I think it's time to sit down and try to be reasonable about the hype Apple is generating over Macworld this year. I admit to being excited (ok.. i admit to almost peeing my pants when i checked apple.com this morning) but i've also been around long enough to know that hyperbole is simply Apple's style. Apple will release new hardware.. that's a given, but let's take a look at what is possible, and what is unlikely considering Apple's track record.
Here are a few 'historical' examples that spring to mind:
In May 1998, the iMac was introduced, a neat all in one G3 Mac for a reasonable price. Apple actually shut down their site for a few days, with only a cryptic message on the front likening the upcoming announcement to some of the pivotal events of the 20th century. Think about it... a new, cute, repackaged PowerMac G3 gets Apple dot com put under wraps and is compared to the Wright Brothers first flight? Sure, it was a big success, but it certainly didn't change the course of history.
More recently, Apple generated lots of hype surrounding what was described as a 'groundbreaking' new digital device. Teaser invitations were sent to the press, and Mac fans around the world waited with bated breath. And then Steve Jobs unveiled... an MP3 player. Sure, it was a really nice MP3 player, but from the buildup, people were practically expecting a pocket sized time machine.
The lesson? Apple's hype is always hype. Hype is short for Hyperbole, which is a literary term denoting dramatic exaggeration.
Now, just because we have another hype situation on our hands doesn't mean we can't glean some information from it. This is bigger hype than the iPod introduction, but arguably less than for the iMac, at least so far. So we should temper our expectations accordingly. Apple and Steve Jobs try to make even the most mundane announcements sound like something really special. iCards, in Jan 2000, was demoed as if it was something great, even though everyone, including Steve himself, knew it was just filler for a keynote without new hardware to show.
Now let's put Apple's recent teaser statements through the de-hyping engine, the anti-RDF machine, if you will. Here's the first one:
To paraphrase:
[quote] "This Macworld will be big, even by our standards"<hr></blockquote>
Ok. What are Apple's standards? The RDF/hype version says that "Every Macworld is BIG BIG BIG!" The truth is that in some keynotes one or maybe two new hardware announcements are made, and in some, there's zilch. The truth is that the biggest thing so far has pretty much always been a few evolutionary announcements, such as the G3-->G4, new portable designs, etc. So, the upcoming Macworld should be about as big as that, or maybe just a little bit better. But not too much different. Faster G4's, probably. Insanely faster chips? No. New iMac with LCD? Quite possible. Dual G4s inside? No. New iBooks? Probably not, or a clockspeed increase at most. New Powerbooks? Unlikely.
Here's number two:
(paraphrasing again)
[quote]"Prepare to be blown away"<hr></blockquote>
Would they actually say "Prepare to be fairly happy"? This is marketing speak, and in marketing speak, every statement is exaggerated by several orders of magnitude. 'Blown away' is commonly used to describe the state of being reasonably satisfied. They might introduce a new digital hub device.. something like the iPod. It will be pretty cool, but many people will also be disappointed.
And for today's teaser, the one that really got me excited:
[quote]"Beyond the rumor sites. Way beyond"<hr></blockquote>
Let's put that through the de-hyping machine, and assume that the statement is exaggerated to the max. What could it really mean, then? Well, it basically means that they are going to announce something that has not been on the rumor radar. It does NOT mean that it is going to be better than the rumors. It might be hardware, or it might not. The rumor sites have been talking about fast CPUs, but this statement doesn't mean that they are going to release even faster CPUs. It could, in the worst case, be some pretty mundane new iTools which weren't dreamed up by MOSR or some other site. Also, as many have pointed out already, it almost certainly refers to the rumor sites' front pages, not to the wild speculation in the forums.
Anyway, i wrote this because it seemed that Apple's hype was being swallowed with a hefty dose of wild optimism by a lot of people here. Remember, it's hype, generated by a marketing department. If something is a 4/10, they'll hype it as 9/10. So remember to subtract that 5/10 if you want an idea of the truth.
Cheers,
robo
[ 01-02-2002: Message edited by: robo ]</p>
Here are a few 'historical' examples that spring to mind:
In May 1998, the iMac was introduced, a neat all in one G3 Mac for a reasonable price. Apple actually shut down their site for a few days, with only a cryptic message on the front likening the upcoming announcement to some of the pivotal events of the 20th century. Think about it... a new, cute, repackaged PowerMac G3 gets Apple dot com put under wraps and is compared to the Wright Brothers first flight? Sure, it was a big success, but it certainly didn't change the course of history.
More recently, Apple generated lots of hype surrounding what was described as a 'groundbreaking' new digital device. Teaser invitations were sent to the press, and Mac fans around the world waited with bated breath. And then Steve Jobs unveiled... an MP3 player. Sure, it was a really nice MP3 player, but from the buildup, people were practically expecting a pocket sized time machine.
The lesson? Apple's hype is always hype. Hype is short for Hyperbole, which is a literary term denoting dramatic exaggeration.
Now, just because we have another hype situation on our hands doesn't mean we can't glean some information from it. This is bigger hype than the iPod introduction, but arguably less than for the iMac, at least so far. So we should temper our expectations accordingly. Apple and Steve Jobs try to make even the most mundane announcements sound like something really special. iCards, in Jan 2000, was demoed as if it was something great, even though everyone, including Steve himself, knew it was just filler for a keynote without new hardware to show.
Now let's put Apple's recent teaser statements through the de-hyping engine, the anti-RDF machine, if you will. Here's the first one:
To paraphrase:
[quote] "This Macworld will be big, even by our standards"<hr></blockquote>
Ok. What are Apple's standards? The RDF/hype version says that "Every Macworld is BIG BIG BIG!" The truth is that in some keynotes one or maybe two new hardware announcements are made, and in some, there's zilch. The truth is that the biggest thing so far has pretty much always been a few evolutionary announcements, such as the G3-->G4, new portable designs, etc. So, the upcoming Macworld should be about as big as that, or maybe just a little bit better. But not too much different. Faster G4's, probably. Insanely faster chips? No. New iMac with LCD? Quite possible. Dual G4s inside? No. New iBooks? Probably not, or a clockspeed increase at most. New Powerbooks? Unlikely.
Here's number two:
(paraphrasing again)
[quote]"Prepare to be blown away"<hr></blockquote>
Would they actually say "Prepare to be fairly happy"? This is marketing speak, and in marketing speak, every statement is exaggerated by several orders of magnitude. 'Blown away' is commonly used to describe the state of being reasonably satisfied. They might introduce a new digital hub device.. something like the iPod. It will be pretty cool, but many people will also be disappointed.
And for today's teaser, the one that really got me excited:
[quote]"Beyond the rumor sites. Way beyond"<hr></blockquote>
Let's put that through the de-hyping machine, and assume that the statement is exaggerated to the max. What could it really mean, then? Well, it basically means that they are going to announce something that has not been on the rumor radar. It does NOT mean that it is going to be better than the rumors. It might be hardware, or it might not. The rumor sites have been talking about fast CPUs, but this statement doesn't mean that they are going to release even faster CPUs. It could, in the worst case, be some pretty mundane new iTools which weren't dreamed up by MOSR or some other site. Also, as many have pointed out already, it almost certainly refers to the rumor sites' front pages, not to the wild speculation in the forums.
Anyway, i wrote this because it seemed that Apple's hype was being swallowed with a hefty dose of wild optimism by a lot of people here. Remember, it's hype, generated by a marketing department. If something is a 4/10, they'll hype it as 9/10. So remember to subtract that 5/10 if you want an idea of the truth.
Cheers,
robo
[ 01-02-2002: Message edited by: robo ]</p>
