I can only please one person per day.  Today is not your day.  Tomorrow doesn't look good either.  
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post #31 of 45
Quote:
Originally posted by faust9
Why are we only hearing about the time/newsweek polls?

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Because popular vote polls are usually what we talk about. I've seen that site though. I'm not convinced of it's accuracy (more speciffically, it seems to lag time-wise).

Not a bad site though.
I can only please one person per day.  Today is not your day.  Tomorrow doesn't look good either.  
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post #32 of 45
Quote:
Originally posted by SDW2001
Because popular vote polls are usually what we talk about. I've seen that site though. I'm not convinced of it's accuracy (more speciffically, it seems to lag time-wise).

Not a bad site though.

Zogby is a popular poll and it doesn't show the huge bounce. Why are we only hearing about the Time/Newseek Poll?

Leger is a large poll and a Gallup member.

Gallup Releases its stats on tuesday so we'll see just how big the 'bounce' really was I guess.

The "Liberal Media" myth is just that--a myth. This is proof of that because a balance presentation of poll statistics has not been presented by the media.

Take a look at this Good state-by-state information.
"[Saddam's] a bad guy. He's a terrible guy and he should go. But I don't think it's worth 800 troops dead, 4500 wounded -- some of them terribly -- $200 billion of our treasury and counting, and...
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"[Saddam's] a bad guy. He's a terrible guy and he should go. But I don't think it's worth 800 troops dead, 4500 wounded -- some of them terribly -- $200 billion of our treasury and counting, and...
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post #33 of 45
Quote:
Originally posted by SDW2001
Sorry jimmac, we have two slightly left leaning polls that say otherwise. Nice try.

Whatever! Just wait until the debates.

Let's see if Dubbya can form a whole sentence!



OUT THE DOOR IN 2004!
Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
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Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
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post #34 of 45
Quote:
Originally posted by jimmac
Whatever! Just wait until the debates.

Let's see if Dubbya can form a whole sentence!

I wish that this mattered. I have a bad feeling that it won't. Bush came across as a bumbling idiot during the 2000 debates, and that didn't seem to matter then. What did we hear about on the news? That Al Gore sighed too much!?

I have little doubt that Kerry will completely trounce Bush when it comes to answering questions clearly and showing a good grasp of policy. Bush will stumble and mumble through lightweight recitations of folksy aphorisms and posturing about standing tall, being tough, being proud to be Americans.

In the minds of many American voters, this will amount to Bush "winning" the debates. Authentic Americans™ don't like "know it alls" (i.e. anyone smarter than they are who doesn't bend over backwards to hide any sign of having a brain).

Showing that you know more about what you're talking about than your opponent -- which oddly enough, one might think winning a debate would be about -- would just mean you're being insufferable and smug and condescending. It's much better to avoid policy details, facts, analysis, and just stick to expressing "firm resolve" and "faith in the American people", etc., etc., ad naseum.
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Peter came out and gave us medals
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post #35 of 45
Quote:
Originally posted by shetline
I wish that this mattered. I have a bad feeling that it won't. Bush came across as a bumbling idiot during the 2000 debates, and that didn't seem to matter then. What did we hear about on the news? That Al Gore sighed too much!?

I have little doubt that Kerry will completely trounce Bush when it comes to answering questions clearly and showing a good grasp of policy. Bush will stumble and mumble through lightweight recitations of folksy aphorisms and posturing about standing tall, being tough, being proud to be Americans.

In the minds of many American voters, this will amount to Bush "winning" the debates. Authentic Americans™ don't like "know it alls" (i.e. anyone smarter than they are who doesn't bend over backwards to hide any sign of having a brain).

Showing that you know more about what you're talking about than your opponent -- which oddly enough, one might think winning a debate would be about -- would just mean you're being insufferable and smug and condescending. It's much better to avoid policy details, facts, analysis, and just stick to expressing "firm resolve" and "faith in the American people", etc., etc., ad naseum.

Yes but it's different now. The reason is Bush has a history to explain. The history of the last 4 years. There's plenty of material there to dig into. I have a feeling Bush will try to dodge the debates somehow. He knows he stands a very good chance of looking very bad if Kerry just asks the right questions. Given the way he's been I think Kerry just might.
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post #36 of 45
Quote:
Originally posted by jimmac
Yes but it's different now. The reason is Bush has a history to explain. The history of the last 4 years. There's plenty of material there to dig into. I have a feeling Bush will try to dodge the debates somehow. He knows he stands a very good chance of looking very bad if Kerry just asks the right questions. Given the way he's been I think Kerry just might.

or Kerry will just avoid answering questions and talk his way around everything.
post #37 of 45
Quote:
Originally posted by applenut
or Kerry will just avoid answering questions and talk his way around everything.

Might want to take a peak outside the right wing media bunker. It's a pretty day and the birds are singing.
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post #38 of 45
Quote:
Originally posted by applenut
or Kerry will just avoid answering questions and talk his way around everything.


Here's why Bush may not want to take part in the debates.


http://news.independent.co.uk/world/...p?story=557746



Quite the little eye opener isn't it Applenut?

You can say what you want about the site leaning left or right but the facts presented there remain the same.


OUT THE DOOR IN 2004!
Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
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Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
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post #39 of 45
From yesterday :

-----------------------------------------------------------
" Presidential Tracking Poll: Bush-Kerry

Updated Daily by Noon Eastern Election 2004

Presidential Ballot

Bush 47.6%
Kerry 46.4%
Other 2.6%
Not Sure 3.4%
RasmussenReports.com



Sunday September 05, 2004--The Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush with 48% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 46%. The Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern. Two-thirds of the interview for today's report were completed after the President's speech on Thursday night.

Over the past nine days, Bush has been ahead eight times and the candidates have been tied once. Senator Kerry has not been ahead in the Tracking Poll since August 23.

Data released yesterday shows that President Bush has taken the lead in 16-Battleground States and that most Americans now expect him to be re-elected. From an ideological perspective, 66% say the President is politically conservative while 46% say Senator Kerry is a liberal. Forty-four percent (44%) now say the country is moving in the right direction while 52% say we have gotten off on the wrong track.

The economic confidence of American Consumers and Investors has improved slightly since Friday's report on employment and job creation.




Today, at 3:00 p.m. Eastern, we released favorability ratings showing that Bush fans love Zell Miller while Kerry fans hate him., We also provided a brief analysis of the Bush Bounce in the polls.

At 5:30 p.m. Eastern, we will release our first post-Convention state polling data. Updates will be provided today for Minnesota and California. New data for one or two states will be released on the free portion of our web site every day at 5:00 p.m. Eastern for the rest of Election 2004.

During the final two months of the campaign, Premium Members will receive daily tracking updates for Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina. We also provide Premium Members with weekly updates for 15 states, key Senate races, and a Daily Snapshot of the race and related issues.

Our pre-Convention Electoral College projection shows Bush with 213 Electoral Votes to 207 for Kerry. The magic number needed for victory is 270 Electoral Votes.

This latest projection is based upon a series of state election polls released this weekend from California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio. Alabama, Arkansas, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin "

-----------------------------------------------------------


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Pres...cking_Poll.htm







OUT THE DOOR IN 2004!
Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
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post #40 of 45
Go figure. If you do the poll during the convention (the Time/nesweek poll for instance) you get artifically high numbers who would've thunk. When you poll afterwards, the artifically high stats come more in line at 2ish percent. http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/...oll/index.html

Wait until tuesday for the Gallup poll.
"[Saddam's] a bad guy. He's a terrible guy and he should go. But I don't think it's worth 800 troops dead, 4500 wounded -- some of them terribly -- $200 billion of our treasury and counting, and...
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"[Saddam's] a bad guy. He's a terrible guy and he should go. But I don't think it's worth 800 troops dead, 4500 wounded -- some of them terribly -- $200 billion of our treasury and counting, and...
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